(1.75 & 2 Unit Releases).
Thursday, 06/17 NBA: -1.36 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Series Play:
(Releases 6/08 with the series tied 1-1)
LA Lakers -130 / Boston Game 3 Starts 9:00 ET
LA Lakers 4 games Boston 3 games Winner
Series Hedge Play*: Please read below
Boston +7 / LA Lakers 9:00 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 79 LA Lakers 83 Winner
*This is only a play for those who played our LA series release.
Most of you received our 2-Unit play on LA -130 for the series released on 6/08 (when the series was tied at 1). We are now opting to cash in that play in hopes of hitting a middle. By betting Boston +7, a Laker win by 7 or less and we stand to make +3.64 Units and our risk is reduced to the juice on the 2 plays (0.18/Unit).
Remember, we do not "like" Boston here, it is strictly a value move as we feel there's a high likelihood of a very tight game going down to the wire.
Game Seven
Over 186 Boston / LA Lakers 9:00 ET 5.00 Units
Boston 79 LA Lakers 83 Lose
Sunday, 06/13 NBA: +1.82 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Under 188 LA Lakers / Boston 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 86 Boston 92 Winner
Thursday, 06/10 NBA: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
LA Lakers +4 / Boston 9:00 ET 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 89 Boston 96 Lose
You can pretty much throw all stats and trends out the window here... the words of Paul Pierce have awoken the sleeping giant. As if Kobe and the Lakers weren't motivated enough by the beating they took 2 years ago to these Celtics in the Finals, now you can add to it Paul Pierce boasting at the end of game 2 in LA how "... we're not coming back to LA...." Well Paul, you just may get your wish because after losing game 3 at home, the Lakers can now smell blood and you can be sure that this is one championship LA won't mind winning away from home. We look for the Lakers to take total control with a win tonight.
Sunday, 06/06 NBA: -3.00 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)
Under 191 Boston / LA Lakers 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 103 LA Lakers 94 Lose
Parlay: LA Lakers (ML) -260 & Under 191 Risk 1.00 Unit to win 1.60 Units
Boston 103 LA Lakers 94 Lose
Thursday, 06/03 NBA: +1.82 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
LA Lakers -5.5 / Boston 9:00 ET 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 102 Boston 89 Winner
Saturday, 05/29 NBA: +1.82 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Under 216 LA Lakers / Phoenix 8:30 ET 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 111 Phoenix 103 Winner
Thursday, 05/27 NBA: +1.37 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)
Under 217.5 Phoenix / LA Lakers 9:00 ET 1.50 Units
Phoenix 101 LA Lakers 103 Winner
Tuesday, 05/25 NBA: +1.82 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Phoenix +1.5 / LA Lakers 9:00 ET 2.00 Units
Phoenix 115 LA Lakers 106 Winner
Monday, 05/24 NBA: +1.82 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Over 186.5 Orlando / Boston 8:30 ET 2.00 Units
Orlando 96 Boston 92 (OT) Winner
Can't see either team playing with much defensive intensity tonight. It's a done deal that Boston is advancing to the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons, and the Magic... well they're ashamed of themselves and it will show tonight. Look for a complete 180 in style of play here as compared to games one through three of this series which saw all 3 games stay well under the number. We're also getting a "free" extra couple of points as the linemaker has adjusted tonight's total as expected due to the series pace thus far.
Sunday, 05/23 NBA: +4.55 Units (Volume: 5.00 Units)
Phoenix -1 / LA Lakers 8:30 ET 5.00 Units
Phoenix 118 LA Lakers 109 Winner
You can put the brooms away... in the west at least. Unlike the fiasco unfolding in the Eastern Conference Finals, nothing really unexpected has happened in this series. LA is up 2-0 on the Suns with two home wins, so now it's Phoenix' turn to win in their building. The Suns will still have three shots to win in the Staples Center to move on the the Finals, but of course they must win at home for that opportunity to exist. Although Phoenix seems to be outmatched by this much bigger Laker team, the Suns certainly have what it takes to make this a series. And don't forget, LA has been known to fall asleep at the wheel when you least expect it, and we feel this is one of those times. Despite being down 0-2 in the series losing by 12 & 21, Phoenix hung around in both of those games. Realize that it took 58% shooting by LA in both games 1 & 2 to put the Suns away, a stat that will surely come back down to earth on the road..
Wednesday, 05/19 NBA: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Under 216.5 Phoenix / LA Lakers 9:00 ET 2.00 Units
Phoenix 112 LA Lakers 124 Lose
Monday, 05/17 NBA: +0.82 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)
LA Lakers -6 / Phoenix 9:00 ET 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 128 Phoenix 107 Winner
Parlay: LA Lakers (ML) -320 & Under 210.5 Risk 1 Unit to win 1.50 Units
LA Lakers 128 Phoenix 107 Lose
These teams have had a near identical post season run. Both went 6 games in their opening round series... LA with the Thunder and Phoenix with the Blazers. Both then went on to sweep in round 2... LA swept the Jazz while Phoenix made quick work of the Spurs. So both teams are well rested having had an entire week off. Only real difference on paper with these two teams in the playoffs is ATS... 8-2 ATS for the Suns and 6-4 ATS for the Lakers.
So what does it all mean? It means the average bettor trying to figure things out is left scratching his head, so the only "logical" thing to do is to take the points with the better ATS playoff team.... right? Wrong! One thing easily overlooked, or perhaps not understood, is the fact that the week off will prove to be the downfall for Phoenix while LA will look back, if they do go on to win the Championship, and attribute this rest to the reason why. You see, the Lakers needed the rest to heal, especially Kobe. The rest has only helped the Lakers. Meanwhile, the Suns also were able to get healthy during the break as Robin Lopez is expected to return to action tonight after missing nearly 2 months with a bulging disk in his back. Problem with this is that it usually takes time to work a key player back into the line up after an extensive absence, especially with a team as offensively dependent as the Suns. There are too many moving parts in Phoenix' offensive machine, so there lies a good chance that things won't run as smooth tonight for the Suns in LA as they have in the past month since the playoffs began.
Sure, Vujacic also should return for the Lakers also off an extended absence, but given the fact that LA is a much more defensive minded team, there are less moving parts hence less chance of LA's rhythm being compromised. But there still should be expected a certain degree of rustiness from both teams tonight because of the layoff, and also the fact that Bryant, Gasol & Bynum have had little if any practice this past week while nursing their injuries which is why we're also on the Under.
Sunday, 05/16 NBA: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Over 189 Boston / Orlando 3:30 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 92 Orlando 88 Lose
Monday, 05/10 NBA: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Over 191.5 Orlando / Atlanta 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Orlando 98 Atlanta 84 Lose
It's obvious the Hawks have packed it in, and they're making a very ugly exit. Not only did they run into an Orlando team on a mission, playing their best ball in years, but Atlanta has managed to alienate their fans in the process. Very sad set of circumstances after rebuilding these past 3 seasons and really making some big progress. You'll remember we were on Milwaukee over Atlanta in game 6 after the Bucks took a 3-2 series lead thanks to the Hawks blowing a huge game 5 lead. Atlanta did wind up winning game 6 (a loss for us), but here's what we had to say about that game and the sad state of affairs we thought Atlanta was in during that first round series:
Here's our write up from that game:
"...We're backing the Bucks again tonight for many of the same reasons we were on them in game 5. Atlanta has collapsed mentally and has given the little dog hope, (or in this case the little "deer"), so now fittingly it will be Atlanta with the deer in the headlights look upon their faces come the final minutes tonight in Milwaukee, as the Bucks know this is their game seven... lose tonight and the series will be all but over as the momentum will totally shift back to Atlanta as they breathe a huge sigh of relief...
We'll say it again tonight. Things aren't always as they seem in the NBA, especially in the playoffs. There's plenty of talk to the effect of the future of Joe Johnson, as well as Coach Woodson is riding on this game and advancing to the second round. This is certainly the year Atlanta is supposed to make it out of the first round, considering the dues they've paid these past 3 seasons. Remember, in Joe Johnson's second year with Atlanta the Hawks won just 30 games (2006-07). Then the following year, as heavy dogs, Atlanta took the Celtics to 7 games before finally succumbing in one of the most exciting first rounds ever. Then last season Atlanta broke through and won in 7 games over the Heat to advance, but ran into Cleveland and got swept. So here they are again, their 3rd straight year in the post season and off of a 52 win regular season, Atlanta is expected to get past Milwaukee, especially given the Buck's current status (without their big man). What happened? Who knows exactly, but it's clear that Atlanta is running on fumes emotionally and all the momentum is with the under manned Bucks playing on their home court. This very well may be the last game you'll see Joe Johnson play in a Hawks uniform as they'll have the entire summer to wonder what could have been had only they been able to close out game 5 at home...."
The line maker is no fool and has adjusted tonight's line big time as per the current circumstances. Laying -6.5 is a real tough number, something we're not interested in doing, but we feel there's great value in the over tonight. Both teams will hit the floor extremely loose, but for different reasons. Orlando knows they're advancing, and the Hawks know they'll be on vacation most likely after tonight. There's no place for defense here. You're going to see a lot of school yard ball tonight, about the only way for this depleted Hawks team to take out their frustration. And you can be sure the Magic aren't going to be too interested in wasting valuable energy with defense on these hapless Hawks. Even if Atlanta does slip up and win tonight, what's the worst thing that will happen? Orlando goes home and mops up the mess on their home court Wednesday night... giving them a little scrimmage before advancing. Look for a wide open game as this one flies over... -END
Sunday, 05/09 NBA: -2.86 Units (Volume: 5.25 Units)
Under 195 Cleveland / Boston 3:30 ET 1.25 Units
Cleveland 87 Boston 97 Winner
Under 207 Phoenix / San Antonio 8:00 ET 1.50 Units
Phoenix 107 San Antonio 101 Lose
Parlay: San Antonio (ML) -180 & Under 207 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.98/Unit
San Antonio 101 Phoenix 107 Lose
We're splitting our 2-Unit risk on the Under over 2 plays and stand to make +2.35 Units for our 2 Unit risk (30% more than a single 2 Unit risk on the Under would yield). We feel the Spurs aren't going to just lay down here, but laying -4 here could be risky business. San Antonio knows the only way they're going to beat the Suns is to get to crank things up on defense, so look for the Spurs to try and take Phoenix out of their run and gun game and control the tempo with longer possessions in hopes of extending this series. This is the one team down 0-3 in a best of seven series we wouldn't count out just yet...
Series Play: San Antonio - Phoenix (Released 5/03)
San Antonio (Even) / Phoenix 2 Units (game 1 starts 10:30 ET)
San Antonio 0 Games Phoenix 4 Games Lose
We're back on the Spurs to continue their playoff run. This is a veteran team whose won it all several times with this same team. Sure they're getting on in years and many question their endurance, but we feel they still have what it takes to win it all, and this may very well be their last chance.
Saturday, 05/08 NBA: +2.91 Units (Volume: 4.25 Units)
Under 194.5 Orlando / Atlanta 5:00 ET 1.75 Units
Orlando 105 Atlanta 75 Winner
LA Lakers +4.5 / Utah 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 111 Utah 110 Winner
Parlay: LA Lakers (ML) +165 & Under 202.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.03 Units
LA Lakers 111 Utah 110 Lose
Unfortunately for Utah, their season is just about over. The Jazz put up a valiant effort this post season beating Denver in 6 games, but playing without Kirilenko since mid March and then losing Okur on 4/21 is proving too much to overcome. Yes, Kirilenko will return tonight, but as is usually the case when a key player makes his return to the line-up after a prolonged absence, it'll take time to get him worked back into the rotation and used to playing again, time that the Jazz simply do not have as the Lakers are finally getting it all together.
Friday, 05/07 NBA: +0.57 Units (Volume: 3.25 Units)
Under 193.5 Cleveland / Boston 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Cleveland 124 Boston 95 Lose
Under 207 Phoenix / San Antonio 9:30 ET 2.00 Units
Phoenix 110 San Antonio 96 Winner
Thursday, 05/06 NBA: +0.32 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)
Atlanta +10 / Orlando 8:00 ET 1.50 Units
Atlanta 98 Orlando 112 Lose
Over 190 Atlanta / Orlando 8:05 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 98 Orlando 112 Winner
After game 1 of this series, at face value it really is tough to play the Hawks. But remember, embarrassments like that are taken seriously by players. Even though Atlanta most likely knows they're not getting past the Magic, they're not going to just roll over and die. They've worked too hard these past 2 seasons and are a much improved team, so to pack it in here would negate any positive momentum they have to carry into next season. We expect a close game throughout tonight, and the fact that this game has gone to 10 is even better. Usually there's an automatic slight adjustment giving the game one losing team fewer points, but because of the lopsided game 1 score, the linemaker has no choice here as the public is driving the number. Also realize that Atlanta was only outscored by 2 points in each the 1st & 4th quarters of game 1 (23-25 & 27-29). What did them in was scoring just 21 points combined in quarters 3 & 4 (10 & 11)... not likely to repeat those numbers.
Tuesday, 05/04 NBA: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Over 191.5 Atlanta / Orlando 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 71 Orlando 114 Lose
Monday, 05/03 NBA: -1.50 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)
Series Play: San Antonio - Phoenix
San Antonio (Even) / Phoenix 2 Units (game 1 starts 10:30 ET)
PENDING
We're back on the Spurs to continue their playoff run. This is a veteran team whose won it all several times with this same team. Sure they're getting on in years and many question their endurance, but we feel they still have what it takes to win it all, and this may very well be their last chance.
Boston - Cleveland - Game 2
Cleveland -6 / Boston 8:00 ET 1.50 Units
Cleveland 86 Boston 104 Lose
This season truly is the changing of the guard in the East. Boston no longer has what it takes to play at a championship level, a combination of aging stars and poor coaching. The Cavs seem to have finally put it all together this year and look as if they're Finals bound and how fitting it will be to get their revenge here against the Celtics who knocked them out of the playoffs 2 years ago in the Conference Semifinals in 7 games, and then to get their revenge in this years Conference Finals against Orlando (presuming Orlando gets past Atlanta) who beat them in the Conference Finals last year in 6 games.
Sure, Boston played Cleveland tough in the opening game... but they blew a solid lead.. inexcusable. If you want any chance of beating the Cavs home court advantage, you can't let opportunities like that slip away. Boston has to be deflated. And to think Cleveland now has had the film from game one to study and make sure they don't let happen whatever it was that put them in the early hole to begin with... Can't imagine how big Cleveland will win tonight if they do indeed make the necessary corrections..
Also remember that 7 game Conference Finals series 2 years ago, the year the Celtics won 66 regular season games and the NBA Championship. Cleveland won all their home games in that series by 24, 11 & 5. They were laying -2. -2 & -3 in those games.. and tonight they're only -6 (Boston was laying -9 in their home playoff games that year to the Cavs). We feel the linemakers's giving Boston a bit too much respect here, or the Cavs not enough....
Sunday, 05/02 NBA: -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Unit)
Over 185 Milwaukee / Atlanta 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Milwaukee 74 Atlanta 95 Lose
Saturday, 05/01 NBA: 0.00 Units (Volume: 0.00 Unit)
PASS
Friday, 04/30 NBA: +0.20 Units (Volume: 2.50 Unit)
Series Play: +1.70 Units (Released 4/17)
Utah +170 / Denver 1.00 Unit Game 1 Start 10:30 ET
Play on Utah to win the series.
Utah 4 Games Denver 2 Games Winner
Milwaukee +2 / Atlanta 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Milwaukee 69 Atlanta 83 Lose
We're backing the Bucks again tonight for many of the same reasons we were on them in game 5. Atlanta has collapsed mentally and has given the little dog hope, (or in this case the little "deer"), so now fittingly it will be Atlanta with the deer in the headlights look upon their faces come the final minutes tonight in Milwaukee, as the Bucks know this is their game seven... lose tonight and the series will be all but over as the momentum will totally shift back to Atlanta as they breathe a huge sigh of relief...
We'll say it again tonight. Things aren't always as they seem in the NBA, especially in the playoffs. There's plenty of talk to the effect of the future of Joe Johnson, as well as Coach Woodson is riding on this game and advancing to the second round. This is certainly the year Atlanta is supposed to make it out of he first round, considering the dues they've paid these past 3 seasons. Remember, in Joe Johnson's second year with Atlanta the Hawks won just 30 games (2006-07). Then the following year, as heavy dogs, Atlanta took the Celtics to 7 games before finally succumbing in one of the most exciting first rounds ever. Then last season Atlanta broke through and won in 7 games over the Heat to advance, but ran into Cleveland and got swept. So here they are again, their 3rd straight year in the post season and off of a 52 win regular season, Atlanta is expected to get past Milwaukee, especially given the Buck's current status (without their big man). What happened? Who knows exactly, but it's clear hat Atlanta is running on fumes emotionally and all the momentum is with the under manned Bucks playing on their home court. This very well may be the last game you'll see Joe Johnson play in a Hawks uniform as they'll have the entire summer to wonder what could have been had only they been able to close out game 5 at home....
Thursday, 04/29 NBA: -1.30 Units (Volume: 4.00 Unit)
Series Play: +1.70 Units (Released on 4/18)
San Antonio +170 / Dallas 1 Unit
Play on the Spurs to win this series
San Antonio 4 Games Dallas 2 Games Winner
Over 190.5* Dallas / San Antonio 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Dallas 87 San Antonio 97 Lose
Parlay: San Antonio (ML) -190 & Over 190.5 Risk 1.00 Unit to win 1.91 Units
Dallas 87 San Antonio 97 Lose
*Note on the O/U line: The total is down a half point from the opener of 191. there are some scattered 190's out there, and we feel the line will continue to drop, so you may want to wait until a bit closer to tip-off.
Elimination game for Dallas tonight in enemy territory. We've said all along the Spurs would be dangerous in the playoffs. We have a pending 1 Unit play on San Antonio +170 for the series, so there's no need to go too heavy on them tonight, although we are using them on the ML tied in with the Over for a nice +1.91 unit payout.
After extreme defense throughout the series played by both teams (186.6 ppg average this series), we feel strongly tonight will be a much looser game and as you know, it takes much more energy to play quality defense as opposed to running the floor. Also note the line progression throughout this series. The last game of the regular season these teams met and the total was 199. Dallas won 96-89, staying under by 15, so naturally an adjustment was made (to 194) for game1 of this series. And that's where the total has stayed, give or take a half point or so for the entire series and each game has gone under by an average of 8 points. So now we're getting an extra 4 points when in actuality the line should be moving the other way, but that's the power of recent results... they're blinding to the average bettor, and that's who is driving this line.
Another factor here is that since this is an elimination game, there's a greater chance for plenty of "free" points in the intentional fouling session at the end of the game. If the Mavs are down, they're going to pull out all the stops down the stretch until the final buzzer sounds.
Wednesday, 04/28 NBA: +1.37 Units (Volume: 1.50 Unit)
Milwaukee +9 / Atlanta 8:00 ET 1.50 Units
Milwaukee 91 Atlanta 87 Winner
This game seems so "easy"... kind of reminds you of those pattern questions on tests when you were a kid... you know, 1, 3, 5, _, 9... What's the missing number? Atlanta won by 10 in both game one & game two in Atlanta, then Milwaukee won 18 & 7 in their 2 home games, so now it's time for Atlanta to win by double digits at home, right...? Not so fast. This is the NBA playoffs, and things aren't always as they seem this time of the year. We feel the Hawk's inability to win thus far on the road in this series is going to cost them... maybe not the series, but it may cost them by stretching the series to 7 games, minimizing their rest time between series. By not winning in Milwaukee in either game 3 or 4, the Hawks gave the Bucks the clear cut advantage in motivation, and that's very big in the NBA playoffs. Teams tend to rise to new levels when given hope. 9 point is a big number to give a team on a roll.
Tuesday, 04/27 NBA: +1.14 Units (Volume: 1.25 Unit)
Under 193 San Antonio / Dallas 9:30 ET 1.25 Units
San Antonio 81 Dallas 103 Winner
Series Play: (-1.00) Unit Released 4/23 when Miami was down 0-2 in the series.
Miami +450 / Boston Game 3 Start 7:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Miami 1 Game Boston 4 Games Lose
Monday, 04/26 NBA: +1.14 Units (Volume: 1.25 Unit)
Orlando -4 / Charlotte 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Orlando 99 Charlotte 90 Winner
We're not going for the 'wanna win it at home" crap... This is just the first round. The Magic aren't overly concerned with losing the revenue from one game. The extra rest they'll get by wrapping things up tonight, both physically & mentally, is well worth the trade-off.
After Charlotte let game 3 slip away, we can't see them having much incentive tonight, unless they figure to go to Disney World after losing game 5. They had the Magic in the perfect spot Saturday with Howard on the bench after fouling out with 3:30 left in the 4th and the Bobcats with an 80-79 lead. Orlando outscored Charlotte 11-6 down the stretch without their big man. Too much depth and experience for Charlotte to handle. Orlando sweeps...
Sunday, 04/25 NBA: -0.86 Units (Volume: 3.25 Unit)
Under 195 Dallas / San Antonio 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Dallas 89 San Antonio 92 Winner
Under 186 Boston / Miami 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 92 Miami 101 Lose
About the only thing the Heat have left to hang their hats on is their at time tenacious defense. It's a pretty much done deal that Miami won't be advancing, but to lay down this afternoon in front of their faithful fans would be a sin. Not saying they'll avoid the sweep, but they'll go down fighting (on defense) if they do indeed lose today. Also factor into the equation the early Sunday start. Gotta figure Boston to be a bit groggy after Friday & Saturday nights in South Beach and having to be up for work this morning around 8 AM.
Saturday, 04/24 NBA: -3.25 Units (Volume: 3.25 Unit)
Atlanta +1.5 / Milwaukee 7:00 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 89 Milwaukee 107 Lose
Under 189 Atlanta / Milwaukee 1.25 Units
Atlanta 89 Milwaukee 107 Lose
Very likely Atlanta will sweep the Bucks. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, they don't have a replacement for Andrew Bogut who has been out since 4/3. Often times, as you know, we like to go against hot shooting teams like the Hawks have been lately, citing that well above average shooting usually comes right back down, but in this case we feel there's more to it. Atlanta is just too much for Milwaukee in their present condition. The Hawks will roll again tonight, even if their shot is off.
Friday, 04/23 NBA: -1.25 Units (Volume: 2.25 Unit)
Miami -4 / Boston 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Miami 98 Bosotn 100 Lose
Series Play:
Miami +450 / Boston Game 3 Start 7:00 ET 1.00 Unit
PENDING
This is a 1 Unit play on Miami to win the series (Series currently Boston 2-0).
Great value here as we fully expect the Heat to bounce right back and take game 3 at home tonight. If so, it comes down to 1 more home win to even the series thus making it a best of 3 with 2 games on the road. We liked Miami in this series before it started, but were waiting for this very situation to get this price (Miami was getting just +160 before the series started). No matter how you slice it, the Heat have to win in Boston. If they didn't get it done in the first 2 games there, the good news is there are 2 more. Of course Miami really does have to win these next 2 at home, but the team without home court is always under the gun to win their home games.
Thursday, 04/22 NBA: +1.14 Units (Volume: 1.25 Unit)
Chicago +4.5 / Cleveland 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago 108 Cleveland 106 Winner
No, the Bulls won't win this series, but they're not going to lay down either. Remember the dog fight they made last years first round series into with the Celtics taking the then defending champs to 7 games. This line is on the rise behind heavy public action on the Cavs, so you'll probably see +5 before game time. Chicago, although down 0-2, played tough in both games on the road and we see no reason for them to stop now at home. We look for this game to come down to the wire and wouldn't be surprised at all with the Bulls getting the outright win.
Wednesday, 04/21 NBA: +0.00 Units (Volume: 0.00Unit)
PASS
Tuesday, 04/20 NBA: -0.36 Units (Volume: 2.75 Unit)
Under 187.5 Milwaukee / Atlanta 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Milwaukee 86 Atlanta 96 Winner
LA Lakers -6.5 / Oklahoma City 10:30 ET 1.50 Units
LA Lakers 95 Oklahoma City 92 Lose
Monday, 04/19 NBA: -3.25 Units (Volume: 3.25 Unit)
Cleveland -10.5 / Chicago 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Cleveland 102 Chicago 112 Lose
Can't start letting the double digit lay concern us here. Yes, the Bulls hung around in game 1 and nearly covered, but if you make a play in hopes of the final landing on one of 10 numbers (Cleveland by 1 through 10), you may as well stop betting sports because there's no future in that mentality. We're also not saying that the Bulls is a bad play... IF you think they have a legitimate shot at winning on the road tonight, but we don't. So now the question for us boils down to the validity of the number, and the best way to measure that is to ask a simple question: If before the game starts the scoreboard read Chicago 11 Cleveland 0, do we think the Cavs can win the game? Yes, it's a rhetorical question. If Cleveland blows the cover in the end so be it, but this one has all the signs of a blowout as the Cavs warm up in preparation for a very deep playoff run...
Under 212.5 Utah / Denver 10:30 ET 2.00 Units
Utah 114 Denver 111 Lose
Getting some nice value here thanks to the recent over trend of this match-up. 5 of the last 6 in this series have gone over the total, but the average total in those 6 games is 207.5, 5 points less than tonight's number. Of course after game1 flew over the total (239 points scored), the line maker really has no choice but to inflate the number and that's still not deterring the public as they're playing this one over at a better than 2:1 clip. Not us... because the very thing that is causing the line to inflate we feel should actually cause the line to shrink... You see both teams in game one of this series shot lights out... Denver 57% & Utah 55%, and this is one stat that almost always straightens itself out immediately. We're looking for both teams tonight to struggle finding the hole... 53 point per quarter is a tall order if your shot is even just a bit off...
Sunday, 04/18 NBA: +1.82 Units (Volume: 4.25 Unit)
LA Lakers -7.5 / Oklahoma City 3:00 ET 2.00 Units
LA Lakers 87 Oklahoma City 79 Winner
Well, this Thunder team certainly has everyone mesmerised, don't they? They ended the regular season by notching their 50th win beating Memphis at home 114-105. That's a far cry from just a year ago when OKC was 23-59 for the season. Sure, the Thunder are one of the most improved teams in the league and can surely look forward to a very bright future, but the feeling is that they've peaked and will now descend down the slippery slope called the NBA playoffs. The Thunder even managed to finally beat the Lakers 3 weeks ago (at home) 91-75 after losing 9 straight times. So sure, you can certainly make a case for the dog here, at least on paper, but that's where it ends... These are the playoffs. This is the time of the year this Lakers team was put together for. Forget about LA losing 7 of their last 11 down the stretch... they weren't playing for anything that really mattered... they were getting ready for the playoffs by resting who needed rest and not overexerting themselves. Phil Jackson may seem goofy and nonchalant sometimes when giving between quarter interviews during games that they're losing, but make no mistake about it... Phil Jackson knows his business and he know his team, and he knows how to win NBA championships... He gets done what need to be done. Don't think for a minute that LA is going to let the Thunder have any momentum in this series, because of how this young Thunder team has come on this year. No, this afternoon's game will be a statement game by LA, and the message that will be sent is that the road to the Western Conference Championship goes through the Staples Center, and you're not winning here.
Under 187 Charlotte / Orlando 5:30 ET 1.25 Units
Charlotte 89 Orlando 98 PUSH
Series Play: +1.70 Units (Accounted for on 4/30)
San Antonio +170 / Dallas Game 1 Starts Sunday, 8:00 ET 1 Unit
Play on the Spurs to win this series
San Antonio 4 Games Dallas 2 Games Winner
Saturday, 04/17 NBA: +1.37 Units (Volume: 2.50 Unit)
Boston -4 / Miami 8:00 ET 1.50 Units
Boston 85 Miami 76 Winner
Real easy to make a case for the Heat here as they've been playing their best ball of the season this past month while the Celtics have been just the opposite having dropped 7 of their last 10 SU & ATS. But remember, things aren't always as they seem in the NBA, and the playoffs are a whole other animal and Boston holds a huge advantage in playoff experience. We look for Boston to put it all together at the right time and take game 1 of this opening round.
Series Play: PENDING
Utah +170 / Denver 1.00 Unit Game 1 Start 10:30 ET
Play on Utah to win the series.
PENDING
-END OF REGULAR SEASON
Wednesday, 04/14 NBA: +2.39 Units (Volume: 5.25 Unit)
Under 219.5 NY Knicks / Toronto 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
NY Knicks 113 Toronto 131 Lose
Under 190.5 NJ Nets / Miami 8:00 ET 1.00 Unit
New Jersey 86 Miami 94 Winner
Under 195 Cleveland / Atlanta 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Cleveland 83 Atlanta 99 Winner
Under 217 Phoenix / Utah 10:30 ET 1.75 Units
Phoenix 100 Utah 86 Winner
Tuesday, 04/13 NBA: -+0.00 Units (Volume: 0.00 Unit)
PASS
Monday, 04/12 NBA: -1.13 Units (Volume: 4.00 Unit)
Under 192.5 Miami / Philadelphia 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Miami 107 Philadelphia 105 Lose
Under 210 Orlando / Indiana 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Orlando 118 Indiana 98 Lose
Over 205 Minnesota / San Antonio 8:30 ET 1.50 Units
San Antonio 133 Minnesota 111 Winner
Sunday, 04/11 NBA: -0.13 Units (Volume: 3.00 Unit)
Under 198 Orlando / Cleveland 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Orlando 98 Cleveland 92 Winner
Toronto +2.5 / Chicago 6:00 ET 1.50 Units
Toronto 88 Chicago 104 Lose
All the pressure is on the Bulls here. On the surface the situation looks like a one game playoff between 2 "dead even" teams for the last seed in the east, but there's much more to it. First of all, the Raptors own the tie breaker having already beaten the Bulls twice this season, so a loss to Chicago here means Toronto can still make the playoffs by winning their last 2 games (a not so difficult task: @ Detroit and home vs the Knicks) while the Bulls drop at least 1 of their remaining 2 (home vs Boston and @ Charlotte). This would give these teams identical records of 40-42 and as mentioned the tie breaker goes to Toronto. But with a Bulls loss today, Chicago would have to win their 2 remaining games while Toronto loses theirs... very tough spot to be in. So we'll side with the home team here who are the much more relaxed team knowing this isn't their only way into the post season. Also, we're getting an 8 point adjustment in the line (Toronto was -5.5 in their last game in this building against the Bulls)... absurd... and the only reason is the absence of Chris Bosh. No one player in the NBA is worth an 8 point adjustment. Sure, the Bulls are healthy now but playing on the road in a building you've won only once in the past 5 times, against a team you've lost to 8 of the last 10 times, the most recent coming at home 78-110 on 12/05, and knowing that this is pretty much your only shot at making the post season, it'll be too much pressure for these young Bulls... AND they have to lay 2.5 points on the road... we also now have the luxury of covering a close game.
Saturday 04/10 NBA: +0.46 Units (Volume 5.75 Units)
NJ Nets +11 / Indiana 7:00 ET 1.00 Unit
NJ Nets 102 Indiana 115 Lose
Remember, less than 2 weeks ago there was plenty of talk as to the Nets not making the 10 win mark for the season which would have given them the record for the worst record in NBA history, but on 3/29 New Jersey upset the Spurs at home 90-84 putting that ordeal to rest. Since that win the Nets have notched 2 more very impressive wins beating the Hornets 115-87 and most recent last night pulling out the OT win against the Bulls 127-116. Also factored in is the fact that the Pacers are playing well above average of late winning their last 3 games by an average of 14 ppg while shooting better than 50% from the field combined, including last night's road win in Cleveland 116-113.
It always takes the line maker time to adjust to an improving team. Not saying Jersey are all of a sudden contenders, but on the flip side we can't justify a 31-48 team laying double digits to anybody... home or not. It's obvious that these young Nets have not packed it in and are clearly playing for some momentum to carry with them to next season, so you can be sure they'll be fighting all the way here. Look for a natural letdown here by the Pacers after winning in Cleveland, even though the Cavs weren't really playing as they've locked up their playoff positioning.
Under 188 Detroit / Charlotte 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Detroit 95 Charlotte 99 Lose
Look for Larry Brown to force his team to sharpen up on defense tonight as the playoffs get close. The Bobcats have given up an average of 99 ppg in their last 4, over 5 points more than their season average. Also, the Pistons will most likely still be in shock having won their 3rd straight game last night in Miami 106-99 on 50% shooting... can't see them coming anywhere close to repeating here.
Boston +1.5 / Milwaukee 8:30 ET 1.25 Units
Boston 105 Milwaukee 90 Winner
Over 188.5 Boston / Milwaukee 2.00 Units
Boston 105 Milwaukee 90 Winner
Grueling schedule this week as both Boston & Atlanta are playing their 4th game in 5 nights and both have travelled after each of those games, so add 4 plane trips in the last 5 days to each teams agendas since Tuesday and you have 2 very tired teams. It takes much more energy to play good defense as opposed to playing a more open game, so we feel both clubs will be content in swapping baskets which should allow for this game to get over he total easily, and we're giving Boston the edge in the game as they have the more dangerous offense behind the shooting of Ray Allen & Rajon Rondo.
Friday 04/09 NBA: -2.25 Units (Volume 2.25 Units)
Atlanta -10.5 / Toronto 7:30 ET 1.00 Unit
Atlanta 107 Toronto 101 Lose
Yes, Toronto is battling with the Bulls for the last playoff spot in the East, but it looks as if Chicago is going to take it. The Raptors are now without Chris Bosh for at least a couple of weeks with a broken face after taking an elbow from Cleveland's Antawn Jamison in Tuesday's game. Toronto was limping into the playoffs even with Bosh, as they have one of the worst defenses, so now without him down the stretch when he's really needed seals their fate. We look for a blowout tonight in Atlanta...
Miami -11.5 / Detroit 7:30 ET 1.25 Units
Miami 99 Detroit 106 Lose
Detroit has to be looking to just end this season and get on with their vacation plans. Multiple injuries are hitting the Pistons and they really have nobody to step up. Meanwhile, the Heat are peaking at the right time having won 9 straight (6-2-1 ATS) going into tonight's game at home. We look for another blowout here as Miami gets ready for the playoffs while putting on a show for the Friday night South Beach crowd.
Thursday 04/09 NBA: 0 (Volume 0 Units)
PASS
Wednesday 04/07 NBA: +4.33 Units (Volume 4.75 Units)
Under 219 NY Knicks / Indiana 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
NY Knicks 105 Indiana 113 Winner
Over 192 Washington / Orlando 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Washington 94 Orlando 121 Winner
Over 209 San Antonio Phoenix 10:30 ET 2.00 Units
San Antonio 101 Phoenix 112 Winner
Tuesday 04/06 NBA: -0.49 Units (Volume 5.75 Units)
Over 197 Detroit / Philadelphia 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Detroit 124 Philadelphia 103 Winner
Washington +3 / Golden State 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Washington 112 Golden State 94 Winner
Now wait just a second... Golden State (6 road wins all season) are laying points on the road? This coming after a very emotional win in Toronto on Sunday which tied Nellie for most wins by an NBA coach...
Washington, despite playing for nothing at this point, has a very loyal fan base and will be scrapping at every chance to win every winnable game at home down the stretch. In fact, the Wizards have covered 3 of their last 4 and really haven't gotten blown out at all lately... they've been putting forth the effort. Look for the home team to give their loyal fans something to cheer about tonight against an emotionally drained team coming off a very big franchise win for their leader...
Under 212 Oklahoma City / Utah 9:00 ET 1.75 Units
Oklahoma City 139 Utah 140 Lose
Sacramento +7 / San Antonio 10:00 ET 1.25 Units
Sacramento 86 San Antonio 95 Lose
The Spurs are coming off of 3 big wins: 119-102 vs Houston(3/31), 112-100 vs Orlando (4/02), and most recently 100-81 @ the Lakers on national TV on Sunday. With dates at Phoenix, home vs Memphis & at Denver next (3 games in 4 nights), we can't see San Antonio putting forth much of an effort here. Tony Parker will most likely be making his return tonight, so the Spurs will be more interested in getting him worked back into the rotation. Good spot here for the Kings, whose home record is very respectable (17-20), to pull the upset.
Sunday 04/04 NBA: +1.69 Units (Volume 5.00 Units)
Boston -1.5 / Cleveland 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 117 Cleveland 113 Winner
Linemaker's giving the Cavs way too much respect here. Sure they're a great team and own the best record in basketball (60-16), but Boston is no slouch. Despite losing three straight (SU) and 5 of their last 6 (ATS), the Celtics are one of the elite teams in the league with a healthy, veteran roster... and they're laying just -1.5 at home (was -1 earlier but Cleveland's Varejao is now listed as out). Not saying it's a bad number to accomplish what a number is supposed to accomplish, but because of the big picture we can play a quality team at close to pick-em in a game they're sure to be zoned in on.
As mentioned, this is a veteran Celtic team playing at home on national TV looking to beat Cleveland for just the second time in over a year. The Cavs have won the 3 of last 4 meetings by an average of 20 ppg but we're looking for a different outcome today as Boston rises to another level in the national spotlight and throws the kitchen sink at Cleveland on the defensive end (we won't play the under though as the intentional fouling session at the end of the game may get crazy in a game like this).
An interesting note on the Cavs is that 3 of their 16 losses this season came at the hands of one of the best defensive teams in the game: Larry Brown's Charlotte Bobcats, and on any given day this veteran Celtic team can defend with the best of them and that is what will get them the win this afternoon.
LA Lakers -4.5 / San Antonio 3:30 ET 1.50 Units
LA Lakers 81 San Antonio 100 Lose
LA got past their first game home after being on the road for 10 days (it's always tough getting re-acclimated to your home surroundings after being away for so long and often times this is a temporary distraction for players). But LA handled the Jazz with ease on Friday 106-92 (we won with Under 203.5 in that game). Now that they got past that hurdle, we look for LA to finish the regular season strong, especially against a team they very well be meeting in the playoffs soon. With the Lakers next game on until Thursday in Denver (the Late TNT game... another nationally televised game), we look for them to hold nothing back here against the aging Spurs who are playing their 5th game in 8 days 93rd on the road). You'll recall we were on San Antonio Friday over Orlando (112-100 Winner), but that was in a spot catching the Magic on the tail end of a Texas back to back having played in Dallas the previous night. we also mentioned Friday how we feel this Spurs team, despite their age, seem to be peaking at the right time and may very well make it deep into the playoffs, but there are always spots in a teams schedule, based on recent events, that warrant a temporary deviation from our overall assessment of a team and this is one of them for the Spurs. In their last 2 games, SA shot a combined 54% from the field, a stat that we're certain will come down today.
Minnesota +13 / Oklahoma City 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Minnesota 108 Oklahoma City 116 Winner
Big letdown spot for this young Thunder team as they just finished a 3-0 (SU & ATS) road sweep of Philly, Boston & the Mavs. Their win in Dallas last night clinched a playoff spot for OKC, and with a one day trip to Utah on deck on Tuesday befoe coming home to play Denver & Phoenix Wednesday & Friday, can't see the Thunder being too interested in the T'Wolves tonight in between holiday festivities... not a good spot to lay -13 especially since Minnesota keeps playing hard despite having won just 15 games this season.
Saturday 04/03 NBA: -5.86 Units (Volume 8.25 Units)
Philadelphia +4.5 / Toronto 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Philadelphia 123 Toronto 128 Lose
Under 205 Toronto / Philadelphia 1.00 Unit
Toronto 128 Philadelphia 123 Lose
Parlay: Philadelphia (ML) +170 & Under 205 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.12 Units
Philadelphia 123 Toronto 128 Lose
Total risk of 3 Units with a possible upside of +4.40 Units with plays that all are dependent on each other thus creating some nice value, and with at least a split of Philly & Under, our risk is reduced to just 1.09 Units.
Toronto is battling to hang on to the last playoff spot in the East as Chicago is right on their tails just 2 games back with 7 games to play, so the pressure is clearly on the Raptors especially since Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 after losing 10 straight.
Heading into this afternoon's game in Philly, Toronto is coming off of back to back wins: on the road Monday (103-101) over Charlotte as 9 point dogs and then Wednesday at home (114-92) over the Clippers. In Wednesday's game, Toronto shot a staggering 61% from the field in that 22 point blowout. As is often the case following such impressive wins by a mediocre team, we expect Toronto to have an off day shooting and very likely this is a spot where they come back down to earth and lose outright on the road.
Over 201.5 New Orleans / New Jersey 7:30 ET 1.25 Units
New Orleans 87 New Jersey 115 Winner
Over 191 Miami / Minnesota 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Miami 97 Minnesota 84 Lose
Over 185.5 Charlotte / Chicago 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Charlotte 88 Chicago 96 Lose
Denver -14 / LA Clippers 9:00 ET 1.50 Units
Denver 98 LA Clippers 90 Lose
Friday 04/02 NBA: +5.92 Units (Volume 6.50 Units)
Under 181.5 Milwaukee / Charlotte 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Milwaukee 86 Charlotte 87 Winner
Under 205.5 New Orleans / Memphis 8:00 ET 1.75 Units
New Orleans 96 Memphis 107 Winner
San Antonio -3 / Orlando 8:30 ET 1.75 Units
San Antonio 112 Orlando 100 Winner
These teams met just over 2 weeks ago (3/17) in Florida with the Magic blowing out the Spurs (110-84). Tonight, not only has the venue flip flopped, but so have the surrounding factors. That loss for San Antonio remember came on the back end of a Florida back to back after disposing o the Heat 88-76 the night before. [We picked up 2 nice "W"'s in those games as we were on the Under (187) in the SA/Miami game (23 point cover) for 1.25 units and the next night we were on Orlando -7 / SA (19 point cover) for a 2 Unit Top Rated winner. In that game we cited the big scheduling disadvantage the Spurs were in. That was at the beginning of our recent big run in the NBA that has netted us a total of over +17 units over the past 3+ weeks (click here for complete game by game details).]
Tonight it's the Magic with the big scheduling disadvantage and they have a revenge minded, rested Spurs team playing at home to deal with. Orlando is playing the tail end of a Texas back to back tonight after beating the Mavs in Dallas last night 97-82. We lost a 2 unit play on that game as we were on the Over (197). Our thinking was correct as we based our play on the fact that Dallas would be out of gas so it would be difficult keeping Orlando's offense down, but we thought the Mavs would give it their all in "catch-up" mode late in the game if needed. The Magic did handle Dallas with ease but the total just didn't quite get there (see link above for write-up).
So with the Spurs resting at home yesterday while Orlando played in Dallas, we look for San Antonio to cool off the red hot Magic and notch their first win over Orlando in over 2 years.
Under 203.5 Utah / LA Lakers 10:30 ET 1.50 Units
Utah 92 LA Lakers 106 Winner
This is the first game home for the Lakers after finishing a long, sub par southern road trip (2-3 SU & ATS). LA has been away from home for 10 days (since 3/23), and it's always tough for a team the first game back after being away from home for so long. Remember, NBA players are human beings also with lives and families and business dealings of which all need their attention upon getting back and can sometimes be overwhelming to these young athletes thus taking some of their focus away from the game. Couple this with the Jazz coming off of 3 straight wins in which they shot above 50% in all 3 (54% average), and as we've stated before, this is a stat that always tends to level right off. So we're looking for poor shooting tonight in LA from both teams, but for different reasons.
Thursday 04/01 NBA: -3.00 Units (Volume 3.00 Units)
Over 197 Orlando / Dallas 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Orlando 97 Dallas 82 Lose
It takes much more energy to play defense in the NBA as opposed to offense, and Dallas can't have much left in the tank given their recent schedule... this is the Mavs 5th game in 8 days, 4 of the 5 on the road and it was far from an easy schedule. Dallas played at Portland last Tuesday (3/25) losing 89-101, then they travelled to Golden State and not only did they blow out the Warriors, they held them to just 90 points on 33% shooting.... no easy task containing that circus act. Next it was a stop at home to face Denver and yet another Dallas blowout 109-93 holding the Nuggets to 41% shooting. After just a day of rest the Mavs were off to Memphis last night and beat the Grizzlies in overtime 106-102.
Tonight Dallas faces an Orlando team very hungry for revenge as Dallas has beaten the Magic in their last 2 meetings... both in Orlando (2/19/2010 Orlando 85 Dallas 95 & 2/02/2009 Orlando 95 Dallas 105). Orlando was 7 point favorites in both of those losses, but more important the total of those games were 204 last month and 207.5 last year. We're getting 7 more points than this same game 5 weeks ago which by itself is huge value, but add to the mix a very tired Dallas team playing a very rested, very revenge minded Magic team in Dallas. Look for Orlando to run on the weary legs of Dallas thus exploiting the Mavs weakness tonight and turning this game into a track meet. Normally we'd make a case to play Orlando here in this spot, but Dallas has showed recently their ability to overcome such adversity and pull out a win, so we'll just stick with the over as a last Mavs push at the end may be what puts the game over...
Parlay: Denver (ML) -220 / Portland & Under 199 Risk 1.00 Unit to win 1.77 Units
Denver 109 Portland 92 Lose
Realize that Denver hasn't covered a game since 3/13, going 3-6 SU & 0-8-1 ATS. Will Denver ever cover another game? Of course they will, but don't fall into the "they're due" trap. They're not due for anything but to lose another one to the number. We're not saying that Denver can't or won't cover tonight, they may very well blow the Blazers out, but to lay points here, especially a 5 spot, is crazy. We stand to make the same here as a 2 Unit play on the Under would pay, but just half the risk.
Portland on the other hand is coming off 4 straight wins (4-0 ATS). During that stretch, the Blazers averaged shooting 51%... not easy to do considering the competition: Dallas, New Orleans, Oklahoma City & the Knicks (well, 3 out of 4 quality teams anyway). In their 118-90 thrashing of the Knicks last night, the Blazers clinched a playoff berth. So with the combination of above average shooting by Portland (which should start leveling off, supporting the Under), and the natural sense of "letdown" after their 4h straight win (SU & ATS) which punched their ticket to the postseason (supporting a Portland SU loss here especially having to play the tail end of a back to back in the thin air of Denver), and a Denver team which really must win as many games as possible down the stretch to secure their playoff spot within the top 4 seeds in the west, we look for a super focused Nuggets team playing at home and looking to head into the playoffs on a winning note...
One more thing to consider: Denver has been struggling scoring points of late (failing to break 100 and going under in 7 of their last 9). It's normal for quality teams struggling on offense to break out of their scoring doldrums by cranking up the defense, which we expect tonight...
Wednesday 03/31 NBA: -0.56 Units (Volume 7.25 Units)
Under 194.5 LA Lakers / Atlanta 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
LA Lakers 92 Atlanta 109 Lose
Detroit +7 / Miami 7:30 ET 2.00 Units
Detroit 81 Miami 98 Lose
Parlay: Detroit (ML) +240 & Under 187.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.75 Units
Detroit 81 Miami 98 Lose
It's extremely tough in the NBA to hold teams to the low 70's, especially 3 times in the last 4 games like Miami did and for that reason we were on the Heat Overs a couple of times last week and lost both as the Heat just kept defending.
With tonight's game, beside not expecting Miami's defensive intensity to continue, we also expect their shooting to cool off. Miami has shot better than 50% in each of their last 4 games... so for this reason we really can't back the Over, but we feel Detroit, who has put 100+ on the board in their last 2 games and 4 of their last 6, will continue to dictate tempo. A Piston outright win is very likely tonight with Miami held to below 90, making this parlay a nice piece of value at 5.5:1 (2.75 Units for our half Unit risked). So we stand to make +4.57 Units overall and are guaranteed a +1.32 Unit profit with a Piston +7 Cover.
Utah -13 / Golden State 10:00 ET 2.00 Units
Utah 128 Golden State 104 Winner
Under 232.5 GS / Utah 1.50 Units
Golden State 104 Utah 128 Winner
The Warriors got a rare road win at the Clippers Sunday night (121-103) on 53% shooting. Tonight will be a tough challenge against a solid Jazz team, winners of 7 of their last 9 (6-3 ATS), and surely looking to get playoff ready on defense. Look for Utah to hold GS below 100 just as they did back on 2/19 (100-89 in GS). In that game the total was 221.5... 11 points less than tonight. The reason for the adjustment is clearly a case of recent performance by this Warriors team, but as is usually the case, what gos up must come down, and as stated, Utah will be looking to sharpen up on defense with the Lakers on deck (Friday night in LA) and the playoffs right around the corner.
Tuesday 03/30 NBA: -0.11 Units (Volume 2.50 Units)
Under 215 Phoenix / Chicago 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Phoenix 111 Chicago 105 Lose
Under 195.5 Washington / Houston 8:30 ET 1.25 Units
Washington 94 Houston 98 Winner
Monday 03/29 NBA: -2.00 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Over 191 San Antonio / NJ Nets 7:30 ET 2.00 Units
San Antonio 84 NJ Nets 90 Lose
After last night's rout of the Celtics in a game that the Spurs held Boston to just 73 points on 37% shooting, we can't see San Antonio wasting any precious energy on the hapless Nets. The only thing a bad team like New Jersey has to play for at this juncture of the season is to see how many points they can hang on an NBA title contender. Look for an extremely loose game tonight as the Spurs have bigger fish to fry later in the week (Houston, Orlando & the Lakers Wednesday, Friday & Sunday).
Sunday 03/28 NBA: +0.28 Units (Volume 4.50 Units)
Over 195 Toronto / Miami 6:00 ET 2.00 Units
Toronto 94 Miami 97 Lose
San Antonio +3 / Boston 8:00 ET 1.50 Units
San Antonio 94 Boston 73 Winner
The Spurs, as great teams do, are peaking at the right time. Although they're just 3-3 SU & ATS in their last 6, realize that San Antonio, before their last 2 games at home vs the Lakers & Cavs, haven't played back to back home games in ALL of February & March... That means that they've packed their bags and gotten on a plane to travel to a new venue for 24 straight games. And during that time, they've been dealing with many injuries but worked through them going 15-9 SU & 13-11 ATS during that stretch where many lesser teams would have caved.
Tonight's game in Boston is very important to San Antonio, as it will give them a much needed emotional boost to be able to win 2 of their last 3 games against the league's elite (83-92 L: LA Lakers 3/24 & 102-97 W: Cleveland 3/26).... and with Tony Parker's return right around the corner (out since 3/7 with a broken hand), at full strength this can be a very dangerous Spurs team heading into the playoffs with a full head of steam...
Under 227.5 Golden State / LA Clippers 9:30 ET 1.00 Unit
Golden State 121 LA Clippers 103 Winner
Saturday 03/27 NBA: +2.51 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)
Over 194 Portland / New Orleans 8:00 ET 1.50 Units
Portland 112 New Orleans 101 Winner
Chicago -9 / NJ Nets 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago 106 NJ Nets 83 Winner
Friday 03/26 NBA: -0.02 Units (Volume 5.75 Units)
Over 211.5 Utah/ Indiana 7:00 ET 1.75 Units
Utah 106 Indiana 122 Winner
Toronto +5.5 / Denver 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Toronto 96 Denver 97 Winner
Tough stretch for Denver as they're not responding well to their 5 games in 7 nights eastern road swing. This is the 3rd leg of the journey having lost the first two (104-109 @ NY Knicks Tuesday and 99-113 @ Boston Wednesday), and it doesn't help the Nuggets chances having had the night off last night in Toronto (one of the most "exciting" nightlifes of all NBA cities) and having to look forward to trips to Orlando Sunday and Dallas Monday. Can't see laying points on the road to a quality home team with a team that's lost 4 of their last 6 SU (0-6 ATS).
Under 195 Atlanta / Philadelphia 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 98 Philadelphia 105 Lose
Milwaukee -2.5 / Miami 8:30 ET 1.50 Units
Milwaukee 74 Miami 87 Lose
Second of a road back-to-back for the Heat having played in Chicago last night. Miami held the Bulls to just 74 points in a 29 point road rout. It's very difficult to hold a team to the low 70's, and this is the 2nd time the Heat have done so in their last 3 games (77-71 vs Charlotte 3/20). Look for Miami to be a bit spent on defense here and for Milwaukee to take full advantage, especially considering the Bucks will be super focused tonight with the absence of center Andrew Bogut with a back injury. Often times teams come together when missing a key player and put forth a better effort than had they been at full strength, and the line has moved 2 points from Mil -4.5.
Thursday 03/25 NBA: -2.00 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)
Over 191.5 Miami / Chicago 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Miami 103 Chicago 74 Lose