2009 MLB Results
Click here for full season results
Week: 8/24 - 8/30
-19.06 Units (Volume: 37.25 Units)
Sunday 8/30: -3.11 Units (Volume: 5.50 Units)
San Diego (Latos) +130 / Florida (West) & Under 9 Runs (-110) 1:10 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to in 1.70 Units
San Diego 4 Florida 6 Lose
Like we said Tuesday when we went AGAINST Matt Latos, he's been baseball's version of Jeckyll & Hyde where he either pitches lights out or he gets shelled (he pitched a gem beating us 2-1 as a +25 dog). It's worth a small half unit investment here at this price (3.4:1) because if he's on, this is a very winnable parlay... not to mention Florida has lost 8 of their last 12 while the Padres have won 4 of 5.
Washington - St. Louis 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Washington (Mock) +280 / St. Louis (Wainwright) 2:15 ET 0.5/Unit
Washington 1 St. Louis 2 Lose
Parlay: Washington +280 & Under 8 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 3.20 Units
Washington 1 St. Louis 2 Lose
Another great price as we stand to make 4.60 Units for our 1 Unit risk. Garrett Mock has some very good stuff. Although his ERA is a bit high don't let that fool you because he can take control of a game. In his last 4 starts, Mock has 27 K's in 22 2/3 innings while walking 11. We can see a pitcher's duel here and will get paid at the rate of nearly 5:1 if we come out on top.
Over 7.5 Runs (-110) Colorado (Hammel) / San Francisco (Cain) 4:05 ET 1.25 Units
Colorado 5 San Francisco 9 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Texas (Millwood) / Minnesota (Baker) 2:10 ET 1.5 Units
Texas 3 Minnestoa 5 Lose
Atlanta (Jurrjens) +116 / Philadelphia (Blanton) 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 2 Philadelphia 3 Lose
The Phils are showing the signs of a team at the tail end of a great run. The earlier you anticipate this happening, the more value there will be as the line maker is always slow to adjust. Philly has now lost 3 of their last 5 including losing their last series (1 game to 2) at Pittsburgh and their new ace Cliff Lee getting pummeled last night by these Braves (we read the game right as we were on the Braves along with a parlay with the under but Atlanta hit Lee TOO hard winning 9-1 so we only netted a small profit). But like we said, we feel Philly will endure a period of sub .500 ball for a week or two after winning 11 of 13 before their last 2 series.
Tonight Jair Jurrjens gets the start for the Braves coming off a real tough 1 run loss (1-2) in his last outing (2-3 vs SD on the 25th). In that game, Jurrjens gave up only 5 hits & 1 run in 7 2/3 innings while striking out 7. Many times when a quality pitcher is off a performance like that where they didn't get the win, in their next outing they're super focused as they have the "what's it going to take to win" mentality. Jurrjens has been solid all season as he's 10-8 with a 2.91 ERA over 148 innings. We expect him to shine once again in a very important game for Atlanta as they trail these Phils in the east by 7 (6 with a win) with 32 left to play... not an insurmountable deficit to overcome but these head on match-ups are key.
Saturday 8/29: -2.04 Units (Volume: 5.25 Units)
Atlanta - Philadelphia 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Atlanta (Lowe) +1.5 Runs (-140) / Philadelphia (Lee) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 9 Philadelphia 1 Winner
Parlay: Atlanta (Lowe) +170 / Philadelphia (Lee) & Under 8.5 Runs Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.98 Units
Atlanta 9 Philadelphia 1 Lose
Like we said right after the trade deadline, Cliff Lee would prove to have the biggest impact on his new team. Lee's now 5-0 with the Phillies with an ERA & WHIP of less than 1 each!!! He's been virtually un-hittable... but even the best have off days and what better spot can we ask for for that to happen. Atlanta's Derek Lowe has been solid all year with a 12-8 record. Although his ERA is a bit high (4.48), Lowe's only given up more than 3 ER's in 6 of his 27 outings and has held teams to 2 or less ER's in more than half his appearances (14 of 27). We're not expecting the Braves to get much off of Cliff Lee but we are expecting Derek Lowe to keep them in the game. We'll even show a small profit (+0.21/Unit) with a 1 run Atlanta loss, but we stand to make +2.69 Units for our 1.5 Unit risk if all works out.
Under 9 Runs (-110) San Diego (Leblanc) / Florida (Nolasco) 6:10 ET 1 Unit
San Diego 7 Florida 4 Lose
Over 8 Runs (-120) Colorado (Marquis) / San Francico (Zito) 9:05 ET 1.5 Units
Colorado 3 San Francisco 5 PUSH
Minnesota (Pavano) Even / Texas (Feldman) 7:10 ET 1.25 Units
Minnesota 0 Texas 3 Lose
Friday 8/28: -2.59 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
Washington (Lannan) +165 / St. Louis (Smoltz) 8:15 ET 1 Unit
Washington 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
Over 9 Runs (+105) Washington / St. Louis 1 Unit
Washington 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
We're sticking with our position on John Smoltz that he's finished and will never be close to his old self. Having one good outing in his debut with the Cards (8/23 at SD: 5 innings, 3 hits, 0 walks & 9 K's) does not erase the woes he had in Boston since his return 2 months ago ( 8 starts, 40 innings pitched, 59 hits, 9 walks, 33 K's & 37 earned runs. A 1.70 WHIP to go along with an 8.33 ERA!) We'll back the Nat's in this one along with the Over for 2 straight plays so as long as Washington scores 4, we're only at risk for 1 Unit total and with 5 Washington runs, we're guaranteed a profit!
Chicago WS (Buehrle) +1.5 Runs (-115) / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 2 NY Yankees 5 Lose
Parlay: Chicago WS (ML) +195 & Under 9 Runs (-125) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.15 Units
Chicago WS 2 NY Yankees 5 Lose
Isn't it amazing what pitching a perfect game can do to a pitcher? It's pretty common to have a letdown after such a feat, but in the case of Mark Buehrle, the letdown has lasted over 6 weeks!! Since his masterpiece on 7/23 vs the Rays, Buehrle is 0-4 with 2 ND's (37 2/3 inn., 54 his, 7 walks & 26 ER's... that's a 2.34 HIP & 6.21 ERA) and the White Sox are 1-5 in those games.... WOW! And as for the Yanks, CC Sabathia gets the start. You'll recall the rough start CC had this year as the Yanks were 11-11 in his first 22 starts which of course was a big money burner with the price that goes along with backing Sabathia but recently, he's really turned it on. NY has won Sabathia's last 6 starts.
Tonight we're looking for both of these lopsided situations to start to straighten out. This pitching match up is a rematch of August 2nd at Chicago where the Yanks won 8-5... it was the 2nd game after Buehrle's perfect game and the start of his terrible tailspin so it's certain to stand out in his head. We're fully expecting another solid performance from Sabathia tonight, but we're also expecting a super focused Mark Buehrle to get back to his early season form. We stand to make 3.02 Units for our 1.5 Unit risk and we can still show a profit with a 1 run WS loss.
Over 9 Runs (-110) Toronto (Richmond) / Boston (Beckett) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 5 Boston 6 Winner
Thursday 8/27: -2.55 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
NY Mets - Florida 3 Plays Total Risk 2.75 Units
NY Mets (Redding) +1.5 Runs (-105) / Florida (Sanchez) 1:10 ET 1 Unit
NY Mets 10 Florida 3 Winner
Under 9 Runs (-120) NY Mets (Redding) / Florida (Sanchez) 1.25 Units
NY Mets 10 Florida 3 Lose
Parlay: NY Mets +200 / Florida & Under 9 Runs (-120) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.25 Units
NY Mets 10 Florida 3 Lose
We're risking a total of 2.75 Units here with an upside of +4.24 Units. The Under is our main play. Winning it reduces our risk to less than half a unit (0.46/Unit). And even with the Mets losing a low scoring 1 run game we'll make +1.49 Units. As stated before, we feel the long string of Florida hot hitting is going to do a complete 180.
Oakland - LAA 2 Plays Total Risk 1.75 Units
Over 9.5 Runs (-115) Oakland (Cahill) / LA Angels (Santana) 10:25 ET 1.25 Units
Oakland 2 LA Angels 0 Lose
Parlay: Oakland (Cahill) +180 & Over 9.5 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.12 Units
Oakland 2 LA Angels 0 Lose
Wednesday 8/26: -7.00 Units (Volume: 7.00 Units)
Parlay: Atlanta (Kawakami) -225 / San Diego (Stauffer) 7:10 ET & Florida (Johnson) -250 / NY Mets (Pelfrey) 7:10 ET Risk 2 Units to win 2.04 Units
Atlanta 5 San Diego 12 Lose | Florida 5 NY Mets 3 Winner: Parlay Lose
Once again, we're limiting our exposure on 2 big favorites which, despite their huge prices, we feel have value. A 2 Unit risk on each straight would only yield a +1.68 Unit profit winning both, and a split would lose -1.12 U or -1.20 U. This way we're on the hook for half (2 Units) and stand to make more.
Washington (Hernandez) +250 / Chicago Cubs (Harden) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Washington 2 Chicago 9 Lose
Livan Hernandez makes his debut as a Washington National tonight. We're playing against the Cubs here as this is a struggling club right now having lost 6 of their last 8 and slipping to 9 games back of the Cards in the NL Central. Rich Harden gets the start for the Cubs and is coming off of a 7 inning, 1 hit & 3 walk performance in his last outing on the 19th at SD, but that's still not enough to justify this size lay with a team going bad!
Over 7.5 Runs (-120) Houston (Oswalt) / St. Louis (Piniero) 8:15 ET 1.5 Units
Houston 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
Over 10.5 Runs (-110) LA Dodgers (Wolf) / Colorado (Fogg) 8:40 ET 1.25 Units
LA Dodgers 6 Colorado 1 Lose
Tampa Bay (Kazmir) -119 / Toronto (Rzepczynsky) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Tampa bay 2 Toronto 3 Lose
Tuesday 8/25: -2.42 Units (Volume: 5.00 Units)
Atlanta (Jurrijens) -1.5 Runs (-115) / San Diego (Latos) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 1 San Diego 2 Lose
Parlay: Atlanta (ML) -250 & Over 8 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.81/Unit
Atlanta 1 San Diego 2 Lose
We're risking a total of 1.5 Units here with an upside of 1.68 Units, a far cry from the 0.6/Unit that a 1.5 Unit ML only play would yield. This is just too big of a price to lay with Atlanta tonight going against rookie Matt Latos. Latos has gotten shelled in his last 2 outings (a total of 7 2/3 innings pitched: 15 hits, 7 walks & 12 ER's), but before that, since his debut on 7/19), he's put forth some very impressive outings. On 7/29 Latos pitched 7 innings at Cincinnati allowing just 1 hit, 1 walk & 1 run as he cruised to a 7-1 win and he's also held these Braves down in his next start on 8/3 going 7 innings again allowing 6 hits, 2 walks & 2 runs winning 4-2. Looking at the big picture, in his first 5 starts (before his 2 most recent beatings), Latos pitched a combined 29 2/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.94 and an ERA of 2.42 (8 ER's in 29.66 innings!) So it's kind of a tale of 2 pitchers. We're just banking on Latos' woes continuing and if we're wrong we'll most likely lose, but we're setting ourselves up to get paid at a premium if we're right, nearly triple that of a ML only play!
LA Dodgers (Kershaw) -110 / Colorado (Hammel) 8:40 ET 1.5 Units
LA Dodgers 4 Colorado 5 Lose
Clayton Kershaw hasn't won a game in over 5 weeks. In fact, LA has lost each of his last 6 starts but in all fairness, you can't blame Kershaw as he's been brilliant over his last 6 pitching 33 innings and allowing just 11 ER's (3.00 ERA which is right at his season mark of 2.96). Problem has been lack of run support LA has scored just 14 runs in those 6 games (2.33 average per game). 4 of those 6 were 1 run losses... enough to drive a starter mad but we believe Kershaw will start reaping what he's been sowing. He has continued to put forth great efforts despite the bad breaks he's endured... a tell tale sign of a winner. Many would let this bad run get into their head, but Kershaw has hung in there and we believe he'll be rewarded.
Under 9.5 Runs (-105) Texas (Millwood) / NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Texas 10 NY Yankees 9 Lose
Detroit (Washburn) +158 / LA Angels (Lackey) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 5 LA Angels 3 Winner
OK, we'll bite! Detroit sends their newest pitching acquisition to the mound tonight in LA. Jarrod Washburn, since coming over from Seattle, is 0-1 with 3 ND's (Detroit has won all 3 ND's), but his numbers in those 4 game are a bit shaky which we'll attribute to new team jitters. (25.1 innings pitched, 24 hits, 6 walks & 17 ER's: that's a 1.20 WHIP & 6.12 ERA compared to his full season numbers of 1.09 WHIP & 3.18 ERA). We can't see these woes going much further, but it's these poor recent numbers driving this price (LAA -168). We feel this game should be no more than LAA -135 so enough of an overlay exists making this a very live dog.
Also note that John Lackey is coming off of a disastrous start of his own on the 20th in Cleveland where he gave up 6 ER's in 5 1/3 innings, and the Angels as a team have now lost 4 of their last 5 (this coming after winning 8 of their previous 9).
Monday 8/24: +0.65/Unit (Volume: 4.50 Units)
Over 9.5 Runs (Even) San Francisco (Zito) / Colorado (Marquis) 8:40 ET 1.5 Units
San Francisco 4 Colorado 6 Winner
Under 7.5 Runs (-105) Tampa Bay (Niemann) / Toronto (Halladay) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Tampa bay 12 Toronto 7 Lose
Baltimore - Minnesota 2 Plays Tota Risk 1 Unit
Baltimore (Tillman) +185 / Minnesota (Baker) 8:10 ET 0.5/Unit
Baltimore 1 Minnesota 2 Lose
Parlay: Baltimore +185 & Over 9 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.28 Units
Baltimore 1 Minnesota 2 Lose
Nice price here as we stand to make 3.20 Units for our 1 Unit risk. Although his overall numbers are decent, Scott Baker has been erratic throughout the season. He's given up at least 4 ER's in 11 of his 24 starts this year including twice in his last 3 outings. Granted he's also thrown some gems recently, but we can't justify this huge price (and neither can the sharps as this price is "down" to -205 from the opening of -235 despite two thirds of the action being on the Twins!) Baltimore's Chris Tillman hasn't been spectacular by any means (4.80 ERA in his 5 starts), but he also hasn't gotten slammed either. He's pitched well enough to win in just about all of his games (3 ER's or less in 4 of the 5, and 5 ER's in the other). Also the O's as a team have won 3 of their last 4 (all on the road). Not a bad spot for 1 Unit at these prices!
Detroit (Verlander) +115 / LA Angels (Weaver) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 10 LA Angels 7 Winner
Click here for full season results
Week: 8/24 - 8/30
-19.06 Units (Volume: 37.25 Units)
Sunday 8/30: -3.11 Units (Volume: 5.50 Units)
San Diego (Latos) +130 / Florida (West) & Under 9 Runs (-110) 1:10 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to in 1.70 Units
San Diego 4 Florida 6 Lose
Like we said Tuesday when we went AGAINST Matt Latos, he's been baseball's version of Jeckyll & Hyde where he either pitches lights out or he gets shelled (he pitched a gem beating us 2-1 as a +25 dog). It's worth a small half unit investment here at this price (3.4:1) because if he's on, this is a very winnable parlay... not to mention Florida has lost 8 of their last 12 while the Padres have won 4 of 5.
Washington - St. Louis 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Washington (Mock) +280 / St. Louis (Wainwright) 2:15 ET 0.5/Unit
Washington 1 St. Louis 2 Lose
Parlay: Washington +280 & Under 8 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 3.20 Units
Washington 1 St. Louis 2 Lose
Another great price as we stand to make 4.60 Units for our 1 Unit risk. Garrett Mock has some very good stuff. Although his ERA is a bit high don't let that fool you because he can take control of a game. In his last 4 starts, Mock has 27 K's in 22 2/3 innings while walking 11. We can see a pitcher's duel here and will get paid at the rate of nearly 5:1 if we come out on top.
Over 7.5 Runs (-110) Colorado (Hammel) / San Francisco (Cain) 4:05 ET 1.25 Units
Colorado 5 San Francisco 9 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Texas (Millwood) / Minnesota (Baker) 2:10 ET 1.5 Units
Texas 3 Minnestoa 5 Lose
Atlanta (Jurrjens) +116 / Philadelphia (Blanton) 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 2 Philadelphia 3 Lose
The Phils are showing the signs of a team at the tail end of a great run. The earlier you anticipate this happening, the more value there will be as the line maker is always slow to adjust. Philly has now lost 3 of their last 5 including losing their last series (1 game to 2) at Pittsburgh and their new ace Cliff Lee getting pummeled last night by these Braves (we read the game right as we were on the Braves along with a parlay with the under but Atlanta hit Lee TOO hard winning 9-1 so we only netted a small profit). But like we said, we feel Philly will endure a period of sub .500 ball for a week or two after winning 11 of 13 before their last 2 series.
Tonight Jair Jurrjens gets the start for the Braves coming off a real tough 1 run loss (1-2) in his last outing (2-3 vs SD on the 25th). In that game, Jurrjens gave up only 5 hits & 1 run in 7 2/3 innings while striking out 7. Many times when a quality pitcher is off a performance like that where they didn't get the win, in their next outing they're super focused as they have the "what's it going to take to win" mentality. Jurrjens has been solid all season as he's 10-8 with a 2.91 ERA over 148 innings. We expect him to shine once again in a very important game for Atlanta as they trail these Phils in the east by 7 (6 with a win) with 32 left to play... not an insurmountable deficit to overcome but these head on match-ups are key.
Saturday 8/29: -2.04 Units (Volume: 5.25 Units)
Atlanta - Philadelphia 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Atlanta (Lowe) +1.5 Runs (-140) / Philadelphia (Lee) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 9 Philadelphia 1 Winner
Parlay: Atlanta (Lowe) +170 / Philadelphia (Lee) & Under 8.5 Runs Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.98 Units
Atlanta 9 Philadelphia 1 Lose
Like we said right after the trade deadline, Cliff Lee would prove to have the biggest impact on his new team. Lee's now 5-0 with the Phillies with an ERA & WHIP of less than 1 each!!! He's been virtually un-hittable... but even the best have off days and what better spot can we ask for for that to happen. Atlanta's Derek Lowe has been solid all year with a 12-8 record. Although his ERA is a bit high (4.48), Lowe's only given up more than 3 ER's in 6 of his 27 outings and has held teams to 2 or less ER's in more than half his appearances (14 of 27). We're not expecting the Braves to get much off of Cliff Lee but we are expecting Derek Lowe to keep them in the game. We'll even show a small profit (+0.21/Unit) with a 1 run Atlanta loss, but we stand to make +2.69 Units for our 1.5 Unit risk if all works out.
Under 9 Runs (-110) San Diego (Leblanc) / Florida (Nolasco) 6:10 ET 1 Unit
San Diego 7 Florida 4 Lose
Over 8 Runs (-120) Colorado (Marquis) / San Francico (Zito) 9:05 ET 1.5 Units
Colorado 3 San Francisco 5 PUSH
Minnesota (Pavano) Even / Texas (Feldman) 7:10 ET 1.25 Units
Minnesota 0 Texas 3 Lose
Friday 8/28: -2.59 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
Washington (Lannan) +165 / St. Louis (Smoltz) 8:15 ET 1 Unit
Washington 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
Over 9 Runs (+105) Washington / St. Louis 1 Unit
Washington 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
We're sticking with our position on John Smoltz that he's finished and will never be close to his old self. Having one good outing in his debut with the Cards (8/23 at SD: 5 innings, 3 hits, 0 walks & 9 K's) does not erase the woes he had in Boston since his return 2 months ago ( 8 starts, 40 innings pitched, 59 hits, 9 walks, 33 K's & 37 earned runs. A 1.70 WHIP to go along with an 8.33 ERA!) We'll back the Nat's in this one along with the Over for 2 straight plays so as long as Washington scores 4, we're only at risk for 1 Unit total and with 5 Washington runs, we're guaranteed a profit!
Chicago WS (Buehrle) +1.5 Runs (-115) / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 2 NY Yankees 5 Lose
Parlay: Chicago WS (ML) +195 & Under 9 Runs (-125) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.15 Units
Chicago WS 2 NY Yankees 5 Lose
Isn't it amazing what pitching a perfect game can do to a pitcher? It's pretty common to have a letdown after such a feat, but in the case of Mark Buehrle, the letdown has lasted over 6 weeks!! Since his masterpiece on 7/23 vs the Rays, Buehrle is 0-4 with 2 ND's (37 2/3 inn., 54 his, 7 walks & 26 ER's... that's a 2.34 HIP & 6.21 ERA) and the White Sox are 1-5 in those games.... WOW! And as for the Yanks, CC Sabathia gets the start. You'll recall the rough start CC had this year as the Yanks were 11-11 in his first 22 starts which of course was a big money burner with the price that goes along with backing Sabathia but recently, he's really turned it on. NY has won Sabathia's last 6 starts.
Tonight we're looking for both of these lopsided situations to start to straighten out. This pitching match up is a rematch of August 2nd at Chicago where the Yanks won 8-5... it was the 2nd game after Buehrle's perfect game and the start of his terrible tailspin so it's certain to stand out in his head. We're fully expecting another solid performance from Sabathia tonight, but we're also expecting a super focused Mark Buehrle to get back to his early season form. We stand to make 3.02 Units for our 1.5 Unit risk and we can still show a profit with a 1 run WS loss.
Over 9 Runs (-110) Toronto (Richmond) / Boston (Beckett) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 5 Boston 6 Winner
Thursday 8/27: -2.55 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
NY Mets - Florida 3 Plays Total Risk 2.75 Units
NY Mets (Redding) +1.5 Runs (-105) / Florida (Sanchez) 1:10 ET 1 Unit
NY Mets 10 Florida 3 Winner
Under 9 Runs (-120) NY Mets (Redding) / Florida (Sanchez) 1.25 Units
NY Mets 10 Florida 3 Lose
Parlay: NY Mets +200 / Florida & Under 9 Runs (-120) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.25 Units
NY Mets 10 Florida 3 Lose
We're risking a total of 2.75 Units here with an upside of +4.24 Units. The Under is our main play. Winning it reduces our risk to less than half a unit (0.46/Unit). And even with the Mets losing a low scoring 1 run game we'll make +1.49 Units. As stated before, we feel the long string of Florida hot hitting is going to do a complete 180.
Oakland - LAA 2 Plays Total Risk 1.75 Units
Over 9.5 Runs (-115) Oakland (Cahill) / LA Angels (Santana) 10:25 ET 1.25 Units
Oakland 2 LA Angels 0 Lose
Parlay: Oakland (Cahill) +180 & Over 9.5 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.12 Units
Oakland 2 LA Angels 0 Lose
Wednesday 8/26: -7.00 Units (Volume: 7.00 Units)
Parlay: Atlanta (Kawakami) -225 / San Diego (Stauffer) 7:10 ET & Florida (Johnson) -250 / NY Mets (Pelfrey) 7:10 ET Risk 2 Units to win 2.04 Units
Atlanta 5 San Diego 12 Lose | Florida 5 NY Mets 3 Winner: Parlay Lose
Once again, we're limiting our exposure on 2 big favorites which, despite their huge prices, we feel have value. A 2 Unit risk on each straight would only yield a +1.68 Unit profit winning both, and a split would lose -1.12 U or -1.20 U. This way we're on the hook for half (2 Units) and stand to make more.
Washington (Hernandez) +250 / Chicago Cubs (Harden) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Washington 2 Chicago 9 Lose
Livan Hernandez makes his debut as a Washington National tonight. We're playing against the Cubs here as this is a struggling club right now having lost 6 of their last 8 and slipping to 9 games back of the Cards in the NL Central. Rich Harden gets the start for the Cubs and is coming off of a 7 inning, 1 hit & 3 walk performance in his last outing on the 19th at SD, but that's still not enough to justify this size lay with a team going bad!
Over 7.5 Runs (-120) Houston (Oswalt) / St. Louis (Piniero) 8:15 ET 1.5 Units
Houston 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
Over 10.5 Runs (-110) LA Dodgers (Wolf) / Colorado (Fogg) 8:40 ET 1.25 Units
LA Dodgers 6 Colorado 1 Lose
Tampa Bay (Kazmir) -119 / Toronto (Rzepczynsky) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Tampa bay 2 Toronto 3 Lose
Tuesday 8/25: -2.42 Units (Volume: 5.00 Units)
Atlanta (Jurrijens) -1.5 Runs (-115) / San Diego (Latos) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 1 San Diego 2 Lose
Parlay: Atlanta (ML) -250 & Over 8 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.81/Unit
Atlanta 1 San Diego 2 Lose
We're risking a total of 1.5 Units here with an upside of 1.68 Units, a far cry from the 0.6/Unit that a 1.5 Unit ML only play would yield. This is just too big of a price to lay with Atlanta tonight going against rookie Matt Latos. Latos has gotten shelled in his last 2 outings (a total of 7 2/3 innings pitched: 15 hits, 7 walks & 12 ER's), but before that, since his debut on 7/19), he's put forth some very impressive outings. On 7/29 Latos pitched 7 innings at Cincinnati allowing just 1 hit, 1 walk & 1 run as he cruised to a 7-1 win and he's also held these Braves down in his next start on 8/3 going 7 innings again allowing 6 hits, 2 walks & 2 runs winning 4-2. Looking at the big picture, in his first 5 starts (before his 2 most recent beatings), Latos pitched a combined 29 2/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.94 and an ERA of 2.42 (8 ER's in 29.66 innings!) So it's kind of a tale of 2 pitchers. We're just banking on Latos' woes continuing and if we're wrong we'll most likely lose, but we're setting ourselves up to get paid at a premium if we're right, nearly triple that of a ML only play!
LA Dodgers (Kershaw) -110 / Colorado (Hammel) 8:40 ET 1.5 Units
LA Dodgers 4 Colorado 5 Lose
Clayton Kershaw hasn't won a game in over 5 weeks. In fact, LA has lost each of his last 6 starts but in all fairness, you can't blame Kershaw as he's been brilliant over his last 6 pitching 33 innings and allowing just 11 ER's (3.00 ERA which is right at his season mark of 2.96). Problem has been lack of run support LA has scored just 14 runs in those 6 games (2.33 average per game). 4 of those 6 were 1 run losses... enough to drive a starter mad but we believe Kershaw will start reaping what he's been sowing. He has continued to put forth great efforts despite the bad breaks he's endured... a tell tale sign of a winner. Many would let this bad run get into their head, but Kershaw has hung in there and we believe he'll be rewarded.
Under 9.5 Runs (-105) Texas (Millwood) / NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Texas 10 NY Yankees 9 Lose
Detroit (Washburn) +158 / LA Angels (Lackey) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 5 LA Angels 3 Winner
OK, we'll bite! Detroit sends their newest pitching acquisition to the mound tonight in LA. Jarrod Washburn, since coming over from Seattle, is 0-1 with 3 ND's (Detroit has won all 3 ND's), but his numbers in those 4 game are a bit shaky which we'll attribute to new team jitters. (25.1 innings pitched, 24 hits, 6 walks & 17 ER's: that's a 1.20 WHIP & 6.12 ERA compared to his full season numbers of 1.09 WHIP & 3.18 ERA). We can't see these woes going much further, but it's these poor recent numbers driving this price (LAA -168). We feel this game should be no more than LAA -135 so enough of an overlay exists making this a very live dog.
Also note that John Lackey is coming off of a disastrous start of his own on the 20th in Cleveland where he gave up 6 ER's in 5 1/3 innings, and the Angels as a team have now lost 4 of their last 5 (this coming after winning 8 of their previous 9).
Monday 8/24: +0.65/Unit (Volume: 4.50 Units)
Over 9.5 Runs (Even) San Francisco (Zito) / Colorado (Marquis) 8:40 ET 1.5 Units
San Francisco 4 Colorado 6 Winner
Under 7.5 Runs (-105) Tampa Bay (Niemann) / Toronto (Halladay) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Tampa bay 12 Toronto 7 Lose
Baltimore - Minnesota 2 Plays Tota Risk 1 Unit
Baltimore (Tillman) +185 / Minnesota (Baker) 8:10 ET 0.5/Unit
Baltimore 1 Minnesota 2 Lose
Parlay: Baltimore +185 & Over 9 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.28 Units
Baltimore 1 Minnesota 2 Lose
Nice price here as we stand to make 3.20 Units for our 1 Unit risk. Although his overall numbers are decent, Scott Baker has been erratic throughout the season. He's given up at least 4 ER's in 11 of his 24 starts this year including twice in his last 3 outings. Granted he's also thrown some gems recently, but we can't justify this huge price (and neither can the sharps as this price is "down" to -205 from the opening of -235 despite two thirds of the action being on the Twins!) Baltimore's Chris Tillman hasn't been spectacular by any means (4.80 ERA in his 5 starts), but he also hasn't gotten slammed either. He's pitched well enough to win in just about all of his games (3 ER's or less in 4 of the 5, and 5 ER's in the other). Also the O's as a team have won 3 of their last 4 (all on the road). Not a bad spot for 1 Unit at these prices!
Detroit (Verlander) +115 / LA Angels (Weaver) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 10 LA Angels 7 Winner