2009 MLB Results
Click here for full season results
Week: 7/13 - 7/19
-4.39 Units (Volume: 13.25 Units)
Sunday 7/19: +0.80 Units (Volume: 4.75 Units)
Under 9 Runs (-110) Philadelphia (Happ) / Florida (Miller) 1:10 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 5 Florida 0 Winner
Arizona (Petit) +185 / St. Louis (Piniero) 2:15 ET 1 Unit
Arizona 1 St. Louis 2 Lose
Boston - Toronto 2 Plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Toronto (Halladay) -113 / Boston (Lester) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 3 Boston 1 Winner
Parlay: Toronto -113 & Under 7.5 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.26 Units
Toronto 3 Boston 1 Winner
After opening the season 27-14, the Blue Jays lost 9 in a row in the latter part of May and have been treading water since as they now find themselves 2 games below .500 and 11 games back in the AL East. Toronto beat Boston yesterday 6-2 snapping a 3 game skid and will look to build on that win this afternoon behind their ace. We expect a classic pitcher's duel here as we stand to make 2.14 units for our 1.5 unit risk.
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) LA Angels (Lackey) / Oakland (Anderson) 4:05 ET 1.25 Units
LAA 1 Oakland 0 Lose
Saturday 7/18: -3.25 Units (Volume: 3.25 Units)
Philadelphia - Florida 3 Plays Total Risk 2 units
Florida (Johnson) -1.5 Runs (+170) / Philadelphia (Blanton) 7:10 ET 0.5/Unit
Rained Out: (Florida was leading 2-0 in the 1st when the game was stopped)
Over 8.5 Runs (-105) Philadelphia (Blanton) / Florida (Johnson) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Parlay: Florida (ML) -120 & Over 8.5 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.21 Units
At risk for a total of 2 units here with an upside of 3 units. We're able wind up with an overall price of nearly 1.5:1 by playing our overall thinking. We feel Joe Blanton will get hit early and often today. Blanton has had some very shaky outings this season, mainly in his first 8 starts where he pitched a combined 44 innings giving up 57 hits, 16 walks & 36 ER's. That's a 1.65 WHIP and a 7.17 ERA. Since then, in his other 9 starts, Blanton has a 1.15 WHIP and a 2.44 ERA, but considering his career numbers are way worse (1.34 WHIP and a 4.05 ERA), we'll chalk it up to the natural swings every pitcher goes through and take the added line value that this temporary run has created for us. On the other side, Josh Johnson has been solid throughout his career with a 1.31 WHIP and a 3.28 ERA and he's been steady all season with an 8-2 record and a 2.74 ERA / 1.12 WHIP.
The way our plays are structured, there are many different scenarios that can make us a profit here and/or greatly reduce our exposure, and they all revolve around our thinking. With 5 Florida runs scored, our risk is down to less than a unit (0.65/unit) because we then have to win either our half unit RL (+170) play for a +0.85 profit or our 1 unit Over 8.5 play for a 0.87/unit profit. And even if we're dead wrong here or Josh Johnson is off tonight, we can still bail out with the game going over.
Arizona - St. Louis 2 plays Total Risk 1 Unit
St. Louis (Wainwright) -1.5 Runs (+190) / Arizona (Haren) 7:15 ET 0.5/Unit
St. Louis 2 Arizona 4 Lose
Parlay: St. Louis (ML) -113 & Over 7 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.33 Units
St. Louis 2 Arizona 4 Lose
Purely a value spot here. Dan Haren has been practically un-hittable this season with a WHIP of less than a run (0.81) and a 2.01 ERA, but even the best have off days, and the way we're playing this game we stand to make 2.28 units for a 1 unit risk, a far cry from the 0.88/unit we'd make with just a STL ML (-113) play for the same 1 unit. Sure, more has to happen but as long as St. Louis doesn't win by exactly 1 run, this was the correct way to play the Cardinals today.
Over 8 Runs (-120) Houston (Hampton) / LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 10:10 ET 1 Unit
Houston 2 LA dodgers 5 Lose
Cleveland (Ohka) +104 / Seattle (Washburn) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Cleveland 1 Seattle3 Lose
Friday 7/17: -0.44/Unit (Volume: 3.25 Units)
Parlay: Pittsburgh (Maholm) +140 / San Francisco (Lincecum) & Over 7 Runs (-125) 7:05 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.66 Units
Pittsburgh 2 San Francisco 1 Lose
It's tough to go against Tim Lincecum as we feel there's no value here playing just the money line (+140), but we're playing the parlay looking for SF to score at least 3 runs. With 3 Giants' runs, a Pittsburgh win will mean a parlay win as well at an over 3:1 payout (or push with a 4-3 final resulting in a ML Pitt +140 win: +0.7/Unit).
Paul Maholm has turned in some solid performances this season and years past. His lifetime WHIP is 1.37 where as Lincecum's s 1.17, so if you believe in long term numbers, you know that Lincecum cannot continue on his current pace (0.62 WHIP last 3 starts: Only 8 Hits & 6 Walks in 22.2 innings). Of course tonight doesn't have to be his off night but in this spot, with such a low total and an opposing pitcher who knows how to keep his team in the game, it's worth a half unit shot at this price.
Milwaukee (Suppan) +118 / Cincinnati (Arroyo) 7:10 ET 1.25 Units
Milwaukee 0 Cincinnati 4 Lose
Bronson Arroyo has been anything but reliable this season. In his 5 starts prior to his last outing (a complete game 4 hit & no walk shutout at the Mets on 7/10), Arroyo pitched 25.2 innings allowing 42 hits, 15 walks, 8 HR's & 24 ER's for an 8.42 ERA and a 2.26 WHIP! After a pitcher goes in the tank like this, it takes more than 1 good outing to get back on track. Meanwhile, Milwaukee sends the ever solid Jeff Suppan to the hill. Suppan has been a bit shaky lately as well but he's been steady. In his last 5 starts Suppan hasn't been involved in any of the decisions and the Brewers are 2-3 in those games despite Suppan pitching well enough to win in 4 of the 5. We're looking for a solid outing from Suppan tonight as Arroyo continues trying to find his way.
Over 8.5 Runs (-115) Philadelphia (Hamels) / Florida (Nolasco) 7:10 ET 1.5 Units
Philadelphia 6 Florida 5 Winner
Thursday 7/16: -1.50 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)
San Diego (Gaudin) +116 / Colorado (Cook) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
San Diego 1 Colorado 10 Lose
Parlay: San Diego +116 & Under 7.5 Runs (-120) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.47 Units
San Diego 1 Colorado 10 Lose
Now that the break's over, there are certain teams in certain situations we'll be looking to be on and also some we'll be looking to go against. Tonight we have a good spot in going against the Rockies and playing on the Padres. First with Colorado, as we've been saying for the last couple of weeks, we feel their run is over. After winning 11 in a row and 17 of 18 between 6/04 - 6/22, the Rockies have been 10-8 since and showing signs of a team about to take a big turn for the worse. Remember, Colorado opened the season 20-32 before their recent surge and we feel they're prime for coming back down to earth. On the other hand, San Diego in an opposite situation. The Padres opened the season winning nine of twelve and also put together another 10 game winning streak in the latter part of May. Aside from those 2 runs, San Diego has taken their lumps as their overall record is 36-52. However, tonight the Padres send Chad Gaudin to the hill. Gaudin has been pitching very well of late despite getting hit for 6 ER's 2 starts ago (7/03 vs. LAA). In his 2 starts before that and his most recent start, Gaudin's WHIP is just 0.65 (23.2 Innings Pitched, 8 Hits & 7 Walks). You'll remember that we were on the Padres in Gaudin's last start (7/08 @ Arizona) for a parlay of SD +150 & Under 8.5 Runs (0.5/Unit to win 2 units). SD took a 2-1 lead to the bottom of the 8th as Gaudin went 6.2 innings giving up just 3 hits and 1 run, but the bullpen got shelled and the D'Backs went on to win 6-2. We'll take our chances with situations like that every night of the week. We expect another strong performance out of Chad Gaudin tonight as we stand to make 2.63 units for our 1.5 unit risk. Even if the game fails to stay under this low number, we'll still pick up 0.66/Unit with a Padre win.
No Plays: All Star Break