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NBA Basketball

NBA: The Most Physical Sport
To the average fan, basketball seems like such an "easy going" game. You have 10 players on the court at a time and the team with the ball is trying to get it in the net. Simple, right? WRONG! If you ever saw an NBA game live and were close to the court, you'll know what I'm talking about. There's contact, alot of it, and it's very hard at times, and unlike football, these guys don't wear pads. Of course we're not comparing the hits and tackels in football the contact in basketball but in basketball, it's a game of constant bumping and grinding while battling for position which takes it's toll on the body.

Recuperation Time in the NBA
Unlike football, you don't get a week in between games to recover, heal, and rest your body. Sometimes you're back on the court the very next night still feeling the ailments of the last game. In fact, NBA teams often play 4 games in 6 nights.

Travelling
The road in the NBA can be a cruel place for these players. Teams go on road trips of several weeks at times. That's a long time to be away from home especially after making such demands on their bodies night after night. At least when they're home, they can recoup in the comfort of their own home, go in the jacuzzi, eat a good meal, and get ready physically and mentaly for their next game. Also, the road isn't always accomodating to "Giants". These guys are over a foot taller than the average man!

Why the NBA is VERY BEATABLE
When setting the line on games in general, the main "barometer" is always teams' past performance. Of course the way a team has been playing and their average scores and margins of victory/defeat are good guidelines on which to base a number, but the NBA has the most intangibles out of any other sport. These are things that are NOT factored into the line such as teams that historically travel well and vice versa. Then there are always very big value positions being created by the inevitable leveling off of average teams. This is when average to above average teams play above their normal level. What happens is the public seems to fall in love with these teams leaving the linemaker no choice but to raise the line. So we wind up getting more points than we should when going against teams AFTER they peaked. Of course you have to be good at knowing the precise time to take your stand! That's the tricky part but we've mastered it over the years and are very successful in the NBA because of it.

Check out a sample of our Recent NBA releases. The following will give you an idea of our approach to the NBA. You will see that we don't side with the "Square Public" and we're always getting the best of it!....


Thursday 2/26/2009

Houston +3.5 /
Cleveland
8:00 ET (TNT) 2 Units
Houston 93 Cleveland 74 Winner

Under 185.5 Houston / Cleveland
1.5 Units
Houston 93 Cleveland 74 Winner

What a difference a year makes. This time last year, the Rockets were the road favorite in Cleveland (-1) and came away with the win 93-85. Then earlier this season back in December the Cavs laid 7.5 at home to these Rockets and won 99-90. So now tonight, on national TV, Houston is a 3.5 point dog at home looking to extend their current 5 game winning streak. The Cavs have also won 5 in a row (covering all 5 as well), but that's what's driving this line. 3.5 is a hefty number to cover in a tight game on the road and this is a spot we feel Houston steps up and takes a stand on their home court in a nationally televised game. We also expect both defenses to step up as is usually the case in a playoff atmosphere.

Also note this is the first game of a road trip for the Cavs as they're
off to San Antonio tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Rockets have been playing on their home court for 2 straight weeks.



Wednesday 2/26/2009

NJ Nets -1.5 / Chicago 7:35 ET 2 Units
NJ Nets 111 Chcago 99 Winner
Bargain created here by overreaction to recent results. The Nets lost 5 in  row SU & ATS before finally beating a struggling Sixers team Monday while the Bulls have won 3 of 4 both SU & ATS including blowing out a hot Magic team last night. When these 2 teams met 2 months ago in NJ, the Nets were -4.5. We feel that is still the correct number and we look for Chicago to be a bit flat here tonight after bowing out Orlando last night while shooting 56% from the field and today having to travel.



Tuesday 2/25/2009

Dallas +5 / San Antonio 8:35 ET 2 Units
Dallas 76 San Antonio 93 Lose
First game back home for the Spurs after their annual Rodeo Road Trip (8 games on the road since 2/2). It's normal to take some time getting readjusted to being home after this amount of time away dealing with the many demands these players have in their personal lives between family and friends. We expect the Spurs to be not as sharp tonight as they've been of late so grab this generous spot against their in-state rivals who will be looking to avenge their earlier home OT loss to San Antonio back in December. 



Sunday 2/22/2009

Toronto -3 / NY Knicks 12:05 ET 1.5 Units
Totonto 111 NY Knicks 100 Winner
Tough spot for the young Knicks travelling across the border for a noon time Sunday morning game after undoubtedly taking in the Toronto night life last night. These 2 teams met Friday night in NY with the Knicks pulling away by 30 (127-97), so add letdown to the equation.



Saturday 2/21/2009

Under 199 New Orlreans / Utah
9:05 ET NBA TV 1.75 Units
New Orleans 88 Utah 102 Winner
We're on the Under here for the same reasons as our Under play last night with these Hornets playing in LA. New Orleans going into last night's game was fresh off a burial of the Magic on Wednesday (117-85) while shooting 58% from the floor. The Hornets' shot wasn't as off as we thought it would be (46%), but they were still only able to score 98 points in regulation. It was a tough beat losing because of OT, just a case of "right side, wrong results."

Tonight we feel the downward shooting trend will continue for New Orleans in Utah tonight as well as the Jazz having their own shooting problems as they too have been shooting way above the norm of late (59% on the 11th vs LAL and 50% vs Memphis on the 17th). They were only able to make 32 of 77 (42%) vs Boston on Thursday (another under winner for us: 95-90) and will have trouble finding the hole again tonight.




Friday 2/20/2009

Under 207.5  New Orleans / LA Lakers 10:35 ET 1.75 Units
New Orleans 111 LA lakers 115 Lose
(*Game went to OT tied at 98)
We're looking for New Orleans to have a hard time finding the hole tonight after shooting 58% against Orlando on Wednesday and 50% Tuesday at Oklahoma. Teams' shooting usually runs in cycles. LA also off a 50% performance at Golden State (Wed.). 207.5 is a big number to get over if shots aren't falling.



Wednesday 2/18/2009

Minnesota +10 / Miami
7:35 ET 1.5 Units
Minnesota 111 Miami 104 Winner
Looking to catch Miami in a transition period here as their 2 new acquisitions from Toronto, Moon & O'Neal, are both expected to start. It's no doubt that this trade will help the Heat, but it takes time to get acclimated and learn a new system. meanwhile, the T-Wolves are one of the most improved teams in the league over the past couple of months and although they're not going to make the post season you can be sure that this young team will be giving it's all over the last 2 months of the season giving themselves something to build on. 9.5 is a nice spot in this situation.

Over 228.5 LA Lakers / Golden State 10:35 ET 2 Units
LA Lakers 129 Golden State 121 Winner
A couple of things working for us here. First is the obvious: Lakers sport the best offense in the league facing the 3rd worst defense in the league. Next is the fact that LA just played Atlanta at home last night holding the Hawks to just 83 points winning 96-83. It takes alot more energy playing defense than offense so tonight, in the 2nd game of a back to back, we look for LA to loosen up on the "D" and accept the running game the Warriors are sure to try and establish. This one should fly over.


Check out a sample of our NBA releases from the 2007/2008 NBA season. The following will give you an idea of our approach to the NBA. You will see that we don't side with the "Square Public" and we're always getting the best of it!....

Wednesday: 3/19/2008
New Orleans -5.5 / Houston
1.75 Unit
FINAL: New Orleans 90 Houston 69 WINNER
Look for signs of physical & mental wear and tear after the Rockets streak has finally ended. Now they must travel to New Orleans after their thrashing in Boston 24 hours ago. No rest for the weary.




Tuesday: 3/18/2008
Under 211 Phoenix / Portland
2 Unit
FINAL: Phoenix 111 Portland 98 WINNER
Line steadily moving up from 209 just as it should based on recent offensive performances by the Suns (Shooting 60% 2 of their last 4 games!) Not only are we firm believers of shooting percentages leveling off, but let's look at scheduling. At Portland tonight and at Seattle tomorrow nigt (2 "easy" games for the Suns), then it's back home to get ready for the hottest team in the NBA, Houston, on Friday beore going back on the road for visits to Boston & Detroit. Figure the Suns to want to play, we're not going to say slower because that's not really in their vocabulary, but not at their normal torrid pace. On the other side of the court, the Blazers not lighting it up as of late with 2 of their last 4 games not getting out of the 80's (85 & 80)

LA Lakers +5.5 / Dallas 1.5 Unit
FINAL: Lakers 102 Dallas 100 WINNER
Normally we would be all over the "trap" scenerio, I mean the Lakers are getting a pretty hefty number here. But upon further review, it seems the linemaker had no choice but to inflte the Mavs: not only winners of their last 5 SU & ATS, but by an average of 22ppg while shooting an average of 53%! But against who??? Indiana, Miami, Charlotte, NY & NJ!! As a matter of fact, the last time the Mavs beat a team with a winning record: February 4th @ Orlando 107-88, six weeks ago. And it's not like they haven't had chances either. Dallas played 6 games vs. winning clubs between 2/14 & 3/06 going 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS!!

Bottom line is this: The Mavs are back to a real opponent tonight after they terrorized the cupcakes of the East and are laying a way inflated price. When these 2 clubs met in LA back on th 2nd, the Lakers were 6.5. Is the linemaker telling us that home court is worth 12 points??? Nonsense!!

 



Monday: 3/17//2008
Clev +6.5 / Orlando 1.75 Unit 90-104 LOSE
3 games in 4 nights for the Magic coming off an unheard of 64% from the field Saturday against Indiana. Orlando only beat the Pacers by 11 despite hitting everything in site, they played the cupcake Heat on Friday and again only win by 9, and they are laying a hefty number tonight to a hungry Cavs team who we feel has a major run left in them to finish the season.




Friday: 3/14
Charlotte +10 / Houston 1.25 Units
FINAL:
Charlotte 80 Houston 89 WINNER

Scheduling jackpot for Houston. No way the Rockets are going to put much effort into this game as they have 5 "real" opponents lined up over the next week: The Lakers, Boston, New Orleans, Golden St, & Phoenix. This will be the true test for Houston as these 5 games will be played in 7 nights starting Sunday. Not saying the Rockets can't get the cover here, but against a much improved Bobcats team (5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS L7) playing with alot of enthusiam lately, we'll take the double digits!




Tuesday: 3/11
Under 213 Utah / Chicago 2 Unit
FINAL: Utah 96 Chicago 108 WINNER
The Jazz have been hitting stride offensively of late averaging 118 ppg & 55%+ from the floor over their last 5 games. That was against familiar foe. Utah travels to Chicago tonight for the first of 4 games in 5 nights, and we can't think of a better way to throw a monkey wrench into the Jazz's fine tuned machine: send them on the road. We expect Utah's shot to be a little off tonight and we also expect them to want to slow the pace a bit to make sure there's enough in the tank come Friday in Boston. This is a big enough number to withstand some scoring bursts and still stay well under.




Thursday: 3/6
Indiana +13 / San Antonio 1.75 Units
FINAL: Indiana 97 SA 108 WINNER
Really the same situation as Tuesday's NJ +11 play over these Spurs. Fourth game in six nights for SA with a trip to Denver tomorrow and on to Phoenix Sunday so Spurs will be just looking to get by tonight and conserve energy for 2 fast paced upcoming games this weekend.




Monday: 3/2
Atlanta +11 / Boston 1 Unit
FINAL: Atlanta 88 Boston 98 WINNER
Another nice go against spot for Boston. We'll play Atlanta tonight for the same reasons we played Charlotte +18 / over Boston on Friday (108-100 Boston wins but no cover): Celtics been shooting average of 55%+ now over the last 4 games so an off shooting night is likely. Can't see Boston going all out here as they have the Pistons on deck Wednesday.





Friday: 2/29
Charlotte +17 / Boston 1.25 Units
FINAL: Charlotte 100 Boston 108 WINNER
More a case of playing against Boston as opposed to on Charlotte. Can't see the Celtics blowing out tonight. This is their 2nd game home from a 5 city west coast trip. They've shot an average of 55%+ in their last 3 games so an off night shooting is inevitable...why not tonight? Figure Boston to be taking a night off in intensity here while they look forward to their next real competition next Wednesday against Detroit.

Golden St -5 / Philidelphia 1.25 Unit
FINAL: Golden St 119 Phil 97 WINNER
Phily really playing good ball lately, but there's a time and place for every team ATS! Even after the Sixer's recent run of 8-2 SU & ATS, they're still 6 games under .500. They know that making the playoffs is not going to get done by winning in the west, it's going to happen by beating Eastern teams. Much of Phily's focus down the stretch will go to preparing for familiar opponents, NOT teams they're not going to see much of. Philidelphia starts a 3 game western swing tonight at GS to face a Warrior team playing only it's 2nd game in a week! Look for the Sixers to get spanked tonight!
Daily Net: +3.55 Units




Wednesday: 2/27
Utah -1 / Detroit 1.5 Unit
FINAL: Utah 103 Detroit 95 WINNER
Perfect line value set up here as Detroit is off 3 big wins in a row (2 of them blowouts) while the Jazz were upset at Minnesota last night (we had Minny in that one). Remember, recent activity should not dictate line movements as what is the case here. We feel Utah should be a 3-4 point favorite.

Denver -8.5 / Seattle 1 unit
FINAL: Denver 138 Seattle 96 WINNER
5th game in 7 nights for Seattle who should be wore out,especially after their track meet with Golden State last night.




Friday: 2/22
Time and time again we tell you: "It's all about the value!!!" Friday night's NY / Toronto game was a perfect set up as the line was driven purely by public perception....

NY Knicks +6 / Toronto 1.75 Units
FINAL: NY 103 Toronto 99 WINNER
Just as stated in our write-up of Tuesday's Knicks +6.5 / Washington winner (113-100 outright in OT), the Knicks are the best .288 team you're ever going to see! Tonight they play in Toronto still getting a nice number. The Raptors are fresh off a 17 point thrashing of the Magic where they shot close to 60%!! Great shooting night's like these are usually followed up by off ones, so we're expecting NY to hang tough while Toronto has a hard finding the hole tonight.


More Examples of Our Approach
(Tuesday 11/27)

Memphis +5.5
/ NJ Nets
FINAL: Memphis 110 NJ 103
Jersey just got home from a 7 day road swing during which time they played 4 games (4 in 7). They won 3 of the 4 losing to Utah then beating Portland, Seattle, and the Lakers. They averaged shooting 50% during their 3 wins but only won by an average of 4 ppg. This told us that this Nets team was PRIME for a letdown beacause if they were barely winning while shooting such a good % on the road, what would happen if they slipped up and DIDN"T shoot so well?
A.:
They'd lose at home outright to Memphis!!

(Thursday 12/20)
Cleveland +2
/ LA Lakers 8:05 ET
FINAL: Cleveland 94 LAL 90
This is your classic "trap" situation tonight. We have a Cleveland team fresh off a spanking by the Knicks last night in New York (90-118) and a Laker team coming off of 2 solid wins (Chicago & the Clippers) AND LA hasn't played since Tuesday! The game opened at Cleveland -1 and has since moved to LA -2 (As of this writing and we expect it to go even higher by game time). From a glance it looks like Free Money but we see in differently. Remember, teams are never as good as they look when blowing out an opponent and never as bad as they look when getting beat by a bad team

We had the Knicks last night as a 3 point dog vs these Cavs and here was our take on that game:

New York +3 / Cleveland
...Good look ahead spot for the Cavs as they're home tomorrow night vs Kobe & Co. on TNT. The Knicks on the other hand are getting bashed in the media and should put forth a big effort tonight to silence the tough NY fans. Also let's not forget that the Cavs aren't that far ahead of theKnicks in the W L dept (11-14) so who are they to lay points on the road.

Teams, especially ones with marquee players, tend to "get up" for big games vs other marquee players: LeBron vs Kobe. Add into the mix a national TV audience and home court. What better way for a quality team to finally get it together and snap out of their funk?

(Monday 12/31)
Utah -7 / Portland
8:05 ET
FINAL: Utah 111 Portland 101
Portland has won 12 in a row, but let's not forget that this is a team that started the season out 5-12! NBA teams often run in streaks, and the #1 streak ender is the road. The Blazers travel to Utah tonight to play the Jazz after they've been home since the 17th. In fact, 9 of their 12 consecutive wins came at home.

The Jazz on the other hand are looking to snap out of their funk and what's a better motivator than playing a team that upset them twice this month (97-89 in Utah 12/11 as 13.5 point dogs AND 99-91 in Portland as 6.5 point dogs!) That brings us to the "icing on the cake" for our selection: The last time these teams met in this building, 3 weeks ago, Utah was a 13.5 point favorite and tonight they're only 7! Bargain! Why? Overreaction to Portland's current results. They're not that good! And even if they were that good, even the best of the best teams have off games in certain spots...this is one of those spots for the Blazers. We expect this number to shrink the closer it gets to game time as everyone will be in line for the "free money", so if you're considering a wager on this one, wait it out to get even more value.