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Over 190.5 Boston / LA Clippers 9:30 ET 2 Units
Boston 90 LA Clippers 92 Lose
Sunday 12/27 NBA 2 Half Play: +1.82 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Detroit -3.5 / Toronto (2H) 2 Units
Detroit 54 Toronto 42 Winner
Detroit is down 41-60 in the 1H thus giving us a full game line of Detroit +15.5.
Sunday 12/27 NBA (Early start): -1.09 Uints (Volume: 3.00 Units)
Detroit +3 / Toronto 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Detroit 95 Toronto 102 Lose
Over 193 Detroit / Toronto 1 Unit
Detroit 95 Toronto 102 Winner
Parlay: Detroit (ML) +135 & Over 193 Risk 0.5/Unit to Win 1.74 Units
Detroit 95 Toronto 102 Lose
We've done well of late playing the Under in these Sunday early afternoon games in Toronto citing that Toronto has one of the entertaining night lifes of all NBA cities, so having to be out of bed in the early AM to play ball after a Saturday night out on the town usually means shots are a bit off, especially early on. But today we have a situation that trumps this: Toronto held Detroit to just 64 points in the last game (for both of these teams (12/23)) and games following such a defensive effort usually are high scoring due to the tremendous amount of energy it takes to hold an NBA team in the 60's... tough to repeat that intensity. Also, Toronto is coming off of shooting 54% from the floor in their last game (Detroit) and 2 games ago (12/18 / NJ Nets), the Raptors shot 59% in a 118-95 rout. Overly high shooting performances have a way of coming down, so with this combination of situations today in Toronto, we're risking a total of 3 Units with an upside of just over 4 Units. With a Detroit +3 cover, our risk is cut to 0.13/Unit and with the game going over it's down to just over 1 Unit.
Saturday 12/26 NBA (Night games): -2.63 Units (Volume: 5.50 Units)
Milwaukee +2.5 / San Antonio 8:30 ET 1.25 Units
Milwaukee 97 San Antonio 112 Lose
Over 203 Philadelphia / Utah 9:00 ET 1.50 Units
Philadelphia 76 Utah 97 Lose
Sacramento +6.5 / LA Lakers 10:00 ET 1.25 Units
Sacramento 103 LA Lakers 112 (2OT) Lose
Over 233.5 Phoenix / Golden State 10:30 ET 1.50 Units
Phoenix 127 Golden State 132 Winner
Friday 12/25 NBA (Early release): -2.00 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
Over 197.5 Miami / NY Knicks 12:00 Noon ET 2.00 Units
Miami 93 NY Knicks 87 Lose
Extremely soft line here due to recent play of both teams. These teams met 3 times over the past 10 months with the average total being 210.5 and the same outcome each time: Over with an average of 227 points each game. But with the recent poor shooting by the Knicks (42% from the floor over their last 5 games... all staying under the total) and the shockingly low scoring game for the Heat Wednesday against Utah (80-70 F), the linemaker really has no choice but to shade this total low. As you know, we were on the Over in that Wednesday night game in Miami citing that we felt with the recent schedules of both the Heat & Jazz going into that game (Utah finishing a long road trip & Miami finishing a long home-stand.... both looking forward to travelling after Wednesday's game) that very little defense would be played.
It takes much more energy to play defense than offense in the NBA, so this morning (early afternoon) after making the trip last night to NY and after spending plenty of energy on "D" Wednesday holding Utah to just 70 points, the Heat will try and contain a New York team ready to bust out of their shooting slump. Add to the mix an upset Miami forward Michael Beasley taking offense to criticism in the press for Wade not having the proper support and this one has "track meet / highlight film" written all over it.
Friday 12/25 NBA (2nd Report): -2.36 Units (Volume: 4.75 Units)
LA Lakers -6 / Cleveland 5:00 ET 1.5 Units
LA Lakers 87 Cleveland 106 Lose
Under 194 Cleveland / LA Lakers 1.25 Units
Cleveland 106 LA Lakers 87 Winner
There's no doubt that this is the Marquee match-up of the day. Don't let the fat -6 scare you. The Lakers are hitting on all cylinders this season with a league best 23-4 record. True they're only 12-15 ATS, but today they face a tired Cleveland team finishing up a 4 city 6 day western swing playing 3 very tough road games: Dallas (95-102 L 12/20), Phoenix (109-91 W 12/21) and most recently on Wednesday taking Sacramento to OT in a miraculous cover for the Cavs as they shut out the Kings in the extra period 13-0 (117-104 W).
We expect a total domination by LA today on both sides of the ball in front of their star studded home crowd while playing on national TV. These are the moments that Kobe Bryant plays for and we look for him to put to rest (for the moment) the debate of who the best player in the NBA is.
Under 195.5 Denver / Portland 10:30 ET 2 Units
Denver 96 Portland 107 Lose
We've got it all working for us here... Last 5 between these 2 have gone Under an average line of 199 by an average of 10 ppg. Sure, tonight's line is a couple of buckets lower but for good reason. This is a rare Christmas night game which means the players (especially Portland since they're home) have had the entire day to spend with family & friends and all that goes along with holiday festivities: getting up early with the kids and later on indulging in all the rich food and drink. Can't see these teams wanting to get up and down the court much tonight, and it doesn't hurt the fact that Denver is coming off of a 54% shooting performance in their last game (home against Atlanta... 20 point blowout winner 124-104) on Wednesday.
Friday 12/25 NCAAB: +2.32 Units (Volume: 2.00 Units)
USC-UNLV 2 Plays Total Risk 2.00 Units
USC +5.5 / UNLV 9:30 ET 1.50 Units
USC 67 UNLV 56 Winner
Parlay: USC (ML) +190 & Over 123 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.22 Units
USC 67 UNLV 56 Side Winner Total: Push (+0.95/Unit)
Thursday 12/24 PASS +/-0.00 Units (Volume: 0.00 Units)