2010 NBA Daily Report Results
(01/01/2011 - 03/15/2011)
03/16/2011 - Present
10/26/2010 - 12/31/2010
Wednesday 03/15: +1.37 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)
Boston -10 / Indiana 7:05 ET 1.50 Units
Boston 92 Indiana 80 Winner
Monday 03/13: +1.94 Units (Volume 4.75 Units)
Over 209 Oklahoma City / Washington 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
OKC 116 Washington 89 Lose
Memphis -5.5 / LA Clippers 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Memphis 105 LA Clippers 82 Winner
Tough Scheduling spot for the Clippers... Last leg of a 8 day 5 city Eastern swing and their 3rd in 4 nights. Memphis a bit more rested and will be looking to get back on track after losing back to back games: a close one at home against the Knicks (108-110) on the 9th and Saturday in Miami where the Grizzlies got stomped by the Heat by 33 (85-118). Sure, LA has been playing their best ball of the season as they're 3-1 SU & ATS on this road trip including beating Boston on the 9th and back to back wins before hitting the highway over Denver & Houston. So with already having a very successful trip win or lose tonight and the anticipation of getting home, we'll side with the home team here...
Sacramento -1 / Golden State 10:05 ET 2.00 Units
Sacramento 129 Golden State 119 Winner
Golden State fresh off of two big home wins... Orlando on Friday & Minnesota last night. We say The Minnesota win was big because the Warriors broke Kevin Love's double-double streak. Realize the feat that Love accomplished... this hasn't been done since the leagues merged.... AND GS held the Wolves to 77 points overall AND they look forward to flying back home after tonight's game to host the Mavs on Wednesday. And let's face it, the Kings aren't that bad at home....
Sunday 03/13: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Boston -8.5 / Milwaukee 6:05 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 87 Milwaukee 56 Winner
Perfect set up here for us as we're rolling over our profit (and a little more) from last night's easy winner ON these Bucks at home over the Sixers. We cited in that game that the Sixers were in a vulnerable let down spot having just beat Boston the night before and having to play a rested Bucks team on the road.... So now here we are with Milwaukee playing the Celtics after just blowing out the Sixers. Not the same "let down" scenario, but when an average NBA team blows out an opponent (Milw 102-74 last night) and has to play the next night against an elite team on the road, it's not a good spot. Of course the +8.5 seems fat which is deterring many from taking the plunge, especially since the Celtics are off of two straight up losses (Philly and the Clippers) and four straight ATS losses, but it's not stopping us. The 8.5 won't seem so big when Boston's up by 30 in the 4th quarter.
It's not only the fact that the Bucks won by 28, it's how they did it. Milwaukee held the Sixers to just 74 points on less than 40% shooting and Milwaukee shot 53% themselves. So couple the fact that holding a team down like that takes tremendous energy (which is very difficult to repeat on the tail end of a back to back) with the fact that shooting above 50% from the field usually comes right down, and you have the recipe for disaster for this road team...
Saturday 03/12: +3.19 Units (Volume 3.50 Units)
New Orleans -9.5 / Sacramento 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
New Orleans 115 Sacramento 103 Winner
Kings should be running on empty here as this is their 3rd game in 4 nights, but more important is the 2 battles Sacramento fought in the last 3 days. Wednesday the Kings hosted Orlando and led outright for most of the game but were outscored by 13 in the 4th quarter thus losing by 4 (102-106) but covering the hefty +12. Then last night Sacramento travelled to San Antonio and put forth another competitive outing hanging in the entire game losing by just 5 in the end and again easily covering a double digit (+10) spot. It's not easy for an inferior team to play the leagues elite close, so to do so twice in 48 hours and then have to play again the very next night spells doom. This is a very vulnerable spot for the road team. Don't get sucked into the line trickery... the fact that Sac is getting just about the same points as they were last night in San Antonio (+11.5). Kings should fall hard tonight in the Big Easy to a rested Hornets squad seeking revenge for their late January loss in Sacramento.
Milwaukee -2 / Philadelphia 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Milkwaukee 102 Philadelphia 74 Winner
We'll play the letdown angle here. Although the Sixers were only getting +2 last night at home from Boston, it's still a feat to beat the Cetics under any circumstances. Lots of talk about how improved Philly is (7-2 SU since the break and 10-4 SU leading up to the break), but take a closer look and you'll see that they really haven't beaten anyone. In fact, out of those 17 wins, the only "real" teams they beat were Denver, San Antonio & New York. Of course it's not their fault about who they played, but just saying not to read too far into their "improvement". Bucks coming off of 2 days rest (3 if you count the fat that they played the Cave last). Rested home team very cheap tonight...
Friday 03/10: +0.12 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
NJ Nets +2.5 / LA Clippers 7:05 ET 1.50 Units
NJ Nets 102 LA Clippers 98 Winner
Atlanta +7.5 / Chicago 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 76 Chicago 94 Lose
Thursday 03/10: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Dallas -5 / NY Knicks 9:35 ET 2.00 Units
Dallas 127 NY Knicks 109 Winner
Dallas has now failed to cover their last 4 games (2-2 SU), and we've gone against them in all 4... We told everyone how the Mavs have been putting up unbelievable numbers. Going into their ATS loss at Indiana on 3/04, Dallas was shooting well above 50% as a whole since the break and were on an eight game winning streak since 02/12 with an average margin of victory of 10.4 during that stretch. Those numbers were ripe to come crashing back down to earth, but because of such an unreal run, the linemaker had no choice but to inflate the lines thus creating some real nice value. We also went on to say during these last 4 Dallas ATS losses that this is something that must be anticipated acted upon swiftly if you want to cash in because just as fast as they go cold, elite teams can turn it around on a dime and get red hot again before you know what hit you. So the casual player surveying the situation after the fact (tonight's game vs the Knicks) sees the trend of Dallas hitting a bad spot and are all attempting to get on the bandwagon. Well, those looking to start fading the Mavs now are sitting ducks.... you missed the boat. The linemaker has made his adjustment and the public has helped tonight's number out another two points (down to -5 from the opener of -7). So those playing NY tonight are taking the worst of it in the line and have nothing to show for this recent 4-0 ATS go against. We on the other and have pocketed a cool 6.83 Units (three 2 Units and one 1.50 unit) and are risking another 2 units tonight ON the Mavs looking for them to return to form enough to cover this moderate number (last March Dallas was -10.5 at home against the Knicks. Sure NY has improved, but enough to warrant a 5.5 point adjustment? NO.) Lay the points...
Wednesday 03/09: +1.37 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)
New Orleans +4.5 / Dallas 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
New Orleans 93 Dallas 92 Winner
Tuesday 03/08: -4.00 Units (Volume 4.00 Units)
Indiana -1 / Philadelphia 7:05 ET 2.00 Units
Indiana 100 Philadelphia 110 Lose
Atlanta +5 / LA Lakers 7:05 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 87 LA Lakers 101 Lose
Dallas 127 NY Knicks 109 Winner
Dallas has now failed to cover their last 4 games (2-2 SU), and we've gone against them in all 4... We told everyone how the Mavs have been putting up unbelievable numbers. Going into their ATS loss at Indiana on 3/04, Dallas was shooting well above 50% as a whole since the break and were on an eight game winning streak since 02/12 with an average margin of victory of 10.4 during that stretch. Those numbers were ripe to come crashing back down to earth, but because of such an unreal run, the linemaker had no choice but to inflate the lines thus creating some real nice value. We also went on to say during these last 4 Dallas ATS losses that this is something that must be anticipated acted upon swiftly if you want to cash in because just as fast as they go cold, elite teams can turn it around on a dime and get red hot again before you know what hit you. So the casual player surveying the situation after the fact (tonight's game vs the Knicks) sees the trend of Dallas hitting a bad spot and are all attempting to get on the bandwagon. Well, those looking to start fading the Mavs now are sitting ducks.... you missed the boat. The linemaker has made his adjustment and the public has helped tonight's number out another two points (down to -5 from the opener of -7). So those playing NY tonight are taking the worst of it in the line and have nothing to show for this recent 4-0 ATS go against. We on the other and have pocketed a cool 6.83 Units (three 2 Units and one 1.50 unit) and are risking another 2 units tonight ON the Mavs looking for them to return to form enough to cover this moderate number (last March Dallas was -10.5 at home against the Knicks. Sure NY has improved, but enough to warrant a 5.5 point adjustment? NO.) Lay the points...
Wednesday 03/09: +1.37 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)
New Orleans +4.5 / Dallas 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
New Orleans 93 Dallas 92 Winner
Tuesday 03/08: -4.00 Units (Volume 4.00 Units)
Indiana -1 / Philadelphia 7:05 ET 2.00 Units
Indiana 100 Philadelphia 110 Lose
Atlanta +5 / LA Lakers 7:05 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 87 LA Lakers 101 Lose
Monday 03/07: +3.19 Units (Volume 3.50 Units)
Minnesota +7 / Dallas 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Minnesota 105 Dallas 108 Winner
We won last night going against the Mavs as Memphis got the outright win 104-103 after trailing at the half by 17 (38-55). We stated that the Mavs were a team ready to come crashing back down to reality. Going into last night's game against Memphis, Dallas had been shooting well above 50% since the break and their average margin of victory was +10.4. Both of these stats are totally unrealistic as far as the norm, but of course last night didn't have to be the start of the equalizing process but we felt good about it since Memphis had already beaten Dallas twice this season.
Often times when overly hot teams finally lose a game, they wind up going through a lull, but the lines still reflect the teams previous hot play thus creating some nice value. Tonight the Mavs are in Minnesota, and of course it's tough to ask a bad team to win (or in this case cover), but added to the mix here is what Dallas is looking ahead to. After tonight it's a day off before a stretch of 3 games in 4 nights... @ New Orleans Wednesday then home to host the Knicks on Thursday (TNT) then the Lakers on Saturday. So the combination of a natural lull that all teams go through starting last night and looking ahead to much bigger fish at the end of the week, we'll take the always competitive T'Wolves at home getting a touchdown...
Memphis -3 / Oklahoma City 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Memphis 107 Oklahoma City 101 Winner
It would be only natural to side with the Thunder here getting points citing a letdown spot after the Grizzlies just upset Dallas on the road last night, but in this case we really feel that this is a much improved Memphis team which the linemaker is not giving enough credit. Realize that almost half of their wins have come in the last 6 weeks (since 1/21: 16-6 SU & 15-7 ATS), including wins over Dallas, San Antonio, @ OKC and Orlando. The Thunder also played last night going to OT with Phoenix.
Sunday 03/06: -0.18 Units (Volume 4.00 Units)
Atlanta -3.5 / NY Knicks 6:35 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 79 NY Knicks 92 Lose
The Knicks don't have it all together. Sure, they have all the components, but they're just not all in sync. On paper, this team is a beast especially with the additions of Anthony & Billups, especially Billups because of the defensive mindset he brings to the game. I think the Knicks know that if they don't start playing defense, their chance of a deep playoff run (not just talking about this season) is next to nil. You don't win championships by giving up 106 per game!!
On the other hand, the Hawks have paid their dues. They've made the playoffs 3 straight years. Remember the 07-08 season when Atlanta took the Celtics to 7 games in the first round as huge underdogs. That got the leagues attention and what was said back then? "This is going to be a very dangerous team once they mature." The next year (08-09), Atlanta got past the first round winning an exciting seven game series over the Heat only to get swept by LeBron and the Cavs in the Conference semi-finals. Then last year it was the same thing (almost). Atlanta wins another seven game first round series, this time over Milwaukee, then got swept by the Magic.
This is now Joe Johnson's 8th year in the league (6th with the Hawks), and Al Horford's 4th year (all with Atlanta). This is a solid Hawks team that does have the chemistry and they do play defense (96 ppg). They are currently sitting in the 5th spot in the East just two games behind Orlando. Sure, on paper NY may have better talent overall but individual numbers mean nothing in this game. Basketball is a team sport... look at the Heat, technically they should never lose a game.
This is a very small lay (-4) which is being made possible by public perception. But look past the surface and you'll see the an ugly reality that the Knicks lost to the Cavs twice in the last two weeks, including Friday night at home while shooting 57%. So if they can't beat the bottom feeders of the league while shooting lights out, how are they expected to win on the road against a real team that plays real defense?
Memphis +6.5 / Dallas 7:35 ET 2.00 Units
Memphis 104 Dalas 103 Winner
The Mavs have been shooting well above 50% as a whole since the break and are on an eight game winning streak since 02/12 with an average margin of victory of 110.4 during that stretch. These are two stats that simply cannot and will not hold up. Of course that doesn't mean that tonight's the night they fall, but who better to bring Dallas back down to Earth than a team that has beaten them twice already this season? And the Grizzlies also recently beat the Spurs 109-93.
Friday 03/04: +3.19 Units (Volume 3.50 Units)
Chicago +2 / Orlando 7:05 ET 1.50 Units
Chicago 89 Orlando 81 Winner
Indiana +8.5 / Dallas 8:35 ET 2.00 Units
Indiana 108 Dallas 116 Winner
Thursday 03/03: -2.00 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Miami -5 / Orlando 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Miami 96 Orlando 99 Lose
Wednesday 03/02: -0.86 Units (Volume 3.25 Units)
Atlanta +4 / Chicago 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 83 Chicago 80 Winner
Charlotte +6.5 / Denver 9:05 ET 2.00 Units
Charlotte 80 Denver 120 Lose
Tuesday 03/01: +0.12 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
LA Lakers -9 / Minnesota 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
LA Lakers 90 Minnesota 79 Winner
Milwaukee -5 / Detroit 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Milwaukee 92 Detroit 90 Lose
Sunday 02/27: +1.37 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)
Cleveland +7.5 / Philadelphia 5:05 ET 1.50 Units
Cleveland 91 Philadelphia 95 Winner
Yes, the Sixers have been playing some great ball lately, but are they really worthy of laying this kind of number on the road? Don't look now but the Cavs have been a cash machine lately going 8-3-1 ATS last 4 weeks including outright wins over the Clippers, Lakers & Knicks since 2/11. Philly has been shooting way above the norm... well over 50% in their last three games... a stat that never holds up. So with an off shooting night probable and the Sixers perhaps peeking ahead to their date with Dallas next, we look for another competitive effort from the Cavs here. Linemaker is always slow adjusting to improvement and with this fat spot at home, we'll grab the value. -END
Saturday 02/26: -0.18 Units (Volume 4.00 Units)
Memphis -10 / Sacramento 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Memphis 120 Sacramento 92 Winner
Nasty scheduling spot, especially for a bad team. Last game in a 7 game road trip for the Kings (although the All Star break split the trip up). Since the break Sacramento has visited Miami, Orlando and Charlotte going 1-2 SU & ATS winning in Orlando the second game of a road back to back (nice winner for us Wednesday night). But tonight is a different story. This is another road back to back which means it's the Kings 4th game in 5 nights on the road and they're playing a much improved and rested Grizzlies team (13-4 SU & 11-6 ATS last 5 weeks)... idle the last 2 nights. Don't let the double digit lay scare you... should be lights out early for Sacramento... -END
Boston -7.5 / LA Clippers 10:35 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 99 LA Clippers 92 Lose
Very similar spot here as the last time Boston visited the Staples Center (to play the Lakers on 1/30). They were off a terrible game against Phoenix losing 71-88 laying -4.5. We were on Phoenix in that game you'll recall citing that Boston was playing a road back to back (they beat Portland the night before) and were looking ahead to their Sunday afternoon nationally televised showdown with the Lakers next. It all worked out perfect for us because after losing to Phoenix (a winner for us), this set up another big play for us on Boston over the Lakers... If they lost to Phoenix because they were looking ahead, they better beat LA, right. One of our big reasons for the Boston play over LA was the fact that Boston was held to such a poor offensive performance... 71 points on just 34% shooting and Ray Allen & Rajon Rondo were held to a combined 15 points. We said it in our write-up of that game:
"....The team facing this stable of sharp shooters better beware when playing Boston the game after such an offensive flop. Allen & Rondo won't be held to a combined 15 points again anytime soon..."
Well, guess what? Two nights ago, Boston lost in Denver to the newly roster gutted Nuggets 75-89. How many did Allen & Rondo score.... 15 total again including just 1-5 from 3 point range for Allen. So it's back to the Staples Center to play "the other" team from LA who have just returned home after an 11 game trip (2-9 SU & 3-8 ATS) and are playing their 4th game in 5 nights since the break. Clippers aren't quite there yet and are ripe to be on the bad end of an old "behind the woodshed" beating.... -END
Boston 99 LA Clippers 92 Lose
Very similar spot here as the last time Boston visited the Staples Center (to play the Lakers on 1/30). They were off a terrible game against Phoenix losing 71-88 laying -4.5. We were on Phoenix in that game you'll recall citing that Boston was playing a road back to back (they beat Portland the night before) and were looking ahead to their Sunday afternoon nationally televised showdown with the Lakers next. It all worked out perfect for us because after losing to Phoenix (a winner for us), this set up another big play for us on Boston over the Lakers... If they lost to Phoenix because they were looking ahead, they better beat LA, right. One of our big reasons for the Boston play over LA was the fact that Boston was held to such a poor offensive performance... 71 points on just 34% shooting and Ray Allen & Rajon Rondo were held to a combined 15 points. We said it in our write-up of that game:
"....The team facing this stable of sharp shooters better beware when playing Boston the game after such an offensive flop. Allen & Rondo won't be held to a combined 15 points again anytime soon..."
Well, guess what? Two nights ago, Boston lost in Denver to the newly roster gutted Nuggets 75-89. How many did Allen & Rondo score.... 15 total again including just 1-5 from 3 point range for Allen. So it's back to the Staples Center to play "the other" team from LA who have just returned home after an 11 game trip (2-9 SU & 3-8 ATS) and are playing their 4th game in 5 nights since the break. Clippers aren't quite there yet and are ripe to be on the bad end of an old "behind the woodshed" beating.... -END
Friday 02/25: +0.57 Units (Volume 3.25 Units)
Detroit +10 / Philadelphia 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Detroit 94 Philadelphia 110 Lose
LA Lakers -10.5 / LA Clippers 10:35 ET 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 108 LA Clippers 95 Winner
Lakers have a score to settle with the Clippers as they lost outright last month 92-99 (as the road team laying -5). The Lakers seem to have flipped the switch after the break blowing out Atlanta 104-80 and winning on the road at Portland in OT Wednesday 106-101. Remember LA lost their last three before the break including losses at Charlotte and Cleveland... Beware the freight train called the Lakers in the second half of the season.
Thursday 02/24: +3.64 Units (Volume 4.00 Units)
Chicago +3 / Miami 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Chicago 93 Miami 89 Winner
Under 192.5 Miami / Chicago 2.00 Units
Miami 89 Chicago 93 Winner
Last night we were on the Raptors (+9) at home against these Bulls as we felt Chicago would be looking ahead to tonight's game at home with Miami. Didn't really expect them to lose outright though (113-118), but we'll take it...
Last night's loss only adds to Chicago's motivation. We also liked the fact that Toronto had already played a game since returning from the break (Tuesday) while the Bulls hadn't which figured to be a factor... And Noah made his return last night. Whenever a key player is out for an extended period, it takes time to get him worked back into the system.. Not saying that one game has done it, but the first game back is always the toughest.
Tonight's game is also Chicago's last home game before going on a nine day, five city eastern trip with stops in Milwaukee, Washington, Atlanta Orlando and ending in South Beach for a rematch of tonight's game. So with a day off after tonight and 2 of the leagues softer opponents to follow, look for the Bulls to let it all hang out here.... especially on the defensive end. It will certainly be a playoff atmosphere tonight in the United Center.
Wednesday 02/23: +3.88 Units (Volume 4.25 Units)
Toronto +9 / Chicago 7:05 ET 1.50 Units
Toronto 118 Chicago 113 Winner
Not a good spot for the Bulls to be laying close to double digits on the road. Chicago coming off of 4 straight SU & ATS wins before the break... 2 on the road and 2 home including beating the Spurs on the 17th 109-99... and have Miami at home tomorrow night, which surely is on their minds. Meanwhile, Toronto played last night losing to Charlotte 101-114, but the fact that they played we feel gives them an edge coming out of the All Star break. Chicago has been idle since their meeting with San Antonio 6 days ago. Expect a bit of rust from the Bulls while they look ahead to going back home to play the Heat in 24 hours.
Sacramento +14 / Orlando 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Sacramento 111 Orlando 105 Winner
Milwaukee +7 / NY Knicks 7:35 ET 1.50 Units
Milwaukee 108 NY Knicks 114 Winner
Knicks gutted their team with the Carmelo/Billups acquisition. Not a bad deal, but now they must make all the pieces fit, which will take some time. Bucks got the best of NY at home back in November, but not concerned about revenge here. Knicks will be too busy getting to know each other, and will also be peeking ahead to their dates with the Heat in Miami on Sunday night (ESPN, 8:05 et) and in Orlando next Tuesday.
Tuesday 02/22: -1.25 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
Golden State +4.5 / Boston 10:35 ET 1.25 Units
Golden State 93 Boston 115 Lose
Wednesday 02/16: -1.25 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
Milwaukee -1.5 / Denver 9:05 ET 1.25 Units
Milwaukee 87 Denver 94 Lose
Tuesday 02/15: +0.11 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Philadelphia +3.5 / Memphis 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Philadelphia 91 Memphis 102 Lose
Oklahoma City -9 / Sacramento 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Oklahoma City 126 Sacramento 96 Winner
Monday 02/14: -4.00 Units (Volume 4.00 Units)
New Jersey +8 / San Antonio 7:05 ET 2.00 Units
New Jersey 85 San Antonio 102 Lose
Pretty much the same situation as our play on Philadelphia (against these Spurs) on Friday. It was the Spurs 3rd game in 4 nights on the road, their 6th straight road game, and San Antonio was coming off of 3 straight well above average shooting performances: (58% @ Toronto, 53% @ Detroit & 57% @ Sacramento... ). What happened in that game....? The Sixers beat the Spurs 77-71.
The road trip continued for the Spurs with a game the very next night in the nation's capitol where San Antonio blew out the Wizards 118-94 behind yet ANOTHER BIG shooting night: 58%. So tonight, with just one day of rest, San Antonio travels to New Jersey and are laying a hefty 8 points as they play now their 8th straight road game and 5th in 7 nights on the road. Not a bad spot to grab this inflated number. Jersey isn't as bad lately as their overall record (17-38) would indicate... In fact they're 7-7 SU the last 4 weeks with impressive wins over Charlotte (road), New Orleans, Denver, Memphis & Utah and a tough 1 point loss to the Mavs on this floor back on 1/22. Nets are clearly looking to the future and welcome the big competition.
Minnesota +2.5 / Portland 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Minnesota 81 Portland 95 Lose
Here's another continuation situation... we played against the Blazers yesterday in Detroit citing the well above average shooting by Portland over their last 3 games (54%, 51% & 54% Toronto, Chicago & Cleveland), and wins of just 6 points in each of those 3 games despite shooting so well. So the question was, what happens when the inevitable off shooting night comes? If they're just barely winning with shooting numbers like these, they'll get buried once their shots stop falling. Well, the hot shooting continued on Sunday for Portland as they just squeaked by in Detroit (105-100 on 55% shooting). This was a game that went down to the wire. We'll grab the small home dog here tonight going against the Blazers once again, this time on the tail end of a road back to back and their 3rd game on the road in four nights, and their inevitable off shooting night still on the immediate horizon.
Sunday 02/13: -0.36 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Toronto +2 / LA Clippers 6:05 ET 1.25 Units
Toronto 98 LA Clippers 93 Winner
Kind of a continuation bet here from our play against these Clippers on the road Friday night in Cleveland where the Cavs got their first win in 27 tries. In that game, we questioned the Clippers laying points on the road, especially in the middle of such a tough road trip: at Atlanta, Miami, Orlando & NY (where they upset the Knicks) all leading up to the Cleveland game on Friday. So now, after losing to the leagues laughing stock, this young Clipper team had a day off which they spent travelling north of the border and most certainly spent Saturday night out on the town in one of the most partying NBA cities in the league. Always tough for visiting teams playing the Raptors on Sunday, especially young teams. Also, 4th game in 6 nights on the road for LA.
Detroit +2.5 / Portland 6:05 ET 1.50 Units
Detroit 100 Portland 105 Lose
Blazers riding a 3 game winning streak beating the Raptors (road), Bulls (home) & Cavs (road) all by the same margin: 6 points each. It took shooting above 50% from the floor in each of those games to win (54%, 51% & 54% to be exact). Now it's on to Detroit to face an undervalued Pistons squad. Realize that Detroit, although just 20-34 SU, are 30-24 ATS... a sure sign of value in this spot getting points at home. And if it took such great shooting to barely beat Toronto & Cleveland, then what will happen if their shot is a bit off tonight? This one could be over early for the visitors...
Saturday 02/12: -1.25 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Atlanta -7.5 / Charlotte 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 86 Charlotte 88 Lose
Friday 02/10: +2.51 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Philadelphia +3 / San Antonio 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Philadelphia 77 San Antonio 71 Winner
Things aren't always as they seem in the NBA. The road can make life very difficult on teams at times, especially when caught up in a scheduling nightmare such as the Spurs are in here. San Antonio has been on the road since 02/01, this being their 6th stop in a 17 day, 9 city trip and are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights tonight in Philadelphia. Don't let the Sixers sub .500 record fool you. Realize that this is a much improved team from the start of the season when they were 3-13 SU. Since then, the Sixers are a very improved 21-15 SU & 24-12 ATS. Granted San Antonio is the team to beat this year having only lost 8 times, but there are always spots during the long NBA season where great teams hit lulls, and this is one of them for the Spurs... Couple the scheduling with the lights out shooting the last 3 games on the road for the Spurs (58% @ Toronto, 53% @ Detroit & 57% @ Sacramento... which is very ripe to come crashing down to earth), and we can see San Antonio's 9th loss of the season tonight in the City Of Brotherly Love...
Cleveland +4 / LA Clippers 7:35 ET 1.50 Units
Cleveland 126 LA Clippers 119 Winner
Yeah, real tough asking a bad team to win for you, but when you lose like the Cavs have been losing, the line maker has no choice but to keep inflating the number. Cleveland is 6-4-1 ATS L11. It's just a matter of time before they gain respectability again. Also, who are the Clippers to be laying points on the road? Sure, we're the first to tell you LA is a solid up and coming young team, but they're not quite there yet. Of course tonight's line is correct because of the recent play of both teams, but we feel this is a spot LA will overlook, especially coming off their big win Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden. This also is the 5th game of an 8 game road trip for LA (3rd in 4 nights). and the first 4 were all tough opponents: Atlanta, Miami, Orlando & NY... Can see a LA being a bit flat here as the Cavs finally get a win after tying the record for most consecutive losses at 26... -END
Thursday 02/10: -0.18 Units (Volume 4.00 Units)
Boston -2 / LA Lakers 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 86 LA Lakers 92 Lose
Under 187.5 LA Lakers / Boston 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 92 Boston 86 Winner
OK, we can read all the hype too.... Lakers revenge is all they're talking about. The Celtics came into the Staples Center a couple of Sundays ago and put it to the defending champs 109-96. We were on Boston in that game you'll recall (2 Units also) citing Boston revenge (for losing in the Finals) as one of the reasons, but we also went on to say that the other reason was history... LA has a habit of becoming bored and just going through the motions mid season. It's almost as if they know they have a switch they can turn on when their backs are to the wall and rattle off 8 or 9 straight wins when needed down the stretch. This is LA's biggest fault.
Sure, LA is going to come into Boston tonight all business and with revenge on their minds, but the Celtics still have revenge on their minds... Winning one road game (the only game they've played since last years Finals) does not constitute evening the score. Not by a long shot. Boston is going to be out to make a statement tonight that it was no fluke what happened in LA late last month... "We're the better team and don't forget that..." is the point they'll be getting across in front of their home crowd. To give back the momentum in this rivalry to LA will be totally wasting the win out west. This Boston team will be out for blood tonight.
As mentioned, the Lakers will certainly be doing their best to avenge their loss, and the first order of business to make that happen will be to do what they do best in big games... Clamp down on defense. Remember, the Under was 5-1-1 in Last years Finals, and we look for that to be the game plan here. The total on the 1/30 meeting in LA was 185.5, 2 points lower (because of that game flying over), and the totals in the Finals last year ranged from 191 to 186 by game seven. Tonight's number hasn't budged off of the opener of 187.5 despite the public pounding the over.
And while we're on the subject of tonight's line, what's with the move down to Boston -2? Boston has a better record by 2 games. The game opened -3 which we thought was low to begin with, then it moved down... Just goes to show the strength of the media hype: All you're reading is how LA is going to get revenge. Boston is getting no respect from the line maker here. They got the respect in LA as they were getting only +3 (which we questioned because of the fact that LA was -6 in last years Finals in LA, and the "bad number" was correct then). So the way we see it is that it's the revenge angle and only the revenge angle driving this cheap price. There's no way the line maker is going to stop giving Boston the respect since 10 days ago. Boston laying just -2 is a bargain... It should be at least -4 or -5....
Also, as a final note, look at the scheduling here. Boston last played Monday (at Charlotte in a loss on the tail end of a back to back after beating Orlando Sunday) and after tonight have two days off before the Heat come into town on Sunday. The Lakers, also idle since Monday, are at the beginning of a 12 day, 7 city eastern road trip and next play at Madison Square Garden tomorrow night and then travel to Orlando Sunday. Two road stops that are certainly on these players minds... -END
Wednesday 02/09: +1.49 Units (Volume 4.25 Units)
Toronto +7 / San Antonio 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Toronto 100 San Antonio 111 Lose
Charlotte +4 / Indiana 7:05 ET 1.50 Units
Charlotte 103 Indiana 104 Winner
Chicago +1 / Utah 9:05 ET 1.50 Units
Chicago 91 Utah 86 Winner
Tuesday 02/08: -0.13 Units (Volume 3.00 Units)
Miami -10.5 / Indiana 7:35 ET 1.50 Units
Miami 117 Indiana 112 Lose
Not quite buying into the Frank Vogel (Interim Pacers head coach) hype.. Actually, forget about buying into it, we don't even understand the hype. Pacers lose 13 of 17 games, replace the coach Jim O'Brien with Vogel as "interim" and the same Pacers team wins 4 straight beating Toronto, Cleveland, Portland & New Jersey LAYING points in each one (doesn't that mean they're supposed to win?) Now Indiana takes the Frank Vogel show on the road to South Beach... Good luck with that. The Heat have arrived... The Big Three have gelled. The Heat are just plowing through the league as they're on a 28-5 run. This team we feel has the capability in years to come of winning 70 games. We don't think the line maker has fully caught up to just how special a team the Heat are and what a force they're going to be for a very long time. That and the recent Indiana shake-up which seems to be working is what's keeping this number manageable tonight. Lay the double digits and expect a blowout...
Memphis +6.5 / Oklahoma City 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Memphis 105 Oklahoma City 101 Winner
Strange scheduling for the Thunder here as they have a home game sandwiched between four road games with 2 days off before tonight and 3 days off after tonight before heading out to California for a back to back in Sacramento & Golden State. Also Thunder coming off of two big road wins at Phoenix & Utah shooting 57% & 52%. Here's the spot where the home team (laying a hefty number) is going to have a hard time finding the hole as their shooting should come back down to earth...
Monday 02/07: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Under 194.5 LA Lakers / Memphis 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 93 Memphis 84 Winner
Sunday 02/06: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Under 204 LA Clippers / Miami 12:05 ET 2.00 Units
LA Clippers 79 Miami 97 Winner
Clippers have the deck totally stacked against them this afternoon and we expect absolutely nothing from them. First, this is a big revenge game for the Heat as LA upset them out west less than a month ago (111-105 as 7 point dogs). Also realize the time of this game in comparison to the Clippers players body clocks... they were awake this morning somewhere around 5 AM Pacific time getting ready to head to the Arena. Also these young players most certainly did a bit of hanging down in South Beach last night. So why not take the Heat here? Because we don't like laying -11.5 points, especially when Miami is coming off of a 55% shooting performance in their last game (@ Charlotte on Friday) and (3) 50% games before that. So with a combination of the Clippers maybe getting the sleep out of their eyes by HT and Miami's shot being a bit off as their shooting comes back down to earth and this big over 200 number, we'll play the Under here...
Friday 02/04: -2.00 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Boston -6.5 / Dallas 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 97 Dallas 101 Lose
Much better scheduling spot for Boston this time aroud vs the Mavs. In their previous meeting back in November, Boston was on the back end of a road back to back having just played the Thunder the night before and were looking ahead to a trip to Miami on deck.... and they still hung the whole game falling just a bucket short in the end (87-89). And Dallas was nice and rested for that game with off days before & after. Celtics the much more rested team in this one as they haven't played since Tuesday. We usually don't like playing on teams their first game back from a road trip due to the distractions of "life" that hit the players upon getting back to their families, but in this case Boston has been home for 3 days already....
Thursday 02/03: -2.00 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Under 197 Miami / Orlando 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Miami 104 Orlando 100 Lose
Wednesday 02/02: +1.37 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)
Golden State +4.5 / Boston 10:35 ET 1.25 Units
Golden State 93 Boston 115 Lose
Wednesday 02/16: -1.25 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
Milwaukee -1.5 / Denver 9:05 ET 1.25 Units
Milwaukee 87 Denver 94 Lose
Tuesday 02/15: +0.11 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Philadelphia +3.5 / Memphis 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Philadelphia 91 Memphis 102 Lose
Oklahoma City -9 / Sacramento 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Oklahoma City 126 Sacramento 96 Winner
Monday 02/14: -4.00 Units (Volume 4.00 Units)
New Jersey +8 / San Antonio 7:05 ET 2.00 Units
New Jersey 85 San Antonio 102 Lose
Pretty much the same situation as our play on Philadelphia (against these Spurs) on Friday. It was the Spurs 3rd game in 4 nights on the road, their 6th straight road game, and San Antonio was coming off of 3 straight well above average shooting performances: (58% @ Toronto, 53% @ Detroit & 57% @ Sacramento... ). What happened in that game....? The Sixers beat the Spurs 77-71.
The road trip continued for the Spurs with a game the very next night in the nation's capitol where San Antonio blew out the Wizards 118-94 behind yet ANOTHER BIG shooting night: 58%. So tonight, with just one day of rest, San Antonio travels to New Jersey and are laying a hefty 8 points as they play now their 8th straight road game and 5th in 7 nights on the road. Not a bad spot to grab this inflated number. Jersey isn't as bad lately as their overall record (17-38) would indicate... In fact they're 7-7 SU the last 4 weeks with impressive wins over Charlotte (road), New Orleans, Denver, Memphis & Utah and a tough 1 point loss to the Mavs on this floor back on 1/22. Nets are clearly looking to the future and welcome the big competition.
Minnesota +2.5 / Portland 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Minnesota 81 Portland 95 Lose
Here's another continuation situation... we played against the Blazers yesterday in Detroit citing the well above average shooting by Portland over their last 3 games (54%, 51% & 54% Toronto, Chicago & Cleveland), and wins of just 6 points in each of those 3 games despite shooting so well. So the question was, what happens when the inevitable off shooting night comes? If they're just barely winning with shooting numbers like these, they'll get buried once their shots stop falling. Well, the hot shooting continued on Sunday for Portland as they just squeaked by in Detroit (105-100 on 55% shooting). This was a game that went down to the wire. We'll grab the small home dog here tonight going against the Blazers once again, this time on the tail end of a road back to back and their 3rd game on the road in four nights, and their inevitable off shooting night still on the immediate horizon.
Sunday 02/13: -0.36 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Toronto +2 / LA Clippers 6:05 ET 1.25 Units
Toronto 98 LA Clippers 93 Winner
Kind of a continuation bet here from our play against these Clippers on the road Friday night in Cleveland where the Cavs got their first win in 27 tries. In that game, we questioned the Clippers laying points on the road, especially in the middle of such a tough road trip: at Atlanta, Miami, Orlando & NY (where they upset the Knicks) all leading up to the Cleveland game on Friday. So now, after losing to the leagues laughing stock, this young Clipper team had a day off which they spent travelling north of the border and most certainly spent Saturday night out on the town in one of the most partying NBA cities in the league. Always tough for visiting teams playing the Raptors on Sunday, especially young teams. Also, 4th game in 6 nights on the road for LA.
Detroit +2.5 / Portland 6:05 ET 1.50 Units
Detroit 100 Portland 105 Lose
Blazers riding a 3 game winning streak beating the Raptors (road), Bulls (home) & Cavs (road) all by the same margin: 6 points each. It took shooting above 50% from the floor in each of those games to win (54%, 51% & 54% to be exact). Now it's on to Detroit to face an undervalued Pistons squad. Realize that Detroit, although just 20-34 SU, are 30-24 ATS... a sure sign of value in this spot getting points at home. And if it took such great shooting to barely beat Toronto & Cleveland, then what will happen if their shot is a bit off tonight? This one could be over early for the visitors...
Saturday 02/12: -1.25 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Atlanta -7.5 / Charlotte 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 86 Charlotte 88 Lose
Friday 02/10: +2.51 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Philadelphia +3 / San Antonio 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Philadelphia 77 San Antonio 71 Winner
Things aren't always as they seem in the NBA. The road can make life very difficult on teams at times, especially when caught up in a scheduling nightmare such as the Spurs are in here. San Antonio has been on the road since 02/01, this being their 6th stop in a 17 day, 9 city trip and are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights tonight in Philadelphia. Don't let the Sixers sub .500 record fool you. Realize that this is a much improved team from the start of the season when they were 3-13 SU. Since then, the Sixers are a very improved 21-15 SU & 24-12 ATS. Granted San Antonio is the team to beat this year having only lost 8 times, but there are always spots during the long NBA season where great teams hit lulls, and this is one of them for the Spurs... Couple the scheduling with the lights out shooting the last 3 games on the road for the Spurs (58% @ Toronto, 53% @ Detroit & 57% @ Sacramento... which is very ripe to come crashing down to earth), and we can see San Antonio's 9th loss of the season tonight in the City Of Brotherly Love...
Cleveland +4 / LA Clippers 7:35 ET 1.50 Units
Cleveland 126 LA Clippers 119 Winner
Yeah, real tough asking a bad team to win for you, but when you lose like the Cavs have been losing, the line maker has no choice but to keep inflating the number. Cleveland is 6-4-1 ATS L11. It's just a matter of time before they gain respectability again. Also, who are the Clippers to be laying points on the road? Sure, we're the first to tell you LA is a solid up and coming young team, but they're not quite there yet. Of course tonight's line is correct because of the recent play of both teams, but we feel this is a spot LA will overlook, especially coming off their big win Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden. This also is the 5th game of an 8 game road trip for LA (3rd in 4 nights). and the first 4 were all tough opponents: Atlanta, Miami, Orlando & NY... Can see a LA being a bit flat here as the Cavs finally get a win after tying the record for most consecutive losses at 26... -END
Thursday 02/10: -0.18 Units (Volume 4.00 Units)
Boston -2 / LA Lakers 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 86 LA Lakers 92 Lose
Under 187.5 LA Lakers / Boston 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 92 Boston 86 Winner
OK, we can read all the hype too.... Lakers revenge is all they're talking about. The Celtics came into the Staples Center a couple of Sundays ago and put it to the defending champs 109-96. We were on Boston in that game you'll recall (2 Units also) citing Boston revenge (for losing in the Finals) as one of the reasons, but we also went on to say that the other reason was history... LA has a habit of becoming bored and just going through the motions mid season. It's almost as if they know they have a switch they can turn on when their backs are to the wall and rattle off 8 or 9 straight wins when needed down the stretch. This is LA's biggest fault.
Sure, LA is going to come into Boston tonight all business and with revenge on their minds, but the Celtics still have revenge on their minds... Winning one road game (the only game they've played since last years Finals) does not constitute evening the score. Not by a long shot. Boston is going to be out to make a statement tonight that it was no fluke what happened in LA late last month... "We're the better team and don't forget that..." is the point they'll be getting across in front of their home crowd. To give back the momentum in this rivalry to LA will be totally wasting the win out west. This Boston team will be out for blood tonight.
As mentioned, the Lakers will certainly be doing their best to avenge their loss, and the first order of business to make that happen will be to do what they do best in big games... Clamp down on defense. Remember, the Under was 5-1-1 in Last years Finals, and we look for that to be the game plan here. The total on the 1/30 meeting in LA was 185.5, 2 points lower (because of that game flying over), and the totals in the Finals last year ranged from 191 to 186 by game seven. Tonight's number hasn't budged off of the opener of 187.5 despite the public pounding the over.
And while we're on the subject of tonight's line, what's with the move down to Boston -2? Boston has a better record by 2 games. The game opened -3 which we thought was low to begin with, then it moved down... Just goes to show the strength of the media hype: All you're reading is how LA is going to get revenge. Boston is getting no respect from the line maker here. They got the respect in LA as they were getting only +3 (which we questioned because of the fact that LA was -6 in last years Finals in LA, and the "bad number" was correct then). So the way we see it is that it's the revenge angle and only the revenge angle driving this cheap price. There's no way the line maker is going to stop giving Boston the respect since 10 days ago. Boston laying just -2 is a bargain... It should be at least -4 or -5....
Also, as a final note, look at the scheduling here. Boston last played Monday (at Charlotte in a loss on the tail end of a back to back after beating Orlando Sunday) and after tonight have two days off before the Heat come into town on Sunday. The Lakers, also idle since Monday, are at the beginning of a 12 day, 7 city eastern road trip and next play at Madison Square Garden tomorrow night and then travel to Orlando Sunday. Two road stops that are certainly on these players minds... -END
Wednesday 02/09: +1.49 Units (Volume 4.25 Units)
Toronto +7 / San Antonio 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Toronto 100 San Antonio 111 Lose
Charlotte +4 / Indiana 7:05 ET 1.50 Units
Charlotte 103 Indiana 104 Winner
Chicago +1 / Utah 9:05 ET 1.50 Units
Chicago 91 Utah 86 Winner
Tuesday 02/08: -0.13 Units (Volume 3.00 Units)
Miami -10.5 / Indiana 7:35 ET 1.50 Units
Miami 117 Indiana 112 Lose
Not quite buying into the Frank Vogel (Interim Pacers head coach) hype.. Actually, forget about buying into it, we don't even understand the hype. Pacers lose 13 of 17 games, replace the coach Jim O'Brien with Vogel as "interim" and the same Pacers team wins 4 straight beating Toronto, Cleveland, Portland & New Jersey LAYING points in each one (doesn't that mean they're supposed to win?) Now Indiana takes the Frank Vogel show on the road to South Beach... Good luck with that. The Heat have arrived... The Big Three have gelled. The Heat are just plowing through the league as they're on a 28-5 run. This team we feel has the capability in years to come of winning 70 games. We don't think the line maker has fully caught up to just how special a team the Heat are and what a force they're going to be for a very long time. That and the recent Indiana shake-up which seems to be working is what's keeping this number manageable tonight. Lay the double digits and expect a blowout...
Memphis +6.5 / Oklahoma City 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Memphis 105 Oklahoma City 101 Winner
Strange scheduling for the Thunder here as they have a home game sandwiched between four road games with 2 days off before tonight and 3 days off after tonight before heading out to California for a back to back in Sacramento & Golden State. Also Thunder coming off of two big road wins at Phoenix & Utah shooting 57% & 52%. Here's the spot where the home team (laying a hefty number) is going to have a hard time finding the hole as their shooting should come back down to earth...
Monday 02/07: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Under 194.5 LA Lakers / Memphis 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 93 Memphis 84 Winner
Sunday 02/06: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Under 204 LA Clippers / Miami 12:05 ET 2.00 Units
LA Clippers 79 Miami 97 Winner
Clippers have the deck totally stacked against them this afternoon and we expect absolutely nothing from them. First, this is a big revenge game for the Heat as LA upset them out west less than a month ago (111-105 as 7 point dogs). Also realize the time of this game in comparison to the Clippers players body clocks... they were awake this morning somewhere around 5 AM Pacific time getting ready to head to the Arena. Also these young players most certainly did a bit of hanging down in South Beach last night. So why not take the Heat here? Because we don't like laying -11.5 points, especially when Miami is coming off of a 55% shooting performance in their last game (@ Charlotte on Friday) and (3) 50% games before that. So with a combination of the Clippers maybe getting the sleep out of their eyes by HT and Miami's shot being a bit off as their shooting comes back down to earth and this big over 200 number, we'll play the Under here...
Friday 02/04: -2.00 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Boston -6.5 / Dallas 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 97 Dallas 101 Lose
Much better scheduling spot for Boston this time aroud vs the Mavs. In their previous meeting back in November, Boston was on the back end of a road back to back having just played the Thunder the night before and were looking ahead to a trip to Miami on deck.... and they still hung the whole game falling just a bucket short in the end (87-89). And Dallas was nice and rested for that game with off days before & after. Celtics the much more rested team in this one as they haven't played since Tuesday. We usually don't like playing on teams their first game back from a road trip due to the distractions of "life" that hit the players upon getting back to their families, but in this case Boston has been home for 3 days already....
Thursday 02/03: -2.00 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Under 197 Miami / Orlando 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Miami 104 Orlando 100 Lose
Wednesday 02/02: +1.37 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)
Dallas +2 / NY Knicks 7:35 ET 1.50 Units
Dallas 113 NY Knicks 97 Winner
Monday 01/31: +1.37 Units (Volume 4.25 Units)
LA Clippers -3.5 / Milwaukee 10:35 ET 1.50 Units
LA Clippers 105 Milwaukee 98 Winner
Big value here as we feel the line maker is a bit slow in catching up to the improvement of the Clippers. LA, despite being 18-28 on the season, has won 13 of their last 20 games. Tonight they host a tired Milwaukee team playing their 3rd game in four days (including going to OT Friday in Toronto). Also note the tough scheduling for Milwaukee over the past 2 months... they have not played back to back home games since 12/08 - 12/10. That means that Milwaukee has travelled after each of their last 24 games, making 9 "pit stops" home for single game homestands. Look for the rested Clippers to continue upward...
Sunday 01/30: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Boston +3 / LA Lakers 3:30 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 109 A Lakers 96 Winner
Well, here we are... It's the look ahead spot for both teams that we talked about Friday when we were on Sacramento +12 over LA and Phoenix +4.5 over Boston. Worked out quite well for us as BOTH dogs won outright in convincing fashion... Goes to show the power of the mental aspect of the game. Don't think that this meeting wasn't on the minds of all involved.
We're giving the nod to the road team here for several reasons. First, it's the revenge factor. Celtics are out to avenge last years Finals where the Lakers won in a grueling 7 game series after returning to LA down 2-3. Of course revenge only goes so far... obviously LA wants to win today also, but the difference we feel is history. The Lakers have a habit of being content with mediocre play at times and not getting up for big games. Losing to teams they're supposed to beat (like the Kings on Friday), doesn't seem to phase them... Earlier this season LA had two losing streaks of 3 & 4 games all within a 34 day period. On 11/26 they lost to Utah, Indiana, Memphis & Houston and then on 12/21, at home vs Milwaukee (laying -12) and looking ahead to their Christmas Day game with the Heat, LA lost outright 79-98 to the Bucks. Did that motivate the Champs then? No. Miami proceeded to ruin the Holiday for the home crowd as they blasted the Lakers 96-80 on national TV. And even 3 days later LA got blown out again, this time on the road in San Antonio 97-82. We're not interested in backing this type (or lack there of) motivation.
On the other hand, the Celtics we feel will be highly motivated. Not just because of last years Finals, but also because of being held to just 71 points and 34% shooting by Phoenix. The Suns are not exactly known for their defense. The team facing this stable of sharp shooters better beware when playing Boston the game after such an offensive flop. Allen & Rondo won't be held to a combined 15 points again anytime soon... especially not this afternoon in this marquee match up.
Fishy line...
Also note the number on today's game. Why are the Lakers only 3? Weren't they laying -6 & -7 at home in last years Finals? And don't these teams have similar records? Shouldn't home court be worth a bit more than 3 points? Remember... the line maker gives nothing away...
Saturday 01/29: -1.50 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)
NJ Nets +6.5 / Milwaukee 8:35 ET 1.50 Units
NJ Nets 81 Milwaukee 91 Lose
Friday 01/28: +3.42 Units (Volume 3.75 Units)
Memphis +4 / Philadelphia 7:05 ET 1.00 Units
Memphis 99 Philadelphia 94 Winner
Sacramento +12.5 / LA Lakers 10:35 ET 1.50 Units
Sacramento 100 LA Lakers 95 Winner
With the Celtics on deck for the Lakers (at home Sunday afternoon on ABC), and coming off of 3 straight games shooting well over 50% (@ Dallas last Wednesday 1/19: 100-109 54%, Friday 1/21 @ Denver 107-97 53% & Wednesday 1/25 at home vs Utah 120-91 62%), this is a classic spot for a Laker sleepwalk as they've done so many times in the past. Plus, the home team has an extremely tough schedule over the next 2+ weeks... after Sunday's game vs Boston, Houston in town Tuesday followed by the Spurs Thursday in another nationally televised game (TNT), then the Lakers hit the road for a 12 day 7 city eastern trip including stops in New Orleans, Boston, New York & Orlando. If the look ahead doesn't get LA tonight it'll be the natural levelling off of shooting that does... but either way, this big number is live tonight at the Staples Center.
Phoenix +4 / Boston 10:35 ET 1.25 Units
Phoenix 88 Boston 71 Winner
Tough bit of scheduling for the road team here as Boston playing the tail end of a road back to back (@ Portland last night winning 88-78) and having to look forward to a trip to LA Lakers on Sunday afternoon (ABC). Home team rested after arriving home from recent road trip on Monday and haven't played since Wednesday. Also, Celtics held Blazers to just 78 points last night on 37% shooting. Defense takes much more energy than offense...
Thursday 01/27: +1.14 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
Houston +6.5 / Dallas 8:35 ET 1.25 Units
Houston 106 Dallas 111 Winner
Wednesday 01/26: -0.36 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
New Jersey +3.5 / Memphis 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
NJ Nets 93 Memphis 88 Winner
Detroit +2 / Denver 7:35 ET 1.50 Units
Detroit 100 Denver 109 Lose
Tuesday 01/25: -1.25 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
LA Clippers +6.5 / Dallas 8:35 ET 1.25 Units
LA Clippers 105 Dallas 112 Lose
Monday 01/24: +4.33 Units (Volume 4.75 Units)New Jersey +3.5 / Memphis 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
NJ Nets 93 Memphis 88 Winner
Detroit +2 / Denver 7:35 ET 1.50 Units
Detroit 100 Denver 109 Lose
Tuesday 01/25: -1.25 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
LA Clippers +6.5 / Dallas 8:35 ET 1.25 Units
LA Clippers 105 Dallas 112 Lose
Toronto +4.5 / Memphis 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Toronto 98 Memphis 100 Winner
Only thing holding us back from a higher rated release is that this is the first game back home for the Raptors after an eight day, 5 city road trip. Always concerned about players mental state upon first arriving home and dealing with their personal affairs (family, business dealings, etc...).
Memphis is coming off of 2 big wins... 115-100 over Houston Friday night in a game the Grizzlies trailed for most of the way, and then 94-81 over the Bucks on the road Saturday as small dogs. Memphis shot 53% & 51% in those two wins and now are laying points on the road... not a favorable spot for the Grizzlies. We look for Memphis to be a bit off tonight shooting as the home team keeps this one close throughout with a chance to win in the end...
Oklahoma City +4 / New Orleans 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Oklahoma City 89 New Orleans 91 Winner
Sacramento +7 / Portland 10:05 ET 2.00 Units
Sacramento 96 Portland 81 Winner
Portland riding a 5 game SU winning streak (3-2 ATS), but before getting overly excited, take a look at who they beat... New Jersey, Minnesota, Sacramento, Clippers & Pacers... ALL sub .500 teams. In fact, combined these five have 64 wins (12.8 avg). Their biggest win out of the five has to be Thursday's game against the red hot Clippers on national TV (TNT). The Blazers won going away 108-93 behind 56% shooting.
Sacramento has been improving lately as they are finally competing on the road. During their recent road trip (01/09 - 01/17), the Kings covered 5 of 6 including upsetting the Knicks 93-83 getting 8.5. They also took this Portland team to OT last Wednesday but lost 90-94 at home. Just can't justify this hefty lay for Portland here.
Saturday 01/22: +0.34 Units (Volume 3.00 Units)
Washington +7 / Boston 7:05 ET 1.75 Units
Washington 85 Boston 83 Winner
Over 187.5 Dallas / NJ Nets 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Dallas 87 NJ Nets 86 Lose
Friday 01/21: -1.25 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
Atlanta -4 / New Orleans 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 59 New Orleans 100 Lose
Thursday 01/20: +3.19 Units (Volume 3.50 Units)
Chicago -3.5 / Dallas 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Chicago 82 Dallas 77 Winner
Weird scheduling for the Mavs (just what they need when finally snapping a 6 game losing streak last night!!)... After 4 straight on the road (0-4 SU & ATS), Dallas came home for a pit stop last night to host the Lakers and finally got a win... their first since 01/04. But now it's back on the road again as the Mavs travel to Chicago for a rematch of November 19th when the Bulls beat Dallas by 5 (88-83), also in Chicago. We're expecting similar results tonight with Chicago covering this small number.
One of our favorite situations to look at is teams returning from road trips... that their first game home could very well be a flop due to players minds being elsewhere as they deal with family and business issues all at once upon their return. So with the case of the Mavs this past week, they left home last Wednesday (01/12) after losing back to back games at home to OKC & Orlando on he 6th & 8th only to lose 4 more away from home... They were able to focus last night though as they beat LA 109-100 snapping the 0-6 run. Now it's an immediate exit out of town again to Chicago (and bringing with them whatever issues were waiting for them at home) to face a Bulls team just settling in at home, where they'll remain for the next 10 days. Also Chicago is coming off a tough 1 point loss to Charlotte last night on this floor and they have lowly Cleveland on deck after a day of rest, so you can be sure the homers will be going all out tonight...
Portland -3.5 / LA Clippers 10:35 ET 2.00 Units
Portland 108 LA Clippers 93 Winner
Clippers are finally getting it together with rookie Blake Griffin leading the way... but he's still just one player and all players eventually have off days.Tough to go against a team playing such improved ball of late AND getting points, but in this case there are too many factors working against the road team. First, LA just 3-12 away from he Staples Center this season (OK, that's obvious), but also it's the "what goes up must come down" principal as well. The Clippers are coming off of a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS run on their recent home stand including beating their cross town rivals Sunday. After that game, LA beat Indiana & Minnesota shooting 54% & 50%... And this is their 4th game in 5 nights. Improved, yes the Clippers are but they're not in the same category as the leagues elite teams... teams like the Spurs & Celtics that can just roll every night. This is all a learning experience for most of these young players and along with that comes letdowns, tonight being one...
Wednesday 01/19: +0.57 Units (Volume 3.25 Units)
Under 191.5 Detroit / Boston 7:30 ET 2.00 Units
Detroit 82 Boston 86 Winner
Minnesota +7 / LA Clippers 10:35 ET 1.25 Units
Minnesota 111 LA Clippers 126 Lose
Monday 01/17: +/- 0.00 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
Orlando +3 / Boston 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Orlando 106 Boston 109 PUSH
Saturday 01/15: -1.25 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
Cleveland +16 / Denver 9:05 ET 1.25 Units
Cleveland 99 Denver 127 Lose
What a sitting duck lame spot the Nuggets are in tonight... oh how we wish it was someone else... ANY team other than the Cavs playing in the Pepsi Center tonight... but even with these bottom feeders, we have to play against Denver here and put our faith in the fact that the Cavs are still a professional basketball team...
Nuggets are coming off of two huge blowouts at home... 132-98 vs Phoenix on Tuesday and 130-102 vs the Heat on Thursday on TNT, and right after tonight's game Denver packs their bags for a trip to San Antonio tomorrow, then its back home for the Lakers & Thunder Wednesday & Friday... As we've said before, the NBA is a business and as with any successful business it is key for management to use resources wisely, so to put forth the energy and to play key players for big minutes against the Cavs in this spot would be bad business... 16 is a big number in the NBA. Not that Denver can't cover, even with their bench, but why should they give tonight a second thought?
Friday 01/14: +2.96 Units (Volume 3.25 Units)
Under 206.5 Detroit / Toronto 7:05 ET 2.00 Units
Detroit 101 Toronto 95 Winner
Sacramento +8.5 / NY Knicks 7:35 ET 1.25 Units
Sacramento 93 NY Knicks 83 Winner
First game home for the Knicks after a tough 6 day, 4 city western road swing (Phoenix, Lakers, Portland & Utah) going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. And before hitting the road New York hosted the Spurs on 1/04, and right before the New Year NY made the Florida trip (Miami & Orlando)... So it's been quite a 3 weeks. This is the first time the Knicks have had a chance to relax in quite some time between catching flights and ordering room service, and after tonight there's one more home game (Phoenix again) before hitting the road again for a 4 day 3 city southwestern trip (Houston, San Antonio & OKC).... The moral of the story? How can homers possibly get up here? Sure the Kings are bad on paper, having only won 8 games, but they haven't been playing all that bad lately covering 3 of their last 4 and 5 of 8 including outright wins over Denver & Phoenix as 5 point dogs in each... Look for the Knicks to take a well deserved night off tonight and be lucky to get the outright "W"... -END
Wednesday 01/12: +0.12 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Utah -6.5 / NY Knicks 9:05 ET 1.25 Units
Utah 131 NY Knicks 125 Lose
LA Clippers +7.5 / Miami 10:35 ET 1.50 Units
LA Clippers 111 Miami 105 Winner
Heat in the middle of 9 day, 5 city western swing having won the first 2 but having to go to OT in each. After Sunday's victory in Portland, Miami flew to LA where they've been idle for the past 2 days... idle basketball wise but you can be sure there's been a bit of socializing for these young players... a night out Monday for the BCS championship game and who knows what else last night. So with trips to Denver (tomorrow night), and Chicago Saturday on deck, can see Miami looking right past tonight's game at the Staples Center.... Home team has been playing decent ball of late having won their last 2 beating Golden State and Denver. Also Clippers are nice and rested having only played 4 games in the last 15 days (since 12/29) and have been home during that whole stretch. The Heat have played 7 games during that same time AND have travelled after each game... this one comes down to scheduling.
Tuesday 01/11: -1.50 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)
Cleveland +15 / LA Lakers 10:30 ET 1.50 Units
Cleveland 57 LA Lakers 112 Lose
Perfect go against spot for the Lakers having just buried the red hot Knicks at home on Sunday 109-87 and tonight starts a 7 games in 11 nights stretch for LA which continues tomorrow at Golden State, then it's back home for New Jersey on Friday, at the Clippers Sunday, back home with Oklahoma City Monday and culminates with road games in Dallas & Denver the following Wednesday & Friday (1/19 & 21). Remember, the NBA is a business and teams (especially well coached teams like LA) pace themselves accordingly. Just can't see LA getting up for the 8-29 Cavs. Can they blow Cleveland out? Of course, but why when there are much bigger fish to fry real soon.... and also LA has been known to fall asleep at the wheel when you lea`st expect it.-END
Sunday 01/09: -0.36 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Under 204.5 Sacramento / Toronto 1:05 ET 1.50 Units
Sacramento 112 Toronto 118 Lose
LA Lakers -6.5 / NY Knicks 9:35 ET 1.25 Units
LA Lakers 109 NY Knicks 87 Winner
Saturday 01/08: +3.88 Units (Volume 4.25 Units)
Detroit -1.5 / Philadelphia 7:35 ET 1.25 Units
Detroit 112 Philadelphia 109 Winner
Chicago -2 / Boston 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Chicago 90 Boston 79 Winner
Oklahoma City -7 / Memphis 8:05 ET 1.50 Units
Oklahoma 109 Memphis 100 Winner
Friday 01/07: -1.25 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
Utah +2 / Memphis 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Utah 99 Memphis 110 Lose
Wednesday 01/05: +2.51 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Milwaukee +12 / Orlando 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Milwaukee 87 Orlando 97 Winner
NJ Nets +5 / Chicago 7:05 ET 1.50 Units
NJ Nets 96 Chicago 94 Winner
Monday 01/03: +1.14 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)
New Orleans -6 / Philadelphia 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
New Orleans 84 Philadelphia 77 Winner
Sunday 01/02: +1.37 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)
Sacramento +5 / Phoenix 9:05 ET 1.50 Units
Sacramento 94 Phoenix 89 Winner
Saturday 01/01: -2.50 Units (Volume 2.50 Units)
Washington +2 / New Orleans 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Washington 81 New Orleans 92 Lose
Forget about the obvious fact of 19-14 vs 8-23, this play is all about these teams activities over the last 28 hours. Both teams played on the road yesterday on new years afternoon... The Wizards at Indiana (86-95 L) and the Hornet at Boston (83-81 W). Both travelled to Washington after their games yesterday, but the difference is the home team brought in the new year home with their families and slept in their own beds while the visitors were out and about in the nations capital. Couple this with the normal letdown factor for New Orleans having just upset the Celtics on the road and we can see the home team getting the easy win here...
Miami -11.5 / Golden State 7:35 ET 1.25 Units
Miami 114 Golden State 107 Lose
Warriors also played yesterday afternoon on the road in Charlotte beating the Bobcats 96-95 while the Heat have been home and idle since Thursday having played last in Houston on Wednesday. This is the 3rd road game in 4 days for the Warriors, and mix in their new years eve activities in South Beach last night... this one has blow out written all over it....
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