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Week: 4/05 - 4/11
+1.92 Units (Volume: 21.50 Units)
Sunday, 04/11 NBA: -0.13 Units (Volume: 3.00 Unit)
Under 198 Orlando / Cleveland 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Orlando 98 Cleveland 92 Winner
Toronto +2.5 / Chicago 6:00 ET 1.50 Units
Toronto 88 Chicago 104 Lose
All the pressure is on the Bulls here. On the surface the situation looks like a one game playoff between 2 "dead even" teams for the last seed in the east, but there's much more to it. First of all, the Raptors own the tie breaker having already beaten the Bulls twice this season, so a loss to Chicago here means Toronto can still make the playoffs by winning their last 2 games (a not so difficult task: @ Detroit and home vs the Knicks) while the Bulls drop at least 1 of their remaining 2 (home vs Boston and @ Charlotte). This would give these teams identical records of 40-42 and as mentioned the tie breaker goes to Toronto. But with a Bulls loss today, Chicago would have to win their 2 remaining games while Toronto loses theirs... very tough spot to be in. So we'll side with the home team here who are the much more relaxed team knowing this isn't their only way into the post season. Also, we're getting an 8 point adjustment in the line (Toronto was -5.5 in their last game in this building against the Bulls)... absurd... and the only reason is the absence of Chris Bosh. No one player in the NBA is worth an 8 point adjustment. Sure, the Bulls are healthy now but playing on the road in a building you've won only once in the past 5 times, against a team you've lost to 8 of the last 10 times, the most recent coming at home 78-110 on 12/05, and knowing that this is pretty much your only shot at making the post season, it'll be too much pressure for these young Bulls... AND they have to lay 2.5 points on the road... we also now have the luxury of covering a close game.
Saturday 04/10 NBA: +0.46 Units (Volume 5.75 Units)
NJ Nets +11 / Indiana 7:00 ET 1.00 Unit
NJ Nets 102 Indiana 115 Lose
Remember, less than 2 weeks ago there was plenty of talk as to the Nets not making the 10 win mark for the season which would have given them the record for the worst record in NBA history, but on 3/29 New Jersey upset the Spurs at home 90-84 putting that ordeal to rest. Since that win the Nets have notched 2 more very impressive wins beating the Hornets 115-87 and most recent last night pulling out the OT win against the Bulls 127-116. Also factored in is the fact that the Pacers are playing well above average of late winning their last 3 games by an average of 14 ppg while shooting better than 50% from the field combined, including last night's road win in Cleveland 116-113.
It always takes the line maker time to adjust to an improving team. Not saying Jersey are all of a sudden contenders, but on the flip side we can't justify a 31-48 team laying double digits to anybody... home or not. It's obvious that these young Nets have not packed it in and are clearly playing for some momentum to carry with them to next season, so you can be sure they'll be fighting all the way here. Look for a natural letdown here by the Pacers after winning in Cleveland, even though the Cavs weren't really playing as they've locked up their playoff positioning.
Under 188 Detroit / Charlotte 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Detroit 95 Charlotte 99 Lose
Look for Larry Brown to force his team to sharpen up on defense tonight as the playoffs get close. The Bobcats have given up an average of 99 ppg in their last 4, over 5 points more than their season average. Also, the Pistons will most likely still be in shock having won their 3rd straight game last night in Miami 106-99 on 50% shooting... can't see them coming anywhere close to repeating here.
Boston +1.5 / Milwaukee 8:30 ET 1.25 Units
Boston 105 Milwaukee 90 Winner
Over 188.5 Boston / Milwaukee 2.00 Units
Boston 105 Milwaukee 90 Winner
Grueling schedule this week as both Boston & Atlanta are playing their 4th game in 5 nights and both have travelled after each of those games, so add 4 plane trips in the last 5 days to each teams agendas since Tuesday and you have 2 very tired teams. It takes much more energy to play good defense as opposed to playing a more open game, so we feel both clubs will be content in swapping baskets which should allow for this game to get over he total easily, and we're giving Boston the edge in the game as they have the more dangerous offense behind the shooting of Ray Allen & Rajon Rondo.
Friday 04/09 NBA: -2.25 Units (Volume 2.25 Units)
Atlanta -10.5 / Toronto 7:30 ET 1.00 Unit
Atlanta 107 Toronto 101 Lose
Yes, Toronto is battling with the Bulls for the last playoff spot in the East, but it looks as if Chicago is going to take it. The Raptors are now without Chris Bosh for at least a couple of weeks with a broken face after taking an elbow from Cleveland's Antawn Jamison in Tuesday's game. Toronto was limping into the playoffs even with Bosh, as they have one of the worst defenses, so now without him down the stretch when he's really needed seals their fate. We look for a blowout tonight in Atlanta...
Miami -11.5 / Detroit 7:30 ET 1.25 Units
Miami 99 Detroit 106 Lose
Detroit has to be looking to just end this season and get on with their vacation plans. Multiple injuries are hitting the Pistons and they really have nobody to step up. Meanwhile, the Heat are peaking at the right time having won 9 straight (6-2-1 ATS) going into tonight's game at home. We look for another blowout here as Miami gets ready for the playoffs while putting on a show for the Friday night South Beach crowd.
Thursday 04/09 NBA: 0 (Volume 0 Units)
PASS
Wednesday 04/07 NBA: +4.33 Units (Volume 4.75 Units)
Under 219 NY Knicks / Indiana 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
NY Knicks 105 Indiana 113 Winner
Over 192 Washington / Orlando 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Washington 94 Orlando 121 Winner
Over 209 San Antonio Phoenix 10:30 ET 2.00 Units
San Antonio 101 Phoenix 112 Winner
Tuesday 04/06 NBA: -0.49 Units (Volume 5.75 Units)
Over 197 Detroit / Philadelphia 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Detroit 124 Philadelphia 103 Winner
Washington +3 / Golden State 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Washington 112 Golden State 94 Winner
Now wait just a second... Golden State (6 road wins all season) are laying points on the road? This coming after a very emotional win in Toronto on Sunday which tied Nellie for most wins by an NBA coach...
Washington, despite playing for nothing at this point, has a very loyal fan base and will be scrapping at every chance to win every winnable game at home down the stretch. In fact, the Wizards have covered 3 of their last 4 and really haven't gotten blown out at all lately... they've been putting forth the effort. Look for the home team to give their loyal fans something to cheer about tonight against an emotionally drained team coming off a very big franchise win for their leader...
Under 212 Oklahoma City / Utah 9:00 ET 1.75 Units
Oklahoma City 139 Utah 140 Lose
Sacramento +7 / San Antonio 10:00 ET 1.25 Units
Sacramento 86 San Antonio 95 Lose
The Spurs are coming off of 3 big wins: 119-102 vs Houston(3/31), 112-100 vs Orlando (4/02), and most recently 100-81 @ the Lakers on national TV on Sunday. With dates at Phoenix, home vs Memphis & at Denver next (3 games in 4 nights), we can't see San Antonio putting forth much of an effort here. Tony Parker will most likely be making his return tonight, so the Spurs will be more interested in getting him worked back into the rotation. Good spot here for the Kings, whose home record is very respectable (17-20), to pull the upset.