2009 MLB Results
Click here for full season results
Week: 10/04 - 10/11
-5.89 Units (Volume: 9.75 Units)
Sunday 10/11: -1.50 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)
NY Yankees - Minnesota 2 plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Minnesota (Pavano) +1.5 Runs (-110) / NY Yankees (Pettitte) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 1 NY Yankees 4 Lose
Parlay: Minnesota +160 & Under 9.5 Runs (-112) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.96 Units
Minnesota 1 NY Yankees 4 Lose
Well, the stage is set for Carl Pavano to face his former employer for the first time since becoming a Twin. Pavano started twice this season for Cleveland against the Yankees but despite pitching very well (13 1/3 innings, 11 hits, 1 walk & just 4 ER's: 2.70 ERA & 0.90 WHIP), he did not factor in the decision in either of those games (Cleveland won 1 & lost 1).
Pavano was a key factor in Minnesota's late season run which won them the AL Central by the slimmest of margins. Even though Pavano was just 4-4 W/L in his 11 Minnesota starts, the Twins as a team won 8 of the 11 and more importantly, 5 of the last 6 down the stretch (since 9/9).
We haven't had any cooperation in either of our previous 2 releases in this series (-1 Unit in game 1: Minn & under, & -2 Units in game 2: NYY -1.5 and a parlay of NYY (ML) & Under but the Yanks won a 1 run low scoring game and we lost both). We'd like to avoid going on tilt in this series, but the risk/reward here is definitely worth he 1.5 Unit investment. We stand to make nearly 3 Units overall (2.87), and the best part is Minnesota can lose a 1 run game (and be swept), and we'll still come out with a 0.41/Unit profit. We feel Minnesota will hang tough at home and force a game 4 at home, especially with the added motivation driving Pavano and the fact that he has handled the NY line-up earlier this season. The Twins know that with a win here, anything can happen in a short series.
Friday 10/09: -1.09 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)
Minnesota - NY Yankees 2 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
NY Yankees (Burnett) -1.5 Runs (-145) / Minnesota (Blackburn) 6:07 ET 1 Unit
NY Yankees 4 Minnesota 3 Lose
Parlay: NY Yankees (ML) -290 & Over 9.5 Runs (-110) Risk 1 Unit to win 1.57 Units
NY Yankees 4 Minnesota 3 Lose
We stand to make 2.26 Units here for our 2 Unit risk. Not a bad return considering NY is close to a 3:1 favorite on the money line. As we've done all season, we're playing our thinking and in turn manipulating the odds in our favor. The only thing we must avoid here is a NY 1 run, low scoring win, which we feel will not be the case. And as long as we win our run line play, we're guaranteed a profit... the parlay is a bonus.
Nick Blackburn has been pitching way over his head lately. In his last 4 outings, Blackburn has a 1.00 WHIP along with a 1.66 ERA (5 ER's in 27 1/3 innings), and considering his ERA this season is 4.07, and he's been known to get knocked around (especially the second half of the season: 6 times since the All Star break Blackburn's gotten hammered). We feel this is the perfect spot for the Yankees to continue their offensive dominance on a far inferior team.
Under 8 Runs (-110) Boston (Beckett) / LA Angels (Weaver) 9:37 ET 1 Unit
Boston 1 LA Angels 4 Winner
Thursday 10/08: +0.95 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
LA Angels (Lackey) -105 / Boston (Lester) 9:37 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 5 Boston 0 Winner
Wednesday 10/07: -4.25 Units (Volume: 4.25 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Colorado (Jimenez) / Philadelphia (Lee) 2:37 ET 1.25 Units
Colorado 1 Philadelphia 5 Lose
Minnesota - NY Yankees 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Minnesota (Duensing) +340 / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 6:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Minnesota 2 NY Yankees 7 Lose
Parlay: Minnesota +340 & Under 9.5 Runs (-110) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 3.70 Units
Minnesota 2 NY Yankees 7 Lose
This is CC Sabathia's time of the year... this is why the Yankees went out and got him for an ungodly amount of money... to win when it counts! So why are we playing Minnesota? There are several reasons...
First, the Twins are in a groove now. The MLB postseason is all about getting hot at the right time, and I think it's safe to say that winning 5 straight and 17 of their last 21 to steal the AL Central from the Tigers qualifies Minnesota in the "hot category!" Sure, they're tired (both physically & emotionally) after playing a 12 inning one game playoff for the division last night in Minneapolis, but this team is on a high right now that can't be matched. Often times its that head of steam that is needed to elevate a big underdog.
Also, Sabathia got shelled his last time out. He didn't make it out of the 3rd inning giving up 8 hits, 5 walks & 5 ER's! Granted it was a meaningless game (the last game of the season in TB), but its not like he tried to get shelled... there very well may be something wrong with him... we'll see.
But either way, to risk just 1 unit in this spot for a possible payout of 5.40 Units is swell worth it. Also, Brian Duensing has been solid since coming out of the bullpen in late August to start. He's 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA as a starter this season.
St. Louis (Carpenter) -136/ LA Dodgers (Wolf) 9:37 ET 2 Units
St. Louis 3 LA Dodgers 5 Lose
There's a reason you have to lay a hefty road price of -136 here to a team with a better regular season record... Chris Carpenter! Many times you'll hear us talk about a pitcher saying that "when so an so is on, he's un-hittable..." but in the case of Chris Carpenter, he's "on" about 95% of the time! Of his 28 starts this season, Carpenter's given up 0 runs 9 times and just 1 run 6 times!! He's struck out 144 batters this season while walking only 38 (4:1) and his ERA is a blistering 2.24! The only way we see LA beating Carpenter tonight is with a flawless outing b Randy Wolf, but considering he's allowed 4 or more ER's 9 times this season (vs only 3 by Carpenter), we like our chances here.
Click here for full season results
Week: 10/04 - 10/11
-5.89 Units (Volume: 9.75 Units)
Sunday 10/11: -1.50 Units (Volume: 1.50 Units)
NY Yankees - Minnesota 2 plays Total Risk 1.5 Units
Minnesota (Pavano) +1.5 Runs (-110) / NY Yankees (Pettitte) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 1 NY Yankees 4 Lose
Parlay: Minnesota +160 & Under 9.5 Runs (-112) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.96 Units
Minnesota 1 NY Yankees 4 Lose
Well, the stage is set for Carl Pavano to face his former employer for the first time since becoming a Twin. Pavano started twice this season for Cleveland against the Yankees but despite pitching very well (13 1/3 innings, 11 hits, 1 walk & just 4 ER's: 2.70 ERA & 0.90 WHIP), he did not factor in the decision in either of those games (Cleveland won 1 & lost 1).
Pavano was a key factor in Minnesota's late season run which won them the AL Central by the slimmest of margins. Even though Pavano was just 4-4 W/L in his 11 Minnesota starts, the Twins as a team won 8 of the 11 and more importantly, 5 of the last 6 down the stretch (since 9/9).
We haven't had any cooperation in either of our previous 2 releases in this series (-1 Unit in game 1: Minn & under, & -2 Units in game 2: NYY -1.5 and a parlay of NYY (ML) & Under but the Yanks won a 1 run low scoring game and we lost both). We'd like to avoid going on tilt in this series, but the risk/reward here is definitely worth he 1.5 Unit investment. We stand to make nearly 3 Units overall (2.87), and the best part is Minnesota can lose a 1 run game (and be swept), and we'll still come out with a 0.41/Unit profit. We feel Minnesota will hang tough at home and force a game 4 at home, especially with the added motivation driving Pavano and the fact that he has handled the NY line-up earlier this season. The Twins know that with a win here, anything can happen in a short series.
Friday 10/09: -1.09 Units (Volume: 3.00 Units)
Minnesota - NY Yankees 2 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
NY Yankees (Burnett) -1.5 Runs (-145) / Minnesota (Blackburn) 6:07 ET 1 Unit
NY Yankees 4 Minnesota 3 Lose
Parlay: NY Yankees (ML) -290 & Over 9.5 Runs (-110) Risk 1 Unit to win 1.57 Units
NY Yankees 4 Minnesota 3 Lose
We stand to make 2.26 Units here for our 2 Unit risk. Not a bad return considering NY is close to a 3:1 favorite on the money line. As we've done all season, we're playing our thinking and in turn manipulating the odds in our favor. The only thing we must avoid here is a NY 1 run, low scoring win, which we feel will not be the case. And as long as we win our run line play, we're guaranteed a profit... the parlay is a bonus.
Nick Blackburn has been pitching way over his head lately. In his last 4 outings, Blackburn has a 1.00 WHIP along with a 1.66 ERA (5 ER's in 27 1/3 innings), and considering his ERA this season is 4.07, and he's been known to get knocked around (especially the second half of the season: 6 times since the All Star break Blackburn's gotten hammered). We feel this is the perfect spot for the Yankees to continue their offensive dominance on a far inferior team.
Under 8 Runs (-110) Boston (Beckett) / LA Angels (Weaver) 9:37 ET 1 Unit
Boston 1 LA Angels 4 Winner
Thursday 10/08: +0.95 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
LA Angels (Lackey) -105 / Boston (Lester) 9:37 ET 1 Unit
LA Angels 5 Boston 0 Winner
Wednesday 10/07: -4.25 Units (Volume: 4.25 Units)
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) Colorado (Jimenez) / Philadelphia (Lee) 2:37 ET 1.25 Units
Colorado 1 Philadelphia 5 Lose
Minnesota - NY Yankees 2 Plays Total Risk 1 Unit
Minnesota (Duensing) +340 / NY Yankees (Sabathia) 6:05 ET 0.5/Unit
Minnesota 2 NY Yankees 7 Lose
Parlay: Minnesota +340 & Under 9.5 Runs (-110) Risk 0.5/Unit to win 3.70 Units
Minnesota 2 NY Yankees 7 Lose
This is CC Sabathia's time of the year... this is why the Yankees went out and got him for an ungodly amount of money... to win when it counts! So why are we playing Minnesota? There are several reasons...
First, the Twins are in a groove now. The MLB postseason is all about getting hot at the right time, and I think it's safe to say that winning 5 straight and 17 of their last 21 to steal the AL Central from the Tigers qualifies Minnesota in the "hot category!" Sure, they're tired (both physically & emotionally) after playing a 12 inning one game playoff for the division last night in Minneapolis, but this team is on a high right now that can't be matched. Often times its that head of steam that is needed to elevate a big underdog.
Also, Sabathia got shelled his last time out. He didn't make it out of the 3rd inning giving up 8 hits, 5 walks & 5 ER's! Granted it was a meaningless game (the last game of the season in TB), but its not like he tried to get shelled... there very well may be something wrong with him... we'll see.
But either way, to risk just 1 unit in this spot for a possible payout of 5.40 Units is swell worth it. Also, Brian Duensing has been solid since coming out of the bullpen in late August to start. He's 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA as a starter this season.
St. Louis (Carpenter) -136/ LA Dodgers (Wolf) 9:37 ET 2 Units
St. Louis 3 LA Dodgers 5 Lose
There's a reason you have to lay a hefty road price of -136 here to a team with a better regular season record... Chris Carpenter! Many times you'll hear us talk about a pitcher saying that "when so an so is on, he's un-hittable..." but in the case of Chris Carpenter, he's "on" about 95% of the time! Of his 28 starts this season, Carpenter's given up 0 runs 9 times and just 1 run 6 times!! He's struck out 144 batters this season while walking only 38 (4:1) and his ERA is a blistering 2.24! The only way we see LA beating Carpenter tonight is with a flawless outing b Randy Wolf, but considering he's allowed 4 or more ER's 9 times this season (vs only 3 by Carpenter), we like our chances here.