2009 MLB Results
Click here for full season results
Week: 7/06 - 7/12
+2.18 Units (Volume: 28.50 Units)
Sunday 7/12: +0.20/Unit (Volume: 3.00 Units)
San Diego (Correia) +120/ San Francisco (Zito) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
San Diego 10 San Francisco 4 Winner
Oakland - Tampa Bay 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Tampa Bay (Shields) -1.5 Runs (+110) / Oakland (Anderson) 1:35 ET Risk 0.5/Unit
Tampa Bay 3 Oakland 7 Lose
Parlay: Tampa Bay (ML) -185 & Over 8 (-120) Runs Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.92/Unit
Tampa Bay 3 Oakland 7 Lose
Best of both worlds here as a split will net a profit. Of course it all hinges on the Rays winning the game, but a 1 unit play on TB (ML -185) only yields a 0.55/Unit return where as the way we're playing it has the possible return of nearly triple that (1.47 Units) and both the RL & over plays are dependant on each other. And if Tampa winds up winning a high scoring 1 run game, we'll make almost as much (+0.42/Unit) as just the ML play would have made us (0.55/Unit). The only outcome to avoid here is a TB low scoring 1 run game as we'll lose a unit instead of making 0.55, but the extra risk is worth the added value.
Under 9 Runs (-110) NY Yankees(Sabathia) / LA Angels (Lackey) 3:35 ET 1 Unit
NY Yankees 4 LA Angels 5 PUSH
Saturday 7/11: +0.18/Unit (Volume: 7.25 Units)
Parlay: Philadelphia (Hamels) -260/ Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) & Under 9 Runs (-110) 7:05 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 1.64 Units
Philadelphia 8 Pittsburgh 7 Lose
After losing his last 3 starts, Cole Hamels finally broke out of his rut on the 6th going 7 innings and allowing just 3 hits, no walks and 1 ER. We look for Hamels to feed off of that solid performance and shut down the offensively inept Pittsburgh line up (just 12 runs in their last 6 games!) which makes this parlay with the under really the only way to play this game. We're risking 1 unit to win 1.64 units this way. A 1 unit risk on the ML (-260) only yields 0.38/Unit, and a 1 unit risk on the RL -1.5 Runs (-125) still only yields less than a unit (0.80/Unit). So if we're correct and Hamels pitches another gem and the game stays under, we will have successfully turned a -260 favorite into a +164 dog.
Under 7.5 Runs (-120) Cincinnati (Cueto) / NY Mets (Santana) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Cincinnati 0 NY Mets 4 Winner
Atlanta (Jurrijens) Even / Colorado (Marquis) 8:10 ET 1.5 Units
Atlanta 4 Colorado 3 Winner
As we've been saying lately, Colorado has been getting way too many breaks going their way and tonight they face the very solid Jair Jurrijens.
Baltimore (Hill) +108 / Toronto (Romero) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Baltimore 4 Toronto 3 Winner
Parlay: Kansas City (Meche) +160/ Boston (Smoltz) & Under 9 Runs (-105) 7:10 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.04 Units
Kansas City 9 Boston 15 Lose
Smoltz is STILL being over priced as far as we're concerned. Gil Meche has had a few rough outings of late himself, but it's not out of the question for Meche to finally break out of his funk tonight against a John Smoltz who is trying to find his way again. We feel it's just a matter of time before Smoltz returns to his earlier form of years past, but until then he must continue to pay his dues. Better numbers tonight but a loss in the end.
Texas (Millwood) Even / Seattle (Washburn) 10:10 ET 2 Units
Texas 1 Seattle 4 Lose
Texas has been playing exceptional ball lately winning 8 of their last 10 to take over 1st place in the AL west. Tonight the Rangers send Kevin Millwood to the hill to face Jarrod Washburn. Millwood got shelled in his last outing (7/06 at LAA) for 9 ER's in 5 innings of work while Washburn is coming off of a 1 hit complete game shutout of Baltimore on the 6th. But in his 2 starts prior, Washburn pitched a total of 13 innings giving up 14 hits, 2 walks, 4 HR's & 6 ER's, so he's been far from perfect of late. After losing to these Mariner's and Felix Hernandez on Thursday, Texas got right back on track last night winning 6-4 behind Scott Feldman and we look for them to continue tonight as Kevin Millwood gets back on track.
Friday 7/10: +3.45 Units (Volume: 4.00 Units)
Thursday 7/09: +0.10 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)
Cincinnati +140/ Philadelphia (Moyer) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Cincinnati 6 Philadelphia 9 Lose
We're getting to the half way point of the season and Jaime Moyer is starting to show signs of fatigue. He's only thrown 87 & 82 pitches in his last 2 starts compared to 100+ in 6 of his prior 7. At 46 you have to question just how much Moyer has left. He's gotten rocked several times this season as his ERA reflects (5.72) and his WHIP is also a bloated 1.47. It's amazing that the Phillie's have a winning record in Moyer's starts (9-7) and we look for the gap to close tonight.
Over 9 Runs (-125) Atlanta (Hanson) / Colorado (Cook) 8:40 ET 2 Units
Atlanta 6 Colorado 7 Winner
We've faded Atlanta's Tommy Hanson several times this season (the most recent on 7/04 with Washington and John Lannan +105 (1.5 Units)... Wash 5 Atlanta 3 Winner) citing that Hanson's overall numbers make no sense. Here's our write-up from that game:
Like we told you last Sunday when we were on Boston over the Braves and Tommy Hanson, it's just a matter of time before Hanson's W/L record catches up to his overall numbers. The Braves are a perfect 5-0 in Hanson's starts this season but take a look at the numbers: He has a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 2.48... that's near impossible to do! That means he allows 12.69 base runners (via walk or hit) per 9 innings yet only allows 2.48 runs per 9 innings. And if you take his first start out of the equation (an 8-7 Atlanta win with Hanson giving up 6 hits and 6 ER's), in his 4 latest starts Hanson has pitched 23 innings giving up 18 hits and 16 walks but has only allowed a total of 2 runs!! So THAT"S a WHIP of 1.48 and an ERA of 1.28.... get the picture? Hanson's allowed an average of about 1 and a half base runners per inning over his last 4 starts (34 base runners... 23 innings) and has allowed just 2 to cross the plate... When the bottom falls out it's going to be ugly!
Of course we have to be concerned because today the Braves are playing the team with the worst record in baseball, but John Lannan as pitched well (5-5, 1.35 WHIP & 3.45 ERA) and as we've said before, even bad teams in MLB win 50 games in a season. END
In that game, Hanson actually DID have another quality outing (7 IP, 3 hits & 1 walk) but he got a bad deal from the bullpen. This is usually how the levelling off process starts... with a bad break. And like we said in the Washington write-up, "when the bottom falls out it's going to be ugly!"
We're on the Over here as opposed to Colorado because we also have issues with the breaks the Rockies have been getting. Their run is now 25 out of 32. After losing 4 of 6 last week, they just rattled off another series sweep of Washington (2 by a single run). We'd rather lay the same price on the Over 9 (-125) here as we would with Colorado to win (-123).
Parlay: Texas (Hunter) +165 / Seattle (Hernandez) & Under 8 Runs (-110) 10:10 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.03 Units
Texas 1 Seattle 3 Lose
The Rangers have taken over 1st place in the AL West by beating the Angels 4 out of 6 over the last 9 days and sweeping the Rays at home over the holiday weekend. Tonight Texas faces Seattle and Felix Hernandez. We're not expecting Texas to get much off of the Mariners' ace, so if Tommy Hunter can keep it close, it's anyone's game with the way Texas has been hitting (avg 6.7 runs per game last 9). Meanwhile, the M's have lost 3 of their last 4 so we're on the hot bats over the hot pitcher in a +406 position.
Wednesday 7/08: -3.00 Units (Volume: 5.00 Units)
Over 8 Runs (-110) Pittsburgh (Morton) / Houston (Rodriguez) 2:05 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 0 Houston 5 Lose
Parlay: Washington (Detwiler) +162 / Colorado (De La Rosa) & Under 10.5 Runs (Even) 3:10 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.12 units
Washington 4 Colorado 10 Lose
As you know we've been on the Nationals several times over the last couple of weeks as we feel they are an improving team and the line maker has yet to adjust thus leaving plenty of value. Most recent, we had Washington Monday night for (2) half unit plays: 0.5U ML +180 (to win 0.9 U) & a parlay of Wash +180 & Under 10.5 Runs (to win 2.37 U) and it came down to being 1 hit way from winning 3.27 units instead of losing 1 unit (the Nats had the bases loaded in the 8th inning down 0-1). Well take our chances in situations like that every night of the week!
Tuesday 7/07: +1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Under 7.5 Runs (Even) St. Louis (Wainwright) / Milwaukee (Gallardo) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 5 Milwaukee 0 Winner
NO PLAY: (Pitching Change)
Chicago Cubs (Dempster) Even / Atlanta (Vazquez) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
(Zambrano replaces Dempster)
Monday 7/06: +0.25/Unit (Volume: 6.25 Units)
New York Yankees (Pettitte) -145 / Toronto (Romero) 1:05 ET 1.25 Units
NY Yankees 6 Toronto 7 Lose
Cincinnati - Philadelphia 2 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
Philadelphia (Hamel) -155 / Cincinnati (Cueto) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 22 Cincinatti 1 Winner
Over 9 Runs (+105) Cincinnati / Philadelphia 1 Unit
Philadelphia 22 Cincinatti 1 Winner
We stand to make 1.70 units for our 2 units risked. We'll play it safe here and look for the Phillies to tag Cueto for at least 4 runs which will cut our exposure from 2 units down to 1 unit (4 Philly runs means the only way for the Phils to lose is with the total at least pushing (9)). Cueto is coming off of a 6 inning 1 hit outing on the 1st against Arizona which the Reds won 1-0. In his 2 previous starts though, Cueto pitched a combined 10.2 innings giving up 15 hits, 3 walks & 10 ER's...
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Atlanta (Jurrijens) / Chicago Cubs (Wells) 7:05 Et 1 Unit
Atlanta 2 Chicago Cubs 4 Lose
Washington - Colorado 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Washington (Stammen) +180 / Colorado (Marquis) 8:40 ET 0.5/Unit
Washington 0 Colorado 1 Lose
Parlay: Washington +180 & Under 10.5 Runs (+105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.37 Units
Washington 0 Colorado 1 Lose
Baseball's a game of streaks and rhythm. The Rockies had a fantastic run last month as they won 11 in a row and 20 of 23. They were winning games they really should have lost but that's what happens when a team gets into a groove. But when it ends, it ends and all the breaks they got during the good run seem to go against them. Colorado has now lost 4 of their last 6 including (2) one run games, most recently their lost yesterday at home to the D'Backs, a game the Rockies led 3-0 in the 6th inning.
Today Colorado is home against the "lowly" Nationals, winners of just 24 games this season, but let's take a closer look here. Besides the tide turning on Colorado's wave, Washington is actually gaining momentum and confidence. They may b 24-55 on the season(.303), but they're on an 8-9 (.471) run including winning back to back series (AT the Yankees and at home against Toronto), and the Nationals just took this past weekend series over Atlanta with their 5-3 win yesterday. They can't change what happened earlier in the season that caused them to start so poorly, but this is now a team believing in themselves.
Also remember that today's Washington starter, Craig Stammen, went into Yankee Stadium on 6/18 and beat Joba Chamberlain and the powerful NY lineup 3-0! He went 6 and a third innings giving up just 6 hits, no walks and no runs! His overall numbers aren't terrible either. Despite a high EA (5.44 which is due to a couple of bad outings) his WHIP is just 1.28. He also has good control. Stammen has only walked 10 in 45 innings... that's 2 per nine innings.
So we'll take a 1 unit shot here with the possibility of winning 3.27 units. We don't thing the Nats will get much off of Marquis anyway so we like the layout of these plays with just a 1 unit risk.
Oakland (Anderson) +180 / Boston (Smoltz) 7:10 Et 1 Unit
Oakland 6 Boston 0 Winner
Cant see John Smoltz getting this much respect yet in just his 3rd game back since June of 2008. In his first outing, Smoltz got smoked by Washington for 5 ER's in 5 innings of work and most recently Smoltz did pitch well but only went 4 innings and 52 pitches (on 6/30 at Baltimore). We'll grab this hefty price for a unit.
Week: 4/06 - 4/12
Week: 4/13 - 4/19
Week: 4/20 - 4/26
Week: 4/27 - 5/03
Week: 5/04 - 5/10
Week: 5/11 - 5/17
Week: 5/18 - 5/24
Week: 5/24 - 5/31
Week: 6/01 - 6/07
Week: 6/08 - 6/14
Week: 6/14 - 6/21
Week: 6/21 - 6/28
Week: 6/29 - 7/05
Week: 7/06 - 7/12
Click here for full season results
Week: 7/06 - 7/12
+2.18 Units (Volume: 28.50 Units)
Sunday 7/12: +0.20/Unit (Volume: 3.00 Units)
San Diego (Correia) +120/ San Francisco (Zito) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
San Diego 10 San Francisco 4 Winner
Oakland - Tampa Bay 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Tampa Bay (Shields) -1.5 Runs (+110) / Oakland (Anderson) 1:35 ET Risk 0.5/Unit
Tampa Bay 3 Oakland 7 Lose
Parlay: Tampa Bay (ML) -185 & Over 8 (-120) Runs Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.92/Unit
Tampa Bay 3 Oakland 7 Lose
Best of both worlds here as a split will net a profit. Of course it all hinges on the Rays winning the game, but a 1 unit play on TB (ML -185) only yields a 0.55/Unit return where as the way we're playing it has the possible return of nearly triple that (1.47 Units) and both the RL & over plays are dependant on each other. And if Tampa winds up winning a high scoring 1 run game, we'll make almost as much (+0.42/Unit) as just the ML play would have made us (0.55/Unit). The only outcome to avoid here is a TB low scoring 1 run game as we'll lose a unit instead of making 0.55, but the extra risk is worth the added value.
Under 9 Runs (-110) NY Yankees(Sabathia) / LA Angels (Lackey) 3:35 ET 1 Unit
NY Yankees 4 LA Angels 5 PUSH
Saturday 7/11: +0.18/Unit (Volume: 7.25 Units)
Parlay: Philadelphia (Hamels) -260/ Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) & Under 9 Runs (-110) 7:05 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 1.64 Units
Philadelphia 8 Pittsburgh 7 Lose
After losing his last 3 starts, Cole Hamels finally broke out of his rut on the 6th going 7 innings and allowing just 3 hits, no walks and 1 ER. We look for Hamels to feed off of that solid performance and shut down the offensively inept Pittsburgh line up (just 12 runs in their last 6 games!) which makes this parlay with the under really the only way to play this game. We're risking 1 unit to win 1.64 units this way. A 1 unit risk on the ML (-260) only yields 0.38/Unit, and a 1 unit risk on the RL -1.5 Runs (-125) still only yields less than a unit (0.80/Unit). So if we're correct and Hamels pitches another gem and the game stays under, we will have successfully turned a -260 favorite into a +164 dog.
Under 7.5 Runs (-120) Cincinnati (Cueto) / NY Mets (Santana) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Cincinnati 0 NY Mets 4 Winner
Atlanta (Jurrijens) Even / Colorado (Marquis) 8:10 ET 1.5 Units
Atlanta 4 Colorado 3 Winner
As we've been saying lately, Colorado has been getting way too many breaks going their way and tonight they face the very solid Jair Jurrijens.
Baltimore (Hill) +108 / Toronto (Romero) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Baltimore 4 Toronto 3 Winner
Parlay: Kansas City (Meche) +160/ Boston (Smoltz) & Under 9 Runs (-105) 7:10 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.04 Units
Kansas City 9 Boston 15 Lose
Smoltz is STILL being over priced as far as we're concerned. Gil Meche has had a few rough outings of late himself, but it's not out of the question for Meche to finally break out of his funk tonight against a John Smoltz who is trying to find his way again. We feel it's just a matter of time before Smoltz returns to his earlier form of years past, but until then he must continue to pay his dues. Better numbers tonight but a loss in the end.
Texas (Millwood) Even / Seattle (Washburn) 10:10 ET 2 Units
Texas 1 Seattle 4 Lose
Texas has been playing exceptional ball lately winning 8 of their last 10 to take over 1st place in the AL west. Tonight the Rangers send Kevin Millwood to the hill to face Jarrod Washburn. Millwood got shelled in his last outing (7/06 at LAA) for 9 ER's in 5 innings of work while Washburn is coming off of a 1 hit complete game shutout of Baltimore on the 6th. But in his 2 starts prior, Washburn pitched a total of 13 innings giving up 14 hits, 2 walks, 4 HR's & 6 ER's, so he's been far from perfect of late. After losing to these Mariner's and Felix Hernandez on Thursday, Texas got right back on track last night winning 6-4 behind Scott Feldman and we look for them to continue tonight as Kevin Millwood gets back on track.
Friday 7/10: +3.45 Units (Volume: 4.00 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Washington (Olsen) / Houston (Oswalt) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Washington 5 Houston 6 Winner
Over 7.5 Runs (Even) Florida (Nolasco) / Arizona (Haren) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Florida 0 Arizona 8 Winner
Minnesota (Blackburn) -123 / Chicago WS (Danks) 8:10 ET 2 Units
Minnesota 6 Chicago WS 4 Winner
Thursday 7/09: +0.10 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)
Cincinnati +140/ Philadelphia (Moyer) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Cincinnati 6 Philadelphia 9 Lose
We're getting to the half way point of the season and Jaime Moyer is starting to show signs of fatigue. He's only thrown 87 & 82 pitches in his last 2 starts compared to 100+ in 6 of his prior 7. At 46 you have to question just how much Moyer has left. He's gotten rocked several times this season as his ERA reflects (5.72) and his WHIP is also a bloated 1.47. It's amazing that the Phillie's have a winning record in Moyer's starts (9-7) and we look for the gap to close tonight.
Over 9 Runs (-125) Atlanta (Hanson) / Colorado (Cook) 8:40 ET 2 Units
Atlanta 6 Colorado 7 Winner
We've faded Atlanta's Tommy Hanson several times this season (the most recent on 7/04 with Washington and John Lannan +105 (1.5 Units)... Wash 5 Atlanta 3 Winner) citing that Hanson's overall numbers make no sense. Here's our write-up from that game:
Like we told you last Sunday when we were on Boston over the Braves and Tommy Hanson, it's just a matter of time before Hanson's W/L record catches up to his overall numbers. The Braves are a perfect 5-0 in Hanson's starts this season but take a look at the numbers: He has a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 2.48... that's near impossible to do! That means he allows 12.69 base runners (via walk or hit) per 9 innings yet only allows 2.48 runs per 9 innings. And if you take his first start out of the equation (an 8-7 Atlanta win with Hanson giving up 6 hits and 6 ER's), in his 4 latest starts Hanson has pitched 23 innings giving up 18 hits and 16 walks but has only allowed a total of 2 runs!! So THAT"S a WHIP of 1.48 and an ERA of 1.28.... get the picture? Hanson's allowed an average of about 1 and a half base runners per inning over his last 4 starts (34 base runners... 23 innings) and has allowed just 2 to cross the plate... When the bottom falls out it's going to be ugly!
Of course we have to be concerned because today the Braves are playing the team with the worst record in baseball, but John Lannan as pitched well (5-5, 1.35 WHIP & 3.45 ERA) and as we've said before, even bad teams in MLB win 50 games in a season. END
In that game, Hanson actually DID have another quality outing (7 IP, 3 hits & 1 walk) but he got a bad deal from the bullpen. This is usually how the levelling off process starts... with a bad break. And like we said in the Washington write-up, "when the bottom falls out it's going to be ugly!"
We're on the Over here as opposed to Colorado because we also have issues with the breaks the Rockies have been getting. Their run is now 25 out of 32. After losing 4 of 6 last week, they just rattled off another series sweep of Washington (2 by a single run). We'd rather lay the same price on the Over 9 (-125) here as we would with Colorado to win (-123).
Parlay: Texas (Hunter) +165 / Seattle (Hernandez) & Under 8 Runs (-110) 10:10 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.03 Units
Texas 1 Seattle 3 Lose
The Rangers have taken over 1st place in the AL West by beating the Angels 4 out of 6 over the last 9 days and sweeping the Rays at home over the holiday weekend. Tonight Texas faces Seattle and Felix Hernandez. We're not expecting Texas to get much off of the Mariners' ace, so if Tommy Hunter can keep it close, it's anyone's game with the way Texas has been hitting (avg 6.7 runs per game last 9). Meanwhile, the M's have lost 3 of their last 4 so we're on the hot bats over the hot pitcher in a +406 position.
Wednesday 7/08: -3.00 Units (Volume: 5.00 Units)
Over 8 Runs (-110) Pittsburgh (Morton) / Houston (Rodriguez) 2:05 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 0 Houston 5 Lose
Parlay: Washington (Detwiler) +162 / Colorado (De La Rosa) & Under 10.5 Runs (Even) 3:10 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.12 units
Washington 4 Colorado 10 Lose
As you know we've been on the Nationals several times over the last couple of weeks as we feel they are an improving team and the line maker has yet to adjust thus leaving plenty of value. Most recent, we had Washington Monday night for (2) half unit plays: 0.5U ML +180 (to win 0.9 U) & a parlay of Wash +180 & Under 10.5 Runs (to win 2.37 U) and it came down to being 1 hit way from winning 3.27 units instead of losing 1 unit (the Nats had the bases loaded in the 8th inning down 0-1). Well take our chances in situations like that every night of the week!
Tonight the Nats are getting +162 but there is not sufficient value to warrant a side play. In fact, despite the recent "surge" by Washington (winning 8 of their last 19), a 1 unit risk in each of those games is just a hair over break even (+0.19/Unit). But by playing the overall picture here, we're turning a +162 dog into a +424 dog. Sure, now we have to also win the Under to cash but we feel confident that De La Rosa will hold Washington to 5 runs or less so if we're right, this is the correct way to play this game regardless if we win or lose. It would take a risk of 1.3 units to win the same 2.12 units (a side play only on Wash +162) that our half unit parlay will yield and the game can't go over with Washington winning without Washington scoring more than 5.
Parlay: San Diego (Gaudin) +150/ Arizona (Scherzer) & Under 8.5 Runs (Even) 3:40 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.00 Units
San Diego 2 Arizona 6 Lose
Nice value here as we're getting Chad Gaudin +150. In his 2 starts prior to his last start (where he got roughed up a bit: 7 hits, 4 walks & 7 ER's), Gaudin pitched a total of 15 innings giving up just 5 hits, 3 walks & 2 ER's including an 8 inning one hit shutout on 6/28 at Texas. So if Gaudin can return to that recent form this afternoon, we'll be in a great position to cash a +400 parlay (+2.00 units for our half unit risked).
Florida (Volstad) Even / San Francisco (Sadowski) 3:45 ET 1 Unit
Florida 7 San Francisco 0 Winner
Over 9.5 Runs (-105) NY Yankees (Burnett) / Minnesota (Swarzak) 8:10 ET 2 Units
NY Yankees 4 Minnesota 3 Lose
Tuesday 7/07: +1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Under 7.5 Runs (Even) St. Louis (Wainwright) / Milwaukee (Gallardo) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 5 Milwaukee 0 Winner
NO PLAY: (Pitching Change)
Chicago Cubs (Dempster) Even / Atlanta (Vazquez) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
(Zambrano replaces Dempster)
Monday 7/06: +0.25/Unit (Volume: 6.25 Units)
New York Yankees (Pettitte) -145 / Toronto (Romero) 1:05 ET 1.25 Units
NY Yankees 6 Toronto 7 Lose
Cincinnati - Philadelphia 2 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
Philadelphia (Hamel) -155 / Cincinnati (Cueto) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 22 Cincinatti 1 Winner
Over 9 Runs (+105) Cincinnati / Philadelphia 1 Unit
Philadelphia 22 Cincinatti 1 Winner
We stand to make 1.70 units for our 2 units risked. We'll play it safe here and look for the Phillies to tag Cueto for at least 4 runs which will cut our exposure from 2 units down to 1 unit (4 Philly runs means the only way for the Phils to lose is with the total at least pushing (9)). Cueto is coming off of a 6 inning 1 hit outing on the 1st against Arizona which the Reds won 1-0. In his 2 previous starts though, Cueto pitched a combined 10.2 innings giving up 15 hits, 3 walks & 10 ER's...
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Atlanta (Jurrijens) / Chicago Cubs (Wells) 7:05 Et 1 Unit
Atlanta 2 Chicago Cubs 4 Lose
Washington - Colorado 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Washington (Stammen) +180 / Colorado (Marquis) 8:40 ET 0.5/Unit
Washington 0 Colorado 1 Lose
Parlay: Washington +180 & Under 10.5 Runs (+105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.37 Units
Washington 0 Colorado 1 Lose
Baseball's a game of streaks and rhythm. The Rockies had a fantastic run last month as they won 11 in a row and 20 of 23. They were winning games they really should have lost but that's what happens when a team gets into a groove. But when it ends, it ends and all the breaks they got during the good run seem to go against them. Colorado has now lost 4 of their last 6 including (2) one run games, most recently their lost yesterday at home to the D'Backs, a game the Rockies led 3-0 in the 6th inning.
Today Colorado is home against the "lowly" Nationals, winners of just 24 games this season, but let's take a closer look here. Besides the tide turning on Colorado's wave, Washington is actually gaining momentum and confidence. They may b 24-55 on the season(.303), but they're on an 8-9 (.471) run including winning back to back series (AT the Yankees and at home against Toronto), and the Nationals just took this past weekend series over Atlanta with their 5-3 win yesterday. They can't change what happened earlier in the season that caused them to start so poorly, but this is now a team believing in themselves.
Also remember that today's Washington starter, Craig Stammen, went into Yankee Stadium on 6/18 and beat Joba Chamberlain and the powerful NY lineup 3-0! He went 6 and a third innings giving up just 6 hits, no walks and no runs! His overall numbers aren't terrible either. Despite a high EA (5.44 which is due to a couple of bad outings) his WHIP is just 1.28. He also has good control. Stammen has only walked 10 in 45 innings... that's 2 per nine innings.
So we'll take a 1 unit shot here with the possibility of winning 3.27 units. We don't thing the Nats will get much off of Marquis anyway so we like the layout of these plays with just a 1 unit risk.
Oakland (Anderson) +180 / Boston (Smoltz) 7:10 Et 1 Unit
Oakland 6 Boston 0 Winner
Cant see John Smoltz getting this much respect yet in just his 3rd game back since June of 2008. In his first outing, Smoltz got smoked by Washington for 5 ER's in 5 innings of work and most recently Smoltz did pitch well but only went 4 innings and 52 pitches (on 6/30 at Baltimore). We'll grab this hefty price for a unit.
Week: 4/06 - 4/12
Week: 4/13 - 4/19
Week: 4/20 - 4/26
Week: 4/27 - 5/03
Week: 5/04 - 5/10
Week: 5/11 - 5/17
Week: 5/18 - 5/24
Week: 5/24 - 5/31
Week: 6/01 - 6/07
Week: 6/08 - 6/14
Week: 6/14 - 6/21
Week: 6/21 - 6/28
Week: 6/29 - 7/05
Week: 7/06 - 7/12