Sunday 04/04 NBA: +1.69 Units (Volume 5.00 Units)

Boston -1.5 / Cleveland 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 117 Cleveland 113 Winner
Linemaker's giving the Cavs way too much respect here. Sure they're a great team and own the best record in basketball (60-16), but Boston is no slouch. Despite losing three straight (SU) and 5 of their last 6 (ATS), the Celtics are one of the elite teams in the league with a healthy, veteran roster... and they're laying just -1.5 at home (was -1 earlier but Cleveland's Varejao is now listed as out). Not saying it's a bad number to accomplish what a number is supposed to accomplish, but because of the big picture we can play a quality team at close to pick-em in a game they're sure to be zoned in on.

As mentioned, this is a veteran Celtic team playing at home on national TV looking to beat Cleveland for just the second time in over a year. The Cavs have won the 3 of last 4 meetings by an average of 20 ppg but we're looking for a different outcome today as Boston rises to another level in the national spotlight and throws the kitchen sink at Cleveland on the defensive end (we won't play the under though as the intentional fouling session at the end of the game may get crazy in a game like this).

An interesting note on the Cavs is that 3 of their 16 losses this season came at the hands of one of the best defensive teams in the game: Larry Brown's Charlotte Bobcats, and on any given day this veteran Celtic team can defend with the best of them and that is what will get them the win this afternoon.

LA Lakers -4.5 / San Antonio 3:30 ET 1.50 Units
LA Lakers 81 San Antonio 100 Lose
LA got past their first game home after being on the road for 10 days (it's always tough getting re-acclimated to your home surroundings after being away for so long and often times this is a temporary distraction for players). But LA handled the Jazz with ease on Friday 106-92 (we won with Under 203.5 in that game). Now that they got past that hurdle, we look for LA to finish the regular season strong, especially against a team they very well be meeting in the playoffs soon. With the Lakers next game on until Thursday in Denver (the Late TNT game... another nationally televised game), we look for them to hold nothing back here against the aging Spurs who are playing their 5th game in 8 days 93rd on the road). You'll recall we were on San Antonio Friday over Orlando (112-100 Winner), but that was in a spot catching the Magic on the tail end of a Texas back to back having played in Dallas the previous night. we also mentioned Friday how we feel this Spurs team, despite their age, seem to be peaking at the right time and may very well make it deep into the playoffs, but there are always spots in a teams schedule, based on recent events, that warrant a temporary deviation from our overall assessment of a team and this is one of them for the Spurs. In their last 2 games, SA shot a combined 54% from the field, a stat that we're certain will come down today.

Minnesota +13 / Oklahoma City 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Minnesota 108 Oklahoma City 116 Winner
Big letdown spot for this young Thunder team as they just finished a 3-0 (SU & ATS) road sweep of Philly, Boston & the Mavs. Their win in Dallas last night clinched a playoff spot for OKC, and with a one day trip to Utah on deck on Tuesday befoe coming home to play Denver & Phoenix Wednesday & Friday, can't see the Thunder being too interested in the T'Wolves tonight in between holiday festivities... not a good spot to lay -13 especially since Minnesota keeps playing hard despite having won just 15 games this season.

Saturday 04/03 NBA: -5.86 Units (Volume 8.25 Units)

Philadelphia +4.5 / Toronto 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Philadelphia 123 Toronto 128 Lose
Under 205 Toronto / Philadelphia 1.00 Unit
Toronto 128 Philadelphia 123 Lose
Parlay: Philadelphia (ML) +170 & Under 205 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.12 Units
Philadelphia 123 Toronto 128 Lose
Total risk of 3 Units with a possible upside of +4.40 Units with plays that all are dependent on each other thus creating some nice value, and with at least a split of Philly & Under, our risk is reduced to just 1.09 Units.

Toronto is battling to hang on to the last playoff spot in the East as Chicago is right on their tails just  2 games back with 7 games to play, so the pressure is clearly on the Raptors especially since Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 after losing 10 straight.

Heading into this afternoon's game in Philly, Toronto is coming off of  back to back wins: on the road Monday (103-101) over Charlotte as 9 point dogs and then Wednesday at home (114-92) over the Clippers. In Wednesday's game, Toronto shot a staggering 61% from the field in that 22 point blowout. As is often the case following such impressive wins by a mediocre team, we expect Toronto to have an off day shooting and very likely this is a spot where they come back down to earth and lose outright on the road.

Over 201.5 New Orleans / New Jersey 7:30 ET 1.25 Units
New Orleans 87 New Jersey 115 Winner

Over 191 Miami / Minnesota 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Miami 97 Minnesota 84 Lose

Over 185.5 Charlotte / Chicago 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Charlotte 88 Chicago 96 Lose

Denver -14 / LA Clippers 9:00 ET 1.50 Units
Denver 98 LA Clippers 90 Lose


Saturday 04/03 NCAAB: -0.36 Units (Volume 2.75 Units)

NCAA Tournament - Final Four
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

Butler -1 / Michigan State 6:07 ET 1.25 Units
Butler 52 Michigan State 50 Winner
This is the end of the line for Tom Izzo's bag of tricks... You can get by on lucky shots and miracle finishes for only so long before the rug is pulled out from under you. Sure, MSU has been here before and Izzo has the big experience edge, but what a run for Butler... 18 straight wins. Yes, Butler is only 8-10 ATS in that stretch, but many of those non covers were games the Bulldogs were laying double digits, so an argument can certainly be made for Butler playing smart basketball as they paced themselves throughout the season, understanding the meaning of conserving energy. Look for "The Butler" to do it again tonight...

Under 131 West Virginia / Duke 8:47 ET 1.50 Units
West Virginia 57 Duke 78 Lose

Wednesday 03/31 NBA: -0.56 Units (Volume 7.25 Units)

Under 194.5 LA Lakers / Atlanta 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
LA Lakers 92 Atlanta 109 Lose

Detroit +7 / Miami 7:30 ET 2.00 Units
Detroit 81 Miami 98 Lose
Parlay: Detroit (ML) +240 & Under 187.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.75 Units
Detroit 81 Miami 98 Lose
It's extremely tough in the NBA to hold teams to the low 70's, especially 3 times in the last 4 games like Miami did and for that reason we were on the Heat Overs a couple of times last week and lost both as the Heat just kept defending.

With tonight's game, beside not expecting Miami's defensive intensity to continue, we also expect their shooting to cool off. Miami has shot better than 50% in each of their last 4 games... so for this reason we really can't back the Over, but we feel Detroit, who has put 100+ on the board in their last 2 games and 4 of their last 6, will continue to dictate tempo. A Piston outright win is very likely tonight with Miami held to below 90, making this parlay a nice piece of value at 5.5:1 (2.75 Units for our half Unit risked). So we stand to make +4.57 Units overall and are guaranteed a +1.32 Unit profit with a Piston +7 Cover.

Utah -13 / Golden State 10:00 ET 2.00 Units
Utah 128 Golden State 104 Winner
Under 232.5 GS / Utah 1.50 Units
Golden State 104 Utah 128  Winner
The Warriors got a rare road win at the Clippers Sunday night (121-103) on 53% shooting. Tonight will be a tough challenge against a solid Jazz team, winners of 7 of their last 9 (6-3 ATS), and surely looking to get playoff ready on defense. Look for Utah to hold GS below 100 just as they did back on 2/19 (100-89 in GS). In that game the total was 221.5... 11 points less than tonight. The reason for the adjustment is clearly a case of recent performance by this Warriors team, but as is usually the case, what gos up must come down, and as stated, Utah will be looking to sharpen up on defense with the Lakers on deck (Friday night in LA) and the playoffs right around the corner.

Monday 03/29 NBA: -2.00 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)

Over 191 San Antonio / NJ Nets 7:30 ET 2.00 Units
San Antonio 84 NJ Nets 90 Lose
After last night's rout of the Celtics in a game that the Spurs held Boston to just 73 points on 37% shooting, we can't see San Antonio wasting any precious energy on the hapless Nets. The only thing a bad team like New Jersey has to play for at this juncture of the season is to see how many points they can hang on an NBA title contender. Look for an extremely loose game tonight as the Spurs have bigger fish to fry later in the week (Houston, Orlando & the Lakers Wednesday, Friday & Sunday).