Tuesday 9/29: -1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Detroit (Verlander) -1.5 Runs (+125) / Minnesota (Duensing) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 6 Minnestota 5 Lose
Not about to lay -160 to a team on a roll (Minnesota closed the AL Central gap to 1 game with their 3-2 win this afternoon in game #1 DH). We'd have to risk twice as much (2 Units) for the same +1.25 Unit payout. Value here lies only in the run line.
Monday 9/28: +1.82 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Under 48 Carolina / Dallas 8:30 ET ESPN 2 Units
Carolina 7 Dallas 21 Winner
Monday 9/28: +1.10 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Atlanta (Jurrjens) -1.5 Runs (+110) / Florida (Sanchez) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 4 Florida 0 Winner
Sunday 9/27: +1.21 Units (Volume: 8.75 Units)
Tennessee +2 / NY Jets 1:00 ET 1.5 Unit
Tennessee 17 NY Jets 24 Lose
Tennessee will be highly motivated for this game for several reasons. First, the obvious: they're 0-2 and nobody likes to start their season 0-3! The Titans got nipped by Houston last week 31-34 and today face a Jets' team who handled this same Texan team in week 1 with ease... 24-7.. Also factor in revenge for last years 34-13 home thrashing by NY. The Titans will be eager to welcome Mark Sanchez to the NFL!
Cleveland +13.5/ Baltimore 1:00 ET 1 Unit
Cleveland 3 Baltimore 34 Lose
Sure, this could very easily be a blowout, but to continue putting up the kind of offensive numbers the Ravens have been thus far is unlikely. We figure Baltimore is going to try and regress back to their defensive roots today. Although they've scored 31 & 38 in weeks 1 & 2, they've also given up 26 & 24... not a good game plan when heading into Foxborough next week for a date with the Patriots. Baltimore may very well be looking right past these Browns and if that's the case, 2 TD's is a big number to cover!
New England -4.5/ Atlanta 1:00 ET 1.5 Units
New England 26 Atlanta 10 Winner
Cheap price to get the Pats at home, but its all made possible because of meaningless recent results. Don't be fooled by the lack of scoring last week. Remember, the Pats & Jets are arch rivals and you can be sure the NY defense was preparing all week for that opportunity in front of the home crowd. We look for Tom Brady to get on track today. Like we've said in the past, if you wait for a situation to return to normal before jumping on it, it's too late as the value is gone. This line would be -7 plus if Brady was Brady... value lies in predicting these sways of performance.
Denver -1.5 (-115) / Oakland 4:15 ET 1.5 Units
Denver 23 Oakland 3 Winner
Oakland's win at KC last week is about as phony as awin can come! Its strange how things happen because either way you slice it the Raiders should be a 1-1 team thus far because by all accounts they should have beaten the Chargers in their opener (20-24 loss), so perhaps the KC was a way for the football gods to even the score. Last week KC out-gained Oakland 409-166 and out first downed them 25-11 and out time of possession-ed them 38-22 ... but the Chiefs were only able to put 10 on the board losing 10-13. If the stars don't all line up the same today, it could be a long afternoon for the home fans!
Totals Section
Special Note:
There are generally no write-ups on totals due to the nature of our selections. While the line maker bases his number on a pre determined formula of past performances, stats, and trends, we have our own exclusive calculations that that have been very successful throughout the years. They are based on complex math equations integrated with public perception and line movements.
Under 37 Tennessee / NY Jets 1:00 ET 1 Unit
Tennessee 17 NY Jets 24 Lose
Under 44.5 Miami / San Diego 4:15 ET 1.25 Units
Miami 13 San Diego 23 Winner
Under 38 Denver / Oakland 4:15 ET 1 Unit
Denver 23 Oakland 3 Winner
Sunday 9/26: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Chicago Cubs (Wells) +119 / San Francisco (Cain) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago Cubs 1 San Francisco 5 Lose
Wow, look at the Cubs now! They've caught SF (in the loss column) and are actually alive in the NL wild card race (very slim chance with 4 teams ahead of them), but the point is they're hot right now and the Giants are ice cold (and Matt Cain has been awful in his last 3 starts giving up 15 ER's in 14 innings!)).
Even though barring a miracle neither of these teams will make the post season, look for the Cubs to complete the sweep if for no other reason than to believe in themselves and carry the momentum into the off season for next year.
Minnesota (Liriano) +168 / Kansas City (Greinke) 2:10 Et 1 Unit
Minnesota 1 Kansas City 4 Lose
OK, we'll bite! Forget about the pitching match-up. Give us the team who's won 12 of their 13 to close the gap in the AL Central to just 2 games AND controls their own destiny (series with Detroit is next for the Twins) AND we're getting a fat +168 price against a team going nowhere fast (KC has now lost 4 in a row).
Saturday 9/26: +0.07 Units (Volume: 9.00 Units)
Illinois +14 / Ohio State (Game# 307/308) 3:30 ET 1.25 Units
Illinois 0 Ohio State 30 Lose
Illinois is off an early season bye week after playing just 2 games. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have played 3 straight weeks and are coming off of a 38-0 shutout @ Toledo (as -22 point chalk, but these are the "stats" in which the public relies on thus driving the line). Also helping to get us the very generous spot is the beating Illinois took at home by Missouri (9-37) to open the season. OSU is way overpriced here...
Michigan State +2 / Wisconsin (Game# 315/316) 12:000 Noon ET 1 Unit
Michigan State 30 Wisconsin 38 Lose
Alabama -17.5 / Arkansas (Game# 349/350) 3:30 ET 1 Unit
Alabama 35 Arkansas 7 Winner
Yes, Arkansas is seeking revenge here for last year's 14-49 thrashing, but you need the team to carry out the revenge and the Razorback's simply don't have it. Their defense is terrible as they gave up 533 yards last week to Georgia on 8.9 yards per play. If they give Alabama anywhere near those numbers it will be lights out by halftime.
Florida -20 / Kentucky (Game# 351/352) 6:00 ET 1.25 Units
Florida 41 Kentucky 7 Winner
Tim Tebow, if you haven't noticed, is a fierce competitor and is never satisfied with just a win. So last week's "lame" 23-13 victory at home over the Volunteers (as 30 point chalk) has to have him, and the rest of the team, a bit concerned. Normally in a scheduling spot like this (Florida travels to LSU next), we'd be thinking "look ahead" but with a bye week before their date with the Tigers, we feel Tebow will hold nothing back here!
South Florida +14/ Florida State (Game# 357/358) 12:00 Noon ET 1.5 Units
South Florida 17 Florida State 7 Winner
USF will rely on its solid defense here, along with knowing that although the Seminoles blasted BYU last week 54-28 on the road, the Cougars gained 512 yards on offense in that game while rushing for almost 6 yards per carry! FSU won the game in the turnover department.
BYU -17.5 / Colorado State (Game# 363/364) 6:00 ET 1 Unit
BYU 42 Colorado State 23 Winner
This is a very soft line created by overreaction to recent results. CSU is 3-0 while BYU is 2-1 and recently got beat at home (28-54) by FSU in a game, as mentioned in our USF write-up above, that the Cougars actually outplayed the 'Noles but lost the game on turnovers. If BYU holds onto the ball here, they should roll by 30... easily.
Texas Tech PK / Houston (Game# 381/382) 9:15 ET 2 Units
Texas Tech 28 Houston 29 Lose
Perfect spot for a letdown by Houston after upsetting Oklahoma State on the road in their last game (9/12) 45-35 as 15.5 point dogs! Now they've had a bye week to stop the momentum and come back down to earth. The Cougars won't catch Tech napping like they did Okl St (after their opener with Georgia (24-10 Win), Ok St schedule was all "cup cakes" for the next 3 weeks: laying -15.5 to Houston, -32.5 to Rice on 9/19 & today they have a non board game: Grambling)
Saturday 9/26: -0.75 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
NYM - Florida 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Florida (West) -1.5 Runs (+150) / NY Mets (Maine) 7:10 ET 0.5/Unit
Florida 9 NY Mets 6 Winner
Parlay: Florida (ML) -135 & Under 9 Runs (Even) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.24 Units
Florida 9 NY Mets 6 Lose
Chicago WS (Garcia) -122 / Detroit (Robertson) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 5 Detroit 11 Lose
Freddy Garcia has been pitching very well of late as the WS have won 3 of his last 4 starts, the only loss coming in his last outing vs KC (1-2) where Garcia went 8 innings giving up just 5 hits & 2 ER's. This White Sox team is not laying down despite being completely eliminated. In fact, Sox manager Ozzie Guillen got himself thrown out of last night's game late after cursing the home plate umpire out (from the dugout) because of some very questionable balls & strikes calls. If you've ever watched Ozzie manage his team or have seen any of his press conferences, you know that he's a competitor... to the bone. And the fact that he's involved in potentially deciding the fate of who wins the AL Central (only 2 games separate Minnesota & Detroit), that's good enough for him to manage here like it's game seven of the World Series!
Friday 9/25: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Nevada +7.5 / Missouri 9:00 ET ESPN 2 Units
Nevada 21 Missouri 21 Lose
Both teams start the season doing the opposite of the expected... Missouri is 3-0 after losing much of last year's 10-4 team... Gone for the Tigers on offense are their leading passer, and key tight end & WR. On defense, gone are 7 All Big-12 players. Nevada on the other hand is 0-2 despite much of their team from last year still in tact... go figure!!
One thing is for sure though, we're not ready to count the Wolf Pack out just yet. Remember, teams are rarely as good as they seem when rolling just as they're not usually as bad as they seem when losing. But the line will always adjust in order to reflect these occurrences thus creating some nice value.
We feel this line tonight should be no more than Missouri -3! Not only are the Tigers flying way above expectations, but there are a couple other specific factors that need to be accounted for. First, this is a big revenge game for Nevada as they were humiliated by Missouri last year 17-69 while giving up 651 total yards! And second, this is the perfect letdown spot for Missouri because their bigger tasks lie right around the corner... dates with Nebraska (Thursday, 10/8 on national TV), @ Oklahoma State (10/17) & Texas (10/24). So a trip to Reno may very well be the distraction needed to facilitate this upset. Nevada is 19-8 ATS at home since 2004, which we feel is no coincidence! Grab the FAT touchdown plus!
Friday 9/25: +2.98 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)
Over 8 Runs (+105) Atlanta (Vazquez) Washington (Lannan) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 4 Washington 1 Lose
Parlay: Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) +146 / SF Giants (Lincecum) & Under 7 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.80 Units
Chicago Cubs 3 San Francisco 0 Winner
We're going to continue with our "spoiler" angle tonight in San Francisco, only this time we're only risking a half unit. Carlos Zambrano has got to be at the top of the list of frustrated Cubs as he's pitched extremely well throughout the season (the Cubs are 17-9 in Zambrano's starts) only to see the Cubs as a team come apart at the seams. Once again, we expect a full effort out of Chicago despite playing for nothing and a very focused Carlos Zambrano on the hill as he faces the Giants' ace Tim Lincecum. If Zambrano is on, this is an extremely winnable parlay at the hefty price of 3.6:1.
Minnesota (Pavano) -107 / Kansas City (Tejeda) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 9 Kansas City 4 Winner
The Twins are in a "fight to the finish" battle with Detroit as they're 3 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central. Unlike the wildcard race in the NL, Minnesota controls their own destiny because they have a big 4 game series with Detroit coming up next. In the NL WC race, Colorado is 3.5 ahead of Atlanta & 4 ahead of Florida & SF, but the Rockies don't have to face either of them anymore. And what makes the AL Central battle even more significant is that the loser goes home... no wild card, so every game for both these teams is extremely important.
So it all sets up nicely for Carl Pavano, the newest Twin, to be the hero. After his start tonight against this red hot KC team, he'll be scheduled to pitch next either Wednesday or Thursday in Detroit in a game that may very well have a big impact in deciding the winner of the AL Central. Pavano's contract with the Twins relies heavily on performance, so here's his chance to shine by getting back to the form he had in his early days with the Marlins.
Chicago WS (Peavy) -1.5 Runs (+125) / Detroit (Bonine) 8:10 Et 1 Unit
Chicago WS 2 Detroit 0 Winner
Jake Peavy's 2nd start for the White Sox after returning to the rotation on 9/19 (5 strong innings vs KC). It's always tough to predict how a pitcher will perform after such a long layoff (Chicago acquired Peavy in June, and his last start with SD was 6/8), but if Jake is on tonight, we expect him to be unhittable so we'll lay the run and a half. The ML is a steep -165, so we'd have to risk over 2 Units to win the same 1.25 Units that our 1 Unit RL play will yield. As long as the WS don't win a 1 run game, it's the correct way to limit our risk.
Thursday 9/24: -1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Over 53 Mississippi / South Carolina 7:45 ET ESPN 1 Unit
Mississippi 10 South Carolina 16 Lose
Thursday 9/24: +1.85 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Chicago Cubs (Dempster) -108 / San Francisco (Penny) 10:15 ET 2 Units
Chicago Cubs 3 San Francisco 2 Winner
The only thing left for the Cubs is to play the spoiler and tonight they start a weekend series in San Fran against the Giants who are chasing Colorado (along with the Marlins & Braves) for the NL wild card. You can rest assured that this Cubs team is not going to lay down, especially with Ryan Dempster starting.
Wednesday 9/23: +1.75 Units (Volume: 2.50 Units)
Philadelphia - Florida 2 Plays Total Risk 1.50 Unts
Over 8.5 Runs (-105) Philadelphia (Hamels) / Florida (Vandenhurk) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 6 Florida 7 Winner
Parlay: Florida +126 & Over 8.5 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.80 Units
Florida 7 Philadelphia 6 Winner
Parlay: Colorado (Marquis) -200 / San Diego (Stauffer) & Boston (Beckett) -200 / Kansas City (Hochever) Risk 1 Unit to win 1.25 Units
Colorado 3 San Diego 6 Lose, Boston 9 Kansas City 2 Winner | Parlay Lose
Tuesday 9/22: 0 Units (Volume: 0 Units)
Pass: No MLB Tuesday
Monday 9/21: +0.91 Units (Volume: 1.00 Unit)
Indianapolis -3 / Miami 8:35 ET 1 Unit
Indianapolis 27 Miami 24 Winner
We never like to be on the same side as the "squares", but even a broken clock is right twice a day!
Miami had a great year last year winning 11 games, but many of those games were won on defense. In fact, the Dolphins scored 17 points in only 3 of their last 9 games! We can't see Miami stopping Manning and company. Although Indy only scored 14 last week against Jacksonville winning 14-12, it really wasn't nearly that close. The Colts out gained the Jags on offense 365 - 228.
Miami's simply not getting any respect from the lines-makes as they were a dog last week and they're a dog again here at home on Monday night despite their big turnaround last year (from worst to first). We think this lack of respect is totally warranted and we look at Miami's success last year as having a lot to do with many breaks going their way... more than a team should have. This is supported by the fact that they led the league in turnovers (+17 diff) but were toward he bottom in yardage. If a team has to depend on turnovers to win... they're done before they start!
We look for the Fins to stat in an 0-2 hole and quite possibly 0-3 after their trip to SD next week on a short week.
Monday 9/21: -1.50 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)
Arizona (Buckner) Even / San Francisco (Zito) 9:40 ET 1.5 Units
It's only fitting that it's Barry Zito who puts one of the final nails in SF's wild card coffin! Forget about Zito's recent "surge" where he's 5-2 (4 ND's) over his last 11 starts... it's phony! Bottom line is the Giants got ripped off when they acquired him from Oakland in 2007 as he's 30-42 in 95 starts with the Giants with an ERA well into the 4's... NOT $100 Million material and tonight he'll prove it when he loses with his team needing a win in the worst way!!
Sunday 9/20: -1.35 Units (Volume: 11.00 Units)
Detroit +10 / Minnesota 1:00 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 13 Minnesota 27 Lose
Figure to catch the Viking looking ahead to their Monday night game vs Green Bay in week 4 and their home opener next week vs SF. Can't see Minny exerting much energy here against the lowly Lions.
Carolina +6 / Atlanta 1:00 ET 1 Unit
Carolina 20 Atlanta 28 Lose
Cleveland +3 / Denver 4:15 ET 1.75 Units
Cleveland 6 Denver 27 Lose
Denver pulled off a miracle in their game last week beating Cincy while only scoring 12 points and their defense holding the Bengals' offense to just 7. No fluke plays today against a Browns team that played the Vikings very tough for most of the game last week (10-13 HT... 20-34 F).
Baltimore +3 (+105) / San Diego 4:15 1.5 Units
Baltimore 31 San Diego 26 Winner
The mighty Baltimore defense had 24 put up against them last week against KC. Although the Ravens did win the game (38-24), you can bet this weeks' defensive practices were gruelling! Meanwhile, SD is coming off their Monday night near disaster at Oakland escaping with a slim 24-20 win and are operating on a short week. Look for Phillip Rivers to get knocked around and hurried all afternoon!
Chicago +3 (-120) / Pittsburgh 4:15 ET 1.5 Units
Chicago 17 Pittsburgh 14 Winner
There's always value going against the Super Bowl champs early in the season because the public will always back them thus inflating the number. With the recent news of the loss of Chicago's Brian Urlacher, and also tight end Desmond Clark, we feel the Bears will be super focused on all aspects of their game. Many times when a team is missing key players, the extra energy put forth to pick up the slack outweighs the results they'd normally have at full strength. We'll back the home dog here.
Totals Section
Special Note:
There are generally no write-ups on totals due to the nature of our selections. While the line maker bases his number on a pre determined formula of past performances, stats, and trends, we have our own exclusive calculations that that have been very successful throughout the years. They are based on complex math equations integrated with public perception and line movements.
Over 41 Houston / Tennessee 1:00 ET 2 Units
Houston 34 Tennessee 31 Winner
Under 43 Carolina / Atlanta 1:00 ET 1.25 Unit
Carolina 20 Atlanta 28 Lose
Over 38.5 Cleveland / Denver 4:15 ET 1 Unit
Cleveland 6 Denver 27 Lose
Sunday 9/20: +3.79 Units (Volume: 2.50 Units)
Philadelphia (Lee) Even / Atlanta (Hanson) 1:35 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 4 Atlanta 2 Winner
Over 9.5 (-105) Boston (Matsuzaka) / Baltimore (Berken) 1:35 ET 1 Unit
Boston 9 Baltimore 3 Winner
Parlay: Seattle (Snell) +145 / NY Yankees (Chamberlain) & Under 9 Runs (-110) 4:10ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.84 Units
Seattle 7 NY Yankees 1 Winner
Saturday 9/19: +4.37 Units (Volume: 9.00 Units)
California -13.5 / Minnesota 12:00 Noon ET 1.5 Units
California 35 Minnesota 21 Winner
Michigan State +11 / Notre Dame (Game #143/144) 3:30 ET 1.5 Unit
Michigan State 30 Notre Dame 33 Winner
Both teams off a loss last week as MSU lost to Central Michigan (as 14 point chalk!), and the Irish fell at Michigan (as a slight road favorite). Although Notre Dame was the more likely of these 2 teams to have lost their game last week, their loss was by far the more devastating. The Irish have had a buzz about them having national title hopes, but with last weeks loss, that speculation hs been put to rest. we look for MSU to be fully focused here as they look to get back on track after such a big loss last week while we also look for the wind to be out of ND's sail... for awhile anyway..
Under 52.5 Tennessee / Florida (Game #149/150) 3:30 ET 1.25 Unit
Tennessee 13 Florida 23 Winner
Over 56.5 SMU / Washington State (Game #151/152) 5:00 ET 1.25 Units
SMU 27 Washington State 30 Winner
Nevada -3 (-120) (Buy 1/2 point) / Colorado State (Game #155/156) 5:00 ET 2 Units
Nevada 20 Colorado State 35 Lose
Nevada off a bye week after getting shutout by ND 0-35 to start the season. Perfect scenario to get a favorable line because of the overreaction to the seemingly lackluster performance in South Bend. But in reality, Nevada executed their game very well averaging over 5 yards per carry, but when they fell behind right out of the gate (0-28 at HT) and were forced to abort the running game, they were done. Now the Wolf Pack has had 2 weeks to prepare for CSU who is not nearly as capable as ND was at stopping the run.
Marshall +3 / Bowling Green (Game #157/158) 7:00 ET 1.5 Units
Marshall 17 Bowling Green 10 Winner
Saturday 9/19: +1.74 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)
Florida (Nolasco) Even / Cincinnati (Arroyo) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Florida 3 Cincinnati 2 Winner
Boston (Lester) -1.5 Runs (-135) / Baltimore (Hernandez) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Boston 11 Baltimore 5 Winner
Thursday & Friday 9/17-18: 0 (Volume: 0 Units)
We passed on the lone games on the card both Thursday & Friday
Friday 9/18: +1.66 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)
San Francisco (Sanchez) +133 / LA Dodgers (Padilla) 10:10 ET 1.25 Units
San Francisco 8 LA Dodgers 4 Winner
Thursday 9/17: PASS (Volume: 0 Units)
We passed on Thursday's MLB
Wednesday 9/16: +4.39 Units (Volume: 4.00 Units)
Florida (Johnson) +113 / St. Louis (Piniero) 2:10 ET 1 Unit
Florida 5 St. Louis 2 Winner
Do or die for the Marlins as they're 4.5 games back in the NL wild card race (4 games in the loss column) chasing Colorado & the Giants. They're going to need some help, but they also need to get hot now, with 17 games left, to make it happen. They've won 9 of their last 13 averaging 6.5 runs per game, so there's no shortage of offense lately and with Josh Johnson getting the start against a St. Louis team that's all but sewn up the NL central (8.5 game lead) & have lost 4 of their last 5, these are the games Florida must win if they want any hope.
Colorado (De La Rosa) +108 / San Francisco (Cain) 10:15 ET 1 Unit
Colorado 4 San Francisco 3 Winner
Boston (Byrd) +109 / LA Angels (Saunders) 7:10 ET 2 Units
Boston 9 LA Angels 8 Winner
Boston sits atop the AL wild card race with a 5.5 game lead over Texas, but they'd much rather win the division which is still quite possible. Although they sit 6.5 back of the Yanks in the east, they're only 5 back in the loss column which just means NY has played more games (and have more wins... a team controls it's own destiny in making up wins). So every game for Boston is critical if they want to catch the Yankees. If the Sox can beat LA today & tomorrow, it's pretty smooth sailing before their final meeting with the Yankees: a weekend 3 game set 9/25-27 in NY, as their next 7 games are at Baltimore & Kansas City. WIth Daisuke back in the rotation and pitching 6 strong innings last night (3 hit & 0 runs... 4-1 Boston win), and the Sox as a team winning 6 straight, we feel Boston is the team to watch over the final 2+ weeks of the season!
Tuesday 9/15: -1.75 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)
Washington (Mock) +270 / Philadelphia (Lee) 7:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Washington 0 Philadelphia 5 Lose
It's certainly worth a half Unit play on one of our favorite young arms in the league, not to mention Cliff Lee has been getting smacked around lately... real bad! 29 Hits & 19 ER's in his last 3 starts (15 innings total!) Perhaps there's something wrong with Mr. Lee and he's not telling anyone? Either way, even if Lee is "on" tonight, we'll take our chances at this price with Garrett Mock.
Over 8 Runs NY Mets (Misch) / Atlanta (Hanson) 7:10 ET 1 Units
NY Mets 0 Atlanta 6 Lose
We're back on the Tommy Hanson trail. Take a look at him now... just like we told you many times earlier in the season, Hanson's numbers made no sense... he was pitching his way out of more than his fair share of jams. His WHIP to ERA ratio was way out of whack you'll recall... he was getting way too many breaks going his way. Now that phenomenon seems to be straightening out as they always do... in his last 3 starts, Hanson has given up just 9 hits, 4 walks & 2 ER's (15 innings total), but all he's got to show for it is 0 wins, 1 loss & 2 ND's (Atlanta LOST all 3 of those Hanson starts). So the only thing left to go wrong for Hanson is to get hit hard, and with a total of just 8, it won't take much.
Arizona (Haren) -133 / San Diego (Leblanc) 10:05 ET 1 Units
Arizona 4 San Diego 2 Winner
Over 9.5 Runs (-110) LA Angels (Lackey) / Boston (Matsuzaka) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
LAA 1 Boston 4 Lose
Monday 9/14: +1.14 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)
Over 42.5 San Diego / Oakland 10:15 Et 1.25 Units
San Diego 24 Oakland 20 Winner
Monday 9/14: -1.25 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)
Under 9.5 Runs (-120) Tampa Bay (Price) / Baltimore (Hernandez) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Tampa Bay 8 Baltimore 4 Lose
Sunday 9/13: -0.09 Units (Volume: 12.50 Units)
Carolina +2.5 / Philadelphia 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Carolina 10 Philadelphia 38 Lose
Houston -4.5 / NY Jets 1:00 ET 1.5 Units
Houston 7 NY Jets 24 Lose
It's going to take some time for Jets' rookie QB Sanchez to get acclimated to the NFL. The Jets' brass have to be really sick about letting Pennington go for a 1 year shot with Favre. Now it's back to the drawing board with a rookie QB learning the ropes.
Jacksonville +6.5 / Indianapolis 1:00 ET 1 Unit
Jacksonville 12 Indianapolis 14 Winner
New year so it's time for the Jags to forget about last years terrible season and concentrate on the new one. Jacksonville has played Indy tough over the last 5 years and beat them to open last years season. If the Jags had any kind of overall success last season, this line would be no more than 3 because of how tough this match-up has been, but the linemaker simply can't put the "correct" number on this game with a team that covered only one of it's last 7 to close out last year.
Washington +6.5 / NY Giants 4:15 ET 1 Unit
Washington 17 NY Giants 23 Winner
With the addition of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, we look for an even lower yards per game number than last years 295. Washington got swept by NY last season and in the game played in the Meadowlands, the Giants were only a 4.5 point favorite. We're getting a better line with what we feel is a better Skins' team.
Seattle -7.5 / St. Louis 4:15 ET 2 Units
Seattle 28 St. Louis 0 Winner
Tough to lay this kind of price in an NFL game (we rarely will), but when the score's 38 10, we'll be glad we did. This is Rams QB Bulger's first playing time since breaking a finger a month ago, so to have to step right in to a regular season game without having the luxury of getting acclimated to their new offensive system first will be tough. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck should have a field day against a very depleted St. Louis defense.
Totals Section
Special Note:
There are generally no write-ups on totals due to the nature of our selections. While the linemaker bases his number on a pre determined formula of past performances, stats, and trends, we have our own exclusive calculations that that have been very successful throughout the years. They are based on complex math equations integrated with public perception and line movements.
Under 43.5 Philadelphia / Carolina 1:00 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 38 Carolina 10 Lose
Under 43 Denver / Cincinnati 1:00 ET 1.5 Units
Denver 12 Cincinnati 7 Winner
Under 49.5 Detroit / New Orleans 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Detroit 27 New Orleans 45 Lose
Under 46 San Francisco / Arizona 4:15 ET 1 Unit
San Francisco 20 Arizona 16 Winner
Under 37 Washington / NY Giants 4:15 Et 1 Unit
Washington 17 NY Giants 23 Lose
Sunday 9/13: -2.50 Units (Volume: 5.00 Units)
Tampa Bay (Garza) +120 / Boston (Buchholz) 12:10 ET 1.25 Units
Tampa Bay 1 Boston 3 Lose
Over 7 Runs (Even) Atlanta (Vazquez) / St. Louis (Carpenter) 2:15 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 9 St. Louis 2 Winner
LA Dodgers (Billingsley) -115 / San Francisco (Penny) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
LA dodgers 2 San Francisco 7 Lose
Baltimore (Guthrie) +290 / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 1:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Baltimore 3 NY Yankees 13 Lose
Over 9 Runs (Even) Chicago WS (Buehrle) / LA Angels (Kazmir) 3:35 ET 1 Unit
CWS 2 LAA 3 Lose
Saturday 9/12: -2.88 Units (Volume: 5.75 Units)
East Carolina +6.5 / W. Virginia (Game #307/308) 3:30 ET 1 Unit
E. Carolina 20 W. Virginia 35 Lose
Air Force +3 / Minnesota 7:00 ET (Game #353/354) 1.25 Units
Air Force 13 Minnesota 20 Lose
UNLV +6.5 / Oregon State 11:00 ET (Game #377/378) 1.5 Units
UNLV 21 Oregon St. 23 Winner
UNLV (ML) +225 / Oregon State 11:00 ET (Game #377/378) 0.5/Unit
UNLV 21 Oregon St. 23 Lose
Live dog here as the upset is very possible. With big turnover of defensive personnel for OSU and the Rebels' offense pretty much still in tact (and a very dangerous offense at that) with Omar Clayton at the helm throwing to some very skilled WR's, if UNLV gets any kind of a lead it's going to be very difficult for OSU to win the game let alone cover the near TD. We're splitting our bet with a half unit out of the 2 Units on the money line to give us a possible win of 2.49 Units for our 2 Unit risk, and a loss ut cover for the Rebels will still net us 0.86/Unit. overall.
Ohio U -2.5 / North Texas 7:00 ET (Game #387/388) 1.5 Units
Ohio U 31 North Texas 30 Lose
Saturday 9/12: PASS (Volume: 0 Units)
No MLB plays Saturday
Friday 9/11: +1.61 Units (Volume: 4.25 Units)
Atlanta (Jurrjens) +115 / St. Louis (Piniero) 8:15 ET 1.75 Units
Atlanta 1 St. Louis 0 Winner
LA Dodgers (Kuroda) +110 / San Francisco (Cain) 10:15 Et 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 10 San Francisco 3 Winner
Over 7.5 Runs (Even) Kansas City (Greinke) / Cleveland (Masterson) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 2 Cleveland 1 Lose
Parlay: Baltimore (Tillman) +260 / NY Yankees (Pettitte) & Under 10 Runs (-120) 7:05 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.80 Units
Baltimore 10 NY Yankees 4 Lose
Nothing more than "The price is right" here for young Chris Tillman to pitch well in Yankee Stadium. Tillman's allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 6 of his 8 starts this year... worth a half unit investment at 5.6:1.
Thursday 9/10: +2.21 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Under 35.5 Tennessee / Pittsburgh 8:30 ET 1 Unit
Tennessee 10 Pittsburgh 13 Winner
Parlay: Pittsburgh ML (-290) & Under 37 (Buy 1.5 points: -140) Risk 1 Unit to win 1.30 Units
Pittsburgh 13 Tennessee 10 Winner
First, let's talk about the parlay. At the surface it may seem confusing but it's not. In fact what it really amounts to is a customized teaser. If you were to tease the game tonight (2 team 6 points), you would get Pittsburgh -0.5 (same as our parlay line) & Under 41.5 and have to lay -110. By parlaying the two, we are getting a price of +130 (40% more) and have the total at the key number of 37 (37 is the number that most NFL games fall on: about 5%), and in an anticipated low scoring game that number becomes even more important. Tennessee can now score 17 with us still winning the parlay. And although we only stand the chance of winning half of a traditional parlay (Pitt -6.5 & Under 35.5: +260), it's a very difficult combination to hit because now you must hold the Titans to 14 points and that's with the Steelers scoring exactly 21... too tight... it's simply not a playable parlay... doesn't mean it can't happen but one freak play can blow it. This is why favorite & over parlays are so popular... you're never out of it! But we'll leave that for the squares, especially in a game like this one.
We expect Tennessee to be forced into a running game with Kerry Collins being pressured by the blitzing Pittsburgh defense which of course will shorten the game. On the other side, Big Ben is not 100% for this game and will also most likely resort to the ground. We expect a classic Pittsburgh smash-mouth effort with points hard to come by for the Titans...
Thursday 9/10: -1.00 units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Parlay: Colorado (Contreras) -225 / Cincinnati (Wells) & Over 10 Runs (-115) Risk 1 Unit to win 1.70 Units
Colorado 5 Cincinnati 1 Lose
Here's an appropriate spot for Cincinnati to continue their downward spiral. The Reds, before losing their last 3 in this series to the Rockies, won 12 of 14 including series sweeps at Milwaukee (8/25-27), home vs Pittsburgh (4 games: 8/31-9/02) and most recent at Atlanta (9/04-06) and Kip Wells started in 3 of those wins (1-0 and 2 ND's). Wells came out of the bullpen at the beginning of the Reds' run and has pitched well on paper but does have some control issues. In his last 2 outings, Wells has only given up 3 hits in 12 innings but he also walked 8 while striking out only 6. Considering Wells has a 4.85 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 52 innings since coming over to the Reds, we can't see him keeping this Rockies line-up down. He's averaged over 100 pitches in each of his 3 starts but has only gone 6, 6 & 5 innings... he's worked his way out of many jams and has gone deep in a lot of counts to have only allowed 5 runs in those 17 innings (2.64 ERA), but that's what happens when a team as a whole is going good... pitchers make those key pitches... but now that Cincy's run has fizzled, this may very well be a long afternoon for Mr. Wells at Coors Field!
This is the only way for us to play this game. There's no real value in the ML(-225) where as a Unit risk will only net 0.44/Unit, and the risky proposition of laying -1.5 Runs at home still demands a -125 lay (+0.8/Unit for a 1 Unit risk). We're on the game because we fee Kip Wells will get hit hard, but even with that thinking we still may need a little help from the Reds bats to put the game over, but making 4x that of a ML (-225) play, or twice that of a run-line (-125) play, we'll take on the added risk.
Wednesday 9/09: -0.63 units (Volume: 7.25 Units)
St. Louis - Milwaukee 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Milwaukee (Suppan) +175 / St. Louis (Wainwright) 2:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Milwaukee 1 St. Louis 5 Lose
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Milwaukee (Suppan) / St. Louis (Wainwright) 1 Unit
Milwaukee 1 St. Louis 5 Lose
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) San Diego (Leblanc) / San Francisco (Zito) 3:45 ET 1 Uint
San Diego 4 San Francisco 2 Lose
Under 8.5 Runs (Even) Philadelphia (Lee) / Washington (Mock) 7:05 ET 1.25 Unit
Philadelphia 6 Washington 5 Lose
Cliff lee coming off of a couple of terrible outings: 19 hits & 12 runs last 2 starts (8 innings total) after the near perfection he displayed in his first 5 starts with the Phils (5-0, 067 ERA, 0.75 WHIP over 40 innings). We knew there was no way for Lee to keep up that pace and he came crashing down all at once. What better spot for the veteran to get back on track than playing the Nationals, and speaking of Washington they're sending young Garrett Mock to the Hill who we are very high on. Mock is an up and coming star in this league... don't let his overall umbers fool you (5.63 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) because this kid can throw! Yeah, he's had some shaky outings his season including his last 2 (just like Lee), but we feel playing host to the world champs with their ace on th hill will bring out the best in Garrett Mock.
Under 8.5 Runs (Even) LA Dodgers (Garland) / Arizona (Haren) 10:10 ET 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 3 Arizona 4 Winner
Ironically, Jon Garland is making his second start as a Dodger tonight and just like his fist, he's facing his former team! In his first, Garland held his former teammates to just 2 runs over 7 innings on 5 hits and 1 walk, and we look for more of the same tonight. And getting the start for the D'Backs is Dan Haren who has been extremely solid of late. In his last 3 starts, Haren has been in total control as he's struck out 21 while walking only 4 over 20 innings (only 7 ER's), but the D'Backs lost 2 of those 3 Haren starts (Haren got ND's in the 2 losses). When quality pitchers don't get rewarded with W's for superb efforts, they tend to be super focused in their next outing, which is what we expect from Dan Haren tonight.
Parlay: Minnesota (Pavano) +175 / Toronto (Halladay) & Under 7.5 Runs (Even) 7:05 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.25 Units
Minnesota 4 Toronto 1 Winner
Minnesota is 3-3 in Pavano's starts since signing him last month. Pavano's numbers are not great either (4.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). Pavano's contract with the Twins is laden with performance incentives, so his future really relies on producing and he knows it... no more free rides like the Yankees gave him!! Here's a perfect spot to rise up to the occasion as Pavano and the Twins face Roy halladay. Halladay is coming off a complete game 1 hitter against the Yankees on the 4th, but the veteran has been very shaky lately, not the same reliable as he used to be... couple that with the fact that the Blue Jays have only won 3 of their last 9 as a team and we feel comfortable risking a hal funit at 4.5:1 odds!
Under 10 Runs (-115) Tampa Bay (Niemann) / NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Tampa Bay 2 NY Yankees 4 Winner
Chicago White Sox (Garcia) -1.5 Runs (+160) / Oakland (Cahill) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
CWS 4 Oakland 3 Lose
Tuesday 9/08: -0.09 units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Over 9 Runs (-105) St. Louis (Smoltz) / Milwaukee (Parra) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
St.Louis 4 Milwaukee 3 Lose
We're still not sold on John Smoltz' move to the National league being the fix for this aging pitcher's woes. He got touched for 4 runs in 6 innings in his last start and we think this is just the tip of the iceberg. Added support for this over is Manny Parra.... 6.47 ERA this season and he's been getting belted lately.
San Diego (Correia) +1.5 Runs (-105) / San Francisco (Lincecum) 10:15 ET 1 Unit
San Diego 4 San Francisco 3 PITCHING CHANGE... NO ACTION
Parlay: San Diego ML (+240) / San Francisco & Under 6.5 Runs (Even) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.90 Units
San Diego 4 San Francisco 3 PITCHING CHANGE... NO ACTION
Big value exists as we feel the line maker is not giving the Padres enough credit for their recent surge. SD has won 9 of their last 13 as a team and tonight's starter Kevin Correia is coming off a spectacular performance: 7 2/3 innings of 3 hit shutout ball! we expect runs to be scarce in this one with Tim Lincecum going for the Giants, but we like our spot here as we can even lose a 1 run game and still show a nice profit, and if the Padres can nip Lincecum, we stand to make nearly 4 Units for our 1.5 Unit risk.
Under 7.5 Runs (-110) Seattle (Hernandez) / LA Angels (Kazmir) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
Seattle 2 LA Angels 3 Winner
Monday 9/07: -3.00 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)
Under 47.5 Cincinnati / Rutgers 4:00 ET 1 Unit
Cincinnati 47 Rutgers 14 Lose
FSU -6 / Miami 8:00 ET ESPN 1 Unit
FSU 34 Miami 38 Lose
Parlay: FSU (ML) -250 & Over 47 Risk 1 Unit to win 1.67 Units
FSU 34 Miami 38 Lose
We feel this is going to be a back and forth affair this evening in Tallahassee with these 2 pretty evenly matched teams which could very well come down to he who has the ball last coming away with the "W", so we don't want to get caught in a "win but no cover" situation here... We're collecting 64% on the parlay as opposed to laying the points with FSU in the parlay with the over (+1.67 instead of +2.60). The cut rate price is well worth FSU only having to win the game as opposed to covering the 6! The other option is to tease the two which would give us the same pick-em line on FSU and a total of 41 to get over instead of 47, but now we'd cut our payout almost in half (+0.91/Unit as opposed to +1.67 Units) which kills any and all value here! We'd be giving up 46% of our potential profit for an extra 6 points on the total. If it winds up making a difference so be it, but it's a long season there is no future in teasing totals... period!
Monday 9/07: -4.00 units (Volume: 4.00 Units)
Over 8 Runs (Even) Chicago Cubs (Lilly) / Pittsburgh (Mccutchen) 12:35 ET 1 Unit
Chicago Cubs 4 Pittsburgh 2 Lose
Over 8 Runs (-120) St. Louis (Carpenter) / Milwaukee (Bush) 2:05 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 3 Milwaukee 0 Lose
Toronto (Richmond) -112 / Minnesota (Manship) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 3 Minnesota 6 Lose
Parlay: Colorado (Jimenez) -250 / Cincinnati (Bailey) 3:10 ET & LA Angels (Santana) -165 / Kansas City(Davies) 2:10 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 1.25 Unit
Colorado 4 Cincinnati 3 Winner | LAA 3 KC 6 Lose | Parlay: Lose
Sunday 9/06: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Colorado -10.5 / Colorado State 7:00 ET 2 Units
Colorado 17 Colorado State 23 lose
Way too much depth for Colorado here, especially on offense. CU has 2 outstanding QB's in Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen. Hawkins (Coach Dan Hawkins' son) is the favorite to get the start, but Hansen is a very capable replacement if need be. And protecting the QB for CU is an extremely deep offensive line averaging 6' 5"& 295 lbs! At these guard & tackle positions are at least 8 experienced players which will be constantly rotated keeping the overall line fresh. And the Buffaloes are also deep with running backs and wide receivers, so with the protection Hawkins and Hansen will be getting, this game has blow-out written all over it. Not only is Colorado stacked on offense, but couple that with the problems CSU has had on defense. They gave up an average of 185 yards rushing per game (5.2 ypc) last season, which is about 25% more than average! We look for this one to get ugly early!!
Sunday 9/06: +0.14 units (Volume: 5.00 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Cincinnati (Cueto) / Atlanta (Hudson) 1:35 ET 1.25 Units
Cincinnati 4 Atlanta 2 Lose
Under 9 Runs (-120) San Francisco (Sanchez) / Milwaukee (Looper) 2:05 ET 1.5 Units
San Francisco 1 Milwaukee 2 Winner
LA Dodgers (Kuroda) -1.5 Runs (+105) / San Dieo (Stauffer) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 3 San Diego 4 Lose
Over 10.5 Runs (-110) NY Yankees (Mitre) / Toronto (Tallet) 1:05 ET 1.25 Unit
NY Yankees 8 Toronto 14 Winner
Saturday 9/05: -4.22 Units (Volume: 9.00 Units)
Minnesota-7 / Syracuse 12:00 Noon ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 23 Syracuse 20 Lose
Georgia +5.5 Oklahoma State 3:30 ET 1.5 Unit
Goergia 10 Oklahoma State 24 Lose
Oklahoma State defense was terrible last year (400 ypg) and now they turn the "D" over to a new defensive coordinator. It'll surely help as the season progresses, but to have to face the overall athleticism of this Georgia team right out of the gate will prove too much.
Illinois -6.5 / Missouri 3:30 ET 1.25 Unit
Illinois 9 Missouri 37 Lose
The Tigers took a big hit in player departures and coaching changes while Illinois returns their QB (Williams who led the Big 10 in passing) along with 3 offensive linemen. Also, the Illini lost their last 2 games to Mizzou so look for them to be revenge minded here.
Baylor +2.5 / Wake Forest 3:30 ET 1.5 Units
Baylor 24 Wake Forest 21 Winner
Same opener as last year for these 2 teams with Wake blowing out Baylor at Baylor 41-13. We're looking for a much different outcome today as Baylor returns 8 starters on offense including their senior QB Griffen while Wake lost 7 defensive starters.
Ohio U +4 / Connecticut 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Ohio 16 UCONN 23 Lose
Ohio will be facing another Joe Moorhead run offense. Moorhead was the offensive coordinator at Akron the past 2 seasons and in each of their last 2 annual meetings, the Zips scored 40+ against the Bobcats but both of those games were toward the end of the season when Ohio wasn't at 100%. Also, you can bet that Ohio's HC Solich will have his team more than prepared having ample time to formulate a defense.
Under 64 BYU / Oklahoma 7:00 ET 1 Unit
BYU 14 Oklahoma 13 Winner
Louisiana Tech +14 / Auburn 7:00 ET 1.5 Units
Louisiana Tech 13 Auburn 37 Lose
Wholesale coaching changes for Auburn versus a very talented and complete La. Tech offense including 5 returning offensive linemen makes the upset here quite possible let alone the cover!
Saturday 9/05: -1.05 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)
NY Yankees - Toronto 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Toonto (Cecil) +165 / NY Yankees (Pettitte) 1:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Toronto 4 NY Yankees 6 Lose
Parlay: Toronto +165 & Over 9.5 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.98 Units
Toronto 4 NY Yankees 6 Lose
Over 8 Runs (-105) Philadelphia (Blanton) / Houston (Oswalt) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 4 Houston 5 Winner
Over 7.5 Runs (Even) LA Angels (Lackey) / Kansas City (Greinke) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 2 Kansas City 1 Lose
Friday 9/04 NFLX: +1.19 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)
Dallas +3 (-105) / Minnesota 8:00 ET Risk 1.25 Units
Dallas 35 Minnesota 31 Winner
Friday 9/04 MLB: -0.63 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)
Florida - Washington 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Under 9.5 Runs (-115) Florida (West) / Washington (Mock) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Florida 9 Washington 6 Lose
Parlay: Washington +110 & Under 9.5 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.46 Units
Washington 6 Florida 9 Lose
Under 8.5 Runs (-115) NY Yankees (Chamberlain) / Toronto (Halladay) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
NY Yankees 0 Toronto 6 Winner
Thursday 9/03 NFLX: +1.57 Units (Volume: 4.00 Units)
Carolina -3 (-125) / Pittsburgh
8:00 ET Risk 1 Unit
Carolina 10 Pittsburgh 21 Lose
Miami +3 (-120) / New Orleans 8:00 ET Risk 1 Unit
Miami 10 New Orleans 7 Winner
Buy up to +3 from +2.5
Tennessee -3 (-120) / Green Bay 8:00 ET Risk 1 Unit
Tennessee 27 Green Bay 13 Winner
Buy down to -3 from -3.5
Over 36 Oakland / Seattle 9:00 ET Risk 1 Unit
Oakland 21 Seattle 31 Winner
Thursday 9/03 NCAAF: +/- 0 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)
Under 52 Utah State / Utah 9:00 ET Risk 1.25 Units
Utah State 35 Utah 17 PUSH
Thursday 9/03 MLB: -0.70 Units (Volume: 3.25 Units)
Milwaukee - St. Louis 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Milwaukee (Parra) +160 / St. Louis (Smoltz) 2:15 ET 0.50/Unit
Milwaukee 4 St. Louis 3 Winner
Parlay: Milwaukee +160 & Over 9 Runs (-120) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.99/Unit
Milwaukee 4 St. Louis 3 Lose
Smoltz' play just flat out makes no sense! He gets absolutely walloped in Boston then comes to the Cards and is back to Cy Young form? No, we don't buy it... although that is what seems to be. We'll play a unit here just in case our suspicions are correct. With 4 Milwaukee runs our risk is cut in half (we'd be guaranteed at least a push on the total if we lost the game), and our upside is 1.79 Units. We also like the fact that Smoltz must pitch in the heat this afternoon... about 80 by game time!
Under 8.5 Runs (-115) Atlanta (Hanson) / Florida (Nolasco) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 3 Florida 8 Lose
Over 9 Runs (-125) Boston (Buckholz) / Tampa Bay (Price) 7:05 ET 1.25 Unit
Boston 6 Tampa Bay 3 PUSH
Wednesday 9/02: -0.07 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)
Parlay: St. Louis (Carpenter) -260 / Milwaukee (Bush) 8:15 ET & LA Dodgers (Billingsley) -165 / Arizona (Scherzer) 10:10 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 1.20 Units
Parlay: Lose | St. Louis 10 Milwaukee 3 Winner | LAD 1 Arizona 4 Lose
We feel sufficient value exists despite the prices, but way too much to risk when playing separately. We'd have to risk 1.25 units each (2.5 total) for the same return, and splitting would still cost us between 0.5 to 0.75 of a unit anyway.
San Francisco (Penny) +185 / Philadelphia (Happ) 7:05 ET 0.5/Unit
San Francisco 4 Philadelphia 0 Winner
Just a half unit risk here... the price is too good to pass up! Brad Penny makes his debut as a Giant tonight and although he's been getting it lately, perhaps a change of scenery and the National league will bring ot his past abilities... it seems to have worked for Smoltz!
Tuesday 9/01: +2.21 Units (Volume: 2.25 Units)
Texas (Nippert) -145 / Toronto (Rzepczynski) 5:05 ET 1.25 Units
Texas 5 Toronto 2 Winner
Minnesota (Manship) +135 / Chicago WS (Danks) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 4 CWS 3 Winner