2009 MLB Results
Click here for full season results
Week: 10/12 - 10/18
+1.25 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)
Friday 10/16: +1.25 Units (Series Play) (Volume: 3.00 Units)
NYY - LAA Game 1
NY Yankees (Sabathia) -1.5 Runs (+125) / LA Angels (Lackey) 7:55 ET 1 Unit
NYY 4 LAA 1 Winner
This is the time of the year when CC Sabatha is at his best. Unlike most pitchers, Sabathia gets stronger the deeper into the season it gets. You'll recall earlier in the year, the Yankees were only about 50-50 in Sabathia started games and since these games came with such big price tags, CC was an extremely poor investment early on (and we took full advantage of the situation!) Even laying -175 tonight on the ML is holds value, but we're laying the -1.5 runs instead thus cutting our risk in less than half (it would take over a 2 Unit risk at -175 to win the same 1.25 Units a 1 Unit RL play will yield).
NYY - LAA Series Play
NY Yankees -195/ LA Angels 7:55 ET Game 1 Start Risk 2 Units
Note: This is a play on the NYY - LAA Series in addition to our ALCS - NLCS parlay play yesterday. We are playing this play with the full intention of rolling the entire profit along with the original ALCS risk over on the Yankees in the World Series....
Of course it's real tough to argue that the Yankees are by far the team to beat this post season.. that's not the issue here. You don't need us to recommend a futures play on New York. The issue is the robbery by your bookie! Don't be a square and fall for the Yankees futures price to win the World Series (currently -105)... We are going to show you how, at this price, books are raping their players to the tune of an additional 25% juice... it all boils down to simple math and a pretty easily speculated World Series price the Yankees will lay if they do beat the Angels.
For round number purposes, we're going to use $1,000 as our "futures" bet on NY to win the World Series. If you simply succumb to your bookmakers futures line of NYY -105 to win the Series, you'll net a profit of $952 for your $1,000 risk ($952 x 1.05 = $1,000). But if you bet your risk amount now on the Yankees -195 / LAA in the ALCS with the intention of rolling the entire proceeds, including your original $1,000 risk, over to the Yankees in the World Series, NY would have to be greater than a -350 favorite for you to make less than your $952 you would have stood to make in your futures play now.
Considering that NY opened at -210 against the Angels and was immediately bet down to -185 before creeping back up to -195 today, there's no way the Yankees, if they indeed do get to the World Series, will be anywhere near a -350 favorite. We estimate them to go off at around -200 to -250 against either the Phillies or the Dodgers. If NY is -200, the payout on your $1,000 risk will be $1,270: the $512 profit from the ALCS (NYY -195: Risk $1,000 to win $512 in the ALCS) + the $756 profit after rolling the $512 ALCS profit + the original $1,000 risk on to NYY -200 in the Series (that's one third more money in your pocket for the same exact risk: $952 x 1.333 = $1,269).
And even if the Yanks go off higher, there's still big value because there's no way they'll ever go off anywhere near the -350 mark as explained above is what it will take to prove this method of betting NY to win the WS incorrect.... Here are the other price scenarios:
Remember, with $1,000 risked on the Yanks -195 in the ALCS, you're making $512 profit so in each of the following examples your WS bet (risk) will be $1,512:
NYY -225: Risk $1,512 to win $671... $1,183 profit as opposed to $952... 24% more
NYY -250: Risk $1,512 to win $604... $1,116 profit as opposed to $952... 17% more
NYY -275: Risk $1,512 to win $550... $1,062 profit as opposed to $952... 12% more
NYY -300: Risk $1,512 to win $503... $1,015 profit as opposed to $952... 7% more
So you see, the "easy" looking bet of NY -105 for the series is not a fair price, and with a little manipulation and ingenuity, we once again are beating the bookmakers at their own game... the game of advantages!! It's thinking like this that has enabled us to have the success we did this year in MLB. In closing remember, although we do like NY to win it all this season, there really is no value in the price of -105 right now, but there is great value in what we anticipate once the post season whittles down to the remaining 2 and we are left holding a NY Series ticket at a price range between +101 and +127!
Click here for full season results
Week: 10/12 - 10/18
+1.25 Units (Volume: 1.25 Units)
Friday 10/16: +1.25 Units (Series Play) (Volume: 3.00 Units)
NYY - LAA Game 1
NY Yankees (Sabathia) -1.5 Runs (+125) / LA Angels (Lackey) 7:55 ET 1 Unit
NYY 4 LAA 1 Winner
This is the time of the year when CC Sabatha is at his best. Unlike most pitchers, Sabathia gets stronger the deeper into the season it gets. You'll recall earlier in the year, the Yankees were only about 50-50 in Sabathia started games and since these games came with such big price tags, CC was an extremely poor investment early on (and we took full advantage of the situation!) Even laying -175 tonight on the ML is holds value, but we're laying the -1.5 runs instead thus cutting our risk in less than half (it would take over a 2 Unit risk at -175 to win the same 1.25 Units a 1 Unit RL play will yield).
NYY - LAA Series Play
NY Yankees -195/ LA Angels 7:55 ET Game 1 Start Risk 2 Units
Note: This is a play on the NYY - LAA Series in addition to our ALCS - NLCS parlay play yesterday. We are playing this play with the full intention of rolling the entire profit along with the original ALCS risk over on the Yankees in the World Series....
Of course it's real tough to argue that the Yankees are by far the team to beat this post season.. that's not the issue here. You don't need us to recommend a futures play on New York. The issue is the robbery by your bookie! Don't be a square and fall for the Yankees futures price to win the World Series (currently -105)... We are going to show you how, at this price, books are raping their players to the tune of an additional 25% juice... it all boils down to simple math and a pretty easily speculated World Series price the Yankees will lay if they do beat the Angels.
For round number purposes, we're going to use $1,000 as our "futures" bet on NY to win the World Series. If you simply succumb to your bookmakers futures line of NYY -105 to win the Series, you'll net a profit of $952 for your $1,000 risk ($952 x 1.05 = $1,000). But if you bet your risk amount now on the Yankees -195 / LAA in the ALCS with the intention of rolling the entire proceeds, including your original $1,000 risk, over to the Yankees in the World Series, NY would have to be greater than a -350 favorite for you to make less than your $952 you would have stood to make in your futures play now.
Considering that NY opened at -210 against the Angels and was immediately bet down to -185 before creeping back up to -195 today, there's no way the Yankees, if they indeed do get to the World Series, will be anywhere near a -350 favorite. We estimate them to go off at around -200 to -250 against either the Phillies or the Dodgers. If NY is -200, the payout on your $1,000 risk will be $1,270: the $512 profit from the ALCS (NYY -195: Risk $1,000 to win $512 in the ALCS) + the $756 profit after rolling the $512 ALCS profit + the original $1,000 risk on to NYY -200 in the Series (that's one third more money in your pocket for the same exact risk: $952 x 1.333 = $1,269).
And even if the Yanks go off higher, there's still big value because there's no way they'll ever go off anywhere near the -350 mark as explained above is what it will take to prove this method of betting NY to win the WS incorrect.... Here are the other price scenarios:
Remember, with $1,000 risked on the Yanks -195 in the ALCS, you're making $512 profit so in each of the following examples your WS bet (risk) will be $1,512:
NYY -225: Risk $1,512 to win $671... $1,183 profit as opposed to $952... 24% more
NYY -250: Risk $1,512 to win $604... $1,116 profit as opposed to $952... 17% more
NYY -275: Risk $1,512 to win $550... $1,062 profit as opposed to $952... 12% more
NYY -300: Risk $1,512 to win $503... $1,015 profit as opposed to $952... 7% more
So you see, the "easy" looking bet of NY -105 for the series is not a fair price, and with a little manipulation and ingenuity, we once again are beating the bookmakers at their own game... the game of advantages!! It's thinking like this that has enabled us to have the success we did this year in MLB. In closing remember, although we do like NY to win it all this season, there really is no value in the price of -105 right now, but there is great value in what we anticipate once the post season whittles down to the remaining 2 and we are left holding a NY Series ticket at a price range between +101 and +127!
Good luck and enjoy the Fall Classic!
Thursday 10/15: PENDING (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Series Play (Parlay): Risk 2 Units
Parlay: NY Yankees -185 / LA Angels & LA Dodgers -130 Risk 2 Units to win 3.46 Units
Please note that we are parlaying the Yankees & Dodgers to each win their series... we are passing on tonight's Philadelphia - LAD NLCS game 1.
Value wise, this is the only way for us to play these 2 series plays because in order to win the same as our 2 Unit parlay risk (3.46 Units), we'd have to risk over 5 Units (about 2.6 Units on each series), and if we split, we'd lose between 0.5/Unit - 1 Unit anyway. This way we're cutting our exposure by two thirds.
Thursday 10/15: PENDING (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Series Play (Parlay): Risk 2 Units
Parlay: NY Yankees -185 / LA Angels & LA Dodgers -130 Risk 2 Units to win 3.46 Units
Please note that we are parlaying the Yankees & Dodgers to each win their series... we are passing on tonight's Philadelphia - LAD NLCS game 1.
Value wise, this is the only way for us to play these 2 series plays because in order to win the same as our 2 Unit parlay risk (3.46 Units), we'd have to risk over 5 Units (about 2.6 Units on each series), and if we split, we'd lose between 0.5/Unit - 1 Unit anyway. This way we're cutting our exposure by two thirds.