Email:

New Weekly Package

All Sports Weekly Package
Receive 7 Days MLB, NFL & NCAAF Daily Reports


$95  Click here to buy now

Click here  for all Purchase Options

MLB Weekly Package: $48
 7 Days OF MLB Daily Reports
Click here to buy now

Get A FREE  Winner

From The Members Area
Click Here  It's FREE

MLB Daily: $17

 MLB Season: $195

Click here to purchase 

August 2009 Overall Results
Click here for full season results

+6.62 Units (Volume: 178.43 Units)


Monday 8/31: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)

Houston -3 (-120) / Minnesota 8:00 ET ESPN Risk 2 Units
Houston 10 Minnesota 17 Lose
Brett Favre is the talk of the league once again this year, this time teaming up with the Packers arch rivals the Vikings. Brett must really like the spotlight and all the media attention because had he just stayed either playing or retiring, there would be none of all the fanfare. Maybe he's going to start an acting career after football and is practicing how to deal with the paparazzi!
But getting down to football and the game at hand tonight in Houston, there's plenty of talk about how Favre has had Minnesota's play book for quite some time now since he's already engaged in talks with the Vikings before the summer, but what do you think, he's actually been studying it? How can he find the time between planning his next career move. And even if he has, there's more to football than x's & o's, that's why they play pre season games... to get acclimated to game situations.

So now Brett's a Viking, his third team in as many years. It's going to take time to fully learn the system and there still must be a certain team chemistry to succeed in the NFL no matter what the talent level is on paper. Last season Favre had great success with the jets in the beginning of the season but don't forget he played the whole pre season and went through training camp from the beginning. We're not saying Favre isn't going to great things with the Vikings this season but it's going to take time to get acclimated. Tonight will be the first real play time he's seen. And since the Vikes open the season with games at Cleveland, at Detroit & home vs SF before their "real" season open's week 4 (10/6) at home on Monday night vs Green Bay, Favre can feel comfortable knowing those first three games won't require him to be at peak performance. Look for some sloppy Minnesota play tonight as Favre gets back to football.

Monday 8/31: +0.91 Units (Volume: 2.25 Units)

MLB: 8/31

Over 7 Runs (-120) Houston (Oswalt) / Chicago Cubs (Harden) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Houston 5 Chicago 3 Winner

Over 8 Runs (-115) Arizona (Davis) / LA Dodgers (Wolf) 10:10 ET 1.25 Units
Arizona 5 LA Dodgers 3 PUSH


Sunday 8/30: -1.38 Units (Volume: 1.38 Units)

Denver -2 / Chicago 8:05 ET NBC 1.25 Unit
Denver 17 Chicago 27 Lose
Don't buy into all the hype surrounding the point Jay Cutler supposedly has to prove to new Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels for insulting him by going after Matt Cassell. Give the media enough rope and they're sure to set up a high wire circus act. Cutler himself downplayed the whole thing... here's what Jay had to say: "It doesn't count for anything. We just want to go out there and play well and execute our offense." And we believe him! Jay Cutler is a true professional. There's no room for baby crap like that in his game... now if it were his old western conference rival Phillip Rivers, it would be a whole different story! Cutler knows he's the better of the 2 (he and Kyle Orten, whom the Broncos got in return from the Bears), regardless of who wins tonight's meaningless game.

No... we think the real motivation lies with Denver... not only because of the QB deal but this is Coach McDaniels' 1st home game in front of their fans and he's yet to notch his first win... a very important thing to a new coach regardless if it's a pre season game or not... a win's a win when it comes to setting the tone for how the media, especially local in Denver, will assess the new era Denver's entering: Post Shanahan... A tough act to follow!

Sunday 8/30: -3.11 Units (Volume: 5.50 Units)

San Diego (Latos) +130 / Florida (West) & Under 9 Runs (-110) 1:10 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to in 1.70 Units
San Diego 4 Florida 6 Lose
Like we said Tuesday when we went AGAINST Matt Latos, he's been baseball's version of Jeckyll & Hyde where he either pitches lights out or he gets shelled (he pitched a gem beating us 2-1 as a +25 dog). It's worth a small half unit investment here at this price (3.4:1) because if he's on, this is a very winnable parlay... not to mention Florida has lost 8 of their last 12 while the Padres have won 4 of 5.

Washington - St. Louis 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Washington (Mock) +280 / St. Louis (Wainwright) 2:15 ET 0.5/Unit
Washington 1 St. Louis 2 Lose
Parlay: Washington +280 & Under 8 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 3.20 Units
Washington 1 St. Louis 2 Lose
Another great price as we stand to make 4.60 Units for our 1 Unit risk. Garrett Mock has some very good stuff. Although his ERA is a bit high don't let that fool you because he can take control of a game. In his last 4 starts, Mock has 27 K's in 22 2/3 innings while walking 11. We can see a pitcher's duel here and will get paid at the rate of nearly 5:1 if we come out on top.

Over 7.5 Runs (-110) Colorado (Hammel) / San Francisco (Cain) 4:05 ET 1.25 Units
Colorado 5 San Francisco 9 Winner

Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Texas (Millwood) / Minnesota (Baker) 2:10 ET 1.5 Units
Texas 3 Minnestoa 5 Lose

Atlanta (Jurrjens) +116 / Philadelphia (Blanton) 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 2 Philadelphia 3 Lose
The Phils are showing the signs of a team at the tail end of a great run. The earlier you anticipate this happening, the more value there will be as the line maker is always slow to adjust. Philly has now lost 3 of their last 5 including losing their last series (1 game to 2) at Pittsburgh and their new ace Cliff Lee getting pummeled last night by these Braves (we read the game right as we were on the Braves along with a parlay with the under but Atlanta hit Lee TOO hard winning 9-1 so we only netted a small profit). But like we said, we feel Philly will endure a period of sub .500 ball for a week or two after winning 11 of 13 before their last 2 series.

Tonight Jair Jurrjens gets the start for the Braves coming off a real tough 1 run loss (1-2) in his last outing (2-3 vs SD on the 25th). In that game, Jurrjens gave up only 5 hits & 1 run in 7 2/3 innings while striking out 7. Many times when a quality pitcher is off a performance like that where they didn't get the win, in their next outing they're super focused as they have the "what's it going to take to win" mentality. Jurrjens has been solid all season as he's 10-8 with a 2.91 ERA over 148 innings. We expect him to shine once again in a very important game for Atlanta as they trail these Phils in the east by 7 (6 with a win) with 32 left to play... not an insurmountable deficit to overcome but these head on match-ups are key.


Saturday 8/29: +2.00 Units (Volume: 2.20 Units)

Cleveland +1 / Tenessee 7:30 ET 1 Unit
Cleveland 23 Tennessee 17 Winner

Pittsburgh -6 / Buffalo 7:30 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 17 Buffalo 0 Winner

Saturday 8/29: -2.04 Units (Volume: 5.25 Units)

Atlanta - Philadelphia 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Atlanta (Lowe) +1.5 Runs (-140) / Philadelphia (Lee) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 9 Philadelphia 1 Winner
Parlay: Atlanta (Lowe) +170 / Philadelphia (Lee)  & Under 8.5 Runs Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.98 Units
Atlanta 9 Philadelphia 1 Lose
Like we said right after the trade deadline, Cliff Lee would prove to have the biggest impact on his new team. Lee's now 5-0 with the Phillies with an ERA & WHIP of less than 1 each!!! He's been virtually un-hittable... but even the best have off days and what better spot can we ask for for that to happen. Atlanta's Derek Lowe has been solid all year with a 12-8 record. Although his ERA is a bit high (4.48), Lowe's only given up more than 3 ER's in 6 of his 27 outings and has held teams to 2 or less ER's in more than half his appearances (14 of 27). We're not expecting the Braves to get much off of Cliff Lee but we are expecting Derek Lowe to keep them in the game. We'll even show a small profit (+0.21/Unit) with a 1 run Atlanta loss, but we stand to make +2.69 Units for our 1.5 Unit risk if all works out.

Under 9 Runs (-110) San Diego (Leblanc) / Florida (Nolasco) 6:10 ET 1 Unit
San Diego 7 Florida 4 Lose

Over 8 Runs (-120) Colorado (Marquis) / San Francico (Zito) 9:05 ET 1.5 Units
Colorado 3 San Francisco 5 PUSH

Minnesota (Pavano) Even / Texas (Feldman) 7:10 ET 1.25 Units
Minnesota 0 Texas 3 Lose


Friday 8/28: -2.59 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)

Washington (Lannan) +165 / St. Louis (Smoltz) 8:15 ET 1 Unit
Washington 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
Over 9 Runs (+105) Washington / St. Louis 1 Unit
Washington 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
We're sticking with our position on John Smoltz that he's finished and will never be close to his old self. Having one good outing in his debut with the Cards (8/23 at SD: 5 innings, 3 hits, 0 walks & 9 K's) does not erase the woes he had in Boston since his return 2 months ago ( 8 starts, 40 innings pitched, 59 hits, 9 walks, 33 K's & 37 earned runs. A 1.70 WHIP to go along with an 8.33 ERA!) We'll back the Nat's in this one along with the Over for 2 straight plays so as long as Washington scores 4, we're only at risk for 1 Unit total and with 5 Washington runs, we're guaranteed a profit!

Chicago WS (Buehrle) +1.5 Runs (-115) / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 2 NY Yankees 5 Lose
Parlay: Chicago WS (ML) +195 & Under 9 Runs (-125) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.15 Units
Chicago WS 2 NY Yankees 5 Lose
Isn't it amazing what pitching a perfect game can do to a pitcher? It's pretty common to have a letdown after such a feat, but in the case of Mark Buehrle, the letdown has lasted over 6 weeks!! Since his masterpiece on 7/23 vs the Rays, Buehrle is 0-4 with 2 ND's (37 2/3 inn., 54 his, 7 walks & 26 ER's... that's a 2.34 HIP & 6.21 ERA) and the White Sox are 1-5 in those games.... WOW! And as for the Yanks, CC Sabathia gets the start. You'll recall the rough start CC had this year as the Yanks were 11-11 in his first 22 starts which of course was a big money burner with the price that goes along with backing Sabathia but recently, he's really turned it on. NY has won Sabathia's last 6 starts.

Tonight we're looking for both of these lopsided situations to start to straighten out. This pitching match up is a rematch of August 2nd at Chicago where the Yanks won 8-5... it was the 2nd game after Buehrle's perfect game and the start of his terrible tailspin so it's certain to stand out in his head. We're fully expecting another solid performance from Sabathia tonight, but we're also expecting a super focused Mark Buehrle to get back to his early season form. We stand to make 3.02 Units for our 1.5 Unit risk and we can still show a profit with a 1 run WS loss.

Over 9 Runs (-110) Toronto (Richmond) / Boston (Beckett) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 5 Boston 6 Winner


Thursday 8/27: -1.65 Units (Volume: 1.65 Units)

Tampa Bay pick / Miami 8:00 ET FOX 1.5 Units
Tampa Bay 6 Miami 10 Lose
NIce set up here as the fact that Miami's Chad Pennington will be playing extended time tonight actually is exactly what we need for the Bucs to win this one. Not taking anything away from Pennington, but that tells us that the Dolphins will be looking to simulate an actual game, and piling the points on is not Miami's game. On the other hand, the QB spot in Tampa is still wide open and they've already put up 20 & 24 this pre season on the road which they should have no problem continuing at home against one of the weakest secondaries in the league.

Thursday 8/27: -2.55 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)

NY Mets - Florida 3 Plays Total Risk 2.75 Units
NY Mets (Redding) +1.5 Runs (-105) / Florida (Sanchez) 1:10 ET 1 Unit
NY Mets 10 Florida 3 Winner
Under 9 Runs (-120) NY Mets (Redding) / Florida (Sanchez) 1.25 Units
NY Mets 10 Florida 3 Lose
Parlay: NY Mets +200 / Florida & Under 9 Runs (-120) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.25 Units
NY Mets 10 Florida 3 Lose
We're risking a total of 2.75 Units here with an upside of +4.24 Units. The Under is our main play. Winning it reduces our risk to less than half a unit (0.46/Unit). And even with the Mets losing a low scoring 1 run game we'll make +1.49 Units. As stated before, we feel the long string of Florida hot hitting is going to do a complete 180.

Oakland - LAA 2 Plays Total Risk 1.75 Units
Over 9.5 Runs (-115) Oakland (Cahill) / LA Angels (Santana) 10:25 ET 1.25 Units
Oakland 2 LA Angels 0 Lose
Parlay: Oakland (Cahill) +180  & Over 9.5 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.12 Units
Oakland 2 LA Angels 0 Lose


Wednesday 8/26: -7.00 Units (Volume: 7.00 Units)

Parlay: Atlanta (Kawakami) -225 / San Diego (Stauffer) 7:10 ET & Florida (Johnson) -250 / NY Mets (Pelfrey) 7:10 ET Risk 2 Units to win 2.04 Units
Atlanta 5 San Diego 12 Lose  |  Florida 5 NY Mets 3 Winner: Parlay Lose
Once again, we're limiting our exposure on 2 big favorites which, despite their huge prices, we feel have value. A 2 Unit risk on each straight would only yield a +1.68 Unit profit winning both, and a split would lose -1.12 U or -1.20 U. This way we're on the hook for half (2 Units) and stand to make more.

Washington (Hernandez) +250 / Chicago Cubs (Harden) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Washington 2 Chicago 9 Lose
Livan Hernandez makes his debut as a Washington National tonight. We're playing against the Cubs here as this is a struggling club right now having lost 6 of their last 8 and slipping to 9 games back of the Cards in the NL Central. Rich Harden gets the start for the Cubs and is coming off of a 7 inning, 1 hit & 3 walk performance in his last outing on the 19th at SD, but that's still not enough to justify this size lay with a team going bad!

Over 7.5 Runs (-120) Houston (Oswalt) / St. Louis (Piniero) 8:15 ET 1.5 Units
Houston 2 St. Louis 3 Lose

Over 10.5 Runs (-110) LA Dodgers (Wolf) / Colorado (Fogg) 8:40 ET 1.25 Units
LA Dodgers 6 Colorado 1 Lose

Tampa Bay (Kazmir) -119 / Toronto (Rzepczynsky) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Tampa bay 2 Toronto 3 Lose


Tuesday 8/25: -2.42 Units (Volume: 5.00 Units)

Atlanta  (Jurrijens) -1.5 Runs (-115) / San Diego (Latos) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 1 San Diego 2 Lose
Parlay: Atlanta (ML) -250 & Over 8 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.81/Unit
Atlanta 1 San Diego 2 Lose
We're risking a total of 1.5 Units here with an upside of 1.68 Units, a far cry from the 0.6/Unit that a 1.5 Unit ML only play would yield. This is just too big of a price to lay with Atlanta tonight going against rookie Matt Latos. Latos has gotten shelled in his last 2 outings (a total of 7 2/3 innings pitched: 15 hits, 7 walks & 12 ER's), but before that, since his debut on 7/19), he's put forth some very impressive outings. On 7/29 Latos pitched 7 innings at Cincinnati allowing just 1 hit, 1 walk & 1 run as he cruised to a 7-1 win and he's also held these Braves down in his next start on 8/3 going 7 innings again allowing 6 hits, 2 walks & 2 runs winning 4-2. Looking at the big picture, in his first 5 starts (before his 2 most recent beatings), Latos pitched a combined 29 2/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.94 and an ERA of 2.42 (8 ER's in 29.66 innings!) So it's kind of a tale of 2 pitchers. We're just banking on Latos' woes continuing and if we're wrong we'll most likely lose, but we're setting ourselves up to get paid at a premium if we're right, nearly triple that of a ML only play!

LA Dodgers (Kershaw) -110 / Colorado (Hammel) 8:40 ET 1.5 Units
LA Dodgers 4 Colorado 5 Lose
Clayton Kershaw hasn't won a game in over 5 weeks. In fact, LA has lost each of his last 6 starts but in all fairness, you can't blame Kershaw as he's been brilliant over his last 6 pitching 33 innings and allowing just 11 ER's (3.00 ERA which is right at his season mark of 2.96). Problem has been lack of run support LA has scored just 14 runs in those 6 games (2.33 average per game). 4 of those 6 were 1 run losses... enough to drive a starter mad but we believe Kershaw will start reaping what he's been sowing. He has continued to put forth great efforts despite the bad breaks he's endured... a tell tale sign of a winner. Many would let this bad run get into their head, but Kershaw has hung in there and we believe he'll be rewarded.

Under 9.5 Runs (-105) Texas (Millwood) / NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Texas 10 NY Yankees 9 Lose

Detroit (Washburn) +158 / LA Angels (Lackey) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 5 LA Angels 3 Winner
OK, we'll bite! Detroit sends their newest pitching acquisition to the mound tonight in LA. Jarrod Washburn, since coming over from Seattle, is 0-1 with 3 ND's (Detroit has won all 3 ND's), but his numbers in those 4 game are a bit shaky which we'll attribute to new team jitters. (25.1 innings pitched, 24 hits, 6 walks & 17 ER's: that's a 1.20 WHIP & 6.12 ERA compared to his full season numbers of 1.09 WHIP & 3.18 ERA). We can't see these woes going much further, but it's these poor recent numbers driving this price (LAA -168). We feel this game should be no more than LAA -135 so enough of an overlay exists making this a very live dog.

Also note that John Lackey is coming off of a disastrous start of his own on the 20th in Cleveland where he gave up 6 ER's in 5 1/3 innings, and the Angels as a team have now lost 4 of their last 5 (this coming after winning 8 of their previous 9).


Monday 8/24: +1.78 Units (Volume: 2.10 Units)

NY Jets - Baltimore 3 Plays Total Risk 2.10 Units
NY Jets ML (+135) / Baltimore 8:00 ET ESPN 0.5/Unit
NY Jets 23 Baltimore 24 Lose
Over 32.5  NY Jets / Baltimore 1 Unit
NY Jets 23 Baltimore 24 Winner
Parlay: NYJ +3 (-115) & Over 32.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.28 Units
NY Jets 23 Baltimore 24 Winner
Baltimore's coming off a 23-0 shutout against Washington last week while the Jets lost a close one 20-23 to St. Louis. Can't see the Ravens pulling out all the stops again on defense in a meaningless game, and NY has yet to name their starting QB (Mark Sanchez gets the start tonight and with a good performance will most likely win the job), so we look for lots of offense. Also, added motivation as Jets head coach Rex Ryan faces his old team after being passed on for the HC job in Baltimore after 10 years with the team (defensive coordinator). So with the Ravens' ex-DC as Jets HC and Ryan publicly saying how he'd like to win the game and with the starting QB job up for grabs in NY, we like our chances here. Also note that with the game going Over the 32.5, we're free rolling and stand to make a total of 2.95 Units for our 2.10 Unit risk. 

Monday 8/24: +0.65/Unit (Volume: 4.50 Units)

Over 9.5 Runs (Even) San Francisco (Zito) / Colorado (Marquis) 8:40 ET 1.5 Units
San Francisco 4 Colorado 6 Winner

Under 7.5 Runs (-105) Tampa Bay (Niemann) / Toronto (Halladay) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Tampa bay 12 Toronto 7 Lose

Baltimore - Minnesota 2 Plays Tota Risk 1 Unit
Baltimore (Tillman) +185 / Minnesota (Baker) 8:10 ET 0.5/Unit
Baltimore 1 Minnesota 2 Lose
Parlay: Baltimore +185 & Over 9 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.28 Units
Baltimore 1 Minnesota 2 Lose
Nice price here as we stand to make 3.20 Units for our 1 Unit risk. Although his overall numbers are decent, Scott Baker has been erratic throughout the season. He's given up at least 4 ER's in 11 of his 24 starts this year including twice in his last 3 outings. Granted he's also thrown some gems recently, but we can't justify this huge price (and neither can the sharps as this price is "down" to -205 from the opening of -235 despite two thirds of the action being on the Twins!) Baltimore's Chris Tillman hasn't been spectacular by any means (4.80 ERA in his 5 starts), but he also hasn't gotten slammed either. He's pitched well enough to win in just about all of his games (3 ER's or less in 4 of the 5, and 5 ER's in the other). Also the O's as a team have won 3 of their last 4 (all on the road). Not a bad spot for 1 Unit at these prices!

Detroit (Verlander) +115 / LA Angels (Weaver) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 10  LA Angels 7 Winner


Sunday 8/23: -1.18 Units (Volume: 5.50 Units)

Atlanta (Lowe) -130 / Florida (Nolasco) 1:35 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 7 Florida 5 Winner
Parlay: Atlanta -130 & Under 8.5 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.22 Units
Atlanta 7 Florida 5 Lose
As we've said in the past, Ricky Nolasco is either dead on un-hittable or he gets smacked around. We're looking for the latter this afternoon in Atlanta and will also play a small parlay to the under as we feel now that all the attention surrounding the Marlins with the 10 hits/game streak is over, they're going to go through a hit drought for awhile.

San Diego (Carrillo) +158 / St. Louis (Smoltz) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
San Diego 2 St. Louis 5 Lose
Over 9 Runs (Even) San Diego / St. Louis 1 Unit
San Diego 2 St. Louis 5 Lose
We can't help ourselves here! Hate to ask a bad team to win, but the fact that John Smoltz is still hanging around is unbelievable to us! We must play here! We've been saying for the last month that Smoltz's days in Boston were numbered and also that his career is all but over (that's next... by the end of the season). Sorry, but all the speculation about how he'll be able to pitch in the weaker hitting national league, partly because of no designated hitter, is a bunch of crap in his situation! Look at his numbers in Boston this season: 8 starts, 40 innings pitched, 59 hits, 9 walks, 33 K's & 37 earned runs. So that's a 1.70 WHIP to go along with an 8.33 ERA! The only bright spot for Smoltz, which as mentioned before we feel is the main reason he's still hanging around, is his accuracy. He's struck out 33 while walking only 9. But that's not nearly enough to hang your hat on in the big leagues and Smoltz should know it. Problem is that it's tough to turn down the money if there's still someone willing to pay it!

Chicago Cubs (Dempster) +155 / LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago 3 LA Dodgers 1 Winner
Nice price here created by recent performance. The Cubs have lost 3 straight to LA and 12 of their last 16 overall. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' Chad Billingsley has allowed just 9 hits, 4 walks & 3 ER's in his last 3 starts (17 innings). Deviations from a pitcher's norm have a way of straightening out as do teams losing streaks. Billingsley's WHIP & ERA over those L3 starts are 0.76 WHIP & 1.59 ERA compared to his season numbers of 1.25 & 3.70... What better spot to come back down to earth than playing the Cubs desperate for a win and starting the ever solid Ryan Dempster. Also note that as a team, LA has had their woes of late losing 8 of their last 15... It doesn't get any liver than this dog!

Boston (Beckett) -117 / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Boston 4 NY Yankees 8 Lose


Saturday 8/22: +1.00 Units (Volume: 3.20 Units)

Tampa Bay +3 / Jacksonville 7:30 ET 1 Unit
Tampa Bay 24 jacksonville 23 Winner
Some added motivation here for Byron Leftwich playing against his former team after he was let go. Sure, the Jags will probably be just as motivated to stop him, but it's much more likely that Leftwich will win that challenge considering the Jags are making wholesale changes on the defensive front. Also Leftwicjh is in a battle for the starting QB job with Luke McCown, so we expect him to make the most of his playing time tonight.

Buffalo +3 (Even) / Green Bay 8:00 ET 1 Unit
Buffalo 21 Green Bay 31 Lose

Under 35 NY Giants / Chicago 8:00 ET 1 Unit
NY Giants 3 Chicago 17 Winner


Saturday 8/22: +1.37 Units (Volume: 5.00 Units)

Under 8.5 Runs (-115) Florida (Volstad) / Atlanta (Hanson) 7:10 ET 1.5 Units
Florida 3 Atlanta 4 Winner

Over 9 Runs (-115) NY Mets (Redding) / Philadelphia (Happ) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
NY Mets 1 Philadelphia 4 Lose
NY Mets (Redding) +210 / Philadelphia (Happ) 0.5/Unit
NY Mets 1 Philadelphia 4 Lose
Parlay: NY Mets +210 & Over 9 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.40 Units
NY Mets 1 Philadelphia 4 Lose
Excellent value here as we're at risk for a total of 2 units with a possible upside of 4.28 Units. With 4 NY runs scored our exposure is 1 unit and with 5 NY runs it's cut to less than a half unit (0.45). We're expecting for JA Happ to have a bit of a shaky outing tonight. Happ's 2-0 with 1 ND in his last 3 starts with Philly winning all 3 games. Despite only giving up a total of 3 ER's in those 3 starts and his WHIP is a solid 1.16, he seems to be losing control. Three starts ago, 8/5 vs Colorado, Happ pitched a complete game shutout allowing just 4 his & 2 walks while striking out 10 (127 pitches). Then on 8/11 at Chicago, 6 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks and only 3 strike outs (100 pitches in 6 innings), and finally in his most recent start on 8/16, Happ walked another 6 while striking out just 3 going 7 2/3 innings (116 pitches). So with an average pitch count of 114 over his last 3 and 10 walks & only 6 K's in his last 2, perhaps late season fatigue is getting to Happ. Granted  Redding's numbers are terrible this season (6.53 ERA, 1.65 WHIP), but we don't need a great performance out of him to profit here, we just need him to not get shelled (and even if he does get blasted, we'll most likely win the over). And remember, Redding is coming out of the bullpen to start for the first time since July 2nd. Sometimes this role change helps a struggling pitcher.

Parlay: Tampa Bay (Garza) -170  / Texas (Hunter) (7:05 ET) & St. Louis (Carpenter) -200 / San Diego (Correia) (10:05 ET) Risk 1.5 Units to win 2.07 Units
Tampa Bay 5 Texas 4 Winner  |  St. Louis 7 San Diego 0 Winner | Parlay: Winner
We've been telling you how this is the time of the year when many value positions will lie with big favorites, and we've won several of them in the last week or so. Tonight we're going to limit our exposure by parlaying these 2 favorites. If we risked 2 Units each, we'd stand to make 2.17 units by winning both and a split would lose us either 0.83/Unit or 1 Unit. The way we're playing it though will net us almost the same amount as two 2 Unit straight plays, so for an additional half unit risk we're cutting our exposure by 2.5 Units (1.5 instead of 4).


Friday 8/21: -1.50 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)

St. Louis +3 (-120) / Atlanta 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
(Buy to +3 -120 if your line is +2.5)
St. Louis 13 Atlanta 20 Lose
Way too big a deal is being made because of Marc Bulger's injury (broken pinky suffered in practice early in the week). In fact, we feel this helps the Rams here as it paves the way for veteran Kyle Boller and rookie Keith Null (5100 passing yds & 48 TD's last season at West Texas A&M) to step in and face a rebuilding Atlanta defense.

Friday 8/21: +0.04/Unit (Volume: 2.25 Units)

Under 8.5 Runs (-120) Florida (Sanchez) / Atlanta (Vazquez) 7:35 ET 1.25 Units
Florida 5 Atlanta 3 Winner

Chicago Cubs (Wells) +135 / LA Dodgers (Wolf) 10:10 ET 1 Unit
Chicago 1 LA Dodgers 2 Lose


Thursday 8/20: +1.05 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)

Indianapolis +3 (+105) / Philadelphia 8:00 ET FOX 1 Unit
Indianapolis 23 Philadelphia 15 Winner

Thursday 8/20: +0.45/Unit (Volume: 1.50 Units)

Under 7.5 Runs (-105) Florida (Johnson) / Houston (Rodriguez) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Florida 1 Houston 4 Winner

Parlay: Minnesota (Swarzak) +190 / Texas (Holland) & Over 10 Runs (-125) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.11 Units
Minnesota 1 Texas 11 Lose
We're not expecting anything great from Anthony Swarzak tonight, just 5 or 6 decent innings without things getting out of hand which has been his problem of late (25 hits & 16 ER's in his last 3 starts, a total of 8 innings!) Yeah, pretty horrible numbers... so why the play? Because first, it's only a half unit risk at better than 4:1 on our money, and we're expecting Holland to have a sub par outing following 2 solid ones, especially the one before last where he went the distance at LA holding th Angels to just 3 hits and no runs while striking out 8. Many times pitchers suffer let downs after such performances, especially unproven young pitchers like Derek Holland. As mentioned, Holland won his next start (at home) against Boston on the 15th but not nearly as convincingly (6 2/3 innings, 7 hits, 2 walks, 2 ER's & 3 K's). Also, the Twins' bats have been finding ways to overcome big deficits in this series. They came back from 0-4 in the 5th last night to win 5-4 and from 1-5 in the 6th Tuesday night to win 9-6.  Bottom line is that if all the stars are lined up, we'll cash a nice parlay and if not, the damage is just a half unit.


Wednesday 8/19: +3.56 Units (Volume: 7.00 Units)

Under 7.5 Runs (-115) Arizona (Haren) / Philadelphia (Lee) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Arizona 1 Philadelphia 8 Lose

Over 8.5 Runs (-110) San Francisco (Zito) / Cincinnati (Arroyo) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
San Francisco 1 Cincinnati 0 Lose

Atlanta (Jurrijens) -175 / NY Mets (Parnell) 7:10 ET 1.5 Units
Atlanta 15 NY Mets 2 Winner

Under 9.5 Runs (Even) Florida (West) / Houston (Bazardo) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Florida 3 Houston 6 Winner

Chicago Cubs (Harden) -215 / San Diego (Latos) 10:05 ET 2 Units
Chicago Cubs 7 San Diego 0 (8th inning) FINAL PENDING

Parlay: Seattle (Snell) +250 / Detroit (Verlander) & Under 8.5 Runs (-115) 7:05ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.77 Units
Seattle 3 Detroit 1 Winner
Here's a real nice spot for a small half unit parlay. There seems to be very little "middle of the road" with Ian Snell. He's either on and will give you a strong outing or he gets smacked hard. If the latter is the case, so what, we lose a half unit but if Snell is on tonight, we stand a decent shot to win this parlay. Seattle has the hitters to put runs on the board and Verlander has given up 5 ER's in each of the 2 starts before his last start where he pitched 8 innings in Boston allowing just 4 hits & no runs (8/13). We only need to win this parlay once in 6 tries to make a profit! (1 win = +2.77 units, 5 losses = -2.50 units: +0.27/Unit on a volume of 3.00 units (+9%).


Tuesday 8/18: -1.86 units (Volume: 4.75 Units)

Over 9 Runs (-110) Colorado (Jimenez) / Washington (Stammen) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Colorado 4 Washington 3 Lose

Florida (Nolasco) -108 / Houston (Norris) 8:05 ET 1.5 Units
Florida 6 Houston 2 Winner
Nice price set up by recent performance. This is a pitching re-match of last week's game in Florida where the Astros tagged Nolasco for 8 hits & 10 ER's in 3 and a third innings en route to a 14-6 win. We were on the Over (8.5 Runs) in that game. Houston's Bud Norris was equally as bad giving up 10 hits & 5 runs (4 earned) in his 5 innings of work. The difference here is that Ricky Nolasco is a proven winner but he is known (especially lately since his recall from the minors in May) to be either dead on un-hittable, or to get belted. The good news is that his "beltings" are becoming fewer and further between as the Marlins have won 9 of Nolasco's last 12 starts and with the added motivation of revenge, we look for Ricky to pitch a gem in Houston tonight while Bud Norris continues to struggle.

Tampa Bay (Price) -1.5 Runs (-130) / Baltimore (Berken) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Tampa Bay 5 Baltimore 4 Lose
We're opting to lay the run and a half here as opposed to the big price (-260) with this home chalk situation. We're getting it at exactly half price as we're risking 1 unit to win 0.77/Unit, the same yield a 2 unit play on the money line.

Texas (Feldman) -1.5 Runs (-115) / Minnesota (Pavano) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Texas 6 Minnesota 9 Lose 


Monday 8/17: +2.03 Units (Volume: 6.50 Units)

Over 8 Runs (Even) Arizona (Scherzer) / Atlanta (Hanson) 4:05 ET 1.5 Units
Arizona 4 Atlanta 9 Winner

Baltimore (Hernandez) Even / LA Angels (Santana) 7:05 ET 1.50 Units
Baltimore 5 LA Angels 8 Lose
Over 10 Runs (-125) LA Angels (Santana) / Baltimore (Hernandez) 1.50 Units
LA Angels 8 Baltimore 5 Winner
We're risking a total of 3 units in this game to make 2.70 units, and with 5 Baltimore runs scored, we're just about free rolling! LA's Ervin Santana has been the beneficiary of plenty of good fortune this season when it comes to W's & L's. Santana is 5-6 on the year and the Angels are 8-6 in his starts... and that's with an overall ERA of 6.38 & a 1.57 WHIP!! On any other team, those numbers would surely have produced a MUCH worse W - L record. There's only so far you can push the luck factor when pitching in the big leagues. Santana has had some solid seasons with his best coming last year (16-7 3.49 ERA), but there's something wrong with him this year. In 7 of his 14 outings, Santana has allowed 5 or more earned runs and as mentioned his ERA is 6.38 overall. He is coming off of a complete game 3 hit shutout, but we can't see his woes being cured overnight. Both these teams have been scorching the baseball (averaging almost 18 runs per game in this series!)

Chicago WS (Buehrle) -240 / Kansas City (Bannister) 8:10 ET 2 Units
Chicago WS 8 Kansas City 7 Winner
Same price as our Detroit Play on Saturday (10-3 Winner) and as was the case in that game, we feel Chicago is under priced... should be in the -350 range. This is the time of the year when we'll be seeing "live favorites" with teams in heated pennant & wild card races playing teams that are completely out of it. Again, it's a risky proposition laying the run and a half with a home team to reduce the price, so we'll once again play 2 units to win 0.83/Unit here.


Sunday 8/16: -1.21 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)

Over 7.5 Runs (-115) Philadelphia (Happ) / Atlanta (Vazquez) 8:05 ET ESPN 1.25 Units
Philadelphia 4 Atlanta 1 Lose

Over 9 Runs (-120) LA Dodgers (Wolf) / Arizona (Petit) 4:10 ET 1.25 Units
LA Dodgers 9 Arizona 3 Winner

Under 10.5 Runs (+105) LA Angels (O'sullivan) / Baltimore (Guthrie) 1:35 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 17 Baltimore 8 Lose


Saturday 8/15: -1.20 Units (Volume: 1.20 Units)

Cleveland +3 (-120) / Green Bay 1 Unit
Cleveland 0 Green Bay 17 Lose

Saturday 8/15: +1.25 Units (Volume: 6.25 Units)

Houston (Moehler) +120 / Milwaukee (Burns) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Houston 2  Milwaukee 6 Lose

Chicago WS (Floyd) -115 / Oakland (Gonzalez) 4:05 ET 1.5 Units
Chicago WS 8  Oakland 1 Winner

Detroit (Jackson) -240 / Kansas City (Hochevar) 7:05 ET 2 Units
Detroit 10  Kansas City 3 Winner
This is the time of the year where we'll start seeing "live favorites."  Teams in pennant races playing teams out of the race entirely. The linemaker can't make a number big enough for this game. We feel Detroit should be in the 4:1 range here. As long as value exists, it really doesn't matter what the price is. Laying the run and a half is another option (-115) but can be tricky at home... We'll play it safe and risk 2 units here to win 0.833/unit.

LA Angels - Baltimore 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Under 10 Runs (-115) LA Angels (Lackey) / Baltimore (Matusz) 1 Unit
LA Angels 5  Baltimore 1 Winner
Parlay: Baltimore (ML) +135 & Under 10 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.70 Units
LA Angels 5  Baltimore 1 Lose
This play is entirely based on Brian Matusz, Baltimore's newest rookie addition, having a great outing. Can't see the O's bats remaining hot like last night (16 runs on 19 hits)... that's more runs than Baltimore scored in it's previous 5 games! So we're risking a total of 1.5 units for a possible win of 2.57 units, and with the under winning, we are guaranteed a profit of 0.37/Unit. 


Friday 8/14: -0.10 Units (Volume: 2.20 Units)

Under 32 St. Louis / NY Jets 7:05 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 23  NY Jets 20 Lose

New Orleans -3 / Cincinnati 8:00 ET 1 Unit
New Orleans 17  Cincinnati 7 Winner

Friday 8/14: +1.02 Units (Volume: 3.75 Units)

Under 8.5 Runs (-115) Colorado (Hammel) / Florida (Johnson) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Colorado 5 Florida 6 Lose

Parlay: NY Mets (Parnell) Even / San Francisco (Zito) & Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.33 Units
NY Mets 3  San Francisco 0 Lose
Barry Zito's been pitching way above his norm of late and is sure to throw in a classic Zito clunker soon! The Giants have won Zito's last 4 starts (Zito was 3-0 & 1 ND). Considering Zito has only 29 "W's" in a Giant uniform (29-40 2007-09  with an ERA in the upper 4.00's to be exact), his work since 7/23 (3 weeks ago) has accounted for over 10% of all his Giant wins. Barry's had 2+ seasons now to prove his worth for the gazillion dollars SF gave him, enough is enough! This is a nice spot for a half unit at 2.66:1.

Under 8 Runs (-120) LA Dodgers (Kershaw) / Arizona (Haren) 9:40 ET 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 1  Arizona 4 Winner

Baltimore (Tillman) +135 / LA Angels (Weaver) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Baltimore 16  LA Angels 6 Winner
68-44 (LAA) meets 47-67 (Baltimore), the Angels are coming off of a 3 game sweep of the Rays while the O's have won 3 of their last 10.... and the line's just LAA-145! Beware the easy looking money! We're not saying LA can't win the game but there's a reason for the cheap price. Remember what we said about this Baltimore team over the past couple of weeks with the young additions to their pitching staff and their youth move behind home plate with the trading of veteran Greg Zaun to clear the way for young Matt Wieters to see full time action. Baltimore is a team out of the playoffs yet looking towards the future and they'll fight for the rest of the season as they look to build their future. Chris Tillman gets the start tonight for the O's and although his numbers in his 3 games this season are a bit rough (1.44 WHIP & 5.19 ERA), he's coming off of a solid performance on the road in Detroit losing a tough one 2-3 pitching 6 2/3 innings allowing just 4 hits & 2 ER's.


Thursday 8/13: +0.80 Units (Volume: 3.30 Units)

Washington +3 (-120) / Baltimore 7:30 ET 1 Unit
Wahington 0 Baltimore 23 Lose

Pittsburgh -3 (Even) / Arizona 8:00 ET (ESPN) 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 20 Arizona 10 Winner

Oakland -2 / Dallas 10:00 ET 1 Unit
Oakland 31 Dallas 10 Winner

Thursday 8/13: -1.50 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)

Under 10.5 Runs (-115) Houston (Hampton) / Florida (West) 7:10 ET 1.5 Units
Houston 2 Florida 9 Lose


Wednesday 8/12: +1.33 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)

Toronto (Romero) +1.5 Runs (Even) / NY Yankees (Burnett) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 3 NY Yankees 4 Winner
Toronto (Romero) (ML) +210 / NY Yankees (Burnett) 0.5/Unit
Toronto 3 NY Yankees 4 Lose
We stand to make 2.05 Units for our 1.5 Unit risk, and a 1 run loss will still net us a half unit profit. Not a bad spot to be in considering these 2 pitcher's season stats are virtually identical: Romero 1.36 WHIP, 3.50 ERA and Burnett 1.37 WHIP, 3.67ERA. Also, Toronto, despite having a terrible 2nd half, is showing signs of life winning 3 of their last 4. Romero is coming off of a quality outing (6 innings, 2 hits, 2 ER's) vs Baltimore on 8/7 but he got the loss. Many times when a pitcher has a quality outing but loses, he's extremely focused in his next start. On the other hand, AJ Burnett is coming off of 7 2/3 innings of one-hit shutout ball at home vs Boston on the 7th (2-0 NY win). Many times after such a win, a pitcher follows up with an equally shaky outing which is what we're looking for this afternoon in the Bronx.

Over 8.5 Runs (Even) Houston (Norris) / Florida (Nolasco) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Houston 14 Florida 6 Winner

Over 9 Runs (-115) Texas (Hunter) / Cleveland (Carmona) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Texas 5 Cleveland 0 Lose

Under 7.5 Runs (-120) Chicago WS (Buehrle) / Seattle (Hernandez) 10:10 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 0 Seattle 1 Winner


Tuesday 8/11: -1.42 Units (Volume: 4.00 Units)

Chicago Cubs (Harden) -130 / Philadelphia (Happ) 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago Cubs 3 Philadelphia 4 Lose

St. Louis (Boggs) -150 / Cincinnati (Lehr) 8:15 ET 1.5 Units
St. Louis 4 Cincinnati 5 Lose

LA Angels (Santana) +106 / Tampa Bay (Price) 10:05 ET 1.25 Units
LA Angels 6 Tampa Bay 0 Winner


Monday 8/10: -1.50 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)

Baltimore (Guthrie) -155 / Oakland (Gonzalez) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Baltimore 1 Oakland 9 Lose
Baltimore -1.5 Runs (+120) / Oakland 0.5/Unit
Baltimore 1 Oakland 9 Lose
Although the O's have only won 4 of their last 12, there's alot of morale on the team as they're looking towards their future with several changes being made in the past week with the addition of 2008 first round pick lefty Brian Matusz and the trading of veteran catcher Greg Zaun which makes the O's 2007 first round pick, Matt Wieters, their starting backstop. As for the A's, they send Gio Gonzalez to the hill tonight. We were on Gio a couple times last week and he did show signs of promise as he's gone to the 7th inning in 2 of his last 3 starts allowing just 3 hits & 2 hits and only 1 run total in both of those victories against the Yanks & Texas, but he's had too many bad outings to rely on him. We're looking for Gonzalez to get hit hard tonight as he comes down to earth a bit and for Baltimore to get a much needed win at home for this young teams' psyche.


Sunday 8/09: -1.1 Units (Volume: 1.10 Units)

Under 31.5 Buffalo / Tennessee 8:00 ET 1 Unit
Buffalo 18 Tennessee 21 Lose


Sunday 8/09: +2.70 Units (Volume: 4.00 Units)

Florida (Johnson) -107 / Phiadelphia (Moyer) 1:35 ET 1 Units
Florida 12 Philadelphia 3 Winner

Washington (Martin) Even / Arizona (Petit) 1:35 ET 1 Unit
Washington 9 Arizona 2 Winner

Minnesota- Detroit 2 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
Detroit (Washburn) -118 / Minnesota (Baker) 1:05 ET 1.5 Units
Detroit 8 Minnesota 7 Winner
Detroit (Washburn) -1.5 Runs (+170) / Minnesota (Baker) 0.5/Unit
Detroit 8 Minnesota 7 Lose


Saturday 8/08: +1.10 Units (Volume: 6.50 Units)

Baltimore - Toronto 3 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
Baltimore (Tillman) +175 / Toronto (Cecil) 1:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Baltimore 2 Toronto 3 Lose
Over 9 Runs (-105) Baltimore (Tillman) / Toronto (Cecil) 1 Unit
Baltimore 2 Toronto 3 Lose
Parlay: Baltimore +175 & Over 9 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.18 Units
Baltimore 2 Toronto 3 Lose
Magic Number: 4 Baltimore Runs. With the O's putting 4 on the board, we must either push our Over play OR win our Baltimore ML play and our exposure will be reduced from 2 Units to 1 Unit with our possible win remaining at +4.00 Units.

Look familiar? Pretty much the same situation as our Baltimore plays this past Tuesday when we were on the O's with rookie Matusz making his MLB debut at Detroit and Baltimore coming away with the 8-2 win as we made +4.62 units for our 2 unit risk (same 3 plays as today... slightly different prices). We're on the O's again today for all the same reasons as Tuesday and a couple more.

Baltimore has packed in any playoff hopes a long time ago but this is a young team now competing for the future, they'e NOT just another .422 team making fall vacation plans. In Tuesday's Baltimore write-up, we told you how it was a special occurrence for O's fans to see their future in action as Matt Wieters (Baltimore's 2007 1st Round Pick) would catch Brian Matusz (2008 1st Round Pick), thus 2 of Baltimore's first round picks from back to back years would form the battery. To further add to Baltimore's commitment to the future, on Friday veteran catcher Greg Zaun was traded to Tampa Bay making Wieters the O's main backstop.

Today Baltimore sends another rookie pitcher to the hill: Chris Tilllman. In his first 2 starts, Tillman has been a bit shaky (10 2/3 IP 6.75 ERA & 1.69 WHIP), but he is surrounded by an enthusiastic team atmosphere and in such an environment, you tend to get more breaks than the next guy. For Toronto, Rookie Brett Cecil gets the start and although Cecil is 5-1, Toronto is 6-5 in Cecil's starts and his overall numbers are terrible: (4.36 ERA & 1.53 WHIP), and the clincher for us is the fact that the Blue Jays as a team are heading in the wrong direction at such a pivotal time of the year for a team trying to make the playoffs. Toronto has lost 6 of their last 8 and 23 of their last 33! So once again we see nice value in our position here with an up and coming team.

Parlay: Washington (Mock) +180 / Arizona (Haren) & Under 9 Runs (-115) 7:05 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.12 Units
Washington 5 Arizona 2 Winner
Look who's won 6 in a row... The Nationals! Nice value here as we're getting +424 on the Wash & Under parlay. Washington has won their last 6 in sloppy fashion giving up 29 run (4.83 rpg) while scoring 43 (7.2 rpg.). Tonight we don't expect the Nats to get much off of Dan Haren and despite Garrett Mock's terrible numbers (6.75 EA & 2.09 WHIP), the kid really doesn't have bad stuff if you've ever gotten the chance to watch him. What makes this play for us is the streak the Nats are on...when a team is going good, they they'll get the extra break or two needed to beat a Dan Haren.... especially at home.

Under 9.5 Runs (-115) Florida (West) / Philadelphia (Hamels) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Florida 6 Philadelphia 4 Lose

Chicago (Dempster) +128 / Colorado (Marquis) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Chicago 6 Colorado 5 Winner
We're sticking with our position on the Rockies that they're good fortune has come to an end. We're looking for Ryan Dempster to get back on track tonight after losing a heart breaker his last time out where he went 6 innings allowing no runs on just 3 hits & 4 walks yet the Cubs lost the game 2-3 at Florida as Dan Uggla & Cody Ross hit back to back homers in the bottom of the ninth to overcome a 1-2 deficit.

Over 7.5 Runs (+105) NY Mets (Parnell) / San Diego (Latos) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
NY Mets 1 San Diego 3 Lose

Minnesota (Pavano) +170 / Detroit (Verlander) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 11 Detroit 0 Winner
Carl Pavano makes his debut for the Twins tonight in Detroit. Pavano has one of the most controversial stories in baseball. After an 18 win season for Florida in 2004, Pavano was dealt to the Yankees and signed to a 4 year $40 Million deal. He won a total of 9 games in those 4 seasons as he was riddled with injuries even missing the entire 2006 season. He has shown signs of life in Cleveland this season after he was signed to an incentive laden one year deal. He has pitched 125 innings with an ERA in the low 5's and a 4:1 strike out to walk ratio (88-23). But more important, Pavano has beaten these Tigers 3 times so far this season with the most recent coming this past Sunday in Cleveland 11-1 as he went 8 innings giving up just 6 hits & 1 walk. In fact, Pavano has only give up 5 ER's to the Tigers this season in 23 1/3 innings (1.90 ERA).... Big overlay here especially since Verlander is coming off of a sub par outing: 9 hits & 5 ER's in 8 innings vs. Baltimore on Monday.


Friday 8/07: +1.89 Units (Volume: 4.25 Units)

Parlay: Pittsburgh (Maholm) +200 & Under 7 Runs (+105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.57 Units
Pittsburgh 4 St. Louis 6 Lose
Nice price if we can get into the bullpens late tied at 1 or 2. Of course not much room for error with such a low total, but we can't see the Pirates getting much at all against Carpenter so we're really just padding our price on Maholm with the Under parlay... +515 instead of +200 this way. 

Over 9 Runs (-110) Milwaukee (Villanueva) / Houston (Norris) 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Milwaukee 3 Houston 6 PUSH

Atlanta (Jurrijens) +120 / LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 10:10 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 9 LA Dodgers 5 Winner

Seattle (Hernandez) -126 / Tampa Bay (Niemann) 10:10 ET 1.5 Units
Seattle 7 Tampa Bay 6 Winner


Thursday 8/06: +4.13 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)

Parlay: Philadelphia (Lee) -165 / Colorado (Cook) & Under 8.5 Runs (-105) 1:05 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 2.13 Units
Philadelphia 3 Colorado 1 Winner
We feel the Cliff Lee trade to the Phils will have the biggest impact of all the mid season deals. Lee pitched a masterpiece in his first outing in a Phillie uniform last week (complete game 4 hitter: 1 ER) and we look for many more just like it down the stretch for the veteran lefty. Couple that with Colorado getting shut out last night by these Phils, with De La Rosa finally getting beat (see Wednesday's write-up of: Phils -1.5 runs +150 : 7-0 Winner), and we feel the recent tide is turning for both of these teams (Colorado had won 7of their last 10 going into lat night's game and Philly losers of 3 straight.

Over 7.5 Runs (+110) NY Mets (Hernandez) / San Diego (Richard) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
NY Mets 3 San Diego 8 Winner

Over 10 Runs (Even) Boston (Smoltz) / NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
NY Yankees 13 Boston 6 Winner


Wednesday 8/05: +3.96 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)

Philadelphia (Happ) -1.5 Runs (+150) / Colorado (De La Rosa) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 7  Colorado 0 Winner
It's been a tale of two seasons for the Rockies this year. After going 20-32 in their first 52 games, Colorado has gone 39-15 since and are currently 59-47  battling for 2nd place (and a wild card) in the NL west with the Giants (6.5 games behind LA).

The turning point of the Rockies season was June 4th in Houston where they beat the Astros 10-3 to prevent a 4 game series sweep. That sparked an 11 game winning streak (and 17 out of 18) and Colorado has been playing solid .600 ball ever since. As you know, baseball is a game of streaks, both hot and cold, and there are always catalysts that spark these streaks. In reviewing the Rockie's good fortune over the past 2 months, one thing stands out: Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa has shared the same exact run as Colorado as a team despite only starting in 23% of Colorado's games. In his first 10 starts (4/11 - 5/31), De La Rosa was 0-6 (4 ND's) with a 5.40 ERA with Colorado as a team 2-8 in those 10 games. And since then, after the Rockies caught fire, De La Rosa was 9-1 (he figured in the decision in each of those games) with a 3.79 ERA. And most recent, De La Rosa is 6-0 in his last 6 with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.00.

So what's the point? Both De La Rosa & the Rockies, who seem to share the same brain, are both playing above expectations and should be making a crash landing back to Earth any time now... especially De La Rosa. Not even using his season ERA (4.68) as a ruler because pitchers do improve over the coarse of a season, comparing his ERA over his last 6 starts to his ERA over his last 10 starts shows a 1.60 gap! De La Rosa's ERA L10 is 3.79 compared to 2.19 L6 only. We fully expect for this to adjust and what better time than tonight in Philadelphia after hammering Jaime Moyer 8-3 last night! We see no value in the money line here (-143), but if we're correct and De La Rosa is off tonight, the run and a half will be easy to overcome and we'll make 1.5 Units for our 1 unit risk as opposed to 0.70/Unit... over twice as much!

Milwaukee (Looper) +123 / LA Dodgers (Schmidt) 10:10 ET 2 Units
Milwaukee 4  LA Dodgers 1 Winner
You'll recall that we were ON the Dodgers +160 with Schmidt last week (Friday, 7/31) at Atlanta with Tommy Hanson (5-0 Winner). As you know we've been picking Atlanta's newest pitching prospect apart all season as we're now 5-2 in releases involving Tommy Hanson for a net profit of 4.90 units on a volume of 11.75 units (+42%). We've been citing in all of those "Hanson" releases that he's been getting way too many breaks where his numbers just didn't make any sense and as is usually the case, Hanson's world came crashing down. He started the season with 5 Braves wins in his first 5 starts. That's great and all but the only problem was that he was pulling more rabbits out of his cap than David Copperfield... Over a 4 game stretch, Hanson pitched 23 innings and allowed 34 base runners (18 hits and 16 walks) yet only 2 crossed the plate! That is no way to make a living as a major league pitcher and we've been taking advantage of this phenomenon all season. (Hanson is starting this afternoon at SD but we didn't feel there was any value there).

So again, here's the point... Although Jason Schmidt in that game vs. Hanson had a tremendous outing (6 innings of one hit, scoreless ball), we feel he was just in the right place at the right time and was the beneficiary of Hanson's luck factor straightening out... Atlanta gave him no run support in that game. We're not taking anything away from Schmidt as he's a great pitcher but also remember that he's recently back in the rotation after missing a season and a half due to extensive arm & shoulder surgery. Since his return, in 3 starts Schmidt is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA & a 1.43 WHIP. Too short of a stat to really mean anything yet but as is the case with most once great starters returning after extensive rehabilitation, it takes time to return to old form, and remember, Schmidt's 36 years old. Injuries don't heal as easy at that age. So we look tonight for  bit of a "let down" after allowing just 1 hit in his last start. Also note that Schmidt's control is a bit of  problem since returning as he's walked 9 while striking out only 6 in 14 innings.


Tuesday 8/04: +6.50 Units (Volume: 6.00 Units)

Over 7 Runs (-105) St. Louis (Piniero) / NY Mets (Santana) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 12 NY Mets 7 Winner

Baltimore - Detroit 3 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
Baltimore (Matusz) +190 / Detroit (Washburn) 7:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Baltimore 8 Detroit 2 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (-105) Baltimore /Detroit 1 Unit
Baltimore 8 Detroit 2 Winner
Parlay: Baltimore +190 & Over 8.5 Runs Risk 0.5Unit to win 2.72 Units
Baltimore 8 Detroit 2 Winner
Magic Number: 4 Baltimore Runs. With the O's putting 4 on the board, we must win either our Over play OR our Baltimore ML play and our exposure will be reduced from 2 Units to 0.55/Unit with our possible win remaining at 4.62 Units.

Jared Washburn is making his Detroit Debut tonight after being dealt from Seattle right before the deadline. Washburn was 8-6 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP this season with the Mariners. In his last 5 starts, Washburn has been virtually un-hittable with a 1.32 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over 36 2/3 innings. There's nothing like a change of scenery to throw a monkey wrench into a pitcher's rhythm (or get a struggling quality pitcher on track which was the case with Cliff Lee for Philly on Friday beating the Giants 5-1 with a complete game 4 hitter. Cleveland lost 5 of Lee's last 8 starts before he was traded).

For Baltimore, Brian Matusz will make his major league debut. Matusz was the O's 2008 first round (fourth overall) pick and he has had solid numbers in AA this season: 8-0, 1.57 ERA & 0.93 WHIP. Also, catching Matusz for the O's will be their 2007 first round (fifth overall) pick Matt Weiters. This is a very special occurrence for Baltimore fans with 2 of their 1st round picks from back to back years forming tonight's Baltimore battery. This will give the game certain meaning in an otherwise meaningless environment since Baltimore is not making the playoffs (44-61), but now they get to see their future in action with no pressure on them.

Tampa Bay (Garza) -122 / Boston (Lester) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Tampa Bay 4 Boston 2 Winner
Huge series for the Rays as they're 5.5 back in the east behind NY & the Red Sox. We expect Tampa to get hot down the stretch just like they did last season. Boston's Lester has been showing signs of slowing down as he's given up 9 ER's in his last 3 starts (20 innings pitched: 4.05 ERA).  

Kansas City (Hochevar) -105 / Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 6 Seattle 7 Lose

Oakland (Gonzalez) +111 /  Texas (Holland) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
Oakland 6 Texas 0 Winner


Monday 8/03: +1.77 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)

Houston (Hampton) +118 / San Francisco (Cain) 8:05 ET 1.5 Units
Houston 4 San Francisco 3 Winner
There's a time, place & situation to be on a team. Yesterday we were ON the Giants with Barry Zito because of the value. We were getting SF +155 at home from Philly with Cole Hamels. This price was the product of recent results without taking into account the normal deviations from the norm which all pitchers and teams go through. Going into yesterday's game, the Giants had averaged just 3 runs per game over their last 10 (almost a full run below their season average of 3.93 rpg.) and Philly's Cole Hamels had been pitching way above his season numbers. In his last 3 starts, Hamels had a 0.75 WHIP and a 2.25 ERA giving up just 12 hits, 3 walks & 5 ER's over 20 innings compared to his season mark of a 1.27 WHIP and a 4.40 ERA. We knew that had either one of those 2 trends start to straighten out in yesterday's game we stood at least a 50 - 50 shot to win while getting paid +155.... and what happened... BOTH trends went the other way! Hamels got shelled for 10 hits & 6 ER's in 5 innings and SF put 7 runs on the board winning 7-3.

Tonight it's the same situation only it's the Giants laying the wood on the road with Matt Cain at Houston with Mike Hampton. SF's Cain has been pitching way above the norm the whole season (1.17 WHIP & 2.12 ERA) but  over his last 3 starts he's put up crazy numbers: 0.83 WHIP & 0.78 ERA including a complete game 3 hit, 2 walk shutout in his last outing. In his last 3 starts, Cain pitched 23 innings allowing 11 hits, 8 walks & 2 ER's (only 2 base runners out of 19 have crossed the plate!) On the other hand, Houston's Hampton has struggled lately getting smacked around in his last 3 starts to the tune of a 215 WHIP & 9.98 ERA! You can be sure that Hampton will find his groove before long and we're expecting it to be tonight as the Astros are still in the thick of things in the NL Central tied with Milwaukee just 4.5 games back of St. Louis & the Cubs. Tonight Houston is returning home after a 2-5 road trip and the Giants are going on the road after a 6-1 home stand.... often is the case of teams' fortunes changing along with their venue.

Additional note:
Despite the "obvious" choice of the red hot Giants and Matt Cain, the line has gone down 10 cents (-128 from te opening number of -138). 


Sunday 8/02: +3.18 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)

Chicago WS (Buhrle) +130 / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 2:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 5 NY Yankees 8 Lose
The White Sox are going for the 4 game sweep of New York this afternoon as CC Sabathia and Mark Buhrle face off. We've pointed out many times the fact that Sabathia has been one of the biggest betting flops in baseball this season. In Sabathia's 22 starts, the Yankees are 11-11 this season and a 1 unit risk on each would have yielded a -5.19 Unit loss... -23.6%/volume! With NY losers of 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, they're depending on Sabathia to be their "go to guy".... Sure, there's plenty of "the Yankees aren't going to get swept" talk and it would seem real easy to take CC at such a cheap price but let's not forget that Buhrle pitched a perfect game 2 starts ago (and has had his "let down loss" since). These are 2 teams going in opposite directions and we look for that to continue (at least through today). Also remember, the Yankees, no matter how good they are, always seem to throw in some horrible runs. Last year, right around this time NY lost 8 of 11 (between 8/04 - 8/15) and have already lost 4 straight and 5 straight earlier this season. Look for the Sox to complete the sweep as they have their eye on first place in the Central just a game and a half back of the Tigers.

LA Dodgers (Billingsly) +127 / Atlanta (Jurrijens) 8:05 ET 1.25 Unit
LA Dodgers 9 Atlanta 1 Winner

San Francisco (Zito) +155 / Philadelphia (Hamels) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
San Francisco 7 Philadelphia 3 Winner
Not a bad spot to risk a unit. The Giants have found ways to win without scoring this season as they're 57-47 while averaging under 4 runs per game (3.93) and we don't expect them to get much today off of Cole Hamels. As much of a disappointment Barry Zito has been since SF signed him in 2007 (27-40 with an ERA in the upper 4's), he has what it takes to keep his team in the game. In fact, despite Zito being 6-10 this season, he's been a money maker. The Giants are 10-11 in his starts but because of the lack of respect he's getting in the line, a 1 unit risk on each of Zito's starts would have yielded a profit of +1.88 units (+9%/Volume). 

Under 8 Runs (-120) Chicago Cubs (Dempster) / Florida Nolasco) 4:05 ET 1.25 Unit
Chicago Cubs 2 Florida 3 Winner


Saturday 8/01: +1.66 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)

Parlay: Houston (Rodriguez) +175 / St. Louis (Carpenter) & Under 7 Runs (-105) 7:15 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.18 Units
Houston 1 St. Louis 3 Lose
The price is right here getting over 4:1 where as if the game stays under, it's really anyone's game with these 2 teams and these 2 starters. We'll take a half unit shot.

Paray: Chicago WS (Danks) +130 / NY Yankees (Burnett) & Under 8.5 Runs (-115) 4:05 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.65 Units
Chicago 14 NY Yankees 4 Lose
Once again, nice price (+330) to get paid on a very possible scenario.

Detroit (Porcello) -117 / Cleveland (Sowers) 7:05 ET 1.5 Units
Detroit 4 Clevelenad 3 Winner

LA Angels (Saunders) +138 / Minnesota (Swarzak) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 11 Minnesota 6 Winner