Basketball Results
(Since the All Star Game: 2/15)
186-157-4 (+40.00 Units)
Sunday 6/14 NBA: 1-1 (-0.62/Unit)
NBA Finals: Series Play (From 6/04)
Orlando - LA Lakers 9:05 ET ABC
Series play: LA Lakers -240 Risk 5 Units to win 2.08 Units
LA Lakers 4 Games - Orlando 1 Game Winner
NBA Finals: Game 5
LA Lakers - Orlando 8:05 ET ABC
Amway Arena - Orlando, FL
2 Plays Total Risk 2.7 Units
Over 198 LA Laker / Orlando 8:05 ET 2 Units
LA Lakers 99 Orlando 86 Lose
Parlay: LA Lakers +3.5 / Orlando & Over 198 Risk 0.5/Unit 1.3 Units
LA Lakers 99 Orlando 86 Lose
We're not buying into the "Lakers want to win it at home" scenario! Let's put things in perspective here... In order for that to happen, the Lakers would have to lose tonight thus making the series 3-2 LA and giving renewed life to a depleted but very resilient & resourceful Magic team. Do you really think LA has it in them to lose on purpose? Nonsense! This series is for all the marbles and Orlando has been the thorn in every team's side this post season and need to be put away at the very first chance. LA knows that this series should be 2-2 at best and quite possibly 1-3 with the Lakers staring at elimination tonight! We're by no means saying we love LA tonight, we're just saying that it's a fair playing field and we're not factoring in any soft play by the Lakers. The one thing we feel IS going to happen is that being in the drivers seat, we will see the Lakers easing up on the defense a bit as not to totally exhaust themselves in case there is a game 6 on Tuesday (in 2 days). The total is again down to 198 because of the recent tight defensive play exhibited Thursday by both teams. We were on the Over in that game and lost but we like it even more now. We cited in game 4's write-up how LA held the Magic to 75 points in game 1, 88 in regulation of game 2 and in game 3, despite scoring 108, Orlando was held to just 64 shots... the point total came from excellent shooting (63%), NOT any letdown in Laker "D". Again in game 4, the game stayed under as the Laker defense held Orlando to just 87 points and 67 shots in regulation... Playing defense at this level is very draining. This is a perfect spot for the over: LA doesn't need this game at all so they will be very loose on defense, the line is 4 points lower, and down the stretch if the Magic find themselves down they will do everything to scratch for points including fouling earlier than normal.
Thursday 6/11 NBA: 0-2 (-4.85 Units)
NBA Finals: Game 4
LA Lakers - Orlando 9:05 ET ABC
Amway Arena - Orlando, FL
2nd Half Play
Orlando +4 / LA Lakers 1.5 Units
Orlando 42 LAL 62 Lose
Game release:
2 Plays Total Risk 3.2 Units
Over 201 LA Lakers / Orlando 9:05 ET 2 Units
LAL 99 Orlando 91 Lose
Parlay: Orlando (ML) -125/ LAL & Over 201 Risk 1 Unit to win 2.44 Units
LAL 99 Orlando 91 Lose
Normally, for those who follow us know, we'd be all over the Under here citing that the Magic are coming off a 63% shooting night from the floor and the Lakers 51%, so a natural shooting regression is in order... but hold on a second... Another factor is the draining defense being played by the Lakers. LA held the Magic down again in game 3. Even though the Magic scored 108, they were held to just 64 shots! And remember LA held Orlando to just 75 points in game 1 and 88 points in regulation in game 2. Big energy is used to play this level of defense and you should start seeing signs of fatigue with the Laker "D" which will open things up for Orlando to run. If the Magic get out to an early lead, LA will be forced to run with them thus making this an easy Over. (Also note that, in the Cleveland series, the Cavs held Orlando to just 63 shots in game 3 and the next game the Magic put up 100 points in regulation).
We're also on Orlando in a money line (-125) parlay. We'll lay the extra 15 cents to have a better hedge position at the half. If Orlando is up soundly at the break in a high scoring game we'll have a nice shot at a middle coming back with LA 2H... If the price is right so be sure to check back later.
It seems that everyone, including the books, are in love with LA to go up 3-1 here, and is reflected in the generous 2.5 point point spread and 75 cent money line adjustments. Just remember, this Orlando team has played the underdog role very well this post season and should not be taken lightly! We still love our LA Series bet, but we just think that tonight the Magic tie the series. If Orlando does win tonight, we'll probably come back with another LAL series play (depending on what the adjusted price is).
Tuesday 6/09 NBA: 2-1 (+3.00 Units)
NBA Finals: Game 3
LA Lakers - Orlando 9:05 ET ABC
Amway Arena - Orlando, FL
2nd Half Play
LAL +1.5 / Orlando 2 Units
LA Lakers 50 Orlando 49 Winner
Game release:
Over 198 LA Lakers - Orlando 9:05 ET 2 Units
LA Lakers 104 Orlando 108 Winner
Parlay:LAL ML (+180) & Over 198Risk 1 Unit to win 4.35 Units
LA Lakers 104 Orlando 108 Lose
It's now or never for the Magic at home in game 3 after getting swept in LA and they know it. We're looking for Orlando to take advantage of a tired Lakers defense operating on just one days' rest after also flying cross country. Remember, it takes tremendous energy to play with the defensive intensity the Lakers have been (LA held Orlando to just 75 and 88 points in games 1 and 2 (4 quarters). The Lakers will also have no problem playing a more open game tonight because now, with home court advantage still intact, LA can open things up and take some chances as there's no pressure on them. After watching the intensity the Lakers are playing with early in this series, a sweep wouldn't be surprising at all to us.
Be sure to check back here at the half as there's a good chance we'll be releasing something then as well. With our LA ML parlay paying over 4 units for our 1 unit risk, depending on the HT score we may be in the position for a hedge.
Sunday 6/07 NBA: 0-2 (-5.3 Units)
NBA Finals: Game 2
Orlando - LA Lakers 8:05 Et ABC
Staples Center - Los Angeles, CA
3 Plays Total Risk 5.3 Units
LA Lakers -6.5 / Orlando 1.5 Units
Orlando 96 LA Lakers 101 Lose
Over 202 Orlando / LA Lakers 1.5 Units
Orlando 96 LA Lakers 101 Lose
Parlay: LA Lakers ML (-320) & Over 202 Risk 2 Units to win 3 Units
Orlando 96 LA Lakers 101 Lose
This is the only way to play this game for us from a value standpoint. Despite the complete thrashing the Lakers put on the Magic in game one, 6.5 is still a hefty number to lay to such a resilient team. Orlando has showed it's ability to come back this post season from games you would have thought they were completely out of. They are a team that should not be taken lightly, no matter how bad they looked in the series opener. LA held the Magic to just 75 points on 29% shooting which is not an easy task. In fact, it takes tremendous energy to hold an offense as potent as Orlando's down like that and will be difficult for LA to repeat. We expect to see a whole different look from the Magic tonight as they get back to scoring as they have throughout this post season, but in the end, it will be LA with the 2-0 lead heading to Florida. As we stated in game one's write-up, their is just too much talent on LA for this Magic team to overcome. The Lakers are a year older than the team that got humiliated by the Celtics last year and it says alot for a team to return the very next year, and after seeing their performance Thursday, LA is playing with the killer instinct of a team not accepting loss as an option. We're not saying LA will sweep(although it's quite possible), the series still has to come to Orlando for games 3, 4 & 5, but to go on the road with the 2-0 lead puts the Lakers in total control...
We've structured our plays this way to insure a solid profit even if the Magic wind up keeping it close and covering. The over is our main play here as it is needed to cash our parlay ticket. The only way we see this game staying under is with a repeat performance of game 1... LA shutting down Orlando's scoring which would net us a loss of 2.15 units. But if all goes well and LA gets the outright win with the game going over, we'll make at least 2.85 units (3 units on the parlay minus 0.15/unit juice splitting the side & total), and with an LA cover as well we'll make 6 units total.
Thursday 6/04 NBA: 1-1 (-1.15 Units)
NBA Finals: Game One
Orlando - LA Lakers 9:05 ET ABC
Series play: LA Lakers -240 Risk 5 Units to win 2.08 Units
PENDING
Game 1: 3 Plays Total Risk 4.3 Units
LA Lakers -6 / Orlando 9:05 ET 1.5 Units
LA Lakers 100 Orlando 75 Winner
Over 206 Orlando / LA Lakers 1.5 Units
LA Lakers 100 Orlando 75 Lose
Parlay: LAL (ML) -270 & Over 206 Risk 1 Unit to win 1.61 Units
LA Lakers 100 Orlando 75 Lose
We're not afraid of the -240 series price nor are we afraid of the -6 spread tonight (although for backup purposes we are putting the Lakers in a ML parlay to the over for 1 unit). The Lakers are clearly the more experienced team here. We're not taking anything away from the Magic and the job they've done to get to the Finals, but simply put, they're not beating LA with the Lakers owning home court advantage in a 2-3-2 series format. This format puts big pressure on the road team to win one of the first 2 games because if not, they then almost must sweep 3-0 at home. Besides that, there is just too much talent on LA for this Magic team to overcome. And when you take a good look at what got Orlando here, you've got to ask yourself if you feel safe knowing that if it weren't for knocking down jumpers, the Magic would be on vacation right now. The Lakers are a year older than the team that got humiliated by the Celtics last year and it says alot for a team to return the very next year. Kobe will be in rare form at home tonight as the Lakers roll to set the early tone of this series.
Saturday 5/30 NBA: 0-2 (-2.15 Units)
Eastern Conference Finals: Game 6
Cleveland - Orlando 8:30 ET TNT
Under 192.5 Cleveland / Orlando 8:35 ET 1.5 Units
Cleveland 90 Orlando 103 Lose
Parlay: Cleveland +2 & Under 192.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.30 Units
Cleveland 90 Orlando 103 Lose
We're sticking with the under here despite the way this series has evolved scoring wise. We're looking for Cleveland to do what it has to do to force a game seven and like we said in our game 5 write-up, if any team can come back to win a series from a 1-3 hole it's this Cavs team. We look for Cleveland to get it done on defense and we have an adjusted number of 192.5, up 8.5 points from this series opener of 184. One stat worth mentioning here is that in the playoffs, the Magic have gone under 6 of 7 times after an ATS loss. Of course there are hundreds of stats and trends that can be looked at but most are meaningless. Before giving any "stat" or "trend" credibility to continue it's course instead of being just another random occurrence, you need to break it down and ask the question "why should it continue?" Teams react differently to winning and losing and in this case, by not covering the spread the Magic have not played up to their potential and therefore, they are reacting by stepping up the defense in their next game as opposed to other teams that may react by loosening up and trying to score more points.
Friday 5/29 NBA: 0-2 (-3.30 Units)
Western Conference Finals: Game 6
LA Lakers - Denver 9:05 ET ESPN
Denver -5/ LA Lakers 9:05 ET 1.75 Units
Denver 92 LA Lakers 119 Lose
Under 209.5 LAL / Denver 1.25 Units
Denver 92 LA Lakers 119 Lose
Lakers will try and duplicate Wednesday's performance where they came away with the 9 point win at home holding these Nuggets to 94 points on just 39% shooting but the fact is it took all LA had to hold on including shooting 50% from the field. The defensive effort will be there early giving the Under a strong shot, but in the end Denver should pull away. The crowd will be a major factor tonight as this is only the 2nd time in 31 years that their Nuggets will be playing a game 6 in the Western Conference Finals. As long as Denver doesn't go ice cold from the field again, we'll have a game 7 at Staples Center on Sunday.
Thursday 5/28 NBA: 1-1 (Even)
Eastern Conference Finals: Game 5
Orlando - Cleveland 8:35 ET TNT
Cleveland -7.5 / Orlando 2 Units
Cleveland 112 Orlando 102 Winner
Parlay: Cleveland (ML) -400 & Under 191Risk 2 Units to win 2.78 Units
Cleveland 112 Orlando 102 Lose
First, before getting into the reasoning behind our plays tonight, let's take a look at the value end of our parlay. Of course -400 is a hefty lay but put into perspective it's actually a bargain. Let's compare an NBA 2 team, 4 point teaser to our parlay. We're GETTING +139 on our parlay which gives us a line of Cleveland (Pick) and Under 191. With a teaser, you'd have to LAY -110 to get 4 extra points side and total, lines of Cleveland -3.5 and Under 195. So by playing the parlay we're actually taking all 8 of the extra points allotted in the teaser and using them ALL on the side instead of splitting them with the total 4 and 4. When it comes to teasers from a value standpoint, teasing NBA totals is the worst proposition because a point in a total is worth much less that point in a side. In any given NBA game, the window of possible total final scores is generally around 50 points (165-215), but in a margin of victory, the window is much smaller, especially in this series. Realistically we figure the window of margin here is around 30 (Orlando outright by 8-10 points or Cleveland winning by as many as 20), which makes the points allotted to the side almost twice as valuable and in addition, we're getting +139 instead of laying -110...
Now on to our take on game 5 in what's shaping up to be one of the biggest upsets in a long while. We're on the Under for many of the same reasons as we were last night in the LAL - Denver series... it's time for Cleveland to step up on the defensive end especially since they're not getting it done on offense (other than LeBron). So the best remedy for a stagnant offense is a solid defense and that's what we're looking for tonight from the Cavs. Now that Cleveland has had a day to digest and assess the situation, even being down 1-3, they're home tonight and with a win they're right back in it. If any team can win 3 games in a row, it's the Cavs, especially after losing 2 in a row. They've lost back to back games only twice the entire season and after each time they came storming back. After both times (2/8 & 2/10 losses to the Lakers & Indiana and 4/02 & 4/03 losses to the Magic & Washington), the Cavs rattled off 5 in a row each time and covered 9 of the 10! Tonight we fully expect Cleveland to at least get the outright win while shutting down the paint. As long as we hit our parlay, we're guaranteed a small profit (0.58/Unit) and are free rolling for another 4.2 units. But really, we can see another domination on their home floor as they pull it all together and answer to the call in an absolute must win game much like Kobe & the Lakers did last night in LA.
Wednesday 5/27 NBA: 3-0 (+6.28 Units)
Western Conference Finals: Game 5
Denver - LA Lakers 9:05 ET ESPN
LA Lakers -5.5 / Denver 2 Units
LA Lakers 103 Denver 94 Winner
Under 210 Denver / LAL 1 Unit
LA Lakers 103 Denver 94 Winner
Parlay: LA Lakers (ML) -260 & Under 210 Risk 2 Unit to win 3.28 Units
LA Lakers 103 Denver 94 Winner
After watching the Cavs go down 1-3 in their series, the Lakers have to be concerned that they too will be facing a tough spot if they don't get a win tonight at home. Kobe and company have to be ecstatic about the Cleveland situation. I mean c'mon, LeBron wins MVP over Kobe and the Cavs run the table in rounds 1 and 2 going 8-0 SU & ATS and are now all of a sudden facing elimination at the hands of the Magic. Tonight is message time at the Staples Center. Kobe will be on a mission to show why, in his eyes, he is still the best player in basketball playing on the best team in basketball, and how when you have that status you step up and win important pivotal games. We look for the Lakers to take control of this series tonight by doing what championship teams do.... play sound basketball which includes solid defense. 53 points a quarter is not easy to score when you adhere to the fundamental principals of the game and that's what the Lakers are going to have to do here to get the win. They must stop Denver's bigs and get them in foul trouble early which will open up the scoring for the Lakers enabling for them to pull away and stay there.
Cleveland 114 Orlando 116 (OT) Lose
All of a sudden, the mighty Cavaliers have been brought back down to Earth. The way these teams have been playing, it looks like Orlando's the side... at least from a stats standpoint. But from a business standpoint, you can't go against Cleveland here. They have worked hard all year and most of the time they look like the best team in basketball (as their record reflects), and they are facing a very important game tonight. We're not going to say it's a must win only because this is the Cavs and they have the resources to come back from a 1-3 hole, so we'll leave the "alert" at important, not must. Then you look at the Magic... they are a confident team who came within one second of having the brooms out tonight. We're leaving the side alone but feel the Under is the play....
Cleveland's biggest problem has been stopping Dwight Howard underneath. That's been the whole key to Orlando's offense because when he's getting loose, the Magic's shooters are having a field day. Cleveland must contain Superman and they have the personnel to do it. Look for the Cavs to go back to what they've done best early in the playoffs... Defense. Despite 2 of the first 3 games in this series going Over and the one lone Under staying under just barely, the line maker has stood his ground not budging off of 188 (tonight's line is actually a point lower than game 3's). We're expecting a classic defensive performance by Cleveland tonight as they know that's their best shot at getting the road win... by taking the crowd out of it early..
Monday 5/25 NBA: 1-1 (+1.50 Units)
2 Plays Total Risk 2.7 Units
Over 208.5 LA Lakers / Denver 9:05 ET 2 Units
LAL 101 Denver 120 Winner
Parlay: LAL (ML) +165 & Over 208.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.03 Units
LAL 101 Denver 120 Lose
Now we've got this total right where we want it! Down to 208.5 from a series opening number of 214. Remember, it's all about getting the best of it and it doesn't get any better than this. Not just because of the extra handful of points, but because we're getting those extra points when we feel the line should have moved the other way. Of course it can't because of recent play, especially Denver's horrible offensive showing in game 3, and more importantly George Karl's game plan lay out to the media. Karl told reporters about game 3's performance,
"We got caught up in the emotion of the moment of a great crowd, a great challenge, and we tried to hit too many home runs, rather than just take a single here, double here, and try to win the game that way. We've got to challenge the Lakers to play defense on every possession. I think we took too many shots that they didn't have to play defense. We just played bad offense."
That's all fine and good George, and we're sure you're sincere in your plan, but the fact of the matter is this is a tired Lakers' team with it's stars logging big time minutes and gasping for air (and fluid) in the Mile High City. This was reported by the LA Times after game 3:
"The entire team appears exhausted after Saturday's tough Game 3 win over Denver, especially Kobe Bryant, who needed an IV drip. There's little time to recover, with Game 4 Monday night."
So when the Nuggets "smell the blood" of LA's defensive lag, they'll pounce. Denver will be taking uncontested 3's tonight and if they find their stroke, it could be lights out early for the Lakers. We are however recommending a small (half unit) parlay on LA (ML: +165) & Over which pays over 4:1, but our main play is the Over. LA has shown too many times it's ability to overcome adversity and Kobe has single hand-idly taken over many a fourth quarter much to the dismay of his opponents. Although the fatigue may be too much to overcome tonight, we still may be able to use our parlay position at the half for a hedge play.... we'll send any half time play we release, so be sure to check back as the game goes to the half.
Sunday 5/24 NBA: 1-1 (-0.20/Unit)
Eastern Conference Finals: Game 3
Cleveland - Orlando 8:35 ET TNT
2 Plays: Total Risk 4.4 Units
Cleveland +1.5 / Orlando 2 Units
Cleveland 89 Orlando 89 Lose
Under 189.5 Cleveland / Orlando 2 Units
Cleveland 89 Orlando 89 Lose
We were on both Cleveland an the under in game 2 Friday and are coming right back tonight for all the same reasons plus a couple of new ones. In game 2 on Friday, we liked the extra line value in the total (4.5 points from game 1's line of 184) and tonight it's up to 189.5.
Here's our game 2 write-up on Cleveland -9 & Under 188.5....
...We love it when 5 point adjustments are made for no real reason. Sure these teams went off in game one offensively but that's all the more reason to make a case for the under in game 2. Cleveland has got to be sick about losing the opener. They let Dwight Howard get inside all night and there's no excuse for that other than feeling invincible having ran the table in rounds 1 & 2. Now's it's back to business as usual for the Cavs. Cleveland allowed an average of 78 points in their first 8 games of the playoffs to Detroit & Atlanta, so with a line of 9 and 188.5 tonight, the line maker's theoretical final is 99-89, allowing for Orlando to score 11 more points than Cleveland averaged allowing in the 1st 2 rounds. Granted the Magic are a better team than both Detroit and Atlanta but not by 11 points! We feel the game 1 number of 184 is an accurate line but once again the public loves to overreact to offensive performances like the one they saw in game 1.
In addition to the value in the total, don't forget that Orlando is coming off of 2 spectacular shooting performances from the field: 55% in game 1 vs Cleveland and 51% in game 7 vs Boston. With a combination tonight of Cleveland guarding the paint which will force more Orlando jump shots as opposed to high percentage lay ups, and the Magics' shooting coming back down to earth, we can see Orlando being held in the 70's - 80's while Cleveland gets out to the early lead and never looks back..
Well, we weren't really too far off on our analysis. The Cavs did jump out to the early lead up by 14 after Q1, as many as 23 in Q2 & by 12 at the half but once again Cleveland let the Magic back into the game. But in the end, Lebron made an unbelievable shot to win and send the game over at the buzzer. So as it turned out, had that shot not gone in, the game stays under only by virtue of the extra 4.5 point adjustment from game 1. Of course we did't make that play expecting it to be that close, but when you constantly take the best of it, good things tend to happen by the end of the day.
So here we are again coming back with the under and the line's up yet another point. It is very draining both physically & emotionally for a team to come back from such a deficit, especially on the road, and especially in back to back games yet the Magic did it, and they did it for a losing cause the 2nd time which will only add to their fatigue which will start showing tonight. Remember, the Magic have played 5 more post season games than the Cavs. Although this sometimes works against the more rested team due to the long periods of inactivity (as was the case here with the Cavs losing game 1 at home), now both teams are in play mode but Cleveland holds a huge energy advantage. We're looking for the Cavs to snatch home court advantage back tonight against a weary Magic team whose comeback ability will be tough tonight if they get in another early hole.
Saturday 5/23 NBA: 0-2 (-2.65 Units)
Western Conference Finals: Game3
LA Lakers - Denver 8:30 ET ABC
2 Plays: Total Risk 2.65 Units
Over 212 LA Lakers / Denver 8:30 Et 1.5 Units
LA Lakers 103 Denver 97 Lose
Parlay: LAL +4 & Over 212 Risk 1 Unit to make 2.60 Units
LA Lakers 103 Denver 97 Lose
We're risking a total of 2.65 Units on the over with our plays split between the total alone & the LAL +4 parlay. We stand to make 4.10 units if the Lakers cover as well. With the Nuggets coming home, we feel their offense is going to feed off of the crowd which will help set the tone/pace of this game early. LA will have no problem following suit. Both games 1 & 2 were right on the brink of going over despite just average shooting from both teams, so if these teams find their strokes early, this one will fly over the total. We also like for the Lakers to step up tonight and snatch back home court, but the over is our main play.
Thursday 5/22 NBA: 0-2 (-3.75 Units)
Eastern Conference Finals: Game 2
Orlando - Cleveland 8:35 ET TNT
2 Plays: Total 3.85 Units risked
Cleveland -9 / Orlando 8:35 ET 1.5 Units
Cleveland 96 Orlando 95 Lose
Under 188.5 Orlando / Cleveland 2 Units
Cleveland 96 Orlando 95 Lose
We love it when 5 point adjustments are made for no real reason. Sure these teams went off in game one offensively but that's all the more reason to make a case for the under in game 2. Cleveland has got to be sick about losing the opener. They let Dwight Howard get inside all night and there's no excuse for that other than feeling invincible having ran the table in rounds 1 & 2. Now's it's back to business as usual for the Cavs. Cleveland allowed an average of 78 points in their first 8 games of the playoffs to Detroit & Atlanta, so with a line of 9 and 188.5 tonight, the line maker's theoretical final is 99-89, allowing for Orlando to score 11 more points than Cleveland averaged allowing in the 1st 2 rounds. Granted the Magic are a better team than both Detroit and Atlanta but not by 11 points! We feel the game 1 number of 184 is an accurate line but once again the public loves to overreact to offensive performances like the one they saw in game 1.
In addition to the value in the total, don't forget that Orlando is coming off of 2 spectacular shooting performances from the field: 55% in game 1 vs Cleveland and 51% in game 7 vs Boston. With a combination tonight of Cleveland guarding the paint which will force more Orlando jump shots as opposed to high percentage lay ups, and the Magics' shooting coming back down to earth, we can see Orlando being held in the 70's - 80's while Cleveland gets out to the early lead and never looks back.
Thursday 5/21 NBA: 1-2 (-1.65 Units)
Western Conference Finals: Game 2
Denver - LA Lakers 9:05 ET ESPN
3 Plays: Total Risk 3.75 Units
LA Lakers -5.5 / Denver 1.5 Units
LA Lakers 103 Denver 106 Lose
Under 211.5 Denver / LA Lakers 1 Unit
LA Lakers 103 Denver 106 Winner
Parlay: LAL (ML) -240 & Under 211.5 Risk 1 Unit to win 1.71 Units
LA Lakers 103 Denver 106 Lose
It took all Denver had in game 1, including Carmelo Anthony scoring 39 on 14-20 from the field, to keep it close but the Nuggets still couldn't get the win. So now what tonight? Defense on both ends of the court. We were on the over in game 1 you'll remember and wound up falling just 6.5 points short even after a 41 point 3rd quarter seemingly did us in. If there was another 30 seconds in the game we most likely would have squeaked it out, but even if we did we know we were on the wrong side. Big time adjustments were made at the half in game 1, especially by Denver. The Nuggets held LA to just 19 points in the 3rd quarter and 20 in the first 10:07 of the 4th quarter (before the intentional fouling session) and we look for them to pick up right where they left off. This is not the building Denver wants to get into a shoot out in so we look for them to continue the defensive intensity tonight and try and keep the crowd out of it as much as possible. We like LA to come away with the win to take full control of the series and keeping home court in tact. We feel game 1's scare will have woke the Lakers up making them very attentive tonight. We're backing our plays up with a money line parlay which will offset our LA -5.5 play just in case there's another win and non cover.
Wednesday 5/20 NBA: 1-1 (-0.15/Unit)
Cleveland -8.5 / Orlando 8:30 ET 1.5 Units
Cleveland 106 Orlando 107 Lose
Over 184 Orlando / Cleveland 1.5 Units
Cleveland 106 Orlando 107 Winner
Lot's of talk about how Orlando stands a legit shot of competing here. On paper it looks feasible, I mean the Magic have beaten the Cavs 7 out of the last 10 (9-1 ATS), but most of those games were PCM (Pre Cavalier Maturation). Throw them out. This is a Cleveland team on a mission and although we don't generally like laying these kind of points, especially in a playoff game, we have a unique advantage in that the Cavs have won 8 playoff games in a row all by double digits, an NBA record. Of course Cleveland will never admit that that's on their minds but come on, you know it is. So it's nice to know that down the stretch in a tight ATS game, the Cavs may not be so quick to lay down which is the cause of a good portion of winning but not covering in this point spread range.
Also, Cleveland is the much more talented team, not only individually but as a team. There is perfect harmony amongst all the players... these guy really do have a special closeness and it shows on the court. They've been in "trouble" several times during the playoffs trailing at times by double digits and have worked out of it each time, and the games they never trailed in they won even bigger. Is there any stopping this team.... we think not. This is the beginning of a dynasty.
The toll that Orlando's recent 7 game series with Boston took is sure to show tonight.Tonight we look for Dwight Howard to continue attacking offensively which is sure to lead to a bit of show boating by LeBron and ultimately open up the game. As the game progresses, fatigue will set in to the Magic which may very well cause them to go completely dead on the defensive end paving the way to a blowout and double digit win #9 in a row for the Cavs...
Over 214.5 Denver / LA Lakers 9:05 ET 2 Units
Denver 103 LA LAkers 105 Lose
The Denver - Dallas series went Over the last 4 while the LA - Houston series has gone Under the last 4... So which will prevail? We're going over here feeling the Lakers will be given no choice but to fall into Denver's game. LA played a spectacular game 7 Sunday as their defense totally shut down the Rockets holding them to just 70 points. It will be very difficult for LA to repeat on defense after just 1 day off and having played every other day since 5/04 (this is their 8th game since the 4th where as it's only Denver's 6th since 5/03). Good defense takes big energy which LA doesn't have here especially against a fresh, rested Nuggets team.
Monday 5/18 NBA: 0
No games scheduled
Sunday 5/17 NBA: 1-2 (-2.45 Units)
Top Rated
LA Lakers -12.5 / Houston 3:30 Et 1.75 Units
LA Lakers 89 Houston 70 Winner
It's real easy to make a case for Houston here...almost too easy. 13?! Big number but accurate number. Few realize the importance of this game to the Lakers... deeper than just advancing to the western conference finals. Kobe Bryant is one of the games 2 best players and he is watching his counterpart blowing through opponents en route to back to back series sweeps. Is LeBron better than Kobe?... Right now we'd have to say yes but it's mainly because of how the Cavs are playing as a team. Good teamwork makes their star appear that much better (not that LeBron need any help). We're not saying the Lakers don't play well as a team, but lately the've been known to go to sleep and awake from their nightmare only to find themselves tied 3-3 with the Yao-less Rockets and facing a game seven despite being huge favorites to win the series. We give a lot of credit to Houston as they've shown tremendous heart in hanging in there and being able to take advantage of LA's lackadaisical play, but it all ends today as Kobe will take control as he has done countless times in the past in front of the home crowd at the Staples Center. LA will be looking to make a statement here not only to say they're the better team in this series but also to send a message to Denver and Cleveland. Kobe and the Lakers suffered a terrible Finals series last year losing badly to the Celtics and will be focused here on out... especially today.... LA in a route ala game 5...
Top Rated
Over 186 Orlando / Boston 8:05 ET 2 Units
Orlando 101 Boston 82 Lose
We're on the over here for much of the same reasons as we were in game 6. It takes tremendous energy to play the kind of defense these teams have been playing. And due to the low scores in this series, the total has been adjusted another couple of points now down to 186. This series opened at 188.5 and went as high as 194 in game 4 and has been steadily dropping since. Today's total is 8 points off the series high and 2.5 points lower than the series low. If nothing else, we're getting the best of it here by a mile. Also you can expect a fight to the end as is the case in game sevens which leaves more opportunities for the game to make it over the number down the stretch if needed.
We're not playing the side tonight as we're on Boston for the series for 2 units (+110) and we'll stick with that play. You can't get that price today as the ML on the game is Boston -150 and the other option is to lay the 2.5 AND -110 instead of +110. So if you've not played the series play (or you signed up since we released that play), we want you to know our position on today's game.
Series Play: (Released 5/04)
Boston +110 / Orlando 2 Units
Boston 3 Games Orlando 2 Games Lose
Saturday 5/16 NBA: 0
No games scheduled
Friday 5/15 NBA: 0
No games scheduled
Thursday 5/14 NBA: 0-3 (-4.85 Units)
Top Rated
Over 190.5 Boston / Orlando 7:05 ET 2 Units
Boston 75 Orlando 83 Lose
Parlay: Orlando -7 and Over 190.5 Risk 1 unit to win 2.6 Units
Boston 75 Orlando 83 Lose
The Celtics are a tired team... that's why we were on the Magic in game 5 (going against our Boston series bet), figuring that after their gutsy come from behind win in game 4 winning at the buzzer, they'd have nothing left for game 5.... and we were right except the Magic tried running out the clock with just under 5 minutes left and allowed Boston to inch closer and closer until they caught them. It takes a lot of energy to come back like Boston has done in games 4 & 5 and it also takes alot of energy to play good defense which Boston has been doing lately. We're looking for a wide open game tonight as Boston is drained which will force them to abort any real defensive effort. Also remember, the Celtics have not had more than 1 day off since 4/24.... almost 3 weeks! They've played every other night since 4/26 (this is their 10th game since the 26th and Orlando's 9th and don't forget about all the OT games with the Bulls). And as for the Magic, after Dwight Howard opened his mouth about getting him the ball he has now put a big burden on himself to produce offensively which we're sure he'll do just fine with. We're playing the game just as listed above with the bulk of our play on the over as we really don't like laying the big points but feel a blowout for Orlando is likely. Then it will be back to Boston for game seven as our series play is still pending.
Over 197.5 LA Lakers / Houston 9:35 ET 1.5 Units
LA Lakers 80 Houston 95 Lose
We feel LA will come with all they have tonight as they do not want to play a game seven. Denver wrapped things up last night and are now resting, so the Lakers don't want to give them any advantage there. Houston couldn't contain LA in game 5 as we thought they would so they're probably going to try to open things up a bit here and if they manage to shoot better than 33% as in game 5, this one should fly over.
Wednesday 5/13 NBA: 0-1 (-2.20 Units)
(Top Rated)
Dallas +10.5 / Denver 9:05 ET 2 Units
Dallas 110 Denver 124 Lose
We did not play game four of this series Monday because we really didn't know how the Mavs were going to react to getting robbed by the refs in game 3 by not calling the foul on Dallas and instead allowed Carmelo Anthony to get off (and make) a 3 pointer with time running out. Well we got our answer to that question . It's clear now that Dallas is not quite ready to concede as they hung in game 4 and got the come from behind win to give them life. Now anything can happen. Of course it's a pretty tall order for the Mavs to come back and win the series, but with a one game at a time mentality and a venue change after each game, anything is possible. Really tonight is the biggest hurdle for Dallas because a win here sends the series back to Dallas and a much easier time for the Mavs which, with another home win, would force a game seven.
And of course there's all the off court craziness surrounding this series with the way the Nuggets' families were treated in Dallas Monday and Mark Cuban getting into it with Kenyon Martin and on and on. Yeah, the Nuggets aren't happy and they'll be looking to bury the Mavs because of it but remember, it's not up to them. Ther's no switch they can flip to put their game in "burial mode" because they're pissed off. Dallas is plenty pissed themselves because of the refs blowing a game deciding call in game 3 so if anything, we believe the calls tonight will be a bit Mavs shaded. We also think the refs will call a tight game, not to let it get ot of hand and that also favors Dallas.
So with tonight's game opening at Denver -7 and being bet all the way up to -10.5 in some spots for reasons mentioned is not a warranted move... it's free points! Sure Denver can blow out Dallas tonight, anything's possible, but we'll back Dallas here who are sure to be getting the best of it from the free throw line as the NBA will look to subtly redeem themselves here.
Tuesday 5/12 NBA: 1-1 (-0.70/Unit)
(Top Rated)
Orlando +2 / Boston 8:05 ET 2 Units
Orlando 88 Boston 92 Lose
Boston has been very good to us so far this playoff season as we're up 5.69 units overall in the first 2 rounds and we have a pending 2 unit series play on them against Orlando. However, we feel tonight's the time to get off the Celtics (temporarily as we still feel they can win in Orlando Thursday to force a game seven).
Although the Celtics won a huge game 4 Sunday to tie the series, they're a tired team. Their 7 game first round series with the Bulls is finally taking it's toll on the champs and tonight it'll show. Realize that in their game 4 buzzer beater win, Boston out shot Orlando 53% (38-72) to 40% (34-85), yet it took all they had to win. Like we said, they're a tired team and remember, not only did the Celtics go 7 with the Bulls, but they went to OT in 4 of those games (6 OT periods played altogether: 36:00 more... almost another whole game). So not only was it a physically tough series it was also mentally tough and game 4 Sunday started revealing signs of weariness with Boston.
Under 199 Houston / LA Lakers 10:35 ET 1.5 Units
Houston 78 LA Lakers 118 Winner
This series' total opened up at 193 and went to 197 in the absence of Yao and after a great defensive effort Sunday from the Yao-less Rockets the number is up to 199... why?.... because Kobe is home and is going to light it up for the Staples Center faithful?.... No.... Good defense is good defense and Houston knows that's the only way they have a shot at advancing. Getting into a running game wit LA will not work and the Rockets know it. They're going to try and duplicate Sunday's performance as best they can on the road. Although technically Sunday's game only stayed under by 10 points, remember that LA was held to in quarters 1, 2 & 3 of 16, 20 & 18 points until "garbage" time when the Lakers scored 33 in the 4th quarter only because the Rockets smartly stopped wasting energy on defense as they had a 29 point lead.
Monday 5/11 NBA: 0
PASS
Sunday 5/10 NBA: 3-0 (+8.00 Units)
(Top Rated)
Under 196 LA Lakers / Houston 3:30 ET 1.75 Units
LA Lakers 87 Houston 99 Winner
No Yao Ming... out for the season with a broken foot... so now what for the Rockets? You would think that would loosen things up making for a faster paced game but we think the opposite will happen. Remember, like we always say, when a team is missing it's star player, the rest of the team steps up to fill the void. In this case, we feel Ron Arttest and Shane Battier are going to turn up the heat on defense and look to stop the Lakers' scoring at will instead of trying to match buckets with them... that game they'll lose and they know it. This series has been extremely physical so far so the groundwork has been laid.
(Top Rated)
Boston +5 / Orlando 8:00 ET 2 Units
Boston 95 Orlando 94 Winner
Parlay: Boston (ML) +175 & Under 193 Risk 1 Unit to make 4.25 Units
Boston 95 Orlando 94 Winner
Well here we go again. This is a big game for us as our 2 unit series play on the Celtics is on the line in this game. A loss here will pretty much finish Boston off. We still like them for the series and at least don't see them falling behind 1-3 and if Orlando does advance, it won't be in five. The Magic shot almost 60% in game 4 enroute to a 117-96 blowout. Bring down Orlando's shooting percentage to below 50% and get Ray Allen going (just 8 points in game 4: 3-13... 0-5 from 3) and we're heading back to Boston tied. You can believe that Doc Rivers tore apart the game 4 film and will make the necessary adjustments today. Also notice that no adjustment was made in the pointspread from game 4 despite the blowout but the total was moved 4 points to 193... added value to our 1 unit parlay.
Saturday 5/09 NBA: 0-3 (-5.50 Units)
Under 209.5 Denver / Dallas 5:05 ET 1.5 Units
Denver 106 Dallas 105 Lose
Both teams have been shooting well above average. The Nuggets, in their last 4 have shot an average of 53%... 6% better than their season average of 47%, and Dallas has been right at 50% over their last 3 games, 4% better than their season average of 46%. Above average shooting percentages have a way of straightening out which is what we expect here. Nothing like 3 full days off and a change in venue to throw a monkey wrench into a team's rhythm...
Denver - Dallas 2H Play:
Under 104.5 2H 1.5 Units
58-60 Lose
(Top Rated)
Atlanta +9 / Cleveland 8:00 ET 2 Units
Atlanta 82 Cleveland 97 Lose
Sure, it's real easy to bet Cleveland and call it a day, and if they don't cover... or actually lose the game.... it'll be real easy to say how they deserve one bad game.... but to play the high flying Cavs is going to cost you an extra 4 or 5 points! That's how strong the impression these Cavs have made so far in the playoffs is... enough to force the line maker to hang a "bad" number. Of course it's only bad if Cleveland doesn't cover.
Take a look at the line progression: the Cavs laid 11.5 and 12.5 in games 1 and 2 at home, and in the regular season they laid 4 in Atlanta twice with the Hawks covering both and 1-1 SU, and are now laying 9 on the road?... OK so Joe Johnson won't be 100% but remember, everyone steps up in these situations feeling they need to put forth a great effort to compensate which often negates the reason for the adjusted line thus creating value. And many times teams playing without a key player and/or an injured key player play better than they would have at 100%.. look at the Magic last night blowing out Boston minus Rayfer Alston and LA dismantling the Rockets on the road minus Derek Fisher. You can say that Atlanta doesn't have quite the team as the Lakers, but don't forget that the Hawks do have one of the best home records in the NBA (34-11 this season).
So now the question remains: Can Cleveland continue this pace? They're 9-1 SU / 10-0 ATS in their last 10 and if you throw out the last game of the season where Philly nipped them at home while the starters rested, they'd be perfect. We think not and if there's going to be a "letdown" game for the Cavs it'll be in Atlanta. Look at earlier in the season when Cleveland hit bad ATS runs: from 3/7 - 3/31, the Cavs were 13-0 SU but only covered 5 times... why?... because of juiced up lines like laying 12.5 to the Nets on 3/25 and winning by 11, and laying 10.5 to the Blazers in an OT game on 3/19 (win by 5), and of course laying 8 at home to these Hawks and winning by just 6 on 3/21.
No matter how good a team is, making bigger numbers on them isn't the answer... they're not becoming any more talented, they're just playing better lately. So when is the time to step up and buck the trend? With Cleveland shooting very well (over 50% average their last 3 games) which is not their game (they average 47%), an off shooting night tonight is expected, and with having to play in a building that the Hawks have only lost 11 times this season, AND getting a fat 9 points, we feel it's now... take the points.
Friday 5/08 NBA: 0-3 (-4.35 Units)
Boston +5 / Orlando 7:05 ET 1.5 Units
Boston 96 Orlando 117 Lose
Parlay: Boston (ML) +170 & Under 189 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 2.08 Units
Boston 96 Orlando 117 Lose
.... And we'll say it again... The Magic lack the killer instinct it takes to win a championship. Can't really put our finger on what the problem is but Orlando is not playing sound ball right now. They're not finishing teams off when they have their feet on their opponents throats. We look for Boston to snatch home court advantage back tonight as the last thing they want is to be looking down the barrel of returning home down 3-1. The Celtics are the better team here and will be more defensive minded on the road tonight....
(Top Rated)
Under 193.5 LA Lakers / Houston 9:35 ET 2 Units
LA Lakers 108 Houston 94 Lose
We're coming right back with our same play as Wednesday. Despite Kobe's 40 points and a 64 point 1st quarter in game 2, the game only made it over by 16 points. Things settled down a bit after Q1 as there were 50, 49, & 46 scored in the remaining quarters. We'll chalk up that performance to the Lakers getting embarrassed at home in game 1 and Kobe being on a mission because of it. The facts remain though... defense wins championships and Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. We can't see a repeat performance by Kobe tonight as he will be out of his element... away from the Staple's Center. We look for the Rockets to do what they do best on their home court and for the game to be played in the eighties.... a far cry from Wednesday...
Thursday 5/07 NBA: 0
PASS
Wednesday 5/06 NBA: 2-1 (+0.66/Unit)
Boston -4.5 / Orlando 8:05 ET 1 Unit
Boston 112 Orlando 94 Winner
Parlay: Boston (ML) -200 & Over 189
Risk 1 Unit to win 1.86 Units
Boston 112 Orlando 94 Winner
We're sticking to our original position on this series... Orlando lacks the killer instinct needed to put teams away. Just like Orlando failed to put Philly away early, they almost blew a huge lead in game 1. Even though the Magic survived game 1 after having their 28 point 3rd quarter lead cut to 3, they gave the Celtics renewed confidence. For 2 and a half quarters, Orlando beat Boston down like a high school team. Had they been able to maintain that intensity it would have all but depleted this Celtics team right to the core leaving them searching for answers but instead, we feel it's Boston riding the momentum train despite trailing 1 game to none. We're playing this combination of plays because we can see another down to the wire barn burner here which is another reason to like the over with intentional fouling down the stretch. We also can't see Ray Allen and Rondo being held to just 2 for 12 each from the floor again.
(Top Rated)
Under 193.5 Houston / LA Lakers 10:35 ET 2 Units
Houston 98 LA Lakers 111 Lose
It's going to be another night at the office for the Houston defense tonight. Defense is how they got this far and it'll be defense that gives them a shot of the unthinkable: derailing the mighty Lakers. No, we don't think that'll happen but another thing that's not going to happen is for the Lakers to turn this series into a score fest. Yeah, there's alot of talk of how LA was embarrassed on their home court in game 1 and there's alot of speculation of how Kobe's going to "go off" tonight but remember, just as Kobe is amongst the top offensive players ever to play the game, Ron Artest is amongst the leagues best defenders. So once the pace of tonight's game is controlled by Houston, we see LA following suit and turning up their defensive intensity as well. These are the playoffs, and defense wins championships...
Tuesday 5/05 NBA: 1-1 (+0.35/Unit)
Atlanta +12 / Cleveland 8:05 ET 1.5 Units
Atlanta 72 Cleveland 99 Lose
The line maker's showing absolutely no respect for the Hawks. This is the biggest number Cleveland has laid to Atlanta since the beginning of the season (11/22/08) when it was also -12. Cleveland won and covered that game 110-96. In their last 3 meetings though, Atlanta was a 4 point home dog twice (12/13 & 3/01), and on 3/21 Cleveland laid just 8 at home. The reason for the drop in price was because of how the Hawks handled Cleveland. They won outright 97-92 on 12/13 and lost by only a point on 3/01 (87-88). Atlanta also covered in Cleveland on 3/21 (+8: 96-102). So to go back to the 11 - 12 point range here is not right, other than having to based on public perception of Cleveland's recent results (covered 8 in a row now and are playing their best ball of the year), but remember, Cleveland's been sitting now for nine days.... Basketball players are conditioned to play 2-3 times per week with no problem and sometimes as many as 5 games in a week. When they're taken out of their element, many times it works against them... look at what happened to the Lakers last night. Of course Cleveland can blow Atlanta right out of their building on any given night, but to get this kind of value with an Atlanta team in a groove is big... AND they're one of the few teams that has proven they match up well with the Cavs.
(Top Rated)
Over 207.5 Dallas / Denver 10:35 ET 2 Units
Dallas 105 Denver 117 Winner
Denver will loosen up tonight on the defensive end... not by choice but by fatigue. Yes, the Nuggets had a few days off between series', but in closing out the Hornets, Denver held them to just 86 and 63 in the last 2 games. To hold a team in the 60's, especially a good offensive team like New Orleans, takes alot of energy. Then they came right back and shut them down again... 107-86 to win the series. Then in Game one against Dallas Sunday it was ANOTHER big defensive effort holding the high flying Mavs to 95. Also Dallas will be looking to pick up the pace knowing that's their best shot to win in Denver. We were on the under in game one Sunday you'll remember citing that both teams have been off waiting for the series to start and would need a little time to find their shots again and what happened....?..... A 40 point 1st quarter just like we expected and that's the only reason this game stayed under the 206 (95-109 Final). Look for the scoring to pick up right where it left off...
Monday 5/04 NBA: 1-1 (-0.15/Unit)
Series Play:
Boston +110 / Orlando 2 Units PENDING
See Game 1 write-up below...
Boston -1.5 / Orlando 8:05 ET 1.5 Units
Boston 90 Orlando 95 Lose
It seems all you're hearing about is how tired and drained the Celtics are after their grueling 7 battle war with the Bulls, but what about the lame effort put forth by Orlando? By all rights the Magic should have swept the Sixers. It seems to us that Orlando doesn't possess the killer instinct that it takes to win in the second season. We've had this series circled since Thursday when the Magic finally put away Philly and no matter who emerged from the Boston - Chicago series, it was and still is our position that Orlando goes no further. As for the Magic being the more rested team, so what... Boston will use the Bulls series as a momentum builder instead of an excuse to lay down...
Under 193.5 Houston / LA Lakers 10:35 Et 1.5 Units
Houston 100 LA Lakers 92 Winner
We're looking for Houston to pick uhere where they left off in Portland on the defensive end. They held the Blazers to just 87 ppg (avg). This is Houston's game and if they want to have a chance at getting past LA, they must slow the game down. The Rockets look to set the tone of the series tonight.....
All Basketball Results: Since 2/15/2009 (NBA All Star Break)
PRESENT - 5/05/2009
5/04/2009 - 4/18/2009
4/17/2009 - 3/16/2009
3/15/2009 - 2/15/2009