2009 MLB Results
Click here for full season results
Week: 9/27 - 10/04
+3.87 Units (Volume: 7.50 Units)
Sunday 10/04: +3.29 Units (Volume: 2.50 Units)
Detroit (Verlander) -1.5 Runs (+115) / Chicago WS (Danks)
1:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner
Parlay: Detroit (Verlander) -200 / Chicago WS (Danks) & Over 7.5 Runs (-105)
1:05 ET Risk 0.5/ Unit to Win 0.96/Unit
Detroit 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner
Parlay: Detroit (Verlander) -200 / Chicago WS (Danks) &
Minnesota (Pavano) -220 / Kansas City (Hochevar) 1:05 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 1.18 Units
Detroit 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner | Minnesota 13 Kansas City 4 Winner | Parlay Winner
Be sure to read our plays carefully as they may be a bit confusing at a glance.
It's amazing that we're revisiting the AL Central after all business seemed to be decided when the Twins and Tigers split their 4 game series thus leaving the magic number for Detroit to clinch at 1 with 3 games to play... but here we are as the only possible scenario to get us here happened: Minnesota won their last 2 over the Royals while Detroit dropped their last 2 to the White Sox. Both teams control their own destiny. With both teams doing the same as the other today, there will be a one game playoff for the division on Tuesday.
We're on both teams to win as you can see as Justin Verlander gets the start for Detroit and Carl Pavano for the Twins. You'll recall we've been on Pavano in both of his last 2 starts... both very important outings. The first was on 9/25 against these Royals as Minnesota was making their move. They had won 9 of their last 10 and were steadily gaining ground on Detroit. Every game was crucial at that point and we cited how this was Carl Pavano's chance to shine for his new team, especially since his contract with the Twins relies heavily on his production. This is the case of course because of Pavano's situation in NY with the Yankees, so now it's "... produce or we're not going to pay you..." Pavano won that game and was given the ball next in the crucial third game of the Tigers series after the two teams split the first 2. Minnesota desperately needed to win the next 2 games to keep in control of their own destiny but Pavano got rocked for 7 hits, 2 walks and 7 ER's in just 4 2/3 innings (2-7 Lose). That was on the 9/30, so he's coming back on 4 days' rest but only threw 83 pitches. All the stops will be pulled out by both teams here so Pavano will be asked to get them to the 6th with a shot before turning it over o the bullpen. So here is Carl Pavano's chance once again to come through big time for his team which we think he will take seriously and turn in a career performance.
But our main play is Detroit... all 3 of our plays hinge on the Tigers winning. We're at risk for a total of 2.50 Units with a possible upside of 3.29 Units. We feel the Tigers will get to John Danks early en route to a big win. With Detroit covering our 1 Unit ML play (+1.15 Units), our total risk is reduced to just 0.35/Unit, but if the Detroit - WS game also goes over, we're guaranteed a 1.11 Unit profit regardless of Minnesota's outcome.
Saturday 10/03: +1.48 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
LA Dodgers (Kershaw) -135 / Colorado (De La Rosa) 10:10 ET 2 Units
LA Dodgers 5 Colorado 0 Winner
The biggest game of the season thus far for both clubs. A Colorado win would force a one game showdown tomorrow in LA with the winner taking the NL West. As well as Colorado has played down the stretch, we just can't see them finishing by sweeping LA in LA. Sure, on paper that looks like a tall order but considering Colorado already won the first game, a win tonight will mean just one more. You can be sure Joe Torre is going to pull out all the stops to prevent that from happening. Clayton Kershaw gets the start for LA and it'll be Jorge De La Rosa for the Rockies. De La Rosa has been showing some signs of fatigue lately as he's given up 10 hits, 6 walks & 9 ERs in his last 2 starts (just 7.1 innings of work), yet the Rockies have managed to win both of those games. We feel this is the end of the NL west road tonight for Colorado as LA clinches behind Clayton Kerswaw.
Wednesday 9/30: -1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Minnesota (Pavano) -111 / Detroit (Bonine) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 2 Detroit 7 Lose
Just as anticipated last week (Fri. 9/25) when we were on the Twins in Pavano's last start, tonight is the most important start Pavano has had in years. A loss will just about finish the Twins off as they'd drop to 3 games behind Detroit with 4 games to play, but a win will keep them in control of their own destiny. Pavano's contract with Minnesota relies heavily on performance (after he shafted the Yankees!), so to win tonight would be huge for him after winning a key game against KC Friday (9-4 F) which kept the gap manageable.
Tuesday 9/29: -1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Detroit (Verlander) -1.5 Runs (+125) / Minnesota (Duensing) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 6 Minnestota 5 Lose
Not about to lay -160 to a team on a roll (Minnesota closed the AL Central gap to 1 game with their 3-2 win this afternoon in game #1 DH). We'd have to risk twice as much (2 Units) for the same +1.25 Unit payout. Value here lies only in the run line.
Monday 9/28: +1.10 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Atlanta (Jurrjens) -1.5 Runs (+110) / Florida (Sanchez) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 4 Florida 0 Winner
Click here for full season results
Week: 9/27 - 10/04
+3.87 Units (Volume: 7.50 Units)
Sunday 10/04: +3.29 Units (Volume: 2.50 Units)
Detroit (Verlander) -1.5 Runs (+115) / Chicago WS (Danks)
1:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner
Parlay: Detroit (Verlander) -200 / Chicago WS (Danks) & Over 7.5 Runs (-105)
1:05 ET Risk 0.5/ Unit to Win 0.96/Unit
Detroit 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner
Parlay: Detroit (Verlander) -200 / Chicago WS (Danks) &
Minnesota (Pavano) -220 / Kansas City (Hochevar) 1:05 ET Risk 1 Unit to win 1.18 Units
Detroit 5 Chicago WS 3 Winner | Minnesota 13 Kansas City 4 Winner | Parlay Winner
Be sure to read our plays carefully as they may be a bit confusing at a glance.
It's amazing that we're revisiting the AL Central after all business seemed to be decided when the Twins and Tigers split their 4 game series thus leaving the magic number for Detroit to clinch at 1 with 3 games to play... but here we are as the only possible scenario to get us here happened: Minnesota won their last 2 over the Royals while Detroit dropped their last 2 to the White Sox. Both teams control their own destiny. With both teams doing the same as the other today, there will be a one game playoff for the division on Tuesday.
We're on both teams to win as you can see as Justin Verlander gets the start for Detroit and Carl Pavano for the Twins. You'll recall we've been on Pavano in both of his last 2 starts... both very important outings. The first was on 9/25 against these Royals as Minnesota was making their move. They had won 9 of their last 10 and were steadily gaining ground on Detroit. Every game was crucial at that point and we cited how this was Carl Pavano's chance to shine for his new team, especially since his contract with the Twins relies heavily on his production. This is the case of course because of Pavano's situation in NY with the Yankees, so now it's "... produce or we're not going to pay you..." Pavano won that game and was given the ball next in the crucial third game of the Tigers series after the two teams split the first 2. Minnesota desperately needed to win the next 2 games to keep in control of their own destiny but Pavano got rocked for 7 hits, 2 walks and 7 ER's in just 4 2/3 innings (2-7 Lose). That was on the 9/30, so he's coming back on 4 days' rest but only threw 83 pitches. All the stops will be pulled out by both teams here so Pavano will be asked to get them to the 6th with a shot before turning it over o the bullpen. So here is Carl Pavano's chance once again to come through big time for his team which we think he will take seriously and turn in a career performance.
But our main play is Detroit... all 3 of our plays hinge on the Tigers winning. We're at risk for a total of 2.50 Units with a possible upside of 3.29 Units. We feel the Tigers will get to John Danks early en route to a big win. With Detroit covering our 1 Unit ML play (+1.15 Units), our total risk is reduced to just 0.35/Unit, but if the Detroit - WS game also goes over, we're guaranteed a 1.11 Unit profit regardless of Minnesota's outcome.
Saturday 10/03: +1.48 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
LA Dodgers (Kershaw) -135 / Colorado (De La Rosa) 10:10 ET 2 Units
LA Dodgers 5 Colorado 0 Winner
The biggest game of the season thus far for both clubs. A Colorado win would force a one game showdown tomorrow in LA with the winner taking the NL West. As well as Colorado has played down the stretch, we just can't see them finishing by sweeping LA in LA. Sure, on paper that looks like a tall order but considering Colorado already won the first game, a win tonight will mean just one more. You can be sure Joe Torre is going to pull out all the stops to prevent that from happening. Clayton Kershaw gets the start for LA and it'll be Jorge De La Rosa for the Rockies. De La Rosa has been showing some signs of fatigue lately as he's given up 10 hits, 6 walks & 9 ERs in his last 2 starts (just 7.1 innings of work), yet the Rockies have managed to win both of those games. We feel this is the end of the NL west road tonight for Colorado as LA clinches behind Clayton Kerswaw.
Wednesday 9/30: -1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Minnesota (Pavano) -111 / Detroit (Bonine) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Minnesota 2 Detroit 7 Lose
Just as anticipated last week (Fri. 9/25) when we were on the Twins in Pavano's last start, tonight is the most important start Pavano has had in years. A loss will just about finish the Twins off as they'd drop to 3 games behind Detroit with 4 games to play, but a win will keep them in control of their own destiny. Pavano's contract with Minnesota relies heavily on performance (after he shafted the Yankees!), so to win tonight would be huge for him after winning a key game against KC Friday (9-4 F) which kept the gap manageable.
Tuesday 9/29: -1.00 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Detroit (Verlander) -1.5 Runs (+125) / Minnesota (Duensing) 7:05 ET 1 Unit
Detroit 6 Minnestota 5 Lose
Not about to lay -160 to a team on a roll (Minnesota closed the AL Central gap to 1 game with their 3-2 win this afternoon in game #1 DH). We'd have to risk twice as much (2 Units) for the same +1.25 Unit payout. Value here lies only in the run line.
Monday 9/28: +1.10 Units (Volume: 1.00 Units)
Atlanta (Jurrjens) -1.5 Runs (+110) / Florida (Sanchez) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Atlanta 4 Florida 0 Winner