2009 MLB Results
Click here for full season results
Week: 6/29 - 7/05
+7.31 Units (Volume: 28.25 Units)
Sunday 7/05: -3.00 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-115) Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) / Florida (Nolasco) 1:10 ET 1.75 Units
Pittsburgh 0 Florida 5 Lose
Colorado (Jimenez) -108 / Arizona (Haren) 3:10 ET 1.25 Units
Colorado 3 Arizona 4 Lose
Saturday 7/04: +2.41 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
Washington (Lannan) +105 / Atlanta (Hanson) 1:05 ET 1.5 Units
Washington 5 Atlanta 3 Winner
Like we told you last Sunday when we were on Boston over the Braves and Tommy Hanson, it's just a matter of time before Hanson's W/L record catches up to his overall numbers. The Braves are a perfect 5-0 in Hanson's starts this season but take a look at the numbers: He has a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 2.48... that's near impossible to do! That means he allows 12.69 base runners (via walk or hit) per 9 innings yet only allows 2.48 runs per 9 innings. And if you take his first start out of the equation (an 8-7 Atlanta win with Hanson giving up 6 hits and 6 ER's), in his 4 latest starts Hanson has pitched 23 innings giving up 18 hits and 16 walks but has only allowed a total of 2 runs!! So THAT"S a WHIP of 1.48 and an ERA of 1.28.... get the picture? Hanson's allowed an average of about 1 and a half base runners per inning over his last 4 starts (34 base runners... 23 innings) and has allowed just 2 to cross the plate... When the bottom falls out it's going to be ugly!
Of course we have to be concerned because today the Braves are playing the team with the worst record in baseball, but John Lannan as pitched well (5-5, 1.35 WHIP & 3.45 ERA) and as we've said before, even bad teams in MLB win 50 games in a season.
Over 7 Runs (-120) Houston (Ortiz) / San Francisco (Lincecum) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
Houston 0 San Francisco 9 Winner
Under 9 Runs (Even) Toronto(Halladay) / NY Yankees (Wang) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 5 NY Yankees 6 Lose
Over 8.5 Runs (Even) Chicago WS (Floyd) / Kansas City(Hochever) 1:10 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 4 Kansas City 6 Winner
Friday 7/03: +3.14 Units (Volume: 8.50 Units)
Over 9.5 Runs (-105) Toronto (Tallet) / NY Yankees (Burnett) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 2 NY Yankees Lose
Under 9.5 Runs (-125) Arizona (Scherzer) / Colorado (De La Rosa) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Arizona 0 Colorado 5 Winner
LA Dodgers (Kuroda) -135 / San Diego (Gaudin) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 6 San Diego 3 Winner
Parlay: LA Dodgers -135 & Over 7 Runs (-125) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.04 Units
LA Dodgers 6 San Diego 3 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Houston (Paulino) / San Francisco (Sadowski) 10:15 ET 1 Unit
Houston 0 San Francisco 13 Winner
Seattle - Boston: 3 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
Seattle (Hernandez) +118 / Boston (Wakefield) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Seattle 7 Boston 6 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Seattle / Boston 0.5/Unit
Seattle 7 Boston 6 Winner
Parlay: Seattle +118 & Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.14 Units
Seattle 7 Boston 6 Winner
We're going to show you the right time to play "franchise" pitchers. Last night we were on Seattle over the Yanks on the road in Yankee Stadium going against CC Sabathia citing the huge overlay demanded by books to back NY with their newest pitching sensation and we went on to explain how we were fully ready to lose our 1 unit of risk but the price, the way we laid it out, was too good to pass up. We wound up making 3.47 units on our 1 unit. Tonight we'll stay on the Mariners but in a much different role. Seattle starts their ace Felix Hernandez AND HE'S A DOG! OK, the Sox are sending Tim Wakefield to the hill but so what? Wakefield has been known to get hammered from time to time
Let's look at the difference in team contribution between CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez. As we told you yesterday, the Yankees are 8-8 in CC's 16 starts and with a 1 unit risk on each of his starts, a bettor is down 3.98 units (-25%/volume), but in the case of Felix, the M's are 11-5 in his starts and a 1 unit risk on each yielded a PROFIT of 4.76 units (+29.75% on monies put into action)... BIG difference!
We're on this game for a couple of reasons. First, as stated, Wakefield has had some very shaky outings this season but has managed to duck and dodge and come away with a very good record for his numbers. he's 10-3 with a 1.36 WHIP and a 4.18 ERA... too much of being in the right place at the right time and we all know that's not something you want to have to depend on. So with Wakefield coming off of a 6 inning start giving up just 3 hits and 1 walk, we feel tonight is his time to get hit and hit hard. Although Hernandez has pitched close to perfect ball this past month, he's also thrown alot of pitches (115 avg last 3 starts), so we can't see him going past the 6th or 7th tonight.
So we're at risk here for a total of 2 units with a plus side of 2.72 units. A Seattle win guarantees us a profit here but we need the over to really get paid. We can also cut our exposure to 1.1 units with the Seattle scoring 4 runs because then the only way for Seattle to get beat is with the game going over.
Tampa Bay (Kazmir) -140 / Texas (Hunter) 8:35 ET 1 Units
Tampa 1 Texas 3 Lose
We're picking back up with the Rays tonight. We were on them a couple of times this week against the Blue Jays citing that this is a team in a groove winning 9 of their last 11. The gap in the AL east is tightening as Tampa is just 5 games out of 1st behind the Yanks and Boston.
Thursday 7/02: +2.47 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Philadelphia (Happ) +126 / Atlanta (Vazquez) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 2 Atlanta 5 Lose
Seattle (Vargas) +1.5 Runs (+120)/ NY Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Seattle 8 NY Yankees 4 Winner
Parlay: Seattle (ML) +260 & Over 9 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.87 Units
Seattle 8 NY Yankees 4 Winner
CC Sabathia is one of the biggest betting flops this season. The Yankees are .500 in his starts (8-8) yet as a team they're 13 games ABOVE .500 (45-32). So with a 1 unit risk on CC's 16 starts, you're a 3.98 unit LOSER (-24.9% of the volume of money put into action!) There is an obvious error in the linemaker's assessment of Sabathia. We believe the cause for this is the same thing that got CC his huge contract in New York: the second half of last season with Milwaukee. In his 7 and a half seasons with Cleveland, Sabathia was 106-71 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. In the second half of last season, after being dealt to Milwaukee, CC was 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the Brewers. He was virtually un-hittable. So of course the Yankees had to go out and get him (for a sick amount of money) and what happened? His numbers are right back to his Cleveland days (7-4 3.55 ERA 1.09 WHIP). Don't get us wrong, these are solid numbers but Sabathia continues to get priced based on his short Milwaukee stint. Perhaps there was a certain chemistry with the Brewers and perhaps had CC stayed there he would have continued at the same pace. We'll never know... But in the meantime, we'll grab the value when we can. There's a better chance than not that we'll lose a unit here, but not enough to warrant the overall position we're in: we're getting nearly 3.5:1 on our money and can even escape with a slight profit in a 1 run loss. Also realize that with 4 NY runs scored, a Seattle win will cause the game to go over (or pushing the total) which makes our parlay the correct play as we're getting +573 as opposed to +260 on just Seattle to win. It's not always about how much you win... sometime's it's about how little you risk.
Wednesday 7/01: -1.59 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-105) Tampa Bay (Shields) / Toronto (Romero) 1:05 ET 1.5 Unit
Tampa Bay 0 Toronto 5 Lose
Over 9 Runs (-110) Boston (Beckett) / Baltimore (Bergesen) 1:35 ET 1 Unit
Boston 6 baltimore 5 Winner
Pittsburgh (Vasquez) +125 / Chicago Cubs (Wells) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 1 Chicgo Cubs 4 Lose
Tuesday 6/30: +0.43/Unit Units (Volume: 2.75 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Chicago WS (Richard) / Cleveland (Lee) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 11 Cleveland 4 (7 Innings) NO ACTION
Game shortened due to rain in the 7th inning. Game needs to complete for Totals action.
Tampa Bay (Garza) -122 / Toronto (Richmond) 7:05 ET 1.75 Units
Tampa Bay 4 Toronto 1 Winner
As we said yesterday, this Rays team is in a groove. After beating Roy Halladay last night 4-1, the Rays have won 6 in a row and 8 of their last 9 and all of a sudden are making it a race in the AL east now only 5 games behind Boston and 1.5 games back of the Yankees.
Tonight Tampa sends the solid Matt Garza to the Hill. Garza is coming off an 8 inning 3 hitter on the 24th against Philly. He'll be facing Scott Richmond for Toronto who is still splitting his duties between starts and the bullpen. It's tough for a pitcher to get into a rhythm when bouncing back and forth. This is the first time Richmond will be starting 2 games in a row (without a relief appearance between starts) since 5/24. We're looking for the Rays to continue their climb in the east.
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Minnesota (Baker) / Kansas City (Bannister) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 2 Kansas City 1 Lose
Monday 6/29: +3.45 Units (Volume: 4.00 Units)
Milwaukee (Looper) -130 / NY Mets (Nieve) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Milwaukee 10 NY Mets 6 Winner
Colorado - LA Dodgers 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
LA Dodgers (Wolf) -1.5 Runs (+195) / Colorado (Jimenez) 10:10 ET 0.5/Unit
LA Dodgers 4 Colorado 2 Winner
Parlay: LA Dodgers (ML) -113 & Under 8.5 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.25 Units
LA Dodgers 4 Colorado 2 Winner
We're in a spot here to win over 2 units for our 1 unit risk. We're not expecting for either team to do much scoring with these 2 starters, so as long as LA doesn't win a high scoring 1 run game, this is the correct play value-wise. A split will give us either a 0.75/unit win or a very minimal loss (0.02/unit)
Tampa Bay (Niemann) +145 / Toronto (Halladay) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Tampa Bay 4 Toronto 1 Winner
This is Roy Halladay's first start since leaving a game against the Marlins on June 12th in the 4th inning with a strained groin. You'll remember we were on Florida in that game +200 parlayed to the Under (8 Runs) for a half unit to make 2.42 Units (almost 5:1 on our money). Ricky Nolasco was the Marlin starter in that game and we liked the fat odds and as long as Nolasco showed signs of his earlier form, we knew we had a very legit shot. (This was Ricky's 2nd game back after being sent to the minors after his May 22nd debacle getting shelled for 8 ER's in 2 innings... but we knew it was just a matter of time before he got back to the form that won him 15 games last season). Point is the game wound up going over because of Marlins' Cody Ross' 8th inning grand slam (the game was tied at 2 going to the 8th).
It's all about getting value. In that game with Florida on 6/12, Halladay was a -240 favorite against Ricky Nolasco... Why?... because of Halladay's recent performance (10-1, 2.53 ERA and a WHIP right around 1.00) going against Nolasco who was just getting back up from being sent down... But like we always say, you need to anticipate the normal ups and downs of quality pitchers to gain value. If Halladay & Nolasco faced off today, the line would be in the Halladay -160 range because Nolasco is back to his old form. Since (and including) that game in Toronto, Ricky pitched 18 innings in 3 starts giving up just 13 hits, 2 walks and 3 ER's while striking out 21. We were on the Marlins in all 3 of those games netting a total of 3.18 Units of profit, and that includes losing the half unit Toronto parlay. We had him on 6/18 against Boston in a rain shortened game so our run-line & total portions of our bets were no action (would have been winners) but we won our 1 unit Florida +180 play (2-1 F). Then we were on Nolasco again on 6/24 as we got him cheap again (-145) at home against the Orioles (5-2 F). We had Florida for 1 unit and a half unit parlay Florida & Under 9 (+1.19 Units). But now the value is gone with Nolasco... today he's laying close to 2 to 1 at home against Washington.
So what does this all mean? Halladay hasn't pitched in 17 days. Even if he's 100% from his injury, interruptions in a pitchers' rhythm more times than not cause sub par outings and/or bad breaks in general. Also look at who the Blue Jays are facing... A red hot Ray's team winners of 5 in a row. And once again, the Rays' starter, Jeff Niemann, has been a bit off of late in his overall numbers but Tampa Bay has won 10 of Niemann's 14 starts this season including his last 4... these are the signs of a team in a groove.
Minnesota (Blackburn) -135 / Kansas City (Hochever) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 2 Kansas City 4 Lose
Week: 4/06 - 4/12
Week: 4/13 - 4/19
Week: 4/20 - 4/26
Week: 4/27 - 5/03
Week: 5/04 - 5/10
Week: 5/11 - 5/17
Week: 5/18 - 5/24
Week: 5/24 - 5/31
Week: 6/01 - 6/07
Week: 6/08 - 6/14
Week: 6/14 - 6/21
Week: 6/21 - 6/28
Week: 6/29 - 7/05
Week: 7/06 - 7/12
Click here for full season results
Week: 6/29 - 7/05
+7.31 Units (Volume: 28.25 Units)
Sunday 7/05: -3.00 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-115) Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) / Florida (Nolasco) 1:10 ET 1.75 Units
Pittsburgh 0 Florida 5 Lose
Colorado (Jimenez) -108 / Arizona (Haren) 3:10 ET 1.25 Units
Colorado 3 Arizona 4 Lose
Saturday 7/04: +2.41 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
Washington (Lannan) +105 / Atlanta (Hanson) 1:05 ET 1.5 Units
Washington 5 Atlanta 3 Winner
Like we told you last Sunday when we were on Boston over the Braves and Tommy Hanson, it's just a matter of time before Hanson's W/L record catches up to his overall numbers. The Braves are a perfect 5-0 in Hanson's starts this season but take a look at the numbers: He has a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 2.48... that's near impossible to do! That means he allows 12.69 base runners (via walk or hit) per 9 innings yet only allows 2.48 runs per 9 innings. And if you take his first start out of the equation (an 8-7 Atlanta win with Hanson giving up 6 hits and 6 ER's), in his 4 latest starts Hanson has pitched 23 innings giving up 18 hits and 16 walks but has only allowed a total of 2 runs!! So THAT"S a WHIP of 1.48 and an ERA of 1.28.... get the picture? Hanson's allowed an average of about 1 and a half base runners per inning over his last 4 starts (34 base runners... 23 innings) and has allowed just 2 to cross the plate... When the bottom falls out it's going to be ugly!
Of course we have to be concerned because today the Braves are playing the team with the worst record in baseball, but John Lannan as pitched well (5-5, 1.35 WHIP & 3.45 ERA) and as we've said before, even bad teams in MLB win 50 games in a season.
Over 7 Runs (-120) Houston (Ortiz) / San Francisco (Lincecum) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
Houston 0 San Francisco 9 Winner
Under 9 Runs (Even) Toronto(Halladay) / NY Yankees (Wang) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 5 NY Yankees 6 Lose
Over 8.5 Runs (Even) Chicago WS (Floyd) / Kansas City(Hochever) 1:10 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 4 Kansas City 6 Winner
Friday 7/03: +3.14 Units (Volume: 8.50 Units)
Over 9.5 Runs (-105) Toronto (Tallet) / NY Yankees (Burnett) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 2 NY Yankees Lose
Under 9.5 Runs (-125) Arizona (Scherzer) / Colorado (De La Rosa) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Arizona 0 Colorado 5 Winner
LA Dodgers (Kuroda) -135 / San Diego (Gaudin) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 6 San Diego 3 Winner
Parlay: LA Dodgers -135 & Over 7 Runs (-125) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.04 Units
LA Dodgers 6 San Diego 3 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Houston (Paulino) / San Francisco (Sadowski) 10:15 ET 1 Unit
Houston 0 San Francisco 13 Winner
Seattle - Boston: 3 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
Seattle (Hernandez) +118 / Boston (Wakefield) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Seattle 7 Boston 6 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Seattle / Boston 0.5/Unit
Seattle 7 Boston 6 Winner
Parlay: Seattle +118 & Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.14 Units
Seattle 7 Boston 6 Winner
We're going to show you the right time to play "franchise" pitchers. Last night we were on Seattle over the Yanks on the road in Yankee Stadium going against CC Sabathia citing the huge overlay demanded by books to back NY with their newest pitching sensation and we went on to explain how we were fully ready to lose our 1 unit of risk but the price, the way we laid it out, was too good to pass up. We wound up making 3.47 units on our 1 unit. Tonight we'll stay on the Mariners but in a much different role. Seattle starts their ace Felix Hernandez AND HE'S A DOG! OK, the Sox are sending Tim Wakefield to the hill but so what? Wakefield has been known to get hammered from time to time
Let's look at the difference in team contribution between CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez. As we told you yesterday, the Yankees are 8-8 in CC's 16 starts and with a 1 unit risk on each of his starts, a bettor is down 3.98 units (-25%/volume), but in the case of Felix, the M's are 11-5 in his starts and a 1 unit risk on each yielded a PROFIT of 4.76 units (+29.75% on monies put into action)... BIG difference!
We're on this game for a couple of reasons. First, as stated, Wakefield has had some very shaky outings this season but has managed to duck and dodge and come away with a very good record for his numbers. he's 10-3 with a 1.36 WHIP and a 4.18 ERA... too much of being in the right place at the right time and we all know that's not something you want to have to depend on. So with Wakefield coming off of a 6 inning start giving up just 3 hits and 1 walk, we feel tonight is his time to get hit and hit hard. Although Hernandez has pitched close to perfect ball this past month, he's also thrown alot of pitches (115 avg last 3 starts), so we can't see him going past the 6th or 7th tonight.
So we're at risk here for a total of 2 units with a plus side of 2.72 units. A Seattle win guarantees us a profit here but we need the over to really get paid. We can also cut our exposure to 1.1 units with the Seattle scoring 4 runs because then the only way for Seattle to get beat is with the game going over.
Tampa Bay (Kazmir) -140 / Texas (Hunter) 8:35 ET 1 Units
Tampa 1 Texas 3 Lose
We're picking back up with the Rays tonight. We were on them a couple of times this week against the Blue Jays citing that this is a team in a groove winning 9 of their last 11. The gap in the AL east is tightening as Tampa is just 5 games out of 1st behind the Yanks and Boston.
Kansas City (Greinke) -145 / Chicago WS (Danks) 8:10 ET 1 Units
Kansas City 0 Chicago WS 5 Lose
Thursday 7/02: +2.47 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Philadelphia (Happ) +126 / Atlanta (Vazquez) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 2 Atlanta 5 Lose
Seattle (Vargas) +1.5 Runs (+120)/ NY Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Seattle 8 NY Yankees 4 Winner
Parlay: Seattle (ML) +260 & Over 9 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.87 Units
Seattle 8 NY Yankees 4 Winner
CC Sabathia is one of the biggest betting flops this season. The Yankees are .500 in his starts (8-8) yet as a team they're 13 games ABOVE .500 (45-32). So with a 1 unit risk on CC's 16 starts, you're a 3.98 unit LOSER (-24.9% of the volume of money put into action!) There is an obvious error in the linemaker's assessment of Sabathia. We believe the cause for this is the same thing that got CC his huge contract in New York: the second half of last season with Milwaukee. In his 7 and a half seasons with Cleveland, Sabathia was 106-71 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. In the second half of last season, after being dealt to Milwaukee, CC was 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the Brewers. He was virtually un-hittable. So of course the Yankees had to go out and get him (for a sick amount of money) and what happened? His numbers are right back to his Cleveland days (7-4 3.55 ERA 1.09 WHIP). Don't get us wrong, these are solid numbers but Sabathia continues to get priced based on his short Milwaukee stint. Perhaps there was a certain chemistry with the Brewers and perhaps had CC stayed there he would have continued at the same pace. We'll never know... But in the meantime, we'll grab the value when we can. There's a better chance than not that we'll lose a unit here, but not enough to warrant the overall position we're in: we're getting nearly 3.5:1 on our money and can even escape with a slight profit in a 1 run loss. Also realize that with 4 NY runs scored, a Seattle win will cause the game to go over (or pushing the total) which makes our parlay the correct play as we're getting +573 as opposed to +260 on just Seattle to win. It's not always about how much you win... sometime's it's about how little you risk.
Wednesday 7/01: -1.59 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-105) Tampa Bay (Shields) / Toronto (Romero) 1:05 ET 1.5 Unit
Tampa Bay 0 Toronto 5 Lose
Over 9 Runs (-110) Boston (Beckett) / Baltimore (Bergesen) 1:35 ET 1 Unit
Boston 6 baltimore 5 Winner
Pittsburgh (Vasquez) +125 / Chicago Cubs (Wells) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 1 Chicgo Cubs 4 Lose
Tuesday 6/30: +0.43/Unit Units (Volume: 2.75 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Chicago WS (Richard) / Cleveland (Lee) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 11 Cleveland 4 (7 Innings) NO ACTION
Game shortened due to rain in the 7th inning. Game needs to complete for Totals action.
Tampa Bay (Garza) -122 / Toronto (Richmond) 7:05 ET 1.75 Units
Tampa Bay 4 Toronto 1 Winner
As we said yesterday, this Rays team is in a groove. After beating Roy Halladay last night 4-1, the Rays have won 6 in a row and 8 of their last 9 and all of a sudden are making it a race in the AL east now only 5 games behind Boston and 1.5 games back of the Yankees.
Tonight Tampa sends the solid Matt Garza to the Hill. Garza is coming off an 8 inning 3 hitter on the 24th against Philly. He'll be facing Scott Richmond for Toronto who is still splitting his duties between starts and the bullpen. It's tough for a pitcher to get into a rhythm when bouncing back and forth. This is the first time Richmond will be starting 2 games in a row (without a relief appearance between starts) since 5/24. We're looking for the Rays to continue their climb in the east.
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Minnesota (Baker) / Kansas City (Bannister) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 2 Kansas City 1 Lose
Monday 6/29: +3.45 Units (Volume: 4.00 Units)
Milwaukee (Looper) -130 / NY Mets (Nieve) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Milwaukee 10 NY Mets 6 Winner
Colorado - LA Dodgers 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
LA Dodgers (Wolf) -1.5 Runs (+195) / Colorado (Jimenez) 10:10 ET 0.5/Unit
LA Dodgers 4 Colorado 2 Winner
Parlay: LA Dodgers (ML) -113 & Under 8.5 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.25 Units
LA Dodgers 4 Colorado 2 Winner
We're in a spot here to win over 2 units for our 1 unit risk. We're not expecting for either team to do much scoring with these 2 starters, so as long as LA doesn't win a high scoring 1 run game, this is the correct play value-wise. A split will give us either a 0.75/unit win or a very minimal loss (0.02/unit)
Tampa Bay (Niemann) +145 / Toronto (Halladay) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Tampa Bay 4 Toronto 1 Winner
This is Roy Halladay's first start since leaving a game against the Marlins on June 12th in the 4th inning with a strained groin. You'll remember we were on Florida in that game +200 parlayed to the Under (8 Runs) for a half unit to make 2.42 Units (almost 5:1 on our money). Ricky Nolasco was the Marlin starter in that game and we liked the fat odds and as long as Nolasco showed signs of his earlier form, we knew we had a very legit shot. (This was Ricky's 2nd game back after being sent to the minors after his May 22nd debacle getting shelled for 8 ER's in 2 innings... but we knew it was just a matter of time before he got back to the form that won him 15 games last season). Point is the game wound up going over because of Marlins' Cody Ross' 8th inning grand slam (the game was tied at 2 going to the 8th).
It's all about getting value. In that game with Florida on 6/12, Halladay was a -240 favorite against Ricky Nolasco... Why?... because of Halladay's recent performance (10-1, 2.53 ERA and a WHIP right around 1.00) going against Nolasco who was just getting back up from being sent down... But like we always say, you need to anticipate the normal ups and downs of quality pitchers to gain value. If Halladay & Nolasco faced off today, the line would be in the Halladay -160 range because Nolasco is back to his old form. Since (and including) that game in Toronto, Ricky pitched 18 innings in 3 starts giving up just 13 hits, 2 walks and 3 ER's while striking out 21. We were on the Marlins in all 3 of those games netting a total of 3.18 Units of profit, and that includes losing the half unit Toronto parlay. We had him on 6/18 against Boston in a rain shortened game so our run-line & total portions of our bets were no action (would have been winners) but we won our 1 unit Florida +180 play (2-1 F). Then we were on Nolasco again on 6/24 as we got him cheap again (-145) at home against the Orioles (5-2 F). We had Florida for 1 unit and a half unit parlay Florida & Under 9 (+1.19 Units). But now the value is gone with Nolasco... today he's laying close to 2 to 1 at home against Washington.
So what does this all mean? Halladay hasn't pitched in 17 days. Even if he's 100% from his injury, interruptions in a pitchers' rhythm more times than not cause sub par outings and/or bad breaks in general. Also look at who the Blue Jays are facing... A red hot Ray's team winners of 5 in a row. And once again, the Rays' starter, Jeff Niemann, has been a bit off of late in his overall numbers but Tampa Bay has won 10 of Niemann's 14 starts this season including his last 4... these are the signs of a team in a groove.
Minnesota (Blackburn) -135 / Kansas City (Hochever) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 2 Kansas City 4 Lose
Week: 4/06 - 4/12
Week: 4/13 - 4/19
Week: 4/20 - 4/26
Week: 4/27 - 5/03
Week: 5/04 - 5/10
Week: 5/11 - 5/17
Week: 5/18 - 5/24
Week: 5/24 - 5/31
Week: 6/01 - 6/07
Week: 6/08 - 6/14
Week: 6/14 - 6/21
Week: 6/21 - 6/28
Week: 6/29 - 7/05
Week: 7/06 - 7/12