2009 MLB Results
Week: 5/18 - 5/24
+1.83 Units (Volume: 30.50 Units)
Sunday 5/24 MLB: +5.10 Units (Volume: 6.25 Units)
Philadelphia (Hamels) +1.5 Runs (-145) / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 4 NY Yankees 3 Winner
Parlay: Philadelphia ML (+140) & Under 9 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.74 Units
Philadelphia 4 NY Yankees 3 Winner
We're expecting good outings from both these starters and we like our position of risking only 1.5 units with an upside of 2.43 units AND we can lose a 1 run game and still show a profit.
Parlay: Colorado (Hammel) +140 / Detroit (Willis) & Over 10 Runs (-110) 1:05 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 3.58 Units
Colorado 3 Detroit 1 Lose
Dontrell Willis is pitching just his 3rd game since being reactivated following an anxiety disorder. In his last outing, Willis pitched 6 and a third innings allowing no runs and just 1 hit while walking 2 and striking out 5. Is he getting back to his old form or will he revert back to how he pitched in his first outing back on 5/13 giving up 8 hits and 4 runs in 4 and two thirds? If he's on, we'll only drop one unit but if he tanks which is a good possibility, we stand to make 3.5:1 on our money. Sufficient value exists to warrant this play.
Over 8 Runs (Even) Toronto (Richmond) / Atlanta (Jurrijens) 1:35 ET 1.25 Units
Toronto 2 Atlanta 10 Winner
Kansas City (Bannister) +135 / St. Louis (Piniero) 2:15 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 3 St. Louis Winner
Minnesota (Baker) -140 / Milwaukee (Bush) 8:05 ET 1.5 Units
Minnesota 6 Milwaukee 3 Winner
Saturday 5/23 MLB: -0.85/Unit (Volume: 8.50 Unit)
Under 9.5 Runs (-120) Kansas City (Hochevar) / St. Louis (Lohse) 1:10 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 0 St. Louis 5 Winner
Houston (Moehler) +105 / Texas (Feldman) 4:10 ET 1.25 Units
Houston 3 Texas 6 Lose
Chicago WS (Richard) -150 / Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
CWS 4 Pittsburgh 0 Winner
Under 10 Runs (-120) NY Mets (Pelfrey) / Boston (Beckett) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
NY Mets 3 Boston 2 Winner
Under 8.5 Runs (-110) Toronto (Janessen) / Atlanta (Lowe) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 3 Atlanta 4 Winner
LA Angels (Lackey) +110 / LA Dodgers (Wolf) 10:10 ET 1.75 Units
LA Angels 4 LA Dodgers 5 Lose
Over 8 Runs (-105) San Francisco (Cain) / Seattle (Olson) 10:10 ET 1.25 Units
San Francisco 5 Seattle 1 Lose
Thursday 5/21 MLB: -3.50 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Arizona (Schezer) / Florida (Miller) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Arizona 4 Florida 3 Lose
Houston (Oswalt) -145 / Milwaukee (Suppan) 8:05 ET1.5 Units
Milwaukee 4 Houston 3 Lose
Texas (Millwood) +115 / Detroit (Jackson) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 4 Texas 3 Lose
Wednesday 5/20 MLB: +1.83 Units (Volume: 2.50 Units)
Under 9 Runs (-120) Pittsburgh (Maholm) / Washington (Lannan) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 2 Washington 1 Winner
Texas - Detroit 7:05 ET 2 Plays: Risking 1.5 Units/Total
Detroit (Verlander) -1.5 Runs (+150) / Texas (Harrison) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 5 Texas 3 Winner
Parlay: Detroit ML (-155) & Over 9 Runs (+105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.14 Units
Detroit 5 Texas 3 Lose
These plays revolve around Matt Harrison having a poor outing. Harrison is coming off of 2 complete games and has only allowed 15 hits, 1 walk & 2 runs in his last 3 outings (23 innings of work) for a WHIP of 0.69. Although he's pitching extremely well of late, he's not in the elite tier of starters who are expected to produce every outing so we're expecting the inevitable bad outing tonight. For Detroit tonight, Justin Verlander starts. Verlander also has been pitching extremely well of late and he IS a proven quality starter averaging 15+ wins over his last 3 seasons. So we'll play this one with minimal risk as we stand to make 2.64 units for our 1.5 units risked if we are correct. To simply play Detroit to win the game, we'd have to lay almost 3x as much (4.1 Units to win 2.62 units) which gives us no real value. And if we split our 2 plays, we still come out ahead.
Monday 5/18: +2.94 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units )
Colorado - Atlanta 7:10 ET Risking 1.5 Units Total
Colorado (Marquis) +1.5 Runs (-135) / Atlanta (Lowe) Risk 1 Unit to win 0.74/Unit
Colorado 5 Atlanta 1 Winner
Parlay: Colorado +170 & Under 8.5 Runs (Even) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.2 Units
Colorado 5 Atlanta 1 Winner
Jason Marquis for Colorado is a quality pitcher who has averaged over 12 wins the last 5 seasons (65 total) and is currently 4-3 with an ERA of 5.40 but more importantly a WHIP (Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.40. He has been getting knocked around lately but as is the case with all quality pitchers, it's just a matter of time before he finds his groove. But if you wait for that to happen, the value will be gone. Atlatna's Derek Lowe is having a great season (5-1, 3.80 ERA & 1.35 WHIP) but he too has been touched up several times (Most recently 2 games ago (5/6) vs. Florida where he gave up 7 hits and 6 earned runs in 5 innings). Over the past 5 seasons Lowe has 60 wins with an average ERA of 3.95 (about a half run lower than Marquis). Huge value exists here because this line (Atlanta -180) is because of recent results and the betting public's reaction to them. (The linemaker opened this game at Atlanta -164 and has since been bet up 16 cents).
We feel this number is off by at least a quarter to begin with, and then add to the picture our play structure (giving respect to Derek Lowe). We can lose the game (by a run) and walk away winning 0.24/Unit. We are expecting a low scoring game and if this is the game that gets Jason Marquis on track, we stand to make 2.94 units for our 1.5 units risked.
Week: 4/06 - 4/12
Week: 4/13 - 4/19
Week: 4/20 - 4/26
Week: 4/27 - 5/03
Week: 5/04 - 5/10
Week: 5/11 - 5/17
Week: 5/18 - 5/24
Week: 5/24 - 5/31
Week: 6/01 - 6/07
Week: 6/08 - 6/14
Week: 5/18 - 5/24
+1.83 Units (Volume: 30.50 Units)
Sunday 5/24 MLB: +5.10 Units (Volume: 6.25 Units)
Philadelphia (Hamels) +1.5 Runs (-145) / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Philadelphia 4 NY Yankees 3 Winner
Parlay: Philadelphia ML (+140) & Under 9 Runs (-115) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.74 Units
Philadelphia 4 NY Yankees 3 Winner
We're expecting good outings from both these starters and we like our position of risking only 1.5 units with an upside of 2.43 units AND we can lose a 1 run game and still show a profit.
Parlay: Colorado (Hammel) +140 / Detroit (Willis) & Over 10 Runs (-110) 1:05 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 3.58 Units
Colorado 3 Detroit 1 Lose
Dontrell Willis is pitching just his 3rd game since being reactivated following an anxiety disorder. In his last outing, Willis pitched 6 and a third innings allowing no runs and just 1 hit while walking 2 and striking out 5. Is he getting back to his old form or will he revert back to how he pitched in his first outing back on 5/13 giving up 8 hits and 4 runs in 4 and two thirds? If he's on, we'll only drop one unit but if he tanks which is a good possibility, we stand to make 3.5:1 on our money. Sufficient value exists to warrant this play.
Over 8 Runs (Even) Toronto (Richmond) / Atlanta (Jurrijens) 1:35 ET 1.25 Units
Toronto 2 Atlanta 10 Winner
Kansas City (Bannister) +135 / St. Louis (Piniero) 2:15 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 3 St. Louis Winner
Minnesota (Baker) -140 / Milwaukee (Bush) 8:05 ET 1.5 Units
Minnesota 6 Milwaukee 3 Winner
Saturday 5/23 MLB: -0.85/Unit (Volume: 8.50 Unit)
Under 9.5 Runs (-120) Kansas City (Hochevar) / St. Louis (Lohse) 1:10 ET 1 Unit
Kansas City 0 St. Louis 5 Winner
Houston (Moehler) +105 / Texas (Feldman) 4:10 ET 1.25 Units
Houston 3 Texas 6 Lose
Chicago WS (Richard) -150 / Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
CWS 4 Pittsburgh 0 Winner
Under 10 Runs (-120) NY Mets (Pelfrey) / Boston (Beckett) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
NY Mets 3 Boston 2 Winner
Under 8.5 Runs (-110) Toronto (Janessen) / Atlanta (Lowe) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Toronto 3 Atlanta 4 Winner
LA Angels (Lackey) +110 / LA Dodgers (Wolf) 10:10 ET 1.75 Units
LA Angels 4 LA Dodgers 5 Lose
Over 8 Runs (-105) San Francisco (Cain) / Seattle (Olson) 10:10 ET 1.25 Units
San Francisco 5 Seattle 1 Lose
Friday 5/22 MLB: -4.50 Units (Volume: 4.50 Units)
NY Yankees (Burnett) -1.5 Runs (+110) / Philadelphia (Myers) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
NY Yankees 3 Philadelphia 7 Lose
Over 9 Runs (-110) Colorado (Jimenez) / Detroit (Porcello) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Colrado 3 Detroit 4 Lose
San Francisco (Johnson) +130 / Seattle (Vargas) 10:10 ET 1.25 Unit
Seattle 2 San Francisco 1 Lose
Over 7.5 Runs (+105) LA Angels (Weaver) / LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 10:10 ET 1.25 Unit
LA Angels 3 LA Dodgers 1 Lose
Thursday 5/21 MLB: -3.50 Units (Volume: 3.50 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-120) Arizona (Schezer) / Florida (Miller) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Arizona 4 Florida 3 Lose
Houston (Oswalt) -145 / Milwaukee (Suppan) 8:05 ET1.5 Units
Milwaukee 4 Houston 3 Lose
Texas (Millwood) +115 / Detroit (Jackson) 1:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 4 Texas 3 Lose
Wednesday 5/20 MLB: +1.83 Units (Volume: 2.50 Units)
Under 9 Runs (-120) Pittsburgh (Maholm) / Washington (Lannan) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 2 Washington 1 Winner
Texas - Detroit 7:05 ET 2 Plays: Risking 1.5 Units/Total
Detroit (Verlander) -1.5 Runs (+150) / Texas (Harrison) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 5 Texas 3 Winner
Parlay: Detroit ML (-155) & Over 9 Runs (+105) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.14 Units
Detroit 5 Texas 3 Lose
These plays revolve around Matt Harrison having a poor outing. Harrison is coming off of 2 complete games and has only allowed 15 hits, 1 walk & 2 runs in his last 3 outings (23 innings of work) for a WHIP of 0.69. Although he's pitching extremely well of late, he's not in the elite tier of starters who are expected to produce every outing so we're expecting the inevitable bad outing tonight. For Detroit tonight, Justin Verlander starts. Verlander also has been pitching extremely well of late and he IS a proven quality starter averaging 15+ wins over his last 3 seasons. So we'll play this one with minimal risk as we stand to make 2.64 units for our 1.5 units risked if we are correct. To simply play Detroit to win the game, we'd have to lay almost 3x as much (4.1 Units to win 2.62 units) which gives us no real value. And if we split our 2 plays, we still come out ahead.
Tuesday 5/19: +0.81/Unit (Volume: 3.75 Units )
Over 10 Runs (-110) Pittsburgh (Karstens) / Washington (Martis) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 8 Washington 5 Winner
Philadelphia (Hamels) -130 / Cincinnati (Cueto) 7:10 ET 1.5 Units
Philadelphia 4 Cincinnati 3 Winner
Tampa Bay (Shields) -1.5 Runs (Even) / Oakland (Outman) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Tampa Bay 1 Oakland 4 Lose
Over 10 Runs (-110) Pittsburgh (Karstens) / Washington (Martis) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Pittsburgh 8 Washington 5 Winner
Philadelphia (Hamels) -130 / Cincinnati (Cueto) 7:10 ET 1.5 Units
Philadelphia 4 Cincinnati 3 Winner
Tampa Bay (Shields) -1.5 Runs (Even) / Oakland (Outman) 7:05 ET 1.25 Units
Tampa Bay 1 Oakland 4 Lose
Monday 5/18: +2.94 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units )
Colorado - Atlanta 7:10 ET Risking 1.5 Units Total
Colorado (Marquis) +1.5 Runs (-135) / Atlanta (Lowe) Risk 1 Unit to win 0.74/Unit
Colorado 5 Atlanta 1 Winner
Parlay: Colorado +170 & Under 8.5 Runs (Even) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.2 Units
Colorado 5 Atlanta 1 Winner
Jason Marquis for Colorado is a quality pitcher who has averaged over 12 wins the last 5 seasons (65 total) and is currently 4-3 with an ERA of 5.40 but more importantly a WHIP (Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.40. He has been getting knocked around lately but as is the case with all quality pitchers, it's just a matter of time before he finds his groove. But if you wait for that to happen, the value will be gone. Atlatna's Derek Lowe is having a great season (5-1, 3.80 ERA & 1.35 WHIP) but he too has been touched up several times (Most recently 2 games ago (5/6) vs. Florida where he gave up 7 hits and 6 earned runs in 5 innings). Over the past 5 seasons Lowe has 60 wins with an average ERA of 3.95 (about a half run lower than Marquis). Huge value exists here because this line (Atlanta -180) is because of recent results and the betting public's reaction to them. (The linemaker opened this game at Atlanta -164 and has since been bet up 16 cents).
We feel this number is off by at least a quarter to begin with, and then add to the picture our play structure (giving respect to Derek Lowe). We can lose the game (by a run) and walk away winning 0.24/Unit. We are expecting a low scoring game and if this is the game that gets Jason Marquis on track, we stand to make 2.94 units for our 1.5 units risked.
Week: 4/06 - 4/12
Week: 4/13 - 4/19
Week: 4/20 - 4/26
Week: 4/27 - 5/03
Week: 5/04 - 5/10
Week: 5/11 - 5/17
Week: 5/18 - 5/24
Week: 5/24 - 5/31
Week: 6/01 - 6/07
Week: 6/08 - 6/14