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Week: 2/15 - 2/21
-10.94 Units (Volume: 75.25 Units)
Arizona State -2 / Arizona 5:30 ET 1.25 Units
Arizona State 73 Arizona 69 Winner
Virginia Tech +13 / Duke 7:45 ET 2.00 Units
Virginia Tech 55 Duke 67 Winner
Under 141 Virginia Tech / Duke 1.50 Unit
Virginia Tech 55 Duke 67 Winner
Money-Line Play: Virginia Tech (ML) +700 Risk 1 Unit to win 7.00 Units
Virginia Tech 55 Duke 67 Lose
College basketball is a crazy game and upsets happen all the time. This is, we feel, an incredible overlay on the money-line. It's absurd to give a 21-4 team this kind of price. Sure it's a tall order to win on Duke's home floor, but not impossible at all.
Sunday 2/21 NBA: -2.62 Units (Volume 10.75 Units)
Boston +4.5 / Denver 3:30 ET 1.25 Units
Boston 105 Denver 114 Lose
Over 198 Boston / Denver 1.50 Units
Boston 105 Denver 114 Winner
Parlay: Boston (ML) +165 & Over 198 Risk 0.5 Unit to win 2.03 Units
Boston 105 Denver 114 Lose
We're looking for the Celtics to continue their post All Star break run this afternoon in Denver. The addition of Nate Robinson will prove to be a winner in Boston given some time for Nate to get worked in.... many times mid season trades take some time to get players acclimated to new systems, just ask the Cavs as they got blasted in Charlotte last night (93-110) in Antwan Jamison's debut (2 points, 0-12 FG in 26 min). Robinson won't be making his debut until next week as he's been battling the flu. The trade that acquired Robinson has sent Eddie House to NY which makes for a peaceful Ray Allen no longer having to worry about being the one to go. Since the trade deadline passed, Allen has hit stride scoring 45 points in 2 games.
This game will be a real test for Boston as it's their 4th game in 6 days on the road and they have to play in the thin air of the Mile High City, but championship caliber teams win in these spots and they are catching the Nuggets during a flat time having won just 5 of their last 10 including a terrible loss in Washington last night (97-107), this coming after an impressive 118-116 OT win in Cleveland Thursday.
Both Boston and Denver are road weary having played away from home Thursday & Friday and now face off in an early afternoon game with just one day of rest. When teams are tired, the first thing to go is the defense which is why we're on the over here, and we feel Boston will dig down deep to do what it takes to get this road win in the Pepsi Center.
Over 192.5 Memphis / NJ Nets 6:00 ET 1.50 Units
Memphis 104 NJ Nets 94 Winner
Minnesota +5 / Oklahoma City 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Minnesota 107 Oklahoma City 109 Winner
We were on these T' Wolves Friday against the Bulls in a heartbreaking loss (94-100 as 2 point dogs). Minnesota hung around all night and wee within a point heading to the 4Q. In fact, Minnesota "hangs around" in many of their games and we feel they're a year away from respectability. They recently put together a 4 game winning streak (right before the break) beating the Clippers, nicks, Dallas on the road & Memphis. Sure they've lost 5 since but tonight they're hosting a Thunder team in a certain look ahead spot. OKC plays the high flying Suns at home on Tuesday and then immediately travels to San Antonio to play the Spurs on Thursday, so we can't see them taking today too seriously as they'll be looking to keep some fuel in the tank.
Over 217 Sacramento / Phoenix 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Sacramento 88 Phoenix 104 Lose
Line-maker's now over-adjusting here due to the recent string of Phoenix Unders (7 straight). In the last two seasons these teams have met 7 time with an average posted total of 226... don't rely on recent stats here... look for the Suns to run all night and play no defense. They put in their defensive effort of the month Friday in holding Atlanta to just 80 points (88-80). This line is off 8-10 points...
Portland -1 / Utah 10:30 ET 1.25 Units
Portland 93 Utah 89 Lose
Over 192 Utah / Portland 1.50 Units
Portland 93 Utah 89 Lose
Utah wraps up a four game road trip in Portland tonight having won their last three including 100-89 in Golden State Friday. This is the 4th game in 6 nights on the road for the Jazz while the Blazers are much more rested having played just twice since the break. Look for a tired Jazz team to abort the defensive end and get outlasted by the rested Blazers.
Saturday 2/20 NBA: -6.00 Units (Volume 6.00 Units)
Philadelphia +5 / Chicago 8:00 ET 1.50 Units
Philadelphia 90 Chicago 122 Lose
Under 197 Philadelphia / Chicago 1.00 Unit
Philadelphia 90 Chicago 122 Lose
Parlay: Philadelphia (ML) +170 & Under 197 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.08 Units
Philadelphia 90 Chicago 122 Lose
Dallas -10.5 / Miami 8:30 ET 2 Units
Dallas 97 Miami 91 Lose
Over 202 Sacramento / LA Clippers 10:30 ET 1.00 Unit
Sacramento 89 LA Clippers 99 Lose
Saturday 2/20 NCAAB: -6.58 Units (Volume 14.50 Units)
#627 Morgan State +12.5 / Murray State 12:00 Noon ET 1.25 Units
Morgan State 66 Murray State 75 Winner
#524 Purdue -12 / Illinois 4:00 ET 1.25 Units
Purdue 75 illinois 65 Lose
#547 Under 124.5 Stanford / Oregon State 3:00 ET 1.25 Units
Stanford 65 Oregon State 55 Winner
#551 Alabama +2 / Georgia 4:00 ET 1.50 Units
Alabama 70 Georgia 76 Lose
#553 Over 126.5 Mississippi State / LSU 4:00 ET 1.25 Units
Mssissippi State 60 LSU 59 Lose
#559 Virginia +10.5 / Clemson 4:00 ET 1.25 Units
Virginia 49 Clemson 72 Lose
#574 Vanderbilt -1 / Kentucky 6:00 ET 1.50 Units
Vandebilt 56 Kentucky 58 Lose
#576 UNLV -14.5 / Colorado State 6:00 ET 1.25 Units
UNLV 70 Colorado State 39 Winner
#582 Oklahoma +6 / Kansas State 6:00 Et 1.00 Units
Oklahoma 68 Kansas State 83 Lose
#584 Nebraska +4.5 / Missouri 6:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Nebraska 59 Missouri 74 Lose
#588 Richmond -9.5 / George Washington 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Richmond 74 George Washington 70 Lose
#604 Memphis -13 / SMU 8:00 ET 1.75 Units
Memphis 76 SMU 63 PUSH
Friday 2/19 NBA: -0.02 Units (Volume 5.75 Units)
Minnesota +1 / Chicago 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Minnesota 94 Chicago 100 Lose
Under 206 Chicago / Minnesota 1.25 Units
Chicago 100 Minnesota 94 Winner
Memphis -6.5 / Miami 8:00 ET 1.50 Units
Memphis 87 Miami 100 Lose
Miami is very ripe to be blown out here. The Heat have now won 4 straight (2 before the break and 2 after), winning by an average score of 96-76. Playing "due" factors can be risky business, but in this case we feel Miami's bubble is about to burst on both the offensive & defensive ends. Teams can't keep coming with the defensive intensity it takes to hold opponents in the 60's & 70's, especially a very young, talented up and coming team like Memphis. We also see a perfect pattern emerging during the Heats last 4 games. In their 2 wins right before the break (last Tuesday & Wednesday), Miami beat Houston 99-66 while shooting 52% and Atlanta 94-76 again shooting over 50%. Then after the break, the Heat blew out Philly 105-78 and again shot 52%, but in Wednesday's win in NJ Miami barely got the "W" 87-84 and shot just 39%. We expect Miami's shooting woe's to continue tonight while their exhausted defense lets the floodgates open. We would normally be on the over in a spot like this, but if Miami scores in the 70's as we expect, it's asking a lot for Memphis to break 110.
Boston +3 / Portland 10:30 ET 1.75 Units
Boston 96 Portland 76 Winner
We look for the Celtics to make a solid run down the stretch of the season now that they're at full strength. They're 2-0 since the break as they took care of the Kobe-less Lakers last night on the road and will use that win as a big time confidence builder. Remember, Boston was losers of 8 of 13 heading into the break.
Thursday 2/18 NBA: +0.32 Units (Volume 3.50 Units)
Under 206.5 Denver / Cleveland 8:00 ET 1.50 Units
Denver 118 Cleveland 116 Lose
Boston +3.5 / LA Lakers 10:30 ET 2.00 Units
Boston 87 LA Lakers 86 Winner
Don't get too caught up on the recent stats of these 2 teams... LA has won 4 straight (3-1 ATS) while Boston's lost 2 of their last 3 and are on an 0-5 ATS run. Also don't fall for the trap that the Lakers have managed for their last 4 games without Kobe... he will be missed tonight against a very healthy Boston team looking to avenge (2) 1 point home losses to these Lakers this season. Remember the NBA Finals 2 seasons ago? Back in time for the Celtics tonight...
Thursday 2/18 NCAAB: +1.28 Units (Volume 3.50 Units)
#505 Over 142 Syracuse / Georgetown 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Syracuse 75 Georgetown 71 Winner
#513 Under 139 Middle Tennessee State / Troy 8:00 ET 1.25 ET
Middle Tennessee State 62 Troy 66 Winner
#527 Cleveland State +3 / Wisconsin Milwaukee 8:30 ET 1.00 Unit
Cleveland State 59 Wisconsin Milwaukee 69 Lose
Wednesday 2/17 NBA: +0.33 Units (Volume 8.75 Units)
Memphis +7 / Toronto 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Memphis 109 Toronto 102 Winner
Over 216.5 Memphis / Toronto 1.25 Units
Memphis 109 Toronto 102 Lose
Parlay: Memphis ML +250 & Over 216.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.84 Units
Memphis 109 Toronto 102 Lose
Under 192.5 Detroit / Orlando 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Detroit 91 Orlando 116 Lose
Over 201 Chicago / NY Knicks 7:30 ET 1.25 Units
Chicago 115 NY Knicks 109 Winner
Over 187.5 Miami / NJ Nets 7:30 ET 1.00 Unit
Miami 87 NJ Nets 84 Lose
Over 193 Houston / Milwaukee 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Houston 127 Milwaukee 99 Winner
Atlanta -6 / LA Clippers 10:30 ET 1.00 Unit
Atlanta 110 LA Clippers 92 Winner
Wednesday 2/17 NCAAB: +4.65 Units (Volume 8.25 Units)
#733 Under 139 Duke / Miami (Fl) 7:00 ET 1.50 Units
Duke 81 Miami (Fl) 74 Lose
#745 Under 131.5 Illinois Chicago / Butler 7:00 ET 1.00 Units
Illinois Chicago 55 Butler 73 Winner
#754 Ball State +1 / Central Michigan7:00 ET 1.00 Units
Ball State 69 Central Michigan 63 Winner
#767 Over 130 Evansville / Wichita State 8:05 ET 1.25 Units
Evansville 70 Wichita State 76 Winner
#775 Under 120.5 UAB / So. Mississippi 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
UAB 59 So Mississippi 54 Winner
#786 Missouri -3 / Texas 9:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Missouri 82 Texas 77 Winner
#795 Missouri State +5 / Illinois State1.25 Units
Missouri State 72 Illinois State 76 Winner
Tuesday 2/16 NBA: -3.50 Units (Volume 3.50 Units)
Under 198 NY Knicks / Chicago 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
NY Knicks 85 Chicago 118 Lose
LA Clippers +7 / Portland 10:00 ET 1.25 Units
LA Clippers 87 Portland 109 Lose
LA Lakers -14.5 / Golden State 10:30 ET 1.00 Unit
LA Lakers 104 Golden State 94 Lose
Tuesday 2/16 NCAAB: -3.50 Units (Volume 3.50 Units)
Under 138.5 Wake Forest / Virginia Tech 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Wake Forest 83 Virginia Tech 87 Lose
Under 147.5 Texas Tech / Baylor 8:00 ET 1.25 Units
Texas Tech 70 Baylor 88 Lose
TCU +5 / San Diego State 8:00 ET 1.00 Units
TCU 51 San Diego State 68 Lose
Monday 2/15 NCAAB: +1.37 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)
Over 145 Hawaii / New Mexico State 9:00 ET 1.50 Unts
Hawaii 64 New Mexico State 88 Winner