2009 MLB Results
Click here for full season results
Week: 7/27 - 8/02
+3.10 Units (Volume: 34.75 Units)
Sunday 8/02: +3.18 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
Chicago WS (Buhrle) +130 / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 2:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 5 NY Yankees 8 Lose
The White Sox are going for the 4 game sweep of New York this afternoon as CC Sabathia and Mark Buhrle face off. We've pointed out many times the fact that Sabathia has been one of the biggest betting flops in baseball this season. In Sabathia's 22 starts, the Yankees are 11-11 this season and a 1 unit risk on each would have yielded a -5.19 Unit loss... -23.6%/volume! With NY losers of 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, they're depending on Sabathia to be their "go to guy".... Sure, there's plenty of "the Yankees aren't going to get swept" talk and it would seem real easy to take CC at such a cheap price but let's not forget that Buhrle pitched a perfect game 2 starts ago (and has had his "let down loss" since). These are 2 teams going in opposite directions and we look for that to continue (at least through today). Also remember, the Yankees, no matter how good they are, always seem to throw in some horrible runs. Last year, right around this time NY lost 8 of 11 (between 8/04 - 8/15) and have already lost 4 straight and 5 straight earlier this season. Look for the Sox to complete the sweep as they have their eye on first place in the Central just a game and a half back of the Tigers.
LA Dodgers (Billingsly) +127 / Atlanta (Jurrijens) 8:05 ET 1.25 Unit
LA Dodgers 9 Atlanta 1 Winner
San Francisco (Zito) +155 / Philadelphia (Hamels) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
San Francisco 7 Philadelphia 3 Winner
Not a bad spot to risk a unit. The Giants have found ways to win without scoring this season as they're 57-47 while averaging under 4 runs per game (3.93) and we don't expect them to get much today off of Cole Hamels. As much of a disappointment Barry Zito has been since SF signed him in 2007 (27-40 with an ERA in the upper 4's), he has what it takes to keep his team in the game. In fact, despite Zito being 6-10 this season, he's been a money maker. The Giants are 10-11 in his starts but because of the lack of respect he's getting in the line, a 1 unit risk on each of Zito's starts would have yielded a profit of +1.88 units (+9%/Volume).
Under 8 Runs (-120) Chicago Cubs (Dempster) / Florida Nolasco) 4:05 ET 1.25 Unit
Chicago Cubs 2 Florida 3 Winner
Saturday 8/01: +1.66 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)
Parlay: Houston (Rodriguez) +175 / St. Louis (Carpenter) & Under 7 Runs (-105) 7:15 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.18 Units
Houston 1 St. Louis 3 Lose
The price is right here getting over 4:1 where as if the game stays under, it's really anyone's game with these 2 teams and these 2 starters. We'll take a half unit shot.
Paray: Chicago WS (Danks) +130 / NY Yankees (Burnett) & Under 8.5 Runs (-115) 4:05 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.65 Units
Chicago 14 NY Yankees 4 Lose
Once again, nice price (+330) to get paid on a very possible scenario.
Detroit (Porcello) -117 / Cleveland (Sowers) 7:05 ET 1.5 Units
Detroit 4 Clevelenad 3 Winner
LA Angels (Saunders) +138 / Minnesota (Swarzak) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 11 Minnesota 6 Winner
Friday 7/31: +5.15 Units (Volume: 6.75 Units)
Florida (Volstad) +120 / Chicago Cubs (Harden) 7:10 ET 1.25 Units
Florida 5 Chicago 2 Winner
LA Dodgers (Schmidt) +160 / Atlanta (Hanson) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 5 Atlanta 0 Winner
We're 4-2 this season in releases involving Tommy Hanson (either going against him or "Over") for a net profit of 3.30 units on a volume of 10.75 units (+31%). Our position all along has been that Hanson has been getting way too many breaks where his numbers didn't make any sense (for complete details, click here to see our analysis on our most recent "Hanson" involved release on Saturday, 7/25 when we had Milwaukee -128 for 2 units against Hanson).
Tonight the Dodgers roll into town to face Tommy Hanson and the Braves. LA scratched out a win last night in St. Louis (5-3/10 innings) to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Cards and to keep from losing 5 in a row. We look for LA to get back on track tonight as Tommy Hanson is dealt his first home loss.
Philadelphia - San Francisco 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Philadelphia (Lee) -175 / San Francisco (Sadowski) 10:15 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 5 San Francisco 1 Winner
Parlay: Philadelphia -175 & Under 8 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.03 Units
Philadelphia 5 San Francisco 1 Winner
The Giants are having a hard enough time scoring lately (avg. 3 rpg last 10) and now they must face Cliff Lee who they, for the most part, have never faced. It's a hefty lay (-175), but by incorporating the half unit parlay in, we stand to make 1.60 units for our 1.50 unit risk with a Philly & under result, and will make a slight profit (0.07/unit) if the total loses...
Baltimore (Guthrie) +103 / Boston (Smoltz) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Baltimore 5 Boston 6 Lose
It would appear to us that Smoltz's career is over. The once great Cy Young winner is just a shell of what he once was yet the linemaker & betting public can't let go! Since returning from his shoulder problems at the end of June, the Red Sox are 1-5 in Smoltz's starts as he's given up 5+ ER's in 4 of those games. We believe that what's keeping Smoltz hanging on is his accuracy... in his 30 2/3 innings of work, he's only walked 5 while striking out 28, but when the "POP" is gone from a pitcher's delivery, he's going to get belted like it's batting practice... and that's what the case is here.
LA Angels (Santana) +145 / Minnesota (Blackburn) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 11 Minnesota 5 Winner
Under 10 Runs (-115) Kansas City (Ponson) / Tampa Bay (Price) 7:35 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 2 Tampa Bay 8 PUSH
Thursday 7/30: -3.25 Units (Volume: 3.25 Units)
Wednesday 7/29: -0.67 Units (Volume: 5.75 Units)
Over 9.5 Runs (+105) Cleveland (Laffey) / LA Angels (Lackey) 3:35 ET 1.5 Units
Cleveland 3 LA Angels 9 Winner
Milwaukee (Parra) -1.5 Runs (Even) / Washington (Mock) 8:15 ET 1 Unit
Milwaukee 7 Washington 5 Winner
Garrett Mock has shown absolutely nothing coming out of the bullpen (6.94 ERA) so he was moved to starter (2 starts this season) where he's even worse (8 2/3 innings: 17 hits 7 ER's!). The run line is the only way for us to play this game... the ML is Mil -210. Getting paid more than twice the price here is worth having to overcome the run and a half at home.
Over 8 Runs (-120) LA Dodgers (Kershaw) / St. Louis (Piniero) 8:15 ET 2 Units
LA Dodgers 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) NY Yankees (Chamberain) / Tampa Bay (Garza) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
NY Yankees 6 Tampa Bay 2 Lose
Tuesday 7/28: -3.55 Units (Volume: 6.25 Units)
Over 8 Runs (-110) Atlanta (Jurrijens) / Florida (Nolasco) 7:10 ET 1.5 Units
Atlanta 3 Florida 4 Lose
Chicago Cubs (Dempster) -105 / Houston (Oswalt) 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago 6 Houston 11 Lose
Over 8 Runs (-110) Pittsburgh (Morton) / San Francisco (Zito) 10:15 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 2 San Francisco 3 Lose
Minnesota (Baker) -125 / Chicago WS (Buhrle) 8:10 ET 1.5 Units
Minnesota 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner
Toronto (Rzepczynski) +110 / Seattle (Washburn) 10:10 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 3 Seattle 4 Lose
Monday 7/27: +0.58 Units (Volume: 4.75 Units)
Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) -150 / Houston (Rodriguez) 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago 5 Houston1 Winner
LAD - St. Louis 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
St. Louis (Carpenter) -160 / LA Dodgers (Wolf) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 6 LA Daodgers 1 Winner
Parlay: St. Louis (Carpenter) -160 / LAD (Wolf) & Under 7.5 Runs (Even) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.12 Units
St. Louis 6 LA Daodgers 1 Winner
How low can you go? That's the question pondered by lines makers here, but we feel this total should be even lower. We're looking for Chris Carpenter to turn in another stellar performance as he rebounds from a tough no decision at Houston on 7/22 (3-4 F) giving up just 2 ER's over 8 innings.
Arizona (Garland) +103/ Philadelphia (Moyer) 9:40 Et 1 Unit
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 6 Lose
Once again going against the 46 year old Moyer as his durability has been tested in the hot summer months. Moyer got roughed up in his last outing going just 5 innings and giving up 8 hits, 3 walks and 5 ER's. His average pitch count in his last 5 starts has only been 83 (down from an avg. of 101 in the 5 prior to that) which is a tell tale sign that the ageless wonder is slowing down.
Pittsburgh - San Francisco 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Pittsburgh (Maholm) +215/ San Francisco (Lincecum) 7:10 ET 0.5/Unit
Pittsburgh 2 San Francisco 4 Lose
Parlay: Pittsburgh +215 & Under 7 Runs (-110) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.51 Units
Pittsburgh 2 San Francisco 4 Lose
Big value exist here. Although Maholm's ERA is almost double that of Tim Lincecum, in Maholm's case he's either on or he's off. In 11 of his 20 starts, Maholm allowed 2 or fewer ERs and in the other 9 he's allowed 4 or more (5 or more in 7). What's really adding to the huge price obviously is Tim Lincecum. Yes he's having an unbelievable season but he can be beaten which is the case in his last 2 starts (7/22: 2-4 at Atlanta and 7/17: 1-2 at Pittsburgh in this same exact pitching match up!) So to be in a position to win 3.59 units for a 1 unit risk on something to repeat that happened 10 days ago is surely worth the shot.
Click here for full season results
Week: 7/27 - 8/02
+3.10 Units (Volume: 34.75 Units)
Sunday 8/02: +3.18 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
Chicago WS (Buhrle) +130 / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 2:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 5 NY Yankees 8 Lose
The White Sox are going for the 4 game sweep of New York this afternoon as CC Sabathia and Mark Buhrle face off. We've pointed out many times the fact that Sabathia has been one of the biggest betting flops in baseball this season. In Sabathia's 22 starts, the Yankees are 11-11 this season and a 1 unit risk on each would have yielded a -5.19 Unit loss... -23.6%/volume! With NY losers of 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, they're depending on Sabathia to be their "go to guy".... Sure, there's plenty of "the Yankees aren't going to get swept" talk and it would seem real easy to take CC at such a cheap price but let's not forget that Buhrle pitched a perfect game 2 starts ago (and has had his "let down loss" since). These are 2 teams going in opposite directions and we look for that to continue (at least through today). Also remember, the Yankees, no matter how good they are, always seem to throw in some horrible runs. Last year, right around this time NY lost 8 of 11 (between 8/04 - 8/15) and have already lost 4 straight and 5 straight earlier this season. Look for the Sox to complete the sweep as they have their eye on first place in the Central just a game and a half back of the Tigers.
LA Dodgers (Billingsly) +127 / Atlanta (Jurrijens) 8:05 ET 1.25 Unit
LA Dodgers 9 Atlanta 1 Winner
San Francisco (Zito) +155 / Philadelphia (Hamels) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
San Francisco 7 Philadelphia 3 Winner
Not a bad spot to risk a unit. The Giants have found ways to win without scoring this season as they're 57-47 while averaging under 4 runs per game (3.93) and we don't expect them to get much today off of Cole Hamels. As much of a disappointment Barry Zito has been since SF signed him in 2007 (27-40 with an ERA in the upper 4's), he has what it takes to keep his team in the game. In fact, despite Zito being 6-10 this season, he's been a money maker. The Giants are 10-11 in his starts but because of the lack of respect he's getting in the line, a 1 unit risk on each of Zito's starts would have yielded a profit of +1.88 units (+9%/Volume).
Under 8 Runs (-120) Chicago Cubs (Dempster) / Florida Nolasco) 4:05 ET 1.25 Unit
Chicago Cubs 2 Florida 3 Winner
Saturday 8/01: +1.66 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)
Parlay: Houston (Rodriguez) +175 / St. Louis (Carpenter) & Under 7 Runs (-105) 7:15 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.18 Units
Houston 1 St. Louis 3 Lose
The price is right here getting over 4:1 where as if the game stays under, it's really anyone's game with these 2 teams and these 2 starters. We'll take a half unit shot.
Paray: Chicago WS (Danks) +130 / NY Yankees (Burnett) & Under 8.5 Runs (-115) 4:05 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.65 Units
Chicago 14 NY Yankees 4 Lose
Once again, nice price (+330) to get paid on a very possible scenario.
Detroit (Porcello) -117 / Cleveland (Sowers) 7:05 ET 1.5 Units
Detroit 4 Clevelenad 3 Winner
LA Angels (Saunders) +138 / Minnesota (Swarzak) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 11 Minnesota 6 Winner
Friday 7/31: +5.15 Units (Volume: 6.75 Units)
Florida (Volstad) +120 / Chicago Cubs (Harden) 7:10 ET 1.25 Units
Florida 5 Chicago 2 Winner
LA Dodgers (Schmidt) +160 / Atlanta (Hanson) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 5 Atlanta 0 Winner
We're 4-2 this season in releases involving Tommy Hanson (either going against him or "Over") for a net profit of 3.30 units on a volume of 10.75 units (+31%). Our position all along has been that Hanson has been getting way too many breaks where his numbers didn't make any sense (for complete details, click here to see our analysis on our most recent "Hanson" involved release on Saturday, 7/25 when we had Milwaukee -128 for 2 units against Hanson).
Tonight the Dodgers roll into town to face Tommy Hanson and the Braves. LA scratched out a win last night in St. Louis (5-3/10 innings) to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Cards and to keep from losing 5 in a row. We look for LA to get back on track tonight as Tommy Hanson is dealt his first home loss.
Philadelphia - San Francisco 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Philadelphia (Lee) -175 / San Francisco (Sadowski) 10:15 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 5 San Francisco 1 Winner
Parlay: Philadelphia -175 & Under 8 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.03 Units
Philadelphia 5 San Francisco 1 Winner
The Giants are having a hard enough time scoring lately (avg. 3 rpg last 10) and now they must face Cliff Lee who they, for the most part, have never faced. It's a hefty lay (-175), but by incorporating the half unit parlay in, we stand to make 1.60 units for our 1.50 unit risk with a Philly & under result, and will make a slight profit (0.07/unit) if the total loses...
Baltimore (Guthrie) +103 / Boston (Smoltz) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Baltimore 5 Boston 6 Lose
It would appear to us that Smoltz's career is over. The once great Cy Young winner is just a shell of what he once was yet the linemaker & betting public can't let go! Since returning from his shoulder problems at the end of June, the Red Sox are 1-5 in Smoltz's starts as he's given up 5+ ER's in 4 of those games. We believe that what's keeping Smoltz hanging on is his accuracy... in his 30 2/3 innings of work, he's only walked 5 while striking out 28, but when the "POP" is gone from a pitcher's delivery, he's going to get belted like it's batting practice... and that's what the case is here.
LA Angels (Santana) +145 / Minnesota (Blackburn) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 11 Minnesota 5 Winner
Under 10 Runs (-115) Kansas City (Ponson) / Tampa Bay (Price) 7:35 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 2 Tampa Bay 8 PUSH
Thursday 7/30: -3.25 Units (Volume: 3.25 Units)
St. Louis (Lohse) -108/ LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 8:15 ET 1.75 Units
St. Louis 3 LA Dodgers 5 Lose
Well, the Dodgers have finally hit a wall losing 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Prior to this current slump, LA hasn't lost more than 2 in a row all season! Meanwhile, the Cards are winners of 5 of their last 7 and have regained first place in the NL Central from the Cubs. Tonight St. Louis goes for the 4 game sweep of LA behind Kyle Lohse. Lohse has yet to get back on track since returning from a forearm injury. His overall numbers haven't been terrible (5.50 ERA in his last 4 starts: since returning), but St. Louis has lost all 4 games. With the Cards in such a tight race with Chicago and playing so well, this is a prime spot for the veteran to find his way and and turn in a big effort.
Oakland - Boston 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Under 9 Runs (Even) Oakland (Gonzalez) / Boston (Lester) 1:35 ET 1 Unit
Oakland 5 Boston 8 Lose
Parlay: Oakland +315 & Under 9 Runs Risk 0.5/Unit to win 3.65 Units
Oakland 5 Boston 8 Lose
Gonzalez has a 7.75 ERA to Lester's 3.79 and Boston's team record is 15 games better than the A's, but baseball is much about "what have you done lately?" Over his last 10 starts. Jon Lester has an ERA of under 2 (1.82), so we fully expect another quality outing from him hence the under. In Gio Gonzalez's last start, he went into Yankee Stadium and completely shut down the powerful NY line-up holding them to just 2 hits, 3 walks and 1 earned run while striking out 6 in 6 2/3 innings as the A's went on to win 6-4 beating Andy Pettitte (this past Saturday 7/25). Oakland has beaten the Red Sox 2 out of 3 so far in this series so they are a very confident team at the moment. If they can get another quality outing out of Gonzalez here, the under should be easy and with a couple of favorable breaks along the way, another road win in Boston is possible.
We stand to make 4.65 units for our 1.5 unit risk with the under being our main play. We are assured a half unit profit with the under prevailing. Of course we expect to lose the Oakland play more times than we win it, but getting 7.3:1 on the parlay makes this a decent investment.
Wednesday 7/29: -0.67 Units (Volume: 5.75 Units)
Over 9.5 Runs (+105) Cleveland (Laffey) / LA Angels (Lackey) 3:35 ET 1.5 Units
Cleveland 3 LA Angels 9 Winner
Milwaukee (Parra) -1.5 Runs (Even) / Washington (Mock) 8:15 ET 1 Unit
Milwaukee 7 Washington 5 Winner
Garrett Mock has shown absolutely nothing coming out of the bullpen (6.94 ERA) so he was moved to starter (2 starts this season) where he's even worse (8 2/3 innings: 17 hits 7 ER's!). The run line is the only way for us to play this game... the ML is Mil -210. Getting paid more than twice the price here is worth having to overcome the run and a half at home.
Over 8 Runs (-120) LA Dodgers (Kershaw) / St. Louis (Piniero) 8:15 ET 2 Units
LA Dodgers 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) NY Yankees (Chamberain) / Tampa Bay (Garza) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
NY Yankees 6 Tampa Bay 2 Lose
Tuesday 7/28: -3.55 Units (Volume: 6.25 Units)
Over 8 Runs (-110) Atlanta (Jurrijens) / Florida (Nolasco) 7:10 ET 1.5 Units
Atlanta 3 Florida 4 Lose
Chicago Cubs (Dempster) -105 / Houston (Oswalt) 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago 6 Houston 11 Lose
Over 8 Runs (-110) Pittsburgh (Morton) / San Francisco (Zito) 10:15 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 2 San Francisco 3 Lose
Minnesota (Baker) -125 / Chicago WS (Buhrle) 8:10 ET 1.5 Units
Minnesota 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner
Toronto (Rzepczynski) +110 / Seattle (Washburn) 10:10 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 3 Seattle 4 Lose
Monday 7/27: +0.58 Units (Volume: 4.75 Units)
Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) -150 / Houston (Rodriguez) 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago 5 Houston1 Winner
LAD - St. Louis 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
St. Louis (Carpenter) -160 / LA Dodgers (Wolf) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 6 LA Daodgers 1 Winner
Parlay: St. Louis (Carpenter) -160 / LAD (Wolf) & Under 7.5 Runs (Even) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.12 Units
St. Louis 6 LA Daodgers 1 Winner
How low can you go? That's the question pondered by lines makers here, but we feel this total should be even lower. We're looking for Chris Carpenter to turn in another stellar performance as he rebounds from a tough no decision at Houston on 7/22 (3-4 F) giving up just 2 ER's over 8 innings.
Arizona (Garland) +103/ Philadelphia (Moyer) 9:40 Et 1 Unit
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 6 Lose
Once again going against the 46 year old Moyer as his durability has been tested in the hot summer months. Moyer got roughed up in his last outing going just 5 innings and giving up 8 hits, 3 walks and 5 ER's. His average pitch count in his last 5 starts has only been 83 (down from an avg. of 101 in the 5 prior to that) which is a tell tale sign that the ageless wonder is slowing down.
Pittsburgh - San Francisco 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Pittsburgh (Maholm) +215/ San Francisco (Lincecum) 7:10 ET 0.5/Unit
Pittsburgh 2 San Francisco 4 Lose
Parlay: Pittsburgh +215 & Under 7 Runs (-110) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.51 Units
Pittsburgh 2 San Francisco 4 Lose
Big value exist here. Although Maholm's ERA is almost double that of Tim Lincecum, in Maholm's case he's either on or he's off. In 11 of his 20 starts, Maholm allowed 2 or fewer ERs and in the other 9 he's allowed 4 or more (5 or more in 7). What's really adding to the huge price obviously is Tim Lincecum. Yes he's having an unbelievable season but he can be beaten which is the case in his last 2 starts (7/22: 2-4 at Atlanta and 7/17: 1-2 at Pittsburgh in this same exact pitching match up!) So to be in a position to win 3.59 units for a 1 unit risk on something to repeat that happened 10 days ago is surely worth the shot.