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Week: 7/20 - 7/26
+0.07 Units (Volume: 35.00 Units)
Sunday 7/26: +1.42 Units (Volume: 3.75 Units)
St. Louis (Wellemeyer) +140 / Philadelphia (Blanton) 1:35 ET 1.25 Units
St. Louis 2 Philadelphia 9 Lose
Atlanta (Lowe) -112 / Milwaukee (Looper) 2:05 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 10 Milwaukee 2 Winner
Florida (Volstad) +125 / LA Dodgers (Schmidt) 4:10 ET 1.25 Units
Florida 8 LA Dodgers 6 Winner
Saturday 7/25: +3.90 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
We've played either against Tommy Hanson or on the Over in a Hanson start 5 times this season and are 3-2... +1.74 units overall on a volume of 8.75 units (+19.9%). We had lost our first 2 "Hanson" plays (6/23: Over 9 NYY/Atl 1.25 Units (4-0 F) and 6/28 Boston (Penny) -105 / Atlanta (Hanson) 2 Units (1-2 F). Since then we have won our last 3 "Hanson" plays: 7/4 Washington (Lannan) +105 / Atl (Hanson) 1.5 Units, 7/9 Over 9 Atlanta / Colorado 2 Units (6-7 F) and most recent on 7/20: Over 8.5 SF / Atl 2 Units (11-3 F). Our position all along has been that Hanson has been getting way too many breaks where his numbers didn't make any sense. Going into the Washington game on July 4th, Tommy Hanson had a 1.41 WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched) and an ERA of just 2.48. To better illustrate our point, here's our write-up from that Washington play:
Saturday, July 4th
Washington (Lannan) +105 / Atlanta (Hanson) 1:05 Et 1.5 Units
Washington 5 Atanta 3 Winner
Like we told you last Sunday when we were on Boston over the Braves and Tommy Hanson, it's just a matter of time before Hanson's W/L record catches up to his overall numbers. The Braves are a perfect 5-0 in Hanson's starts this season but take a look at the numbers: He has a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 2.48... that's near impossible to do! That means he allows 12.69 base runners (via walk or hit) per 9 innings yet only allows 2.48 runs per 9 innings. And if you take his first start out of the equation (an 8-7 Atlanta win with Hanson giving up 6 hits and 6 ER's), in his 4 latest starts Hanson has pitched 23 innings giving up 18 hits and 16 walks but has only allowed a total of 2 runs!! So THAT"S a WHIP of 1.48 and an ERA of 1.28.... get the picture? Hanson's allowed an average of about 1 and a half base runners per inning over his last 4 starts (34 base runners... 23 innings) and has allowed just 2 to cross the plate... When the bottom falls out it's going to be ugly!
Of course we have to be concerned because today the Braves are playing the team with the worst record in baseball, but John Lannan as pitched well (5-5, 1.35 WHIP & 3.45 ERA) and as we've said before, even bad teams in MLB win 50 games in a season.
His numbers are becoming more realistic now but they're still not fully settled. With 3 more starts in the books for Hanson, his WHIP has gone down to 1.27 while his ERA has risen to 3.00, but his overall good fortune has continued. Despite Atlanta losing 2 of his last 3 starts, Hanson has managed 2 "no decisions" and 1 win bringing his record to 5-0 on the season (Atlanta is now 6-2 in Hanson started games).
Tonight the Braves face Milwaukee and Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo has pitched some masterpieces this season including three 8 inning 2 hit shutouts! The Brewers won 10 of Gallardo's first 15 starts until losing his 4 most recent starts. Gallardo has an overall WHIP of 1.26 and an ERA of 3.28 (that's over 19 starts: 120 innings pitched as opposed to Hanson's 8 starts and 48 innings pitched). The Brewers are involved in an extremely tight race in the NL Central as only 2 games in the loss column separate 4 teams. We look for Milwaukee to step up tonight and even the series behind a strong performance from Gallardo as Hanson continues is plunge back down to earth.
Over 9 Runs (-105) San Francisco (Sanchez) / Colorado (De La Rosa) 8:10 ET 1.5 Units
San Francisco 2 Colorado 8 Winner
Boston (Lester) -1.5 Runs (-115) / Baltimore (Guthrie) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Boston 7 Baltimore 2 Winner
Friday 7/24: +1.84 Units (Volume: 5.00 Units)
Over 9 Runs (-120) St. Louis (Piniero) / Philadelphia (Happ) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
St. Louis 8 Philadelphia 1 PUSH
Houston (Hampton) +120 / NY Mets (Santana) 8:05 ET 1.5 Units
Houston 5 NY Mets 4 Winner
2 teams here going in opposite directions. The Mets have now lost 16 of their last 23 and are showing no signs of breaking out of the slump as they're fresh off another series loss, this time to the lowly Nationals. Meanwhile, Houston has won 11 of their last 15 and are 3 games above .500. Can't justify the Mets laying this number on the road under these circumstances.... even with Johan Santana starting. Mike Hampton is no slouch either. In fact, it's the recent sub par outings by Hampton that creates this fat price but it's just a matter of time before he gets back on track and with the Astros in such a groove, we feel tonight's it!
Over 7 Runs (-120) Florida (Johnson) / LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 10:10 ET 1.25 Units
Florida 6 LA Dodgers 3 Winner
Minnesota (Liriano) +140 / LA Angels (Lackey) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 3 LA Angels 6 Lose
Thursday 7/23: -1.83 Units (Volume: 6.50 Units)
Seattle - Detroit 3 plays Total Risk 2 Units
Detroit (French) -1.5 Runs (+170) / Seattle (Washburn) 1:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Detroit 1 Seattle 2 Lose
Over 9 Runs (+105) Seattle (Washburn) / Detroit (French) 1 Unit
Detroit 1 Seattle 2 Lose
Parlay: Detroit (ML) -117 & Over 9 Runs (+105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.40 Units
Detroit 1 Seattle 2 Lose
We stand to make 3.30 units for our 2 unit risk and the way our plays are structured, 5 Detroit runs is our magic number. With this, our exposure is limited to just 0.65/Unit.
Over 7.5 Runs (-125) Pittsburgh (Morton) / Arizona (Haren) 9:40 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 4 Arizona 11 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (-115) San Diego (Correia) / Philadelphia (Hamels) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
San Diego 4 Philadelphia 9 Winner
Oakland - NY Yankees 3 Plays Total Risk 2.5 Units
Oakland (Mazzaro) +1.5 Runs (+110)/ NY Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Oakland 3 NY Yankees 6 Lose
Under 9 Runs (+105) Oakland (Mazzaro) / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Oakland 3 NY Yankees 6 PUSH
Parlay: Oakland +250 & Under 9 Runs (+105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 3.09 Units
Oakland 3 NY Yankees 6 Lose
Our position on CC Sabathia hasn't changed. As we said the last time CC laid this kind of wood back on 7/2 vs Seattle (-315 and a big win for us w/ Seattle & Over parlay... 8-4 F), he's one of the biggest betting flops this season. Going into that game with Seattle, the Yankees were 8-8 in Sabathia's 16 starts and a 1 unit risk on each produced a -3.98 Unit loss (-24.9% of the volume of money put into action!). Now, three weeks and four starts later, the Yanks are 10-10 in CC's starts and a 1 unit risk on each produced a -4.56 loss (still a -22.8% loss/volume). We're not suggesting an automatic fade every time Sabathia starts, but in overpriced situations like today, the reward warrants the risk.
We stand to make 5.24 units on our 2.5 unit risk (average price of +209) on a situation that really is a decent possibility. We're going to give Sabathia the respect here to turn in a quality outing as it's no secret he gets stronger as the season progresses, and tonight Vin Mazzaro gets the start for Oakland. You'll remember that Mazzaro started the season off (back in the beginning of June) with 2 straight shutout outings. On 6/2, Mazzaro went 6 and a third giving up just 3 hits and on 6/7 he went 7 and a third allowing 5 hits. During that time, the A's made a surge winning 7 in a row. Since those 2 fine outings by the 22 year old righty, the A's have lost in Mazzaro's last 7 starts, but to his credit he allowed 3 or fewer ER's in 6 of his 9 starts overall so we feel Mazzaro does have the ability. He's on the road in Yankee Stadium for the first time tonight so if ever he's to get up for a game, this is it.
Wednesday 7/22: -4.50 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
Milwaukee (Suppan) Even / Pittsburgh (Maholm) 12:35 ET 1.5 Units
Milwaukee 7 Pittsburgh 8 Lose
Over 10.5 Runs (-115) Baltimore (Berken) / NY Yankees (Burnett) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Baltimore 4 NY Yankees 6 Lose
Detroit (Galarrago) +116 / Seattle (Hernandez) 7:05 ET 2 Units
Detroit 1 Seattle 2 Lose
Tuesday 7/21: -0.33/Unit (Volume: 6.50 Units)
Over 9 Runs (Even) Chicago Cubs (Harden) / Philadelphia (Blanton) 7:05 ET 2 Units
Chicago Cubs 1 Philadelphia 4 Lose
St. Louis (Wellemeyer) +140 / Houston (Rodrigez) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 6 Houston 11 Lose
Over 9.5 Runs (Even) Arizona (Scherzer) / Colorado (Cook) 8:40 ET 1.25 Units
Arizona 6 Colorado 5 Winner
Cleveland (Lee) -110 / Toronto (Cecil) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Cleveland 2 Toronto 1 Winner
Boston - Toronto 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Texas (Hunter) +155 / Boston (Beckett) 8:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Texas 4 Boston 2 Winner
Parlay: Texas (Hunter) +155 & Over 9.5 Runs (Even) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.05 Units
Texas 4 Boston 2 Lose
Monday 7/20: -0.43/Unit (Volume: 4.25 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) San Francisco (Sanchez) / Atlanta (Hanson) 7:10 ET 2 Units
Atlanta 11 San Francisco 3 Winner
Arizona (Davis) +140 / Colorado (De La Rosa) 8:40 ET 1.25 Units
Arizona 6 Colorado 10 Lose
Cincinnati (Owings) +135 / LA Dodgers (Schmidt) 10:10 ET 1 Unit
Cincinnati 5 LA Dodgers 7 Lose
This is Jason Schmidts's first start in over 2 years due to extensive arm & shoulder surgery. The 36 year old Schmidt was with the Giants for 5 seasons before LA (2002-2006) where he was 71-36 with a 3.37 ERA. The Dodgers signed him to a 3 year $47 Million deal after the 2006 season, but Schmidt started only 6 games for LA in '06 going 1-4 with a 6.31 ERA.
It's tough making a comeback after such a long time out of the game. Look at Jon Smoltz this season returning after a 14 month absence (gave up 5 ER's in 5 innings at Washington in his 1st game back). Of course the Dodgers would love for Schmidt to step up and pitch a gem tonight. We're not saying he can't, but that's simply an unrealistic expectation.
For the Reds, Micah Owings gets the start. Owings has had a few rough outings this season, but when he's on he's on. Owings has given up 2 or fewer ER's in 9 of his 17 starts this season and the fact that he got knocked around in his last outing (8 Hits, 4 Walks & 7 ER's in 4.1 innings of work), gets a very generous price going against Jason Schmidt in is return debut. And also realize that even though Cincinnati is in 5th place in the NL central, they're only 5.5 games back so every game is very important to them... they're very much in the hunt to make the playoffs where as the Dodgers have a stranglehold on the West leading by 7.5 games. Perhaps this is why LA can try and work Schmidt back into the rotation now... to get him ready for October.