2009 MLB Results
Week: 5/25 - 5/31
-3.86 Units (Volume: 33.25 Units)
Sunday 5/31 MLB: -1.15 Units (Volume: 6.25 Units)
Over 8 Runs (-120) Cincinnat (Owings) / Milwaukee (Gallardo) 2:05 ET 1.25 Units
Cincinnati 2 Milwaukee 5 Lose
Over 9.5 Runs (Even) Atlanta (Medlen) / Arizona (Scherzer) 4:10 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 9 Arizona 3 Winner
Over 10 Runs (-115) NY Yankees (Hughes) / Cleveland (Pavano) 12:40 ET 1.25 Units
NY Yankees 4 Cleveland 5 Lose
Chicago WS (Danks) +160 / Kansas City (Greinke) 2:10 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 7 Kansas City 4 Winner
Texas (Millwood) -152 / Oakland (Braden) 3:05 ET 1.5 Units
Texas 4 Oakland 5 Lose
Saturday 5/30 MLB: +0.81/Unit (Volume: 5.25 Units)
Chicago Cubs (Dempster) -147 / LA Dodgers (Stults) 4:10 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago Cubs 7 LA Dodgers 0 Winner
Over 7.5 Runs (+105) St. Louis (Carpenter) / San Francisco (Zito) 9:05 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 6 San Francisco 2 Winner
Baltimore (Guthrie) +117 / Detroit (Verlander) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Baltimore 3 Detroit 6 Lose
Kansas City (Meche) -1.5 Runs (+180) / Chicago WS (Buehrle) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 3 Chicago WS 5 Lose
Under 8.5 Runs (-110) Seattle (Hernandez) / LA Angels (Palmer) 9:05 ET 1 Unit
Seattle 4 LA Angels 3 Winner
Friday 5/29 MLB: -2.50 Units (Volume: 2.50 Units)
Kansas City (Bannister) -120 / Chicago WS (Richard) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 2 Chicago WS 11 Lose
Seattle - LA Angels 2 Plays Total Risk: 1.5 Units
LA Angels (Lackey) -1.5 Runs (+115) / Seattle (Vargas) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 2 Seatle 5 Lose
Parlay: LAA (ML) -172 & Over 8.5 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to make 0.98/Unit
LA Angels 2 Seatle 5 Lose
We're basing these plays on Vargas for Seattle getting knocked around a bit tonight. The total is low enough to make it Over even with LAA's LAckey pitching well. We're in a no lose position with a split and are only risking1.5 units with a possible upside of 2.13 units... a far cry from the 0.87/unit win a straight play oly on LAA -172 would yield.
Thursday 5/28 MLB: +2.16 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Atlanta vs Arizona: 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Arizona (Haren) -1.5 Runs (+170) / Atlanta (Lowe) 9:40 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.85/Unit
Arizona 5 Atlanta 2 Winner
Parlay: Arizona (ML) -123 & Under 7.5 Runs (Even) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.31 Units
Arizona 5 Atlanta 2 Winner
Nice value here as we stand to make over 2:1 on our money (2.16 units for our 1 unit risked). What we're looking for is both of these starters, Dan Haren for the D'Backs and Derek Lowe for the Braves, to continue their dominance and turn in stellar performances, but in the end for Arizona to get the best of it with Dan Haren getting some breaks along the way as he certainly deserves. Over his last 3 starts, Haren pitched 20 innings giving up 23 hits and just 2 walks (1.25 WHIP) while striking out 16 yet all he has to show is 2 no decisions (a team win and loss) and a loss. Haren has an overall WHIP (Walks + Hits Per Inning Pitched) for the season of less than a run (0.90) and an ERA of 2.57 yet his record is 3-4 while the D'Backs record in games Haren has started is 4-5... not really the expected payoff for such hard work.
On the other hand, Derek Lowe has been getting all the breaks. His overall numbers are not as good as those of Haren's (1.18 WHIP) and a 3.45 ERA yet Lowe is currently 6-2 and the Braves are 7-3 overall in Lowe's starts. Over his last 6 starts, Lowe has pitched 41 innings allowing just 32 hits and 12 walks while striking out 22 for a WHIP of just 1.08. During this 6 game stretch, the Braves scored 39 runs (6.33 per game avg.) which is nice support for a pitcher. Tonight. as we said, we feel a shift in "highs" and "lows" for these 2 starters which is very common throughout the course of a season, especially with Atlanta fresh off of getting swept in their last 3 at SF while scoring a combined 5 runs in those 3 games... a far cry from the support Derek Lowe has become accustomed to!
So the way we've structured tonight's plays, we're only risking 1 unit with the possible return of 2.16 units on 2 plays that work hand in hand with each other and are both derived along the same line of reasoning thus limiting overall risk while maximizing overall profit. If Atlanta continues their horrid offense and the D'Backs cover the run and a half, we are guaranteed a profit of 0.35/Unit (+0.85/Unit on the AZ -1.5 runs (+170) play and -0.5/Unit on the parlay should the game fail to stay under). And if we win the parlay without AZ covering the RL, we'll pick up 0.81/Unit (+1.31 units on the parlay and -0.5/unit on AZ -1.5 runs).
Note: The latter scenario yields exactly the same profit (+0.81/Unit) as a 1 unit straight play on Arizona on the money line -123 (this also pays +0.81/Unit for a 1 unit risk). And we're really not asking for a whole lot to win both plays but it's nice to be backed up keeping down our overall exposure to loss. The one constant between playing either the AZ ML -123 play for 1 unit and the way we're playing is that AZ has to win. The only scenario we must avoid is a 1 run AZ win with the game going over the 7.5 as this will cause an overall loss of 1 unit as opposed to a profit of 0.81/unit on the AZ only ML play.
Tuesday 5/26 MLB: -0.04/Unit (Volume: 6.00 Units)
Under 10 Runs (-110) Florida (Miller) / Philadelphia (Blanton) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Florida 3 Philadelphia 5 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (Even) St. Louis (Wainwright) / Miwaukee (Suppan) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 8 Milwaukee 1 Winner
Over 10.5 Runs (-105) LA Dodgers (Milton) / Colorado (Cook) 8:40 Et 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 7 Colorado 1 Lose
San Diego (Correia) +150 / Arizona (Scherzer) 9:40 Et 1 Unit
San Diego 5 Arizona 6 Lose
Baltimore (Berken) +105 / Toronto (Romero) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Baltimore 7 Toronto 2 Winner
Boston (Lester) -110 / Minnesota (Blackburn) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Boston 2 Minnesota 5 Lose
Monday 5/24 MLB: -2.07 Units (Volume: 6.50 Units)
2 Plays Total Risked: 1.5 Units:
Milwaukee (Gallardo) -1.5 Runs (+190) / St. Louis (Carpenter) 2:05 ET 1 Unit
Milwaukee 1 St. Louis 0 Lose
Parlay: Milwaukee (ML) -117 & Over 7.5 Runs (-110) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.27 Units
Milwaukee 1 St. Louis 0 Lose
We're basing these plays on a combination of Carpenter having a sub par outing and Milwaukee being glad to be home and getting back on track with the solid Gallardo on the hill after being swept in Minnesota over the weekend in inter-league play. We like the value on the run line which is the only way to play this game value wise. 7.5 also is a low enough total to make it over even with Gallardo pitching a gem. We stand to make 3.17 units for our 1.5 units risked. Even splitting these 2 plays will yield a profit: we can lose the parlay and still make more than a 1.5 unit straight bet on Milwaukee on the ML (-117) (+1.4 units as opposed to +1.28 units) as long as Milwaukee covers the 1.5 runs. And a high scoring 1 run Milwaukee win yields us a modest quarter unit profit. Remember, betting MLB is all about getting value by structuring your plays according to the reasoning behind the plays. If Milwaukee winds up winning a low scoring 1 run game losing everything for us we're fine with that because that just means that we were wrong.... Carpenter will have to have a great outing for that to happen.
Over 8 Runs (+105) Atlanta (Vazquez) / San Francisco (Sanchez) 4:05 ET ESPN 1 Unit
Atlanta 2 San Francisco 8 Winner
2 Plays Total Risked: 2 Units:
Pittsburgh (Maholm) +1.5 Runs (-170) / Chicago Cubs ((Dempster) 8:05 ET Risk 1.5 Units to win 0.88/Unit
Pittsburgh 10 Chicago 8 Winner
Parlay: Pittsburgh ML (+140) & Under 7.5 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.84 Unit
Pittsburgh 10 Chicago 8 Lose
Here's a spot where we feel both starters will have great outings. The real value lies in the +1.5 Runs with the Pirates even though you're laying a price. As is the case in a pitcher's duel, the likelihood of a 1 run game is extremely high, especially for the home team batting last.We'll risk a unit and a half to win just shy of a full unit and if we come out on top of a low scoring game, the Pitt ML parlay pays nice... about 3.5:1. We stand to make 2.72 units for our 2 units risked, about the same yield as the whole 2 units on Pittsburgh on th ML, but this way we can still show a profit even with a Pitt 1 run loss.
Kansas City (Meche) +120 / Detroit (Verlander) 2:10 Et 1 Unit
Kansas City 1 Detroit 13 Lose
Over 9.5 Runs (+105) Seattle (Jakubauskas) / Oakland (Anderson) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
Seattle 1 Oakland 6 Lose
Week: 4/06 - 4/12
Week: 4/13 - 4/19
Week: 4/20 - 4/26
Week: 4/27 - 5/03
Week: 5/04 - 5/10
Week: 5/11 - 5/17
Week: 5/18 - 5/24
Week: 5/24 - 5/31
Week: 6/01 - 6/07
Week: 6/08 - 6/14
Week: 5/25 - 5/31
-3.86 Units (Volume: 33.25 Units)
Sunday 5/31 MLB: -1.15 Units (Volume: 6.25 Units)
Over 8 Runs (-120) Cincinnat (Owings) / Milwaukee (Gallardo) 2:05 ET 1.25 Units
Cincinnati 2 Milwaukee 5 Lose
Over 9.5 Runs (Even) Atlanta (Medlen) / Arizona (Scherzer) 4:10 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 9 Arizona 3 Winner
Over 10 Runs (-115) NY Yankees (Hughes) / Cleveland (Pavano) 12:40 ET 1.25 Units
NY Yankees 4 Cleveland 5 Lose
Chicago WS (Danks) +160 / Kansas City (Greinke) 2:10 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS 7 Kansas City 4 Winner
Texas (Millwood) -152 / Oakland (Braden) 3:05 ET 1.5 Units
Texas 4 Oakland 5 Lose
Saturday 5/30 MLB: +0.81/Unit (Volume: 5.25 Units)
Chicago Cubs (Dempster) -147 / LA Dodgers (Stults) 4:10 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago Cubs 7 LA Dodgers 0 Winner
Over 7.5 Runs (+105) St. Louis (Carpenter) / San Francisco (Zito) 9:05 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 6 San Francisco 2 Winner
Baltimore (Guthrie) +117 / Detroit (Verlander) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Baltimore 3 Detroit 6 Lose
Kansas City (Meche) -1.5 Runs (+180) / Chicago WS (Buehrle) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 3 Chicago WS 5 Lose
Under 8.5 Runs (-110) Seattle (Hernandez) / LA Angels (Palmer) 9:05 ET 1 Unit
Seattle 4 LA Angels 3 Winner
Friday 5/29 MLB: -2.50 Units (Volume: 2.50 Units)
Kansas City (Bannister) -120 / Chicago WS (Richard) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 2 Chicago WS 11 Lose
Seattle - LA Angels 2 Plays Total Risk: 1.5 Units
LA Angels (Lackey) -1.5 Runs (+115) / Seattle (Vargas) 10:05 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 2 Seatle 5 Lose
Parlay: LAA (ML) -172 & Over 8.5 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to make 0.98/Unit
LA Angels 2 Seatle 5 Lose
We're basing these plays on Vargas for Seattle getting knocked around a bit tonight. The total is low enough to make it Over even with LAA's LAckey pitching well. We're in a no lose position with a split and are only risking1.5 units with a possible upside of 2.13 units... a far cry from the 0.87/unit win a straight play oly on LAA -172 would yield.
Thursday 5/28 MLB: +2.16 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Atlanta vs Arizona: 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Arizona (Haren) -1.5 Runs (+170) / Atlanta (Lowe) 9:40 ET Risk 0.5/Unit to win 0.85/Unit
Arizona 5 Atlanta 2 Winner
Parlay: Arizona (ML) -123 & Under 7.5 Runs (Even) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.31 Units
Arizona 5 Atlanta 2 Winner
Nice value here as we stand to make over 2:1 on our money (2.16 units for our 1 unit risked). What we're looking for is both of these starters, Dan Haren for the D'Backs and Derek Lowe for the Braves, to continue their dominance and turn in stellar performances, but in the end for Arizona to get the best of it with Dan Haren getting some breaks along the way as he certainly deserves. Over his last 3 starts, Haren pitched 20 innings giving up 23 hits and just 2 walks (1.25 WHIP) while striking out 16 yet all he has to show is 2 no decisions (a team win and loss) and a loss. Haren has an overall WHIP (Walks + Hits Per Inning Pitched) for the season of less than a run (0.90) and an ERA of 2.57 yet his record is 3-4 while the D'Backs record in games Haren has started is 4-5... not really the expected payoff for such hard work.
On the other hand, Derek Lowe has been getting all the breaks. His overall numbers are not as good as those of Haren's (1.18 WHIP) and a 3.45 ERA yet Lowe is currently 6-2 and the Braves are 7-3 overall in Lowe's starts. Over his last 6 starts, Lowe has pitched 41 innings allowing just 32 hits and 12 walks while striking out 22 for a WHIP of just 1.08. During this 6 game stretch, the Braves scored 39 runs (6.33 per game avg.) which is nice support for a pitcher. Tonight. as we said, we feel a shift in "highs" and "lows" for these 2 starters which is very common throughout the course of a season, especially with Atlanta fresh off of getting swept in their last 3 at SF while scoring a combined 5 runs in those 3 games... a far cry from the support Derek Lowe has become accustomed to!
So the way we've structured tonight's plays, we're only risking 1 unit with the possible return of 2.16 units on 2 plays that work hand in hand with each other and are both derived along the same line of reasoning thus limiting overall risk while maximizing overall profit. If Atlanta continues their horrid offense and the D'Backs cover the run and a half, we are guaranteed a profit of 0.35/Unit (+0.85/Unit on the AZ -1.5 runs (+170) play and -0.5/Unit on the parlay should the game fail to stay under). And if we win the parlay without AZ covering the RL, we'll pick up 0.81/Unit (+1.31 units on the parlay and -0.5/unit on AZ -1.5 runs).
Note: The latter scenario yields exactly the same profit (+0.81/Unit) as a 1 unit straight play on Arizona on the money line -123 (this also pays +0.81/Unit for a 1 unit risk). And we're really not asking for a whole lot to win both plays but it's nice to be backed up keeping down our overall exposure to loss. The one constant between playing either the AZ ML -123 play for 1 unit and the way we're playing is that AZ has to win. The only scenario we must avoid is a 1 run AZ win with the game going over the 7.5 as this will cause an overall loss of 1 unit as opposed to a profit of 0.81/unit on the AZ only ML play.
Wednesday 5/27 MLB: -1.07 Units (Volume: 5.75 Units)
Milwaukee (Parra) -140 / St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 1:05 ET 1.75 Units
Milwaukee 2 St. Louis 3 Lose
Over 9 Runs (-110) San Diego (Peavy) / Arizona (Buckner) 9:40 ET 1.25 Units
San Diego 8 Arizona 5 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Atlanta (Kawakami) / San Francisco (Johnson) 10:15 ET 1.25 Units
Atlanta 3 San Francisco 6 Winner
Kansas City (Davies) Even / Detroit (Porcello) 2:10 ET 1.5 Units
Kansas City 3 Detroit 8 Lose
Tuesday 5/26 MLB: -0.04/Unit (Volume: 6.00 Units)
Under 10 Runs (-110) Florida (Miller) / Philadelphia (Blanton) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Florida 3 Philadelphia 5 Winner
Over 8.5 Runs (Even) St. Louis (Wainwright) / Miwaukee (Suppan) 8:05 ET 1 Unit
St. Louis 8 Milwaukee 1 Winner
Over 10.5 Runs (-105) LA Dodgers (Milton) / Colorado (Cook) 8:40 Et 1 Unit
LA Dodgers 7 Colorado 1 Lose
San Diego (Correia) +150 / Arizona (Scherzer) 9:40 Et 1 Unit
San Diego 5 Arizona 6 Lose
Baltimore (Berken) +105 / Toronto (Romero) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Baltimore 7 Toronto 2 Winner
Boston (Lester) -110 / Minnesota (Blackburn) 8:10 ET 1 Unit
Boston 2 Minnesota 5 Lose
Monday 5/24 MLB: -2.07 Units (Volume: 6.50 Units)
2 Plays Total Risked: 1.5 Units:
Milwaukee (Gallardo) -1.5 Runs (+190) / St. Louis (Carpenter) 2:05 ET 1 Unit
Milwaukee 1 St. Louis 0 Lose
Parlay: Milwaukee (ML) -117 & Over 7.5 Runs (-110) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.27 Units
Milwaukee 1 St. Louis 0 Lose
We're basing these plays on a combination of Carpenter having a sub par outing and Milwaukee being glad to be home and getting back on track with the solid Gallardo on the hill after being swept in Minnesota over the weekend in inter-league play. We like the value on the run line which is the only way to play this game value wise. 7.5 also is a low enough total to make it over even with Gallardo pitching a gem. We stand to make 3.17 units for our 1.5 units risked. Even splitting these 2 plays will yield a profit: we can lose the parlay and still make more than a 1.5 unit straight bet on Milwaukee on the ML (-117) (+1.4 units as opposed to +1.28 units) as long as Milwaukee covers the 1.5 runs. And a high scoring 1 run Milwaukee win yields us a modest quarter unit profit. Remember, betting MLB is all about getting value by structuring your plays according to the reasoning behind the plays. If Milwaukee winds up winning a low scoring 1 run game losing everything for us we're fine with that because that just means that we were wrong.... Carpenter will have to have a great outing for that to happen.
Over 8 Runs (+105) Atlanta (Vazquez) / San Francisco (Sanchez) 4:05 ET ESPN 1 Unit
Atlanta 2 San Francisco 8 Winner
2 Plays Total Risked: 2 Units:
Pittsburgh (Maholm) +1.5 Runs (-170) / Chicago Cubs ((Dempster) 8:05 ET Risk 1.5 Units to win 0.88/Unit
Pittsburgh 10 Chicago 8 Winner
Parlay: Pittsburgh ML (+140) & Under 7.5 Runs (-105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.84 Unit
Pittsburgh 10 Chicago 8 Lose
Here's a spot where we feel both starters will have great outings. The real value lies in the +1.5 Runs with the Pirates even though you're laying a price. As is the case in a pitcher's duel, the likelihood of a 1 run game is extremely high, especially for the home team batting last.We'll risk a unit and a half to win just shy of a full unit and if we come out on top of a low scoring game, the Pitt ML parlay pays nice... about 3.5:1. We stand to make 2.72 units for our 2 units risked, about the same yield as the whole 2 units on Pittsburgh on th ML, but this way we can still show a profit even with a Pitt 1 run loss.
Kansas City (Meche) +120 / Detroit (Verlander) 2:10 Et 1 Unit
Kansas City 1 Detroit 13 Lose
Over 9.5 Runs (+105) Seattle (Jakubauskas) / Oakland (Anderson) 4:05 ET 1 Unit
Seattle 1 Oakland 6 Lose
Week: 4/06 - 4/12
Week: 4/13 - 4/19
Week: 4/20 - 4/26
Week: 4/27 - 5/03
Week: 5/04 - 5/10
Week: 5/11 - 5/17
Week: 5/18 - 5/24
Week: 5/24 - 5/31
Week: 6/01 - 6/07
Week: 6/08 - 6/14