2009 MLB Results
Week: 6/01 - 6/07
-6.86 Units (Volume: 40.75 Units)
Sunday 6/07: -3.29 Units (Volume: 7.00 Units)
Under 8.5 Runs (-110) Chicago Cubs (Wells) / Cincinnati (Arroyo) 1:10 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago 6 Cincinnati 3 Lose
Over 8.5 Runs (-115) Colorado (Jimenez) / St. Louis (Piniero) 2:15 ET 1.25 Units
Colorado 7 St. Louis 2 Winner
Parlay: San Diego (Geer) +150 / Arizona (Haren) & Over 7 Runs (-115) 4:05 ET Risk 1 unit to win 3.68 Units
San Diego 6 Arizona 9 Lose
We're not playing the Padres here thinking it's going to be a pitcher's duel... we're looking for Dan Haren to finally get touched up a bit. Haren has maintained a WHIP of less than a run (0.86) for the season, a number that is sure to rise before long. Haren has thrown 100+ pitches (avg. 110) in his last 3 starts and today is his 3rd start in a row on just 5 days rest. With a total of just 7, we can even win a close low scoring ame (4-3) and show a nice profit but if we're right and Haren has a sub par outing, we'll make nearly 4:1 on our money. And if we're wrong, it'll probably go Arizona and under but our loss is just a unit... Value exists..
LA Angels (Saunders) +105 / Detroit (Porcello) 1:05 ET 1.5 Units
LA Angels 6 Detroit 9 Lose
Gotta give the nod here to the surging Angels (4-2 L6) and Joe Saunders over the slumping Tigers, losers of 4 of their last 5 (scoring only 12 runs in those 5 games).
Baltimore - Oakland 3 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Baltimore (Hill) / Oakland (Mazzaro) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
Baltimore 0 Oakland 3 Lose
Oakland -1.5 Runs (+175) / Baltimore Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.87/Unit
Baltimore 0 Oakland 3 Winner
Parlay: Oakland -115 & Over 8.5 Runs Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.29 Units
Baltimore 0 Oakland 3 Lose
Saturday 6/06: +0.14/Unit (Volume: 7.75 Units)
Over 9 Runs (Even) Philadelphia (Blanton) / LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 4:10 ET 1.25 Units
Philadelphia 2 LA Dodgers 3 Lose
Florida (Miller) -138 / San Francisco (Sanchez) 6:10 ET 1.5 Units
Florida 5 San Francisco 4 Winner
Houston (Oswalt) -157 / Pittsburgh (Maholm) 7:05 ET 1.5 Units
Houston 4 Pittsburgh 6 Lose
Parlay: Milwaukee (Suppan) +165 / Atlanta (Vazquez) & Under 8.5 Runs (Even) Risk 1 Unit to win 4.30 Units
Milwaukee 3 Atlanta 0 Winner
Nice price as these 2 veterans square off tonight in Atlanta. Although Jeff Suppan has been taking his lumps of late, he is a proven winner throughout the years (121 wins 10+ seasons) and is sure to get himself back on track soon and if does so tonight, we're getting paid over 4:1 on our money. What makes this play even more justifiable is that Atlanta has only won 3 of it's last 10 as a team.
Over 9 Runs (-105) LA Angels (Escobar) Detroit (Jackson) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
LA Angels 1 Detroit 2 Lose
Over 10.5 Runs (-110) Texas (Holland) / Boston (Lester) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Texas 1 Boston 8 Lose
Friday 6/05: -1.43 Units (Volume: 6.50 Units)
Over 9.5 Runs (Even) Pittsburgh (Karstens) / Houston (Hampton) 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Pittsburgh 1 Houston 9 Winner
LA Dodgers (Milton) -1.5 Runs (+155) / Philadelphia (Moyer) 10:10 Et 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 4 Philadelphia 3 Lose
LA Angels (Santana) +157 / Detroit (Verlander) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 2 Detroit 1 Winner
Chicago WS (Danks) -130 / Cleveland (Pavano) 8:10 ET 1.5 Units
Chicago 0 Cleveland 6 Lose
Seattle (Hernandez) -160 / Minnesota (Liriano) 10:10 ET 1.75 Units
Seattle 1 Minnesota 2 Lose
Thursday 6/04: +1.35 Units (Volume: 5.50 Units )
San Francisco - Washington 3 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
This is the make up game that was rained out last night. Game 1 of a DH
Washington (Zimmermann) -1.5 Runs (+160) / San Francisco (Johnson) 4:35 ET 0.5/Unit
San Francisco 5 Washington 1 Lose
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Washington (Zimmermann) / San Francisco (Johnson) 1 Unit
San Francisco 5 Washington 1 Lose
Parlay: Washington ML (-135) & Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.09 Units
San Francisco 5 Washington 1 Lose
We stand to make 2.72 Units for our 2 units of risk here. The Big Unit has been pitching well lately (last 2 outings anyway) but he is far from reliable. Johnson has given up 7 ER's 3 times this season: 4/13 at the Dodgers going 3.2 innings, 5/6 at Colorado going 5.2 innings and most recently at home against the Mets where he lasted just 4 innings allowing 11 hits. You'll notice that these clunkers have been pretty evenly spread out which we feel is no coincidence. At the age of 45, the once great lefty is showing the signs of age... he just doesn't have it anymore but by throwing back to back solid games he'll still get the respect in the line. As long as we believe Johnson will get touched for at least 4 runs, we're pretty safe here and if the Nats can put 5 on the board our overall risk is brought down to just 0.7/Unit with a wide array of possibilities to win up to almost 3 full units.
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) LA Angels (Lackey) / Toronto (Tallet) 12:35 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 6 Toronto 5 Winner
Under 10 Runs (-115) Boston (Wakefield) / Detroit (Willis) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Boston 6 Detroit 3 Winner
Parlay: Kansas City (Meche) +160 / Tampa (Shields) & Under 8 Runs (-110) 4:05 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.98 Units
Kansas City 2 Tampa 3 Lose
Nice price of nearly 4:1 on our money asking 2 evenly matched pitchers to turn in 2 good outings. We'll take a half unit shot on the road dog here to salvage the series.
Parlay: Florida (Johnson) -157 / Milwaukee (Bush) & Under 8.5 Runs (-105) 7:10 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 2.07 Units
Florida 4 Milwaukee 3 Winner
We're looking for quality outings from both these starters with the Marlins and Josh Johnson coming out on top. We see no value in laying the price with Florida as a one unit risk will only yield 0.65/Unit. We stand to make over 3x that amount by parlaying Johnson to the under.
Wednesday 6/03: -1.88 Units (Volume: 7.00 Units )
San Francisco - Washington 3 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
Washington (Zimmermann) -1.5 Runs (+160) / San Francisco (Johnson) 7:05 ET 0.5/Unit
RAINED OUT
Over 8.5 Runs (-110)Washington (Zimmermann) / San Francisco (Johnson) 1 Unit
RAINED OUT
Parlay: Washington ML (-125) & Over 8.5 Runs (-110)Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.22 Units
RAINED OUT
See write-up above... this game is being played as the first game of Thursday's DH and we are playing it then.
Florida (West) -1.5 Runs (+180) / Milwaukee (Looper) 7:10 ET 0.5/Unit
Florida 6 Milwaukee 9 Lose
Florida (West) ML (-105) / Milwaukee (Looper) 7:10 ET 0.5/Unit
Florida 6 Milwaukee 9 Lose
We'll split our 1 unit play between the ML & RL for added value.
Houston (Moehler) -102 / Colorado (Marquis) 8:05 ET 1.5 Unit
Houston 6 Colorado 4 Winner
Cincinnati (Cueto) +115 / St. Louis (Lohse) 8:15 ET 1 Unit
Cincinnati 9 St. Louis 3 Winner
Detroit (Gallarraga) +136 / Boston (Beckett) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 5 Boston 10 Lose
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Oakland (Outman) / Chicago WS (Richard) 8:10 ET 1.25 Units
Oakland 5 Chicago WS 3 Lose
Over 9 Runs (Even) Baltimore (Bergesen) / Seattle (Vargas) 10:10 ET 1.25 Units
Baltimore 3 Seattle 2 Lose
Tuesday 6/02: -1.70 Units (Volume: 5.00 Units )
Under 9.5 Runs (Even) Milwaukee (Parra) / Florida (Sanchez) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Milwaukee 3 Florida 10 Lose
St. Louis (Thompson) -1.5 Runs (+160) / Cincinnati (Arroyo) 8:15 ET 0.5/Unit
St. Louis 5 Cincinnati 2 Winner
Over 9 Runs (-115) St. Louis (Thompson) / Cincinnati (Arroyo) 1 Unit
St. Louis 5 Cincinnati 2 Lose
We're basing these plays on Bronson Arroyo having a poor outing. He's been pitching lights out lately (0.96 WHIP last 3) but has gotten smacked around multiple times earlier this season as recent as 5/6 when Milwaukee tagged him for 9 runs, 7 hits and 3 walks before getting a batter out in the second inning! If we're right we stand to make 1.67 units for our 1.5 units risked and even if we're wrong and Arroyo has another good start we can still get bailed out with the game going over the 9 (0.37/unit profit overall).
Texas - NYY 3 Plays Total Risk 2.5 Units
Texas (Padilla) +1.5 Runs (-115) / NY Yankees (Burnett) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Texas 3 NY Yankees 12 Lose
Over 10.5 Runs (Even) Texas / NY Yankees 1 Unit
Texas 3 NY Yankees 12 Winner
Parlay: Texas (ML) +180 & Over 10.5 Runs (Even) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.3 Units
Texas 3 NY Yankees 12 Lose
Here we're at risk for a total of 2.5 units with an upside of 4.17 units as we look for both of these starter to have just average outings. Padilla and Burnett have pretty much identical numbers this year (ERA's just under 5 and WHIP's of 1.41 each) as do the Yanks and Rangers W/L records. (30-21 and 30-20), so we can't justify this huge price. A Texas win with the game going over the 10.5 is obviously our optimal outcome, but the way we've structured our plays, our risk is minimal as long as the Yankees don't win a low scoring game by 2 runs or more (mathematically the most unlikely of outcomes). With a NYY 1 run win (or Texas win) and under, our loss is limited to 0.63/Unit, and with a Yankees 2+ run win and over, our loss is only 0.5/unit. On the winning side though, a Texas 1 run loss and over yields 1.37 units profit while a Texas outright win and over makes us 4.17 units. So as long as we at least split our over play and run line play, we're risking no more than 0.63/unit to win 4.17 units (over 6 to 1 on our money)
Monday 6/01: -0.05/Unit (Volume: 2.00 Units )
Pittsburgh (Snell) -105/ NY Mets (Hernandez) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 8 NY Mets 5 Winner
We're going against the shaky Livan Hernandez here who has gotten knocked around several times this season. Hernandez is coming off of a complete game performance giving up 9 hits and 1 walk while striking out 6, but it took 127 pitches to do. Sub par performance today for the 34 year older who should last only 5 or so.
Seattle (Washburn) -1.5 Runs (+160) / Baltimore (Hill) 10:10 ET 1 Unit
Seattle 0 Baltimore 1 Lose
The Mariners are 0-7 in Jarrod Washburn's last 7 starts including Washburn's most recent outing at Oakland where he went 6 innings scattering 6 hits and allowing no runs but the M's lost again 3-4. There were 2 other games within those 7 where Washburn went 7 innings each and yielded just 1 run each: a 1-3 loss at KC and a 2-3 loss at home against the A's. So of course Washburn and the Mariners have got to be wondering what it will take to win when he starts. The Mariners are coming off a winning weekend series on the road against the Angels where they took 2 of 3 averaging almost 6 runs per game. We feel this momentum will continue at home as the M's finally cash in a quality pitching performance by Jarrod Washburn and often times when a slump like this is finally broken, it is done so in a big way so we'll lay the run and a half to get the hefty +160 payout. We would have to risk twice as much to make the same amount on the money line (-125).
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