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October 2009 Overall Results
Click here for full season results

-7.66 Units (Volume: 128.75 Units)


Saturday 10/31: -5.20 Units (Volume: 7.75 Units)

Vanderbilt +11.5 / Georgia Tech (Game #129/130) 7:30 ET 2 Units
Vanderbilt 31 Georgia Tech 56 Lose
One loss Georgia Tech vs 2 Win Vandy. Only problem for Tech here is they're fat and happy having not only won their last 5, and not only covering their last 5, but doing so against very tough competition (avg. pointspread was pick-em and all 5 were within 5.5 points either way), yet they won by an average of 12 ppg with their most recent victory last Saturday @ Virginia (-5.5... 34-9 Final). With Wake Forest on deck next week at home for the Yellow Jackets and a Vandy team starving for something positive in front of the home crowd and a double digit spot, we can't see GT putting forth much resistance for the cover here.. perfect "sandwich" letdown spot...

Baylor +13 / Nebraska (Game #139/140) 12:30 ET 1.25 Units
Baylor 10 Nebraska 20 Winner
Another live late season home dog as Nebraska has clearly had the wind taken out of it's sail with back to back home losses to Texas Tech & Iowa State as 10.5 & 20.5 point chalk.

UNLV +35 / TCU (Game #167/168) 4:00 ET 1 Unit
UNLV 0 TCU 41 Lose
It all boils down to the math here... we're looking at this game like we're playing a total. TCU has been stellar this season as they're undefeated at 7-0 (but only 4-3 ATS). Their defense has allowed a stingy 12 ppg while their offense is putting up 34 ppg. With UNLV scoring "par" (12 points), TCU would have to score 47 to push. The total is sitting at 57.5, a hair under the "expected" final score (47-12).

So now here's where math meets an overpriced favorite with a stretched defense in desperate need of a week off after holding their last 2 opponents to 6 & 7 points (Colorado St. & @ BYU), not to mention how they have the public under their spell after beating BYU last week 38-7!  We can't see the Horned Frog "D" stepping up for a third straight week with that kind of intensity... we're looking for the Runnin' Rebels to get at least the Frogs' average allotment (12), and probably more. UNLV can score (27 ppg avg.), and remember, for every point over 12 for UNLV, TCU must match them above the 47! So with 20 UNLV points, it'll take 56 to cover and considering TCU has only hit that mark once this season (vs Texas St. on 9/19: 56-21 laying 38.5... win but no cover), we like our chances here!

Kansas +6.5 / Texas Tech (Game #179/180) 3:30 ET 1.5 Units
Kansas 21 Texas Tech 42 Lose
just like Nebraska last week, Texas Tech was devastated at home by Texas A&M last week as -22 point chalk (30-52). It's tough for teams to rebound from defeats like this anytime soon, and we see no reason not to make a solid case for a quality Kansas team coming off of 2 legitimate losses (@ Colorado 30-34 and last week at home to Oklahoma 13-35). Before those 2 games the Jayhawks were perfect 5-0. Look for Tech to be caught on their heels this afternoon.

So. Mississippi - Houston 2 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
So. Mississippi +6.5 / Houston (Game #189/190) 1:00 ET 1.5 Units
So. Mississippi 43 Houston 50 Lose
Parlay: So. Miss (ML) +220 & Under 63 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.56 Units
So. Mississippi 43 Houston 50 Lose
Yes, the Cougars did rebound nicely the three games following their upset loss @ UTEP (41-58) winning & covering in all 3: @ Miss St (31-24 as slight dogs), @ Tulane (44-16 laying -17) & last week at home against SMU (38-15 laying -16). But it was no fluke at UTEP as the Miners racked up 305 yards on the ground to just 128 for Houston. Today it's double trouble for the home team as So. Mississippi will be pounding Damion Fletcher (598 yards) & Tory Harrison (460 yards) at them all afternoon. Once again, we feel whoever wins the ground game will win this one... nice price on the (ML) / Total parlay. We stand to make a total of +3.93 Units for our 2 Unit risk and a SM cover will secure a +0.87/Unit profit.


Saturday 10/31 NBA: -1.00 Units  (Volume: 1.00 Units)

Over 194 Dallas / LA Clippers 10:30 ET 1 Unit
Dallas 93 LA Clippers 84 Lose

Saturday 10/31: -1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)

Under 9 Runs (-110) NY Yankees (Pettitte) / Philadelphia (Hamels) 7:57 ET 1 Units
NY Yankkes 8 Philadelphia 5 Lose
We feel starting pitching will once again control the game as it's done thus far.


Friday 10/30 NBA: +4.04 Units  (Volume: 3.50 Units)

Over 187 Chicago / Boston 8:00 ET 2 Units
Chicago 90 Boston 118 Winner

Under 198.5 Orlando / NJ Nets 8:00 ET 1 Unit
Orlando 95 NJ Nets 85 Winner
Parlay: NJ Nets +10.5 & Under 198.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.3 Units
Orlando 95 NJ Nets 85 Winner
We're looking for this young Nets team to keep it close in their home opener. They're not going to do it by running with the Magic, so if NJ keeps the leash on Orlando's offense, their chances of covering are greatly increased. Whenever you have 2 plays that are dependant on each other, it becomes sensible to parlay for added value. Also, the Magic are coming off of a 56% shooting performance in their opener at home on Wednesday with Philly...


Thursday 10/29 NBA: +1.82 Units  (Volume: 2.00 Units)

Under 193 San Antonio / Chicago 8:00 ET 2 Units
San Antonio 85 Chicago 92 Winner

Thursday 10/29: +1.34 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)

World Series Game #2: (2) Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
NY Yankees (Burnett) -1.5 Runs (-110) / Philadelphia (Martinez) 7:57 ET 0.5/Unit
NY Yankees 3 Philadelphia 1 Winner
Parlay: NY Yankees -200 & Under 9 Runs (-120) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.88/Unit
NY Yankees 3 Philadelphia 1 Winner
We're coming right back with the exact same plays as last night. Again, we feel pitchng will lead the way in game 2 and the Yankees will get a much needed win to even the series befoe heading to Philly for three games and another dose of Cliff Lee.


Wednesday 10/28: -1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)

World Series Play Reminder
NYY -200 / Philadelphia 8:00 ET Risk 3.02 Units
NY Yankees 4 Games Philadelphia 2 Games Winner
(Graded in week 11/02-11/08)
For those clients who played our 2 Unit NYY -195 / LAA ALCS play on 10/16, remember we were actually forming our own World Series Futures play to end up with a better price (which we did... the price for NY to win the series (before the ALCS) was -105, and a 2 Unit risk would have yielded only a +1.90 Unit profit. By playing the ALCS fist (+1.02 Units for the 2 Unit risk) and now rolling over that +1.02 Unit profit plus the original 2 Unit risk (3.02 Units), we now stand to make +2.53 Units (+1.02 Units on ALCS & +1.51 Units on NYY -200 / Philadelphia in the WS).

World Series Game: 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
NY Yankees (Sabathia) -1.5 Runs (+125) / Philadelphia (Lee) 7:57 ET 0.5/Unit
NY Yankees 1 Philadelphia 6 Lose
Parlay: NY Yankees -170 & Under 7.5 Runs Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.01 Units
NY Yankees 1 Philadelphia 6 Lose
We're now seeing why the Yankees spent the kind of money they did to acquire CC Sabathia & A.J. Burnett this past off season... they're 2 of the 3 NY post season starters. During the first half of the season we made a lot of money going against Sabathia as it has always been the norm for him to turn it on late in the season, and since tha linemaker sets his numbers in the beginning of the year on the prior season's performance, Sabathia was overpriced in most of his early starts and the Yankees as a team were only 11-11 in CC's first 22 starts with an average lay of close to 2:1. But down the stretch, the Yanks won 15 of Sabathia's next 16 starts...

This is Sabathia's time of the year... he's virtually unhittable. In his 2 starts in the ALCS, Sabathia went 16 innings allowing just 9 hits, 3 walks and only 2 ER's while striking out 12. We're not taking anything away from Cliff Lee as he's had equally impressive post season numbers (which is why we're on the Under in the parlay), but we feel the Yankees take the all important game 1 tonight behind another strong performance from CC Sabathia. We see no value in laying -170 for a straight play so we're laying the run and a half for half a unit to win 0.63/Unit (which is more than a 1 Unit play -170 would yield). A split of these 2 plays will produce a nice profit (at least 0.12/Unit) and winning both makes us a hefty 1.63 Units for our 1 Unit risk.


Monday 10/26: +1.14 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)

Philadelphia -9 / Washington 8:30 ET 1.25 Units
Philadelphia 27 Washington 17 Winner
This line is getting pushed to the limit... up to -9 from the opener of -6.5... Although the public is all over the Eagles, the books really can't move it much higher without putting their positions in serious jeopardy of getting middled. The linemaker must know by now that he goofed. We feel this game should have opened at -10 or -11 which could have handled another point or so to -12 or -12.5, but either way, we feel this won't even be a game tonight. With division home games with the Giants & Cowboys on deck and road games at SD & Chicago after that, and sitting with a 3-2 record, Philly has to wake up and take control of their season. Forget about all the stats & trends telling you that Washington has won 3 of the last 4 in this series and that you have to go back nearly 3 years for a Philadelphia win over Washington of at least 9 points, and that these teams always play each other tight because they know each other so well... those games have nothing to do with what's happening tonight. The Eagles are coming off of an embarrassing loss in Oakland last week (we had the Raiders in that one getting more than 2 TD's citing that Philly would be looking right past them having 3 division games coming up). Of course we didn't think they'd lose the game outright! But since they did, their level of motivation tonight will be much much greater. And also let's not forget that Washington is just a bad team! The Skins have averaged just 13 ppg this season, and in their last 5 (leaving out their 17-23 loss to the Giants in their opener), they've played teams with a combined 4-29 record going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS. And they're in the middle of a renewed QB controversy...There's not a big enough line for us to take the dog here... 


Sunday 10/25: -0.62 Units Units (Volume: 10.00 Units)

Pittsburgh -6  / Minnesota 1:00 ET 1.5 Units
Pittsburgh 27 Minnesota 17 Winner
Everyone's forgetting about the Super Bowl Champs as they're a miserable 1-4 ATS (3-2 SU), but in all fairness, their only 2 losses were weeks 1 & 2 both on the road (Chicago & Cincinnati). A tremendous money making system throughout the years has been to go against the Super Bowl Champs in the first 5 weeks of the season. This is due to the inflated lines on these games due to the public automatically backing last years' winner. Now that we're approaching the half way point of the season and the Steelers have been less than impressive ATS, the overlays are gone. Today Pittsburgh is facing the "mighty" 6-0 Vikings and Brett Favre. That's all fine and good that Brett has the ability to always keep you in the game, but the Minnesota defense has been very generous giving up nearly 25 ppg vs quality opponents (taking out of the equation their wins against St. Louis (38-10) & Detroit (27-13)). The Vikings have given up 20 /Cleveland, 24 to SF, 23 to GB & 31 last week to Baltimore. Don't know how many more rabbits Brett has in his hat, and with a trip to green Bay on deck, we look for Pittsburgh to notch a solid win & cover here.
 
Houston -3 (-115) / San Francisco 1:00 ET 1.25 Unit
Houston 24 San Francisco 21 Push
Lots of trend players out there all over the Niners coming off their bye week citing that teams playing with the extra weeks' rest are 76-49-2 ATS since 2005... We say SO WHAT?!? Those 127 games played have nothing to do with San Francisco's task at hand today: beating a high scoring offensive machine on the road. Also consider that even though SF has had the extra time to prepare, much of that time has gone to fending off the media probing into the Michael Crabtree situation. Crabtree is due to play for the first time this season after settling a lengthy contract dispute. The former Texas Tech WR star has got to be feeling the jitters coming into this game, his first NFL game, especially playing in his home state with many of his friends and family in attendance. We just can't see the Niners operating smoothly while trying to get the ball to their top draft pick who has yet to catch a pass this season. San Fran is also going to see the return of RB Frank Gore who injured his ankle 2 weeks ago and is probably not 100%. This Texans' team has shown its offensive capabilities time and time again this season, so if you're not able to match them score for score, a team can find themselves down by double digits real fast... especially a team inserting a brand new offensive weapon (who hasn't played in a game environment since Texas Tech lost to Mississippi in the Cotton Bowl on January 2nd... 10 months ago!) into their arsenal... the NFL has a pre season for a reason and today the Niners are going to be reminded why...  
  
New Orleans - Miami 2 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
Miami +6.5 / New Orleans 4:15 ET 1.5 Unit
Miami 34 New Orleans 46 Lose
Parlay: Miami ML (+230) & Over 47.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.65 Units
Miami 34 New Orleans 46 Lose
Very vulnerable spot in the schedule for the Saints as they're coming into this non-conference road game a fat 5-0 SU & ATS averaging a hefty 38 ppg. On deck for new Orleans are their fist division games of the season: Monday night (11/02) vs Atlanta and 11/08 vs Carolina (both at home). Needless to say, today's contest in south Florida means very little to the 5-0 visitor in the whole scope of an NFL season. meanwhile, the Dolphins are in a similar scheduling spot having division rivals NYJ & NE (both on the road) on deck, but since Miami i is just 2-3, every game is critical. A win today puts them at 3-3 keeping pace with the 3 loss Jets & 2 loss Pats heading into the 2nd half of the season.

We're splitting our play here giving us a chance to win +4.02 Units for our 2 Unit risk. With a Miami +6.5 cover, we are guaranteed a +0.87/Unit profit, but we feel this game may very well come down to a Miami game ending drive (with the +6.5 cover secure) to win the game outright with that potential score putting the game over (ie: Miami down 21-24 with the ball and a chance to win 28-24).

Additional Note:We are notreleasing this total (Over) in our totals section (below)... we are only using it for the reasons listed here. 

Dallas -4.5 / Atlanta 4:15 ET 1.25 Unit
Dallas 37 Atlanta 21 Winner
Atlanta's (4-1 SU & ATS) coming off of 2 big wins: 2 weeks ago @ SF (45-10) & this past Sunday night in front of a national audience as they handled the Bears 21-14, and next week the Falcons remain on the road to face division rival New Orleans. As for Dallas, they're chugging along at 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS with a couple of bad losses: 31-33 at home against the Giants in week 2 and 10-17 @ Denver in a game they had well in hand. Also their last game (10/11), the Chiefs took the Cowboys to OT but Dallas came away with the "W" (26-20). This type of play from "America's Team" gets the public questioning them and ultimately "jumping ship" but we're not buying into that concept just yet. Dallas is coming off their bye week and if ever a team needed the extra time to take a deep breath and regroup, it's the Cowboys.

We look for a renewed Dallas team this afternoon, anxious to redeem their early season sub par play, give their fans something o cheer about as they catch a fat Atlanta team off guard.   

NY Giants -7 / Arizona 8:20 ET 1.25 Units
NY Giants 17 Arizona 24 Lose
Perfect spot for NY as they got their bad game out of their system last week in New Orleans 927-48) and now face an overrated Arizona team (3-2 SU & ATS). Who did the Cardinals beat? Jax, Houston & Seattle (3 teams with a combined 8-10 record). And who did they lose to?  SF & Indy (8-2 combined record). Get the point? Arizona was only able to score a total of 26 points in their 2 wins, losing by a combined 26-51 count. Don't see them improving today as they make the trip out east to the Meadowlands. Don't let the -7 scare you... that's what it's designed to do...   

Totals Section
Special Note:
There are generally no write-ups on totals due to the nature of our selections. While the line maker bases his number on a pre determined formula of past performances, stats, and trends, we have our own exclusive calculations that that have been very successful throughout the years. They are based on complex math equations integrated with public perception and line movements.

Under 45.5 Indianapolis / St. Louis 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Indianapolis 42 St. Louis 6 Lose

Under 44.5 New England / Tampa Bay 1:00 ET 1.5 Units
New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 Winner

Sunday 10/25: +2.92 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)

Parlay: NY Yankees (Pettitte) -180 / LA Angels (Saunders) & Under 9.5 Runs (-115) Risk 1 Unit to win 1.90 Units
NY Yankees 5 LA Angels 2 Winner
Were looking for NY to finish this series off tonight. Don't like having to lay -180, but by parlaying the big price to the Under we're now getting +190. We're expecting a tightly pitched game by both sides due to what's at stake (especially for LA).

Released Friday 10/16
NYY - LAA Series Play
NY Yankees -195/ LA Angels 7:55 ET Game 1 Start Risk 2 Units
NYY 4 Games LAA 2 Games Winner (+1.02 Units)
Note: This is a play on the NYY - LAA Series in addition to our ALCS - NLCS parlay play yesterday. We are playing this play with the full intention of rolling the entire profit along with the original ALCS risk over on the Yankees in the World Series....

This play was designed to squeeze your bookie for a better futures price on the Yankees to win the World Series BEFORE the NYY/LAA ALCS. The Futures price at that time was NYY -105 but by playing the Yanks in the ALCS first and rolling over the profit AND original risk, we stand to make 10% - 25% MORE... click here for our complete write-up which gives a full explanation.

NOTE: We are grading this play now and are re-releasing our WS play on NY for a risk of 3.02 Units (our original 2 Unit risk PLUS the 1.02 Units we just won on NYY -195 / LAA in the ALCS. 


Saturday 10/24: -5.20 Units (Volume: 11.00 Units)

Ohio State -16 / Minnesota (Game #323/324) 12:00 Noon ET 1.5 Units
OSU 38 Minnesota 7 Winner
The Buckeye's are coming off of one of their worst games in recent history: an 8 point loss on the road to Purdue last Saturday (18-26). Up until that game, OSU's only blemish was a 3 point loss to the Trojans in week 2 (15-18). With New Mexico State on deck next for the Buckeye's, had they won last week as they were supposed to, we'd be off of this game figuring it to be a look ahead spot having to go into Happy Valley in 2 weeks to face Penn State, but under the current circumstances, we feel Jim Tressel will have his team super focused in what is now a very important game to win.

Baylor +9.5/ Oklahoma State (Game #337/338) 12:30 ET 2 Units
Baylor 7 Oklahoma State 34 Lose
Classic 'sandwich" game for Oklahoma State as they're looking ahead to Texas next week and are coming off of 2 big wins: 33-17 last week vs Missouri and 36-31 at Texas A&M on 10/10. Meanwhile, after starting the season 3-1, Baylor has lost their last 2 games (both on the road) to Oklahoma & Iowa State, so with a tough go the rest of the season (Nebraska, @ Missouri, Texas, @ Texas A&M & Texas Tech), this is a pretty much must win for the Bears if they're thinking about getting 6 wins this year.

Mississippi -6.5/ Arkansas (Game #373/374) 12:20 ET 1.5 Units
Mississippi 30 Arkansas 17 Winner
Arkansas let a golden opportunity get away last week on the road as they had the Gators on the ropes but just couldn't apply the knockout punch (20-23 F). Many are looking at this game in the light that this is an underestimated Razorback team having blown out Auburn (44-23) & Texas A&M (47-19) in their 2 prior games to last week, but we see it differently. We feel Arkansas has now peaked and will come crashing back down to earth this afternoon as they take to the road again to play Mississippi.

Washington +10 / Oregon (Game #349/350) 3:30 ET 1.75 Units
Washington 19 oregon 43 Lose
Big time revenge for the Huskies here as Oregon has beaten them 5 years straight, most recently in last years' opener 10-44. Of course you need more than just a will to win in a revenge situation, and in this case we also have an overconfident Oregon team (5-1 this season with 5 straight wins including the last 3 outscoring their opponents by a total of 99 points!) AND they're looking ahead to a date with USC on the road next week. Can't see the Ducks going all out this afternoon considering their scheduling position of today's game.   

Missouri +13 / Texas (Game #357/358) 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Missouri 7 Texas 41 Lose
Texas is 6-0 SU but only 1-4-1 ATS. This week they face a Missouri team coming off of back to back losses (@ Okl. St & Neb.). The linemaker is still giving the Longhorns big time respect as they're laying nearly 2 TD's on the road. Had MO not lost their last 2, this line would have been single digits because of Texas' lack of covering this season, so we feel we're getting between 2-4 points the best of it at this price. 

Florida -22 / Mississippi State (Game #387/388) 7:30 ET 1.5 Units
Florida 29 Mississippi State 19 Lose
We look for the Gators to take nothing for granted here, especially on the road. Of course Florida should come away with the win, and this is a hefty enough number to make a case for the home dog especially considering Florida's near debacle to the Razorback's last week, but this Gator team has been known to make a statement or two via the scoreboard before. Look for not only Tim Tebow, but the Gator defense to silence the critics this week leaving last weeks' performance in it's wake. Once MSU falls behind and is forced to abort the running game, it'll be light's out as Florida pulls away late.

SMU +16/ Houston (Game #389/390) 7:30  ET 1.5 Units
SMU 15 Houston 38 Lose


Thursday 10/22: -1.25 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)

Under 8.5 Runs (-105) NY Yankees (Burnett) / LA Angels (Lackey) 7:57 ET 1.25 Units
NY Yankees 6 LA Angels 7 Lose


Wednesday 10/21: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)

Released Thursday 10/15
Series Play (Parlay): Risk 2 Units
Parlay: NY Yankees -185 / LA Angels & LA Dodgers -130 Risk 2 Units to win 3.46 Units
LAD Lost Series 1-4
Please note that we are parlaying the Yankees & Dodgers to each win their series... we are passing on tonight's Philadelphia - LAD NLCS game 1.

Value wise, this is the only way for us to play these 2 series plays because in order to win the same as our 2 Unit parlay risk (3.46 Units), we'd have to risk over 5 Units (about 2.6 Units on each series), and if we split, we'd lose between 0.5/Unit - 1 Unit anyway. This way we're cutting our exposure by two thirds.


Monday 10/19: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)

San Diego -3 (-120) / Denver 8:30 ET 2 Units
San Diego 23 Denver 34 Lose
Line Note: Tonight's line is -3 (-120) in some spots and -3.5 (Even) in other spots. We recommend laying the -3 (-120) (you may have to buy the half point if your book has the game -3.5 (even)

Are the Broncos for real with their 5-0 SU & ATS record...? ... and are the Chargers as bad as their 2-2 record...? Our answer is no to both. San Diego is a respectable 2-2 as they've beat the teams they were supposed to beat: Miami & Oakland and lost to 2 tough opponents: Baltimore & Pittsburgh. Yes, San Diego's defense resembled a big block of Swiss cheese in their loss to the Steelers on Sunday Night Football 2 weeks ago (their last game before their bye week), but we figure the week off sufficient time to make the proper adjustments to make sure their defense is not embarrassed for a 2nd straight nationally televised game.

This an extremely important game for the Chargers because a loss would drop them to 3 games back of Denver in the AFC West where as a win will put them right in the thick of what's shaping up to be a 2 horse race for the division (Oakland is 2-4 with all sorts of problems and KC is a dismal 1-5). It won't be the same tonight without Phillip Rivers having Jay Cutler on the opposite sideline to jaw at, but it's sure to have all the makings of the rivalry these teams have created.

Taking a closer look at Denver's accomplishments so far, here we see a classic example of a team who's had all the stars line up just right in order to be perfect thus far. It all started on opening week in Cincinnati with the fluke TD off the Bengals' players helmet that went for the winning TD and continued ever since with wins over the Browns, at Oakland, then against Dallas with a miracle 4th quarter comeback, and culminating with perhaps the sweetest victory of them all for young Coach McDaniels...beating the Patriots and his mentor at home in OT last week 20-17.

So getting back to our original question... can we say this Broncos team is for real... no, we can't. There's been too many fluke plays and last minute comebacks that real championship caliber teams would never have had to overcome in the first place because they'd have never been in those positions to begin with. We're not saying the Broncos aren't a good team, but just be careful before jumping on the "fat" +3.5 points you can get with a 5-0 team playing a 2-2 division rival coming off a bad loss on national TV... things aren't always what they seem in the NFL, especially against a quality team with a quality QB in a desperate spot for a win at home against a division rival on Monday night...

Monday 10/19: -1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)

LA Dodgers (Wolf) +108 / Philadelphia (Blanton) 8:07 ET 1 Unit
LAD 4 Philadelphia 5 Lose


Sunday 10/18: -1.27 Units (Volume: 10.25 Units)

Jacksonville -9.5 / St. Louis 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Jacksonville 23 St. Louis 20 Lose
Both teams coming off of terrible losses last week: the Jags getting blown out at Seattle 0-41 and the Rams 10-38 at home to the Vikes. The difference here is that Jacksonville actually has a talented team with solid coaching and the potential to make the post season despite their 0-2 start while St. Louis is simply a bad team. We're the first to tell you that a team is usually not as bad as they appear when getting blown out, but we're making an exception here. Last week the Rams blew a golden opportunity to get their first win against Minnesota. They had caught the Vikings in a bad scheduling spot having just played (and won 30-23) Favre's first game against Green Bay on Monday night, and were looking ahead to Baltimore (today). The Rams found a way (3 turnovers deep inside Viking territory) to score only 10 points and lose a game in which they had 400 yards of offense and 27 first downs. And they also found a way to give up 38 points despite holding Adrian Peterson to a mere 69 rushing yards. Bad teams don't regroup after losses like these. And good teams, like Jacksonville, are capable of putting a 0-41 shutout behind them and realize that with a win today, they're 3-3 and all is forgotten about their 0-2 start.  

Pittsburgh -14 / Cleveland 1:00 ET 1.5 Unit
Pittsburgh 27 Cleveland 14 Lose
Don't think there's a number big enough to scare us off of this game. The Browns notched their first win last week in Buffalo 6-3, but that's just it... their scoring capabilities. Cleveland has averaged a measly 11 points per game (and that's before trading away Braylon Edwards...)  and you can be certain of one thing... that won't get it done against a Steelers offense averaging 23 ppg. Yeah, Pittsburgh is also allowing 20 ppg, but that average is sure to get adjusted this afternoon against an inept Cleveland team. After a close call against Detroit last week and just a 3-2 record, we feel Pittsburgh will hold nothing back here in a game they dominate on paper in every aspect.     

Oakland +14.5 / Philadelphia 4:05 ET 1 Unit
Oakland 13 Philadelphia 9 Winner
After making a case for these Raiders last week against the Giants and getting crushed (7-44), we're coming right back with them. Remember, last week we told you it was more a case of going against NY as opposed to playing ON the Raiders, and once again we find ourselves in a similar spot. A couple of things are for sure here. One, Oakland will not finish the season averaging less than 10 points a game (as they are now) and two, Philadelphia will not finish the season averaging 31 ppg. Of course there is no telling when these phenomenons will straighten out, but as 2 TD road chalk and coming off of home wins of 19 & 20, having to travel out west, and looking ahead to a trio of division games next: at Wash, NYG (home) & Dallas (home), and Philly already having their bye week, this looks like as good a spot as any for Philly to take another bye week and enjoy the California sights & sun. 

Arizona +3 (-120) / Seattle 4:05 ET 1.25 Units
Arizona 27 Seattle 3 Winner
Just when everyone's given up on last year's Super Bowl runner up (2-2 SU & ATS), we look for Arizona to start building momentum into the 2nd half of the season. Had the Cards not dropped a very winnable game in their opener with SF which would have made them 3-1, this line would be close to a pick. And considering the Seahawks are feeling nice and fat after shutting out Jax last week, nice spot for the road win.

Totals Section Special Note:
There are generally no write-ups on totals due to the nature of our selections. While the line maker bases his number on a pre determined formula of past performances, stats, and trends, we have our own exclusive calculations that that have been very successful throughout the years. They are based on complex math equations integrated with public perception and line movements.

Under 37 Kansas City / Washington 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Kansas City 14 Washington 6 Winner

Under 47.5 NY Giants / New Orleans 1:00 ET 1.5 Unit
NY Giants 27 New Orleans 48 Lose

Over 46.5 Arizona / Seattle 4:05 ET 1.25 Unit
Arizona 27 Seattle 3 Lose

Under 45.5 Chicago / Atlanta 8:20 ET 1.25 Unit
Chicago 14 Atlanta 21 Winner


Saturday 10/17: -1.20 Units (Volume: 10.75 Units)

Clemson -7.5 / Wake Forest (Game #123/124) 12:00 Noon ET 1.25 Units
Clemson 38 Wake Forest 3 Winner
We don't like that this one has moved to -7.5 off the opening number of -6 and the more recent -7 (earlier this morning), but even at this price value still exists. What is keeping this number low is the "at-a-glance" stats: Clemson 2-3 & WF 4-2... Clemson lost to Maryland (at Md) in their last game (21-24 on 10/3) while WF beat Md in their last game (42-32 on10/10). These short term occurrences really mean nothing and they don't change the fact that Clemson is the better team here. Remember, a team's recent performance is not an accurate measuring stick of overall capabilities, and when there is a situation of 2 teams going in opposite directions, many times that is what gives us the added value needed to gain an edge. Also remember that Wake was laying -13 to the Terps at home last week while Clemson laid the same price to Md on the road in their game. had Clemson won that game, today's number would have been double digits... and since they lost, today's game with WF becomes crucial and will have the entire teams undivided attention.

NC State +2.5 / Boston College (Game #111/112) 3:30 ET 1.5 Units
NC State 20 Boston College 52 Lose

Wisconsin -2.5 / Iowa (Game #119/120) 12:00 Noon ET 1.25 Units
Wisconsin 10 Iowa 20 Lose

Virginia -3 / Maryland (Game #121/122) 4:00 ET 1 Unit
Virginia 20 Maryland 9 Winner

UCLA +3.5 / California (Game #151/152) 3:30 ET 1 Unit
UCLA 26 California 45 Lose

Alabama -18 / South Carolina (Game #147/148) 7:45 ET 2 Units
Alabama 20 South Carolina 6 Lose

Kansas St. +6 / Texas A&M (Game #157/158) 7:00 ET 1.5 Units
Kansas State 62 Texas A&M 14 Winner

Arizona St -6.5 / Washington (Game #195/196) 10:15 ET 1.25 Unit
Arizona State 24 Washington 17 Winner


Friday 10/16: +1.25 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)

NYY - LAA Game 1
NY Yankees (Sabathia) -1.5 Runs (+125) / LA Angels (Lackey) 7:55 ET 1 Unit
NYY 4  LAA 1 Winner
This is the time of the year when CC Sabatha is at his best. Unlike most pitchers, Sabathia gets stronger the deeper into the season it gets. You'll recall earlier in the year, the Yankees were only about 50-50 in Sabathia started games and since these games came with such big price tags, CC was an extremely poor investment early on (and we took full advantage of the situation!) Even laying -175 tonight on the ML is holds value, but we're laying the -1.5 runs instead thus cutting our risk in less than half (it would take over a 2 Unit risk at -175 to win the same 1.25 Units a 1 Unit RL play will yield).

NYY - LAA Series Play
NY Yankees -195/ LA Angels 7:55 ET Game 1 Start Risk 2 Units
Note: This is a play on the NYY - LAA Series in addition to our ALCS - NLCS parlay play yesterday. We are playing this play with the full intention of rolling the entire profit along with the original ALCS risk over on the Yankees in the World Series....

Of course it's real tough to argue that the Yankees are by far the team to beat this post season.. that's not the issue here. You don't need us to recommend a futures play on New York. The issue is the robbery by your bookie! Don't be a square and fall for the Yankees futures price to win the World Series (currently -105)... We are going to show you how, at this price, books are raping their players to the tune of an additional 25% juice... it all boils down to simple math and a pretty easily speculated World Series price the Yankees will lay if they do beat the Angels.

For round number purposes, we're going to use $1,000 as our "futures" bet on NY to win the World Series. If you simply succumb to your bookmakers futures line of NYY -105 to win the Series, you'll net a profit of $952 for your $1,000 risk ($952 x 1.05 = $1,000). But if you bet your risk amount now on the Yankees -195 / LAA in the ALCS with the intention of rolling the entire proceeds, including your original $1,000 risk, over to the Yankees in the World Series, NY would have to be greater than a -350 favorite for you to make less than your $952 you would have stood to make in your futures play now.

Considering that NY opened at -210 against the Angels and was immediately bet down to -185 before creeping back up to -195 today, there's no way the Yankees, if they indeed do get to the World Series, will be anywhere near a -350 favorite. We estimate them to go off at around -200 to -250 against either the Phillies or the Dodgers. If NY is -200, the payout on your $1,000 risk will be $1,270: the $512 profit from the ALCS (NYY -195: Risk $1,000 to win $512 in the ALCS) + the $756 profit after rolling the $512 ALCS profit + the original $1,000 risk on to NYY -200 in the Series (that's one third more money in your pocket for the same exact risk: $952 x 1.333 = $1,269).

And even if the Yanks go off higher, there's still big value because there's no way they'll ever go off anywhere near the -350 mark as explained above is what it will take to prove this method of betting NY to win the WS incorrect.... Here are the other price scenarios:

Remember, with $1,000 risked on the Yanks -195 in the ALCS, you're making $512 profit so in each of the following examples your WS bet (risk) will be $1,512:

NYY -225: Risk $1,512 to win $671... $1,183 profit as opposed to $952... 24% more
NYY -250: Risk $1,512 to win $604... $1,116 profit as opposed to $952... 17% more
NYY -275: Risk $1,512 to win $550... $1,062 profit as opposed to $952... 12% more
NYY -300: Risk $1,512 to win $503... $1,015 profit as opposed to $952...   7% more

So you see, the "easy" looking bet of NY -105 for the series is not a fair price, and with a little manipulation and ingenuity, we once again are beating the bookmakers at their own game... the game of advantages!! It's thinking like this that has enabled us to have the success we did this year in MLB. In closing remember, although we do like NY to win it all this season, there really is no value in the price of -105 right now, but there is great value in what we anticipate once the post season whittles down to the remaining 2 and we are left holding a NY Series ticket at a price range between +101 and +127!
Good luck and enjoy the Fall Classic! 


Thursday 10/15: PENDING (Volume: 2.00 Units)

Series Play (Parlay): Risk 2 Units
Parlay: NY Yankees -185 / LA Angels & LA Dodgers -130 Risk 2 Units to win 3.46 Units
Please note that we are parlaying the Yankees & Dodgers to each win their series... we are passing on tonight's Philadelphia - LAD NLCS game 1.

Value wise, this is the only way for us to play these 2 series plays because in order to win the same as our 2 Unit parlay risk (3.46 Units), we'd have to risk over 5 Units (about 2.6 Units on each series), and if we split, we'd lose between 0.5/Unit - 1 Unit anyway. This way we're cutting our exposure by two thirds.

Tuesday 10/13: -1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)

Arkansas State +2.5 UL Monroe 8:00 ET ESPN 1 Unit
Arkansas State 10 UL Monroe 16 Lose
Both teams here are not following preseason predictions. Arkansas St. was picked to finish towards the top of the Sun Belt while UL Monroe was picked to finish much lower, yet it's Monroe with the perfect 2-0 Conference mark (3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS Overall/season) and ASU 1-3 SU & 1-2 ATS/season. But remember, Ark St. played Nebraska & Iowa (and nearly upset the Hawkeye's: 21-24 as 3 TD dogs in their last game). And their loss to Troy State was by only 3, 27-30.

Arkansas State's main problem this season has been in defending the pass. Their run defense has been solid allowing just 106 yards per game (3.4 ypc). UL Monroe is primarily a running team under normal circumstances and considering there is an 80% chance of rain, we doubt Monroe will be passing much.

Monroe is coming off of 2 conference wins against FAU & Fla International (a game in which they had nearly 600 yards of offense including 300+ rushing yards), a performance which will be tough to duplicate against the rushing defence of Arkansas St.

This is a very important game for ASU if they want any chance of competing in the Sun belt this year where as Monroe could very well be looking right past this game considering their 2 big recent wins and they have Conference rival Troy (also 2-0 in conference play) next.


Monday 10/12: -1.25 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)

Under 36.5  NY Jets / Miami 8:30 ET 1.25 Units
NY Jets 27 Miami 31 Lose


Sunday 10/11: +4.87 Units (Volume: 8.50 Units)

Kansas City +7.5 / Dallas 1:00 ET 1.5 Units
Kansas City 20 Dallas 26 Winner
Yeah, it's tough to go against a 2-2 Dallas team obviously in desperate need of a win, but just as was the case last week with our upset special on Jacksonville over the Titans, before that game the buzz around Squareville was "... Tennessee can't possibly start out 0-4, can they..." when in reality, the real question should have been the one we asked "... How can Tennessee have started out 0-3 after the year they had last season... something must be wrong!!"

The Cowboys, on a downward spiral, now find themselves in a road favorite of more than a TD role... not a good spot for our money. of course we don't have to play the game, but we feel there's real value here. Remember, KC head coach Todd Haley was Arizona's offensive coordinator from 2007-2008, and KC's defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast was Arizona's DC from 2004-2008. Together Haley & Pendergast figured out a way to beat Dallas last year, and despite not having the same weapons here as they did in Phoenix last year, they have the confidence in their game plans and are also getting a hefty +7.5 at home as opposed to +4.5 on the road (the Dallas/NYG line in last years' game: a 30-24 OT victory for the Cards).

One more note: Haley was the Cowboys' wide receivers coach from 2004-2006 and was in Dallas under Bill Parcells when Tony Romo started in '06...

Oakland +15.5 / NY Giants 1:00 ET 1.5 Unit
Oakland 7 NY Giants 44 Lose
This is much more a case of betting against the Giants as it is betting on the Raiders. Realize what the Giants have accomplished en-route to being 4-0. After beating Washington at home 23-17 to open the season, they went on the road for the next 3: first to Dallas beating another conference opponent in a thriller which saw 8 lead changes before Lawrence Tynes' 37 yard FG won it for NY with :04 left (33-31). Then it was on to Tampa Bay where the G-Men shut out the Bucs 24-0 and most recent at Kansas City last week once again winning big, 27-16, which would have been more had it not been for a late meaningless score by the Chiefs down the stretch.

On deck the Giants have New Orleans next Sunday who are also undefeated. In fact, NY's schedule is brutal for the next 4 weeks after today because after the Saints the Giants are home against the Super Bowl runner up Cardinals on 10/25, at conference foe Philly on 11/01 and then home against the Chargers... all this coming before their bye week! There's no way we can see the Giants getting up for today's game against the lowly 1-3 Raiders. If NY does wind up covering this hefty number it'll be because Oakland just laid down which we really can't see happening. The Raiders have shown some fight in them early on, especially in their opener playing San Diego right down to the wire (20-24), and coming back the following week with a road win at KC (I know, big deal everyone beats the Chiefs lately, but an NFL road win is still a road win). With Oakland seemingly becoming offensively challenged these past 2 weeks scoring a total of 9 points against Denver & Houston, this one sets up nicely with a 2+TD spot in a big look ahead spot for the Giants.

Atlanta +2.5 / San Francisco 4:05 ET 1.5 Units
Atlanta 45 San Francisco 10 Winner

Seattle -1.5 / Jacksonville 4:15 ET  1.5 Units
Seattle 41 Jacksonville 0 Winner

Totals Section Special Note:
There are generally no write-ups on totals due to the nature of our selections. While the line maker bases his number on a pre determined formula of past performances, stats, and trends, we have our own exclusive calculations that that have been very successful throughout the years. They are based on complex math equations integrated with public perception and line movements.

Under 42.5 Cincinnati / Baltimore 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Cincinnati 17 Baltimore 14 Winner

Under 41 New England / Denver 4:15 ET 1.25 Unit
New England 17 Denver 17 OT (Final pending) Winner


Sunday 10/11: -1.50 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)

NY Yankees - Minnesota 2 plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Minnesota (Pavano) +1.5 Runs (-110) / NY Yankees (Pettitte) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 1 NY Yankees 4 Lose
Parlay: Minnesota +160 & Under 9.5 Runs (-112) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.96 Units
Minnesota 1 NY Yankees 4 Lose
Well, the stage is set for Carl Pavano to face his former employer for the first time since becoming a Twin. Pavano started  twice this season for Cleveland against the Yankees but despite pitching very well (13 1/3 innings, 11 hits, 1 walk & just 4 ER's: 2.70 ERA & 0.90 WHIP), he did not factor in the decision in either of those games (Cleveland won 1 & lost 1).

Pavano was a key factor in Minnesota's late season run which won them the AL Central by the slimmest of margins. Even though Pavano was just 4-4 W/L in his 11 Minnesota starts, the Twins as a team won 8 of the 11 and more importantly, 5 of the last 6 down the stretch (since 9/9).

We haven't had any cooperation in either of our previous 2 releases in this series (-1 Unit in game 1: Minn & under, & -2 Units in game 2: NYY -1.5 and a parlay of NYY (ML) & Under but the Yanks won a 1 run low scoring game and we lost both). We'd like to avoid going on tilt in this series, but the risk/reward here is definitely worth he 1.5 Unit investment. We stand to make nearly 3 Units overall (2.87), and the best part is Minnesota can lose a 1 run game (and be swept), and we'll still come out with a 0.41/Unit profit. We feel Minnesota will hang tough at home and force a game 4 at home, especially with the added motivation driving Pavano and the fact that he has handled the NY line-up earlier this season. The Twins know that with a win here, anything can happen in a short series.


Saturday 10/10: +1.82 Units (Volume: 5.25 Units)

Central Michigan -22.5 / Eastern Michigan (Game # 313/314) 12:00 Noon ET 1 Unit
Central Michigan 56 Eastern Michigan 8 Winner
EMU has won 4 of their last 5 meetings with CMU despite being the underdog all 5 times. Two years ago, the Eagles beat CMU 48-45 on the road as 14 point dogs. They outscored the Chippewas 20-7 in the 4th quarter of that game. And most recently, EMU won at home 56-52. In that game the Eagles' Andy Schmitt passed 80 times completing 58 of them for 516 yards. Needless to say, the Chippewas are coming into this one with big time revenge on their minds and now have the luxury of facing Kyle Mcmahon at QB for EMU as Andy Schmitt is out for the season with a torn ACL. Yes, a big adjustment has been made in the line because of this, but we feel it's still not enough as CMU gets an early lead and doesn't let up... best MAC offense vs poor defense of EMU and the Eagles missing their starting QB leaves them no way to recover from an early deficit.

Arkansas +3 -120: (Buy 1/2 point) / Auburn (Game # 373/374) 12:00 Noon ET 1.25 Unit
Arkansas 44 Auburn 23 Winner
Nice spot to play Arkansas in a must win for them as they already have 2 losses and  travel to Florida next. The Razorbacks are hosting the 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) Auburn Tigers. But don't get blinded by early season results comparisons... Auburn beat Ball St as 30 point chalk, Miss St laying 15, La tech -13.5, W. Virginia -7 and most recent at Tenn (26-22), their only time as a dog. Meanwhile Arkansas had to travel to Alabama 2 weeks ago and got destroyed by the Tide 7-35 getting 17.5. They beat Texas A&M last week 47-19 as a small favorite and we feel that victory will prove to be the catalyst here against an overconfident Tiger team.

Baylor +28 / Oklahoma (Game # 375/376) 3:30 ET 1.5 Units
Baylor 7 Oklahoma 33 Winner
The Sooners lost at Miami last week 20-21, this coming after 2 consecutive shutouts to Idaho St & Tulsa by a combined 99-0 score. At a glance, one can certainly make a case for Oklahoma having a chip on their shoulders and rolling today after losing in Miami as 7.5 road chalk. But no, we see it different. Sam Bradford is making his return debut this afternoon after going down in their opener at Wake Forest on 9/05. it's tough for a QB coming off a month+ long absence to step right in and expect for the machine to run smoothly. This line has been bet all the way up to -28 (from -23).

UCLA +3.5 / Oregon (Game # 365/366) 3:30 ET 1.5 Units
UCLA 10 Oregon 24 Lose
Oregon off of back to back blowouts: 52-6 over Wash St & 42-3 over Cal. OK, they were supposed to destroy WSU last week, but the Ducks were 5.5 point dogs against Cal 2 weeks ago. Meanwhile the Bruins lost last week at Stanford. We expect an over confident Oregon team to get caught with their guard down against UCLA at home looking to avenge last weeks loss. Don't forget that this Oregon team was totally outplayed in their opener at Boise State being held to just 6 first downs and 152 yards.


Friday 10/09: -1.09 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)

Minnesota - NY Yankees 2 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
NY Yankees (Burnett) -1.5 Runs (-145) / Minnesota (Blackburn) 6:07 ET 1 Unit
NY Yankees 4 Minnesota 3 Lose
Parlay: NY Yankees (ML) -290 & Over 9.5 Runs (-110) Risk 1 Unit to win 1.57 Units
NY Yankees 4 Minnesota 3 Lose
We stand to make 2.26 Units here for our 2 Unit risk. Not a bad return considering NY is close to a 3:1 favorite on the money line. As we've done all season, we're playing our thinking and in turn manipulating the odds in our favor. The only thing we must avoid here is a NY 1 run, low scoring win, which we feel will not be the case. And as long as we win our run line play, we're guaranteed a profit... the parlay is a bonus.

Nick Blackburn has been pitching way over his head lately. In his last 4 outings, Blackburn has a 1.00 WHIP along with a 1.66 ERA (5 ER's in 27 1/3 innings), and considering his ERA this season is 4.07, and he's been known to get knocked around (especially the second half of the season: 6 times since the All Star break Blackburn's gotten hammered). We feel this is the perfect spot for the Yankees to continue their offensive dominance on a far inferior team.

Under 8 Runs (-110) Boston (Beckett) / LA Angels (Weaver) 9:37 ET 1 Unit
Boston 1 LA Angels 4 Winner


Thursday 10/08: +0.95 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)

LA Angels (Lackey) -105 / Boston (Lester) 9:37 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 5 Boston 0 Winner


Wednesday 10/07: -4.25 Units (Volume: 4.25 Units)

Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Colorado (Jimenez) / Philadelphia (Lee) 2:37 ET 1.25 Units
Colorado 1 Philadelphia 5 Lose

Minnesota - NY Yankees 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Minnesota (Duensing) +340 / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 6:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Minnesota 2 NY Yankees 7 Lose
Parlay: Minnesota +340 & Under 9.5 Runs (-110) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 3.70 Units
Minnesota 2 NY Yankees 7 Lose
This is CC Sabathia's time of the year... this is why the Yankees went out and got him for an ungodly amount of money... to win when it counts! So why are we playing Minnesota? There are several reasons...

First, the Twins are in a groove now. The MLB postseason is all about getting hot at the right time, and I think it's safe to say that winning 5 straight and 17 of their last 21 to steal the AL Central from the Tigers qualifies Minnesota in the "hot category!" Sure, they're tired (both physically & emotionally) after playing a 12 inning one game playoff for the division last night in Minneapolis, but this team is on a high right now that can't be matched. Often times its that head of steam that is needed to elevate a big underdog.

Also, Sabathia got shelled his last time out. He didn't  make it out of the 3rd inning giving up 8 hits, 5 walks & 5 ER's! Granted it was a meaningless game (the last game of the season in TB), but its not like he tried to get shelled... there very well may be something wrong with him... we'll see.

But either way, to risk just 1 unit in this spot for a possible payout of 5.40 Units is swell worth it. Also, Brian Duensing has been solid since coming out of the bullpen in late August to start. He's 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA as a starter this season.
 
St. Louis (Carpenter) -136/ LA Dodgers (Wolf) 9:37 ET 2 Units
St. Louis 3 LA Dodgers 5 Lose
There's a reason you have to lay a hefty road price of -136 here to a team with a better regular season record... Chris Carpenter! Many times you'll hear us talk about a pitcher saying that "when so an so is on, he's un-hittable..." but in the case of Chris Carpenter, he's "on" about 95% of the time! Of his 28 starts this season, Carpenter's given up 0 runs 9 times and just 1 run 6 times!! He's struck out 144 batters this season while walking only 38 (4:1) and his ERA is a blistering 2.24! The only way we see LA beating Carpenter tonight is with a flawless outing b Randy Wolf, but considering he's allowed 4 or more ER's 9 times this season (vs only 3 by Carpenter), we like our chances here.


Monday 10/05: -2.50 Units (Volume: 2.50 Units)

Under 46.5 Green Bay / Minnesota 8:30 ET 1.5 Unit
Green Bay 23 Minnesota 30 Lose
Parlay: Minnesota (ML) -210 & Under 46.5 Risk 1 Unit to win 1.78 Units
Green Bay 23 Minnesota 30 Lose
Student vs teacher in the Metrodome tonight. Favre has a huge axe to grind with the Green Bay brass as he's taken it personally after not being offered his old job back before last season when he changed his mind on retiring. Granted his indecisiveness was a bit immature, but after putting his heart and soul into the Packers for the better part of 2 decades, he feels (and rightfully so) he should have been extended the courtesy to be able to finish his career in Green Bay. But instead, the ultimate decision was that after preparing Aaron Rodgers for the job they were not going to change that decision... talk about a lack of respect for a franchise player! So what if Rodgers had to wait another year or two for his shot or if he seeked employment elsewhere... The Packers organizations' loyalty should have been with Brett Favre, NOT Aaron Rodgers (our opinion).

Enough on what's gotten us to this game. We're risking a total of 2.5 Units on the Under (46.5) tonight... 1.5 Units straight and a 1 Unit parlay with Minny on the ML (-220) paying 1.78:1. We don't like getting too far past the -3 mark in a game like this, but we do feel the Under is the more solid play. If any team knows Brett Favre's passing game, it's his old team which is why you're going to see much different game plan tonight. That game plan has a name, it's called Ardian Peterson! Sure, Brett will be passing, but its going to be important to keep the Green Bay defense off balance, and the best way to do that is to set the pass up with the run. If it works well (like we expect), the Vikings could very well wind up blowing the game wide open with long sustained drives. And when Green Bay does have the ball, you can be sure the fired up Minnesota fans are not going to make it easy for the Packers to communicate on the field (lots of 3 & outs).

It's amazing how Favre has been able to compete at the level he has through his 30's. If this were week 9 or 10, we'd be hesitant to play the Vikings because that's about the time of the season when the game starts taking its toll on players, especially older ones. We feel Minnesota's recent success will carry on to about the half way mark of the season which will continue driving their lines up and very big value positions will be available going against the Vikings down the stretch. Their stock is already rising through the roof as this game opened at Minn -3 and has risen to -5 which is why we're playing the money line parlay as opposed to laying the 5.


Sunday 10/04: +2.44 Units (Volume: 9.50 Units)

Jacksonville +3/ Tennessee 1:00 ET 1.5 Unit
Jacksonville 37 Tennessee 17 Winner
Big value exists here as this is a case of one team (Tennessee) seemingly a "good" team (13-3 last year)knocking on the door in each of their first 3 games but losing them all by a total of 13 points... and a bad team (Jacksonville coming off a horrible season last year) who seem to have continued right where they left off last season by losing their first 2 games to Indy & AZ before surviving last week 31-24 at Houston. But the truth we feel is that Jeff Fisher's Titans perhaps came into this year a bit cocky while the Jags come in as a hard working "humble" team with talent and anxious to redeem themselves, especially in front of the home crowd. We feel the opening line of this game (Tenn -1) is closer to the truth, and couldn't argue if the Jags were the small favorite, but seeing this one go to Tenn -3 gives us great value.

New England -1 / Baltimore 1:00 ET 1.5 Units
New England 27 Baltimore 21 Winner
So to whom do we owe thanks to for this soft line? It ain't the line maker, that's for sure... he tried to do close to the right thing by opening at NE -3 but the masses jumped at the number like piranhas betting Baltimore all the way down to +1. Are the Ravens the newest "Elite" of the NFL? Maybe, but have they really proved themselves yet this year? They opened the season by beating KC at home easily (38-24... laying 13 ....surprise surprise). Then they came out on top of a see-saw battle in San Diego 31-26, and most recently last week beat up on the poor Browns 34-3 once again as 2 TD chalk. Let's see what happens now as they start their "real" season this afternoon in Foxborough... and it doesn't let up much from here on out. They have the revamped Bengals and the Super Bowl Champ Steelers twice each along with the likes of Brett Farve and the Vikings, Indy, Green Bay & Chicago. They only have 3 "soft" spots left in their schedule: Cleveland, Detroit & Oakland.

Realize also that the Ravens haven't lost a game (including pre season... and sweeping the exhibition season is usually the kiss of death for a team) since Pittsburgh knocked them out of the playoffs in the AFC championship game.... so that's 7 in a row. Also note that even though Baltimore held Cleveland to just a field goal, they gave up 26 & 24 to SD & KC... so which Baltimore defense will show up today is question #1 and question #2 is can Joe Flacco & the rest of the Ravens offense continue to score at the rate of 34 ppg? We think not on both counts, but we feel that's what they're going to have to do to best an "On track" Patriots team with its leader finally showing signs of his old, dominant self...  

Dallas (ML) -135 / Denver 4:15 ET 2 Units
Dallas 10 Denver 17 Lose
Denver's 3-0 record and their stats to go along with it (6.5 points per game/254 yards per game) have to be the most misleading ever! Dallas may not win this game, but one thing is for certain... the Broncos will not finish the season with numbers that look anything close to these! The public is extremely driven by raw numbers lying on the surface that really don't mean anything. The fact that Denver is 3-0 with their defense holding all 3 opponents to single digits and Dallas is 2-1, with 2 of those games being in front of a national audience with the Cowboys & Tony Romo looking anything but sharp, is what's driving this soft number...

We'll play the Cowboys on the money line now that the number has dropped from -3 (last night) to -2.5 (-115). To lay an extra 20 cents and not have to worry about the game working itself into a "odd score" 1 or 2 point rhythm which can happen very easily when a team goes up say 7-6 out of the gate is well worth it... A 2 Unit risk will net +1.48 Units. 

Totals Section

Special Note:
There are generally no write-ups on totals due to the nature of our selections. While the line maker bases his number on a pre determined formula of past performances, stats, and trends, we have our own exclusive calculations that that have been very successful throughout the years. They are based on complex math equations integrated with public perception and line movements.

Over 41.5 Tennessee / Jacksonville 1:00 ET 1 Unit
Tennessee 17 Jacksonville 27 Winner

Under 42.5 NY Giants / Kansas City 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
NY Giants 27 Kansas City 16 Lose

Over 40.5 Detroit / Chicago 1:00 ET 1.25 Unit
Detroit 24 Chicago 48 Winner

Under 37 St. Louis / San Francisco 4:15 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 0 San Francisco 35 Winner


Sunday 10/04: +3.29 Units (Volume: 2.50 Units)

Detroit (Verlander) -1.5 Runs (+115) / Chicago WS (Danks)
1:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner

Parlay: Detroit (Verlander) -200 / Chicago WS (Danks) & Over 7.5 Runs (-105) 
1:05 ET Risk 0.5/ Unit to Win 0.96/Unit
Detroit 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner

Parlay: Detroit (Verlander) -200 / Chicago WS (Danks) &
Minnesota (Pavano) -220 /  Kansas City (Hochevar) 1:05 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 1.18 Units
Detroit 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner | Minnesota 13 Kansas City 4 Winner | Parlay Winner

Be sure to read our plays carefully as they may be a bit confusing at a glance.

It's amazing that we're revisiting the AL Central after all business seemed to be decided when the Twins and Tigers split their 4 game series thus leaving the magic number for Detroit to clinch at 1 with 3 games to play... but here we are as the only possible scenario to get us here happened: Minnesota won their last 2 over the Royals while Detroit dropped their last 2 to the White Sox. Both teams control their own destiny. With both teams doing the same as the other today, there will be a one game playoff for the division on Tuesday.

We're on both teams to win as you can see as Justin Verlander gets the start for Detroit and Carl Pavano for the Twins. You'll recall we've been on Pavano in both of his last 2 starts... both very important outings. The first was on 9/25 against these Royals as Minnesota was making their move. They had won 9 of their last 10 and were steadily gaining ground on Detroit. Every game was crucial at that point and we cited how this was Carl Pavano's chance to shine for his new team, especially since his contract with the Twins relies heavily on his production. This is the case of course because of Pavano's situation in NY with the Yankees, so now it's "... produce or we're not going to pay you..." Pavano won that game and was given the ball next in the crucial third game of the Tigers series after the two teams split the first 2. Minnesota desperately needed to win the next 2 games to keep in control of their own destiny but Pavano got rocked for 7 hits, 2 walks and 7 ER's in just 4 2/3 innings (2-7 Lose). That was on the 9/30, so he's coming back on 4 days' rest but only threw 83 pitches. All the stops will be pulled out by both teams here so Pavano will be asked to get them to the 6th with a shot before turning it over o the bullpen. So here is Carl Pavano's chance once again to come through big time for his team which we think he will take seriously and turn in a career performance.

But our main play is Detroit... all 3 of our plays hinge on the Tigers winning. We're at risk for a total of 2.50 Units with a possible upside of 3.29 Units. We feel the Tigers will get to John Danks early en route to a big win. With Detroit covering our 1 Unit ML play (+1.15 Units), our total risk is reduced to just 0.35/Unit, but if the Detroit - WS game also goes over, we're guaranteed a 1.11 Unit profit regardless of Minnesota's outcome.


Saturday 10/03: -2.38 Units (Volume: 6.75 Units)

Syracuse +6.5 / South Florida 12:00 Noon ET 1.25 Units
Syracuse 20 South Florida 34 Lose
No question that South Florida is becoming an elite football program as they're now undefeated (4-0) this season and fresh off a road win against in state rivals Florida State last week (17-7) as 14 point dogs (a 1.5 unit play for us Saturday). But hold everything! That game in Tallahassee last week was an enormous win for the Bulls, a kind of changing of the guard in Florida. Now the Bulls travel to Syracuse to face the Orange who will certainly remember the beating sustained at SF last year (13-45). Syracuse can put some points on the board (26 ppg this season) so after the last 2 weeks of near perfect defense by the Bulls, and such a huge win for the program at FSU, we can see them exhaling a bit here and quite possibly being handed their first loss of the season.

Kentucky +16.5 / Alabama 1 Unit 12:20 ET
Kentucky 20 Alabama 38 Lose
Letdown, sandwich spot for the Tide here as Alabama just blew out Arkansas last week (35-7) and are looking forward to playing on the road again next week at Mississippi. We look for 'Bama's defense to breathe a little here after holding each of their last 2 opponents to just 7 points each (Arkansas & No. Texas)., and at the same time we expect Kentucky to be up for this game after being held to just 7 points last week at Florida (7-41 F). (The Wildcats can put some points on the board: 42-0 @ Miami (Oh) & 31-27 vs Louisville) 

We had both Alabama & Florida last week, 2 nice winners, and if you've been following us you know that a big part of our success is latching on to certain teams for multiple weeks / games in a row either on or against them... 

Florida State -4 / Boston College 3:30 ET 1.5 Units
Florida State 21 Boston College 21 Lose
Don't let FSU's 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS record this season fool you. Bobby Bowden's team is still a very talented team and always poses a threat to the opponent. The Seminole's 2 losses this year were at the hand of 2 in state rivals: Miami & South Florida. The Bulls are becoming an elite football program and last weeks' win was very big for them, even beyond the scoreboard. It's going to help them tremendously with recruiting down the road. And the Miami - FSU rivalry has been going on for decades and is one of the fiercest in all of college football. It just so happens that the 'Noles lost to both of these in state rivals within a span of 3 weeks, but let's not forget the beating they put on BYU in Provo (54-28). That was no fluke but rather the product of a focused Bobby Bowden football team (that game was right after a near disaster against Jacksonville State as FSU won by just 10: 19-9 and 2 games after the Miami loss).

This game sets up nicely all around because BC had to go to OT last week to beat Wake Forest (27-24), and when matched with Clemson the week before... well it was no match! The Eagles were held to just 54 yards of offense! That's not going to get it done against a Seminole team in the market for a big, confidence building win.

USC -4/ California 8:00 ET 1.5 Units
USC 30 California 3 Winner
Well, it doesn't get any better than this to squeeze every last bit of value out of the line maker! USC is just 1-3 ATS this season despite being 3-1 SU... but it's their lackadaisical play against inferior early season competition that is getting us this soft line today. The Trojans opened the season with a 56-3 pasting of San Jose State (as they should have... laying -33.5). Then it was the win but non cover at Ohio State (18-15 laying -7). But the big story here is USC's last 2 weeks: 9/19 at Washington the Trojans lost outright to the Huskies 13-16 as three TD chalk, and then last week at home against Washington State, USC was still not taking the game seriously as the won 27-6 laying -46 points! So now with a date with California, we feel it's time for the Trojans to wake up as they can ill afford another loss. Had USC been playing anywhere near the potential this season, this line would be a TD+.

Meanwhile, Cal got blasted by Oregon last week 3-42, but they're going to have to wait until next week at UCLA to get back on track because just like Oregon did to them last week the Trojans will do tonight: stop the California run (just 77 yards on 32 carries last week in Eugene). The Trojan offensive line should be able to handle California's solid defense giving Barkley ample time to operate. This line is down to -4 from the opener of -6 (which is still too low a number if your judgement is not clouded by short term deviations that all teams experience).

San Diego State -17 / New Mexico State 8:00 ET 1.5 Units
San Diego State 34 new Mexico State 17 PUSH
Oh how we hate laying this kind of wood but this one has blowout written all over it not to mention how 'easy" it looks to the naked eye (that's a polite way of saying "from a square's perspective") to back the dog here. New Mexico State's got 2 wins and SDS has only 1... and one of those NMS wins was at NM as 11.5 point dogs last week! But digging a bit deeper, realize that NMS has installed a new offense & a new defense this year and these things take time to learn. Sure, it worked well for the Aggies last week at NM, but NM is in a class well below San Diego State. Look for the Aztecs to get a much needed win at home tonight behind the QB - WR duo of Ryan Lindley and Vincent Brown.


Saturday 10/03: +1.48 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)

LA Dodgers (Kershaw) -135 / Colorado (De La Rosa) 10:10 ET 2 Units
LA Dodgers 5 Colorado 0 Winner
The biggest game of the season thus far for both clubs. A Colorado win would force a one game showdown tomorrow in LA with the winner taking the NL West. As well as Colorado has played down the stretch, we just can't see them finishing by sweeping LA in LA. Sure, on paper that looks like a tall order but considering Colorado already won the first game, a win tonight will mean just one more. You can be sure Joe Torre is going to pull out all the stops to prevent that from happening. Clayton Kershaw gets the start for LA and it'll be Jorge De La Rosa for the Rockies. De La Rosa has been showing some signs of fatigue lately as he's given up 10 hits, 6 walks & 9 ERs in his last 2 starts (just 7.1 innings of work), yet the Rockies have managed to win both of those games. We feel this is the end of the NL west road tonight for Colorado as LA clinches behind Clayton Kerswaw.


Friday 10/02: +1.37 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)

Under 53 Pittsburgh / Louisville 8:00 ET 1.5 Unis
Pittsburgh 35 Louisville 10 Winner
Both teams playing off of short weeks and both teams played on the road last week (Louisville the last 2 weeks away from home), so we don't expect either offense to be very sharp. What we do expect, however, is a big effort on defense from Louisville. After terrible tackling at Utah last week, Cardinals head coach Steve Kragthorpe has centered much of this weeks practices around defense. We can't back Louisville plus the points solely because of this, but with a number of 53 with a struggling team playing its first home game in a month, we feel the defense will step up enough to keep this one under even if Pitt does pull away in the end.


Thursday 10/01: +0.32 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)

Colorado - WV 2H (released at halftime)
Over 28 1 Unit
Colorado 14 West Virginia 24 Winner

Colorado - West Virginia 3 Plays Total Risk 2.50 Units
Colorado +17 / West Virginia 7:45 ET 1 Unit
Colorado 24 West Virginia 35 Winner
Under 56 Colorado / West Virginia 1 Unit
Colorado 24 West Virginia 35 Lose
Parlay: Colorado (ML) +475 & Under 56 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 4.99 Units
Colorado 24  West Virginia 35 Lose
Beware the trap! Lots & lots of talk about how CU Head Coach Dan Hawkins is on the hot seat in Boulder after opening the season 1-2 despite being favored in all three. The biggest blow came at home against Colorado State in their first game losing outright 17-23 as 13 point chalk. The following week the Buffaloes went down at Toledo 38-54 laying -3.5 on the road and most recently (9/19) Colorado finally took a stand shutting out Wyoming 24-0 in front of the home crowd. 

Meanwhile, West Virginia lost their last game as well (9/19 at Auburn 30-41) despite out-gaining the Tigers 509-400. But -5 in the turnover department (5 INT's) will allow for these phenomenons to take place.

Also there's much hype regarding revenge (which is totally unwarranted as far as we're concerned). Colorado beat WV a year ago 17-14 at home as slight 2.5 point dogs. Also, the hype angle has much to do with the making of this number (+17) as does the recent unexpected poor play of Dan Hawkins' team and the heat this has brought to the organization. We feel this number is a bit out of whack... should be in the -10 range.. and would be had it not been for CU's first 2 losses. Recent deviation from the norm, whether it's a team overachieving or a team underachieving, always demands harsh line adjustments thus creating some very positive value spots. There's no reason for us to believe that CU won't put up the fight of their lives here since they know they beat WV last year AND they're fresh off a bye week after shutting out Wyoming last.

The way we're structuring our plays is not necessarily designed to show a profit tonight, but rather put us in a position for a very big payday with a little cooperation down the stretch. If CU can remain within striking distance for the win, that would mean it will most likely be a low scoring game (under) and/or CU should cover the 17... So splitting our 2 main plays reduces our overall risk to 0.59/Unit. Our upside for this equation is +6.81 Units for our 2.50 Unit overall risk. And there's also the possibility of winning our side & total plays but losing the parlay which would yield a +1.32 Unit profit.

Important Note:
Dependng on the halftime score, we may be looking to hedge in the second half since we're on a parlay paying 10:1. If CU has a solid HT lead, we may play the 2nd half to try and catch a middle. We'll send this out to everyone so be sure to check your e-mail or log in to view the play on our site. We'll send a message whether we're playing at the half or not...