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2011 NFL Daily Report Results

87-78-6  -5.47 Units (Volume: 316.25 Units)
Complete Game By Game details as delivered to all clients posted below.


Sunday 02/05: -1.18 Units (Volume 5.00 Units)

Super Bowl XLVI
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

New England (ML) -145 / NY Giants 6:30 ET 2.00 Units
New England 17 NY Giants 21 Lose

Under 53.5 NY Giants / New England 2.00 Units
NY Giants 21 New England 17 Winner


Alternate Line Play

New England -10.5 (+285) / NYG 1.00 Unit
New England 17 NY Giants 21 Lose

Plenty of hype surrounding the Giants during the 2 week waiting period. And rightfully so! It is usually the team that gets hot at the right time that wins the Super Bowl, and NY has done just that. The Giants are on a 5-0 SU & ATS run which started back on Christmas Eve beating the Jets (29-14) and culminated in San Francisco a month later (1/22) with the road win (20-17) over the slightly favored Niners. New York outscored their opponents by a total of 141-67 (28-13 avg) during their last 5 games.

OK, fine, so the Giants are red hot... SO WHAT?? The Patriots aren't? New England has won 10 straight (6-4 ATS) with their last loss coming at the hands of these Giants in Foxboro on 11/6. After that game the Giants went on to lose 4 straight by a combined score of 89-131 (22-33 avg.) including a beat down of the "mighty" NY defense by Drew Brees for 49 points (you have to figure the Pats coaching staff has worn out the Saints - Giants film by now!!).

When these teams met in the Super Bowl 4 years ago, the line you'll recall was NE -12... 9 points more than it is today. Sure, NY won the game outright and they are hot right now, but to be able to get the Patriots at this price (-2.5 on the point spread) creates huge value. We don't see the validity of the huge move. We figure the correct line here is NE -6 or -6.5. As for the total, it's about the same as last time. We feel the same result this time around with both defenses stepping up.

Also factor in the motivational aspect. This is a HUGE revenge game for the Patriots. Not only did they lose the Super Bowl to these Giants, but it ruined their bid for a perfect season, something that hasn't happened in 40 years and may never again. The Packers looked as if they were well on their way this year but ran into a buzz saw called the Giants.

Also remember, the Giants limped into the playoffs with a 9-7 record. New England cruised into the playoffs. The Giants are playing way over their heads right now. We look for Brady & Company to win today going away and covering the -12 number hung 4 years ago. We're playing the game on the ML (-145) simply for value purposes. If you lay the -2.5, you have to lay -125 anyway, so for just 20 cents more we get them at a pick. We also are putting a unit on the alternate line of NE -10.5 (+285), so with a blowout, we more than make up for the -145 lay. As it stands, we're risking a total of 5 Units with a possible upside of +6.05 Units. And if we don't win our Alternate Line play, we still stand to win +2.19 Units.

Good luck and enjoy the game! -END


Sunday 01/22: -2.18 Units (Volume 6.00 Units)

Baltimore +7 / New England 3:00 2.00 Units
Baltimore 20 New England 23 Winner

San Francisco -2 / NY Giants 6:30 ET 4.00 Units (Double Play)
San Francisco 17 NY Giants 20 Lose


Sunday 01/15: +5.28 Units (Volume 10.00 Units)

NY Giants +7.5 / Green Bay 4:30 ET 4.00 Units (Double Play)
NY Giants 37 Green Bay 20 Winner

Under 54 NY Giants / Green Bay 2.00 Units
NY Giants 37 Green Bay 20 Lose

Oh it's so easy to justify a Green Bay play here. The line is only -7.5, just a half point higher than the Packers were laying in New Jersey 6 weeks ago (You'll remember that the Giants nearly pulled out the road win losing 35-38). But the general public thinking is that a Green Bay play this time is giving you value because of that close call, and the fact that New York are winners of 4 of their last 5 including their Wildcard domination of Atlanta last week, beating their cross town rivals easily (29-14), and beating division rivals Dallas twice since 12/11. So what seems to happen in a situation like this is that the general consensus is to try and find a reason to discount all NY has going for them to pave the way for the player to bet on his darling Packers... the reigning Super Bowl champs who came very close to perfect regular season... An offense that can seemingly score at will putting up 40+ six times this season and 30+ five times. So to be able to get this "safe" position on such a reliable team looks like stealing on the surface. I mean out of the Packers 8 home games this season they were double digit chalk 6 times, with the 2 odd times being the first game of the season vs the Saints (-4.5) and the last game of the season vs the Lions (+6.5) due to resting starters with nothing to play for (and Green Bay still won 45-41 behind back-up QB Matt Flynn (31/44 480 yards & 6 TD's). "So are you kidding me...? I just gotta lay -7.5 with this offensive machine called the Packers...??" But before getting in line for that free money, understand a few things. First, can Green Bay destroy the Giants? Absolutely, of course they can. We've seen it too many times from Green Bay but realize that this is playoff football. Teams are 2 wins away from going to the Super Bowl, and defense wins championships. If there's ever been a team that fits that motto it's the Giants. Remember their unlikely Super Bowl win in the 2007-08 season. How'd they do it? By holding their four playoff opponents to a total of 65 points including Green Bay to 20 (23-20) and the high flying Patriots to just 14 in the Super Bowl (17-14). So instead of trying to create reasons as to why Green Bay is a safe bet, look at solid history behind a winning organization who wins the tough way... by stopping the other guy. -END


Under 37 Houston / Baltimore 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Houston 13 Baltimore 20 Winner

Teaser: Baltimore -1.5 & Under 43 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Baltimore 20Houston 3 Winner

Another good game to tease as we are now geting the Ravens at -1.5 which is extracting all the value out of these six points since the -1.5 points is not likely to factor into the outcome. And we're also getting he total here up to 43 which is real big since this number should be in the 35 range to begin with. What's driving this total are the offensive efforts thus far in the playoffs. 5 of 6 overs to sart. But reality is that earlier scores by other teams have no bearing on today's game. -END


Saturday 01/14: -0.52 Units (Volume 8.00 Units)

New England -13.5 (-115) / Denver 8:00 ET 4.00 Units (Double Play)
New England 45 Denver 10 Winner

Under 46.5 New Orleans / San Francisco 4:30 ET 2.00 Units
New Orleans 32 San Francisco 36 Lose

Teaser: San Francisco +9.5 & Under 52.5 2.00 Units
San Francisco 36 New Orleans 32 Lose
Not a big fan of teasers in general, but this is a spot where we feel we're getting sufficient value as we're passing over four key numbers on the side portion of the teaser (4. 6, 7 & 9) AND we're raising the total into another level (52.5). We're now a winner with common scores such as 27-23, 28-24, 28-21, etc. -END


Sunday 01/08: -8.00 Units (Volume 8.00 Units)

Atlanta +3 / NY Giants 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 2 NY Giants 24 Lose

Under 34 Pittsburgh / Denver 2.00 Units
Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 Lose

Parlay: Pittsburgh (ML) -380 & Under 34 Risk 2.00 Units to win 2.82 Units
Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 Lose

Teaser: Pittsburgh -3 & Under 40 Risk 2.00 Units to win 1.82 Units
Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 Lose

Our main play here is the Under (34) which makes it tough to also lay -9 points with the Steelers since 11 Denver points is the limit to win both (which really means 10 points since 11 is not a practical score). By playing as outlined here, we re risking a total of 6.00 Units with a max return of +6.46 Units AND we raised the Denver point allotment to 14.

4 of the 6 Units risked is on Under 34 (2 Units straight & and the other 2 Units is parlayed to Pittsburgh on the ML. We're getting +1.41 on those 2 Units as opposed to laying -1.10 which equates to about 60% more profit (+2.82 Units as opposed to +1.82 Units that a 2 Unit straight Under 34 play would yield). The other 2 Units is teased raising the total to Under 40 while lowering Pittsburgh's lay to -3.

We fully expect the Steeler defense to have a huge day against Tim Tebow. There is plenty of film on Tebow by now and you can be sure that Pittsburgh will be able to keep the rookie quarterback in the pocket taking away his dangerous mobility. And with Big Ben not so mobile, expect a predominate run game from the Steelers today as they look to keep the Broncos defense on the field as long as possible.
So as long as Pittsburgh wins (just outright), our 4 Unit Under risk will yield +4.64 Units, and add to that another +1.82 Units with the Steelers winning by at least 4 (teaser). -END


Saturday 01/07: -7.25Units (Volume 7.25)

Cincinnati +4 / Houston 4:30 ET 1.25 Units
Cincinnati 10 Houston 31 Lose

Under 60 Detroit / New Orleans 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 Lose

Detroit +10.5 / New Orleans 8:00 ET 4.00 Units
Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 Lose


Sunday 01/01: +5.00 Units  (Volume 9.50)

Under 41.5 Detroit / Green Bay 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Detroit 41 Green Bay 45 Lose

Baltimore -2 / Cincinnati 4:15 ET 1.25 Units
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 16 Winner

Under 38 Baltimore / Cincinnati 4;15 ET 1.25 Units
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 16Lose

NY Jets +3 (-120) / Miami 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
NY Jets 17 Miami 19 Winner

New England -10 / Buffalo 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
New England 49 Buffalo 21 Winner

Under 48 Dallas / NY Giants 8:30 ET 2.00 Units
Dallas 14 NY Giants 31 Winner

Parlay: NY Giants (ML) -170) & Under 48 Risk 1.00 Unit to win 2.03 Units
NY Giants 31 Dallas 14 Winner

We're at risk for a total of 3 Units on the Under tonight with our payout position diversified with a money line play on the Giants. With the Under cashing, we are guaranteed a profit of 0.82/Unit, and with a Giants straight up win, our win increases to +3.84 Units.

-END


Monday 12/26: -2.00 Units  (Volume 2.00)

Under 53 Atlanta / New Orleans 8:30 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 16 New Orleans 45 Lose


Sunday 12/25: -2.00 Units  (Volume 2.00)

Chicago +13 / Green Bay 8:30 ET 2.00 Units
Chicago 21 Green Bay 35 Lose


Saturday 12/24: +3.90 Units  (Volume 9.00)

Under 42 Oakland / Kansas City 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Oakland 16 Kansas City 13 Winner

Buffalo +3 / Denver 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Buffalo 40 Denver 14 Winner

Under 39.5  Jacksonville / Tennessee 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Jacksonville 17 Tennesee 23 Lose

NY Giants +3 / NY Jets 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
NY Giants 29 NY Jets 14 Winner

St. Louis +10 / Pittsburgh 1:00 ET 1.00 Unit
St. Louis 0 Pittsburgh 27 Lose

Detroit -1 / San Diego 4:05 ET 2.00 Units
Detroit 38 San Diego 10 Winner


Monday 12/19: +1.82 Units  (Volume 2.00)

San Francisco -2.5 / Pittsburgh  8:35 ET 2.00 Units
San Francisco 20 Pittsburgh 3 Winner


Sunday 12/18: +7.74 Units  (Volume 8.50)

Over 35 Seattle / Chicago 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Seattle 38 Chicago 14 Winner

Carolina +6 / Houston 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Carolina 28 Houston 13 Winner

Under 39 Cincinnati / St. Louis 1:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Cincinnati 20 St Louis 13 Winner

Philadelphia -3 / NY Jets 4:15 ET 2.00 Units
Philadelphia 45 NY Jets 19 Winner 

Cleveland +6.5 / Arizona 4:15 ET 2.00 Units
Cleveland 17 Arizona 20 Winner


Thursday 12/15: -0.18 Units  (Volume 4.00)

Atlanta -13.5 / Jacksonville 8:25 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 41 Jacksonville 14 Winner

Under 42 Atlanta / Jacksonville 2.00 Units
Atlanta 41 Jacksonville 14 Lose

At a glance, this seems like the perfect spot for this "live" dog to cash. Atalanta coming off the tough road win at Carolina Sunday with very little prep time this week for the lowly Jags at home, and another road game at New Orleans on deck next week. Not to mention Coach Smith's chest pains on Sunday which sent him to the hospital. And mixed into this all is the holiday season (remember, football players are also human beings with families & children).

But wait... not so fast. One thing to remember is that winning post-season football is achieved not always by the teams with the best records, but rather by teams peaking at the right time. And this Falcon team we feel is doing just that. After starting the season 2-4, the Falcons have managed to go 6-2 since getting them right smack in the wild card hunt at 8-5. And both of those recent losses were by just 7 & 3 points (10-17 @ Houston and 23-26 to the Saints). So with the South being pretty much sewed up by the Saints, Atlanta must get to the post season via a wild card, so there really is no room for error in a game they're supposed to win. We look for Atlanta to absolutely roll past this Jaguars team tonight. Remember, Jacksonville scored 41 last week (over triple their season average up to that point). Look for this poor offense to get back to their level tonight with a single digit score while the Falcons contiune their tear...

Note: Due to the double digit lay here, this is nt a good spot to parlay this side & total since in order to win both, Atlanta must keep Jax under 14 points. We do think they will, but there's simply no value in a parlay here. -END


Monday 12/11: -4.00 Units  (Volume 4.00)

St. Louis +9.5 / Seattle 8:30 ET 2.00 Units
St. Louis 13 Seattle 30 Lose

2 Team 6 Point Teaser:
St. Louis +15.5 & Over 32 2.00 Units
St. Louis 13 Seattle 30 Lose


Sunday 12/11: -7.15 Units  (Volume 14.50)

Houston (ML) +120 / Cincinnati 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Houston 20 Cincinnati 19 Winner

Oakland +11.5 / Green Bay 4:15 ET 4.00 Units
Oakland 16 Green Bay 46 Lose

Kansas City +10.5 / NY Jets 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Kanss City 10 NY Jets 37 Lose

Detroit -11 / Minnesota 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Detroit 34 Minnesota 28 Lose

Tennessee +3.5 (-115) / New Orleans 1:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Tennessee 17 New Orleans 22 Lose

Jacksonville (ML) +130 / Tampa Bay 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Jacksonville 41 Tampa Bay 14 Winner

Over 35.5 Chicago / Denver 4:05 ET 1.50 Units
Chicago 10 Denver 13 Lose

Under 50.5 NY Giants / Dallas 8:30 ET 2.00 Units*
NY Giants 37 Dallas 34 Lose


Thursday 12/8: -3.00 Units  (Volume 3.00)

Over 40 Cleveland / Pittsburgh 8:25 ET 2.00 Units
Cleveland 3 Pittsburgh 14 Lose

Two Team 6 Point Teaser: Cleveland +20 & Over 34  1.00 Units
Cleveland 3 Pittsburgh 14 Lose

This teaser has tremendous value. The Browns can score as little as 7 points here WITHOUT losing (Pittsburgh 27-7 would be 2 Pushes resulting in no action). The Steelers are in a very vulnerable scheduling spot as they're coming off of a heavy dose of the pesky Bengals over the last 3 weeks beating them both times (11/13 24-17 and this past Sunday, 12/4 35-7) Sandwiched in between those two big divisional games was a lame showing on Sunday Night Football on 11/27 as the Steelers barely beat the Chiefs (13-9 as -10.5 road chalk).

We just can't pull the trigger here with the underdog Browns as they're just too bad of a team whereas this Pittsburgh team could wind up mauling them by accident, but we feel the game may very well come down to a back door cover possibility down the stretch... NOT where we want our money!! So instead we're going to use our reasoning and make the Over our main play. After holding opponents to a total of 33 points over the last 3 games, we feel it'll be the Steelers defense to be the unit to most likely be lax here, especially with a trip to San Francisco on deck a week from Sunday. -END


Monday 12/5: -3.00 Units  (Volume 3.00)

Jacksonville +3 (Even) / San Diego 8:35 ET 2.00 Units
Jacksonville 14 San Diego 38 Lose

Special Parlay: Risk 1.00 Unit to win 1.82 Units
Jacksonville +4.5 (-145: Buy 1.5 points) & Over 37 (-150: Buy 2 points)
Jacksonville 14 San Diego 38 Lose

First, before the reasoning behind our plays, here's a bit of a value/math lesson. To buy points in this parlay as instructed, we're creating a mini teaser. We're maxing out our extra points while getting twice the payout of a traditional 6 point teaser (you'd get just +0.91 units for a 1 unit risk with a teaser as opposed to the +1.82 units we stand to make here). So now we're getting +4.5 points which passes over key numbers of 3 & 4, and on the total side of our parlay we're getting Under 37, the "keyest" number for NFL totals. This is enough line variance for us to warrant getting twice the price of a 6 point teaser while giving up just 30% of a traditional 2 team parlay (+1.82 units as opposed to +2.64 units a parlay would pay).

Write-up:
Not the most desired match up for the networks and fans tonight on the grand Monday Night NFL Stage, but we feel we have a very favorable position here. San Diego is holding on to their playoff hopes due to the awful play in the AFC West, and they have the betting public buying right in to their pipe dream. On the other hand, you have a Jaguar team with big time shake ups going on from the firing of HC Jack Del Rio down to the possible sale of the team. We strongly feel that given the entire circumstances surrounding both of these troubled organizations that the wrong team is favored tonight. Whenever you can get points at home in the NFL with a better defense, you're on the right track. Don't get so caught up in the fact that the Jags are scoring just 12.4 ppg... remember they're only giving up 18.2. A bad offense will correct itself much sooner than a good defense will fall apart. And conversely, a bad defense doesn't fix itself over night... the Chargers are giving up 25 ppg (28 ppg on the road). Added to our overall thinking is the fact that deep down, San Diego has to know they're not making the playoffs. After 6 straight losses, especially with some very winnable games along the way, how much gas can this team have left in the tank....? Running on fumes is our thought. -END


Sunday 12/4: +5.52 Units  (Volume 10.25)

Under 54.5 Detroit / New Orleans 8:30 ET 2.00 Units
Detroit 17 New Orleans 31 Winner

Under 36 Kansas City / Chicago 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Kansas City 10 Chicago 3 Winner

Miami -3 (-120) / Oakland 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Miami 34 Oakland 14 Winner

Over 43 Oakland / Miami 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Oakland 14 Miami 34 Winner

Tampa Bay +1 / Carolina 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Tampa Bay 19 Carolina 38Lose

Indianapolis +20.5 / New England 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Indianapolis 24 New England 31 Winner
This number has gotten a bit out of hand. Solid past ATS history that simply can't be ignored. NFL dogs of 17 points or more are 19-4-1 ATS over the last 9 years. Realize that over 9 years in the NFL there have been about 2300 games played, so this ballooned point spread phenomenon only occurs about once every 100 games! And as it should. No matter what, these are NFL teams... professional athletes. Nearly 3 TD's is way too much to be laying under any circumstances at this level. It's no coincidence that dogs in this spot almost always cover, it's because of public perception, the line maker has no choice but to set a ballooned line. After all, it's the betting public playing a huge role in the line.

Can't see the Pats putting forth the effort it takes to cover 3 TD's here, especially in December. This is the time of the year when teams, especially playoff bound teams, are trying to stay and/or get healthy. Don't be surprised if you see Brady getting most of the day off with a lead giving backups Hoyer and Mallet some work.  -END


Thursday 12/1:  -2.00 Units  (Volume 2.00)

Under 43.5 Philadelphia / Seattle 8:25 ET 2.00 Units
Philadelphia 14 Seattle 31 Lose


Monday 11/28:  +1.82 Units  (Volume 2.00)

Over 51 NY Giants / New Orleans 8:35 ET 2.00 Units
NY Giants 24 New Orleans 49 Winner


Sunday 11/27:  -3.60 Units  (Volume 11.25)

Cleveland +7 / Cincinnati 1:00 ET 1.50 Unit
Cleveland 20 Cincinnati 23 Winner

Jacksonville +6 / Houston 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Jacksonville 13 Houston 20 Lose

Under 44 Minnesota / Atlanta 1:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Minnesota 14 Atlanta 24 Winner

Over 37.5 Washington / Seattle 4:05 ET 1.50 Units
Washington 23 Seattle 17 Winner

Philadelphia +3 / New England 4:15 ET 2.00 Units
Philadelphia 20 New England 38 Lose

Parlay: Pittsburgh (ML) -600 & Over 40 (-150: buy 2 points) Risk 4.00 Units to win 3.76 Units
Pittsburgh 13 Kansas City 9 Lose

Special note: If you can't play parlays as structured here, just play Over 42 (the real line) for 4.00 Units. Over is our main play.

Before we go on to our write-up of this Sunday night game, please understand exactly what we're doing with this parlay position. The risk reward is just about exactly that of a normal 11:10 proposition which we lay every day when betting against the spread (risk 1 unit to win 0.91/unit). So to get a free 2 extra points in the total (which allows us to cross over the key number of 41), the Steelers just need to win the game. That is what it all boils down to... a simple trade off in which we feel we're getting the better of the deal. And ironically if you were to tease the Steelers and Over, you'd get lines of -4.5 & 36 (6 points on each the side & total)... EXACTLY what we're getting only we're getting 10.5 points on the side and just 2points on the total, with the same pay out.

Game Write-up:
No way we can lay the wood with the Steelers in this spot, and there's no way we can take a horrible home dog like the Chiefs with an inexperienced QB. Pittsburgh is sandwiched in between 2 slices of Bengals as the played their division rivals on 11/13 (the week before their bye) and will face them again a week from today. The North is a very tight race, so we can't see the Steelers totally looking past these lowly Chiefs, but we can certainly see them not putting forth the effort it takes to cover double digits in the NFL. And the main area which we expect to be a bit lax would be the defense (just what we need to happen for our over to cash). -END


Thursday 11/24:  +3.02 Units  (Volume 8.00)

Baltimore -3 (-125) / San Francisco 8:20 ET 4.00 Units
Baltimore 16 San rancisc 6 Winner
The Niners are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS on east coast trips this season (not to mention 9-0-1 ATS overall). Very tough to win on the road in the NFL but add to that a short week against an opponent they rarely face and the fact that San Fran really doesn't need this game as they have all but sewn up the West. Had they not had the one loss back on week two against Dallas, we may have stayed away here citing perfect season motivation. Baltimore on the other hand needs this game big time as they're in a dog fight with the Steelers for the North. After putting away division rival Cincinnati on Sunday, Baltimore now has a very legit shot at running the table after tonight with Cleveland on deck next, then Indy, SD, Cleveland again before finishing the season with the Bengals. -END

Under 55 Green Bay / Detroit 12:30 ET 2.00 Units
Green Bay 27 Detroit 15 Winner

Dallas -7 / Miami 4:15 ET 2.00 Units
Dallas 20 Miami 19 Lose


Monday 11/21:  -4.00 Units  (Volume 4.00)

Kansas City +17 / New England 8:30 ET 2.00 Units
Kansas City 3 New England 34 Lose

Over 47 Kansas City / New England 2.00 Units
Kansas City 3 New England 34 Lose

Magic number 16. With 16 Chiefs points scored we are guaranteed at least a split. Can't see the Pats defense showing much interest here after three tough games L3 weeks (@ Pittsburgh, NYG & @ NY Jets) and a trip to Philly next (travelling off a short week). Have to expect New England to be focused here (in a classic "look ahead" spot) since they already have 4 losses, but -17 is a huge number in the NFL. Leaves us with many ways to cover, but as stated what our whole position tonight is based on is the fact that all we need are 16 KC points and we're basically free rolling as our exposure is reduced to just the juice (0.18/Unit) with a possible upside of +3.64 Units. -END


Sunday 11/20:  +1.40 Units  (Volume 11.50)

Baltimore -7 (even) / Cincinnti 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Baltimore 31 Cincinnati 24 PUSH

Carolina +7 / Detroit 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Carolina 35 Detroit 49 Lose

Tampa Bay +13.5 / Green Bay 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Tampa Bay 26 Green Bay 35 Winner

Under 48.5 Tampa Bay / Green Bay 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Tampa Bay 26 Green Bay 35 Lose

Under 41 Arizona / San Francisco 4:05 ET 1.25 Units
Arizona 7 San Francisco 23 Winner

Chicago -4 / San Diego 4:15 ET 4.00 Units
Chicago 31 San Diego 20 Winner
Yes, we are risking 4.00 Units on this Daily Report release, twice that of the hightest rated 2 Unit ranking for these plays. That's how much we like the Bears this afternoon.

Now for the "why":

Does anyone remember the last time these two quarterbacks met? Probably not for most of you. It was a Sunday night game on 12/28/2008 when the 7-8 Chargers and 8-7 Broncos met in the final game of the regular season for a "winner take all" showdown. Yes, that's how weak the AFC west was 3 seasons ago, and since San Diego held the tie-breakers, they would make the post season with a win and an 8-8 record.

The Chargers went on to win that game in blowout fashion (52-21) as 7 point home chalk, and if that's where the story ended, this release would not be made by us today. But towards the end of the game, with the fate already being long decided, a jublient Phillip Rivers was on the side line acting like we've NEVER seen a professional athlete act before, and probably never will. Rivers was actually laughing at Jay Cutler while waving bye bye to his opposing QB across the field in an incredibly sarcastic manner. If you remember this game, you'll remember Rivers ultra un-sportsmanlike behavior. You can be sure that Cutler hasn't forgotten and you can also be sure he's shared this story with a Bears defensive lineman or two during this weeks practices.

Karma's a Mother F$&%#$ Phillip, and it looks as if it has been steadily catching up to you since that late December night three years ago in San Diego. After making the playoffs in that 08-09 season the Chargers were knocked out in the Divisional game @ Pittsburgh. The following year you'll recall Rivers and San Diego went 13-3 including winning their last 11 regular season game only to go out once again in the first round, this time to the Jts (14-17). And last year they missed the post season all together just as seems to be the case this year.

San Diego is a team with many problems this season as they sit at 4-5 and are heading into Chicago to play a Bears team gaining momentum each week (4-0 SU & ATS L4 weeks) with the always tough Jay Cutler at the helm looking for payback from the school bully on that December night so long ago.  -END


Thursday 11/17:  -2.00 Units  (Volume 1.50)

NY Jets -6 / Denver 8:20 ET 2.00 Units
NY Jets 13 Denver 17 Lose
Under "normal" circumstances, we would be all over the dog here in this spot. Jets travelling off a short week after stinking up the joint at home Sunday night in front of the home crowd, and looking forward to another division rival next week (Buffalo). But with already 4 losses, Jets can't afford to slack at all. We're not convinced that there's something that wrong with this NY team that they can't go into Denver and put a stop to the nonsense Tim Tebow and company are calling an NFL offense. It may have gotten Tebow by with the Gators, but it's time for reality here. We look for a decisive win for the road team as they improve to 6-4 with the defense stepping up big.


Monday 11/14:  -2.00 Units  (Volume 2.00)

Teaser: Minnesota +19 / Green Bay & Under 56 8:35 ET 2.00 Unit
Minnesota 7 Green Bay 45 Lose
Don't like tonight's game at as we feel both the side (GB -13) & total (50) are right where they should be. This is the time of the season where the linemakers numbers are razor sharp This Packer team and their ability to score seemingly at will makes taking "just 13" very scary. Aaron Rodgers has developed into one of the best to ever play his position and is certain to break many records before his time in the league is up. We simply cannot bet against him (vs the normal spread) Tonight's game is the type of match up where it may very well come down to a backdoor cover shot for the Vikings (+13) at the end. That IS NOT where we want our money. But taking +19 obviously greatly increases our chances of covering, amd a Vikings +19 cover greatly increases the chance of the game staying Under the FAT 56. Nice value spot with this teaser.


Sunday 11/13:  -4.17 Units  (Volume 11.75)

Cincinnati +4 / Pittsburgh 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Cincinnati 17 Pittsburgh 24 Lose

Under 45.5 Houston / Tampa Bay 1:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Houston 37 Tampa Bay9 Lose

Over 46.5 Tennessee / Carolina 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Tennessee 30 Carolina 3 Lose

Chicago -2.5 (-115) / Detroit 4:15 ET 2.00 Units
Chicago 37 Detroit 13 Winner

Seattle +7 / Baltimore 4:05 ET 2.00 Units
Seattle 22 BAltimore 17 Winner

NY Giants +4 / San Francisco 4:15 ET 2.00  Units
NY Giants 20 San Francisco 27 Lose

Under 47.5 New England / NY Jets 8:30 ET 2.00 Units
New England 37 NY Jets 16 Lose


Thursday 11/10:  -2.00 Units  (Volume 2.00)

San Diego -7 / Oakland 8:20 ET 2.00 Units
San Diego 17 Oakland 24 Lose


Monday 11/7:  +0.82 Units  (Volume 3.00)

Chicago +8 / Philadelphia 8:35 ET 2.00 Units
Chicago 30 Phildelphia 24 Winner

2 Team 6 Point Teaser:
Chicago +14 & Under 53 1.00 Unit
Chicago 30 Phildelphia 24 Lose


Sunday 11/6:  -2.74 Units  (Volume 8.00)

Miami +4 / Kansas City 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Miami 31 Kansas City 3 Winner

Washington +5 / San Francisco 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Washington 11 San Francisco 19 Lose

St. Louis +3 (-120) / Arizona 4:15 ET 2.00 Units
St. Louis 13 Arizona 19 Lose

Under 51 NY Giants / New England 4:15 ET 1.25 Units
NY Giants 24 New Englang 20 Winner

San Diego +6 / Green Bay 4:15 ET 2.00 Units
San Diego 38 Green Bay 45 Lose


Monday 10/31:  -2.50 Units (Volume 2.50)

San Diego -3 / Kansas City 8:35 ET 2.00 Units
San Diego 20 Kansas City 20 Lose

Parlay: San Diego (ML) -165 & Over 44.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to Win 1.02 Units
San Diego 20 Kansas City 20 Lose


Sunday 10/30:  +6.22 Units (Volume 8.25)

Jacksonville +10 / Houston 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Jacksonville 14 Houston 24 PUSH

Minnesota +3.5 (-120) / Carolina 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Minnesota 24 Carolina 21 Winner

St. Louis +13.5 / New Orleans 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
St. Louis 31 New Orleans 21 Winner

Over 43 Arizona / Baltimore 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Arizona 27 Baltimore 30 Winner

Pittsburgh +3 / New England 4:15 ET 2.00 Units
Pittsburgh 25 New England 17 Winner


Monday 10/24: +3.14 Units (Volume 2.50)

Under 39 Baltimore / Jacksonville 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Baltimore 7 Jacksomville 12 Winner

Parlay: Under 39 & Jacksonville +10 Risk 0.50/Unit to win 1.32 Units
Jacksonville 12 Baltimore 7 Winner

Main play here is the Under as we're at risk for a total of 2.50 Units on this Monday night total. The Ravens defense is their bread and butter and we feel this unit will be looking to flex their muscle on national TV tonight. We're not crazy about Jacksonville in this spot as we feel it may very well come down to a "back door" cover situation... not a good spot for our money, but by the same token we can't justify such a hefty lay on the road with a team that very well be looking right past this opponent... An Under cash here will guarantee a +1.32 Unit profit and adding a Jaguar cover to it gives us a hefty +3.14 Unit profit for our 2.50 Unit risk. -END


Sunday 10/23: +0.21 Units (Volume 7.00)

Cleveland -3 / Seattle 1:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Cleveland 6 Seattle 3 PUSH

Over 44 Houston / Tennessee 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Houston 41 Tennessee 7 Winner

Atlanta +5 / Detroit 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 23 Detroit 16 Winner

Arizona +4 / Pittsburgh 4:05 ET 1.50 Units
Arizona 20 Pittsburgh 32 Lose

St. Louis +14 / Dallas 4:15 ET 1.25 Units
St. Louis 7 Dallas 34 Lose


Monday 10/17: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00)

Under 41.5 Miami / NY Jets 8:35 ET 2.00 Units
Miami 6 NY Jets 24 Winner


Sunday 10/16: -0.97 Units (Volume 9.75)

St. Louis +14.5 / Green Bay 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
St. Louis 3 Green Bay 24 Lose

Washington +3 / Philadelphia 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Washington 13 Philadelphia 20 Lose

Under 46 San Francisco / Detroit 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
San Francisco 25 Detroit 19 Winner

Atlanta -3.5 (even) / Carolina 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Atlanta 31 Carolina 17 Winner

Houston +7 / Baltimore 4:05 ET 1.25 Units
Houston 14 Baltimore 29 Lose

Dallas +6.5 / New England 4:15 ET 1.25 Units
Dallas 16 New England 20 Winner


Monday 10/10:+1.82 Units (Volume 2.00)

Under 47 Chicago / Detroit 8:35 ET 2.00 Units
Chicago 13 Detroit 24 Winner


Sunday 10/09: -1.08 Units (Volume 8.25)

New Orleans -6.5 / Carolina 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
New Orleans 30 Carolina 27 Lose

Tennesee +3.5 / Pittsburgh 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Tennesee 17 Pittsburgh 38 Lose

Over 40 Tennesee / Pittsburgh 1:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Tennesee 17 Pittsburgh 38 Winner

Parlay: Tennessee (ML) +165 & Over 40 Risk 1.00 Unit to win 4.06 Units
Tennesee 17 Pittsburgh 38 Lose


Seattle +10 / NY Giants 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Seattle 36 NY Giants 25 Winner

New Engand -7 / NY Jets 4:15 ET 1.25 Units
New England 30 NY Jets 21 Winner


Monday 10/03: -2.50 Units (Volume 2.50)

Tampa Bay -10 / Indianapolis 8:35 ET 2.00 Units
Tampa Bay 24 Indianapolis 17 Lose

Parlay: Tampa Bay -10 & Under 40.5 Risk 0.5 Unit to Win 1.30 Units
Tampa Bay 24 Indianapolis 17 Lose

Bucs our main play here.. only half unit risk on the parlay... Tough to cover -10 AND have the game stay under 40.5 as Tampa has to hold the Colts to 15 points to win (26-15)... We're expecting absolutely NOTHING from Indy's new "Peyton-less" offense. Sure, we were on the Colts last week on national TV as they more than looked good (nearly beating the Steelers), but it was their defense that did it all. AND the fact that Pittsburgh was looking right past them with a date with Houston this week (which they wound up losing). This Colts defensive unit left their hearts and souls on the field at Lucas Oil Stadium to make sure they weren't embarrassed. There will be nothing left tonight. Reality must be setting in that without their general on the field and wearing pads, they may not win a game this season. We wouldn't be surprised at all with a shutout tonight down in south west Florida.... Don't be afraid of the double digit lay here... It's MORE than warranted. -END


Sunday 10/02: -2.74 Units (Volume 8.00)

St. Louis +3 / Washington 1:00 ET 1.25 Unit
St. Louis 10 Washington 17 Lose

Cincinnati +3 / Buffalo 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Cincinnati 23 Buffalo 20 Winner

Chicago -6.5 / Carolina 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Chicago 34 Carolina 29 Lose

Arizona +1.5 / NY Giants 4:05 ET 2.00 Units
Arizona 27 NY Giants 31 Lose

New England -6 / Oakland 4:15 ET 1.50 Units
New England 31 Oakland 19 Winner


Monday 09/26: +3.22 Units (Volume 2.50)

Under 45 Washington / Dallas 8:35 ET 2.00 Units
Washington 16 Dallas 18 Winner

Parlay: Washington +3.5 (-125) & Under 45 Risk Half Unit (0.5/Unit) to win 1.22 Units
Washington 16 Dallas 18 Winner

Main play is the Under tonight as we feel a more conservative game will be played, especially on the Dallas side. Romo is not even close to 100% so don't expect him to be hanging in the pocket waiting to get hit all night by a hungry Washington pass rush. Also, Washington's been running the ball nicely so far this season and we expect them to continue. As for the parlay, we feel these are two evenly matched teams, and with getting more than a FG (+3.5) creates a nice value spot. We're guaranteed a +1.32 Unit profit with the Under cashing, and a big +3.04 Units with the Skins also getting the cover. -END


Sunday 09/25: -0.60 Units (Volume 12.25)

Under 39 San Francisco / Cincinnati 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
San Francisco 13 Cincinnati 8 Winner

Miami -1 / Cleveland 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Miami 16 Cleveland 17 Lose

Minnesota +3 (even) / Detroit 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Minnesota 23 Detroit 26 PUSH

Jacksonville +3.5 (-115) / Carolina 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Jacksonville 10 Carolina 16 Lose

Under 42 Baltimore / St. Louis 4:05 ET 1.25 Units
Baltimore 37 St Louis 7 Lose

Under 43 Arizona / Seattle 4:15 ET 1.25 Units
Arizona 10 Seattle 13 Winner

Chicago +4.5 / Green Bay 4:15 ET 1.50 Units
Chicago 17 Green Bay 27 Lose

Indianpolis +11 / Pittsburgh 8:25 ET 2.00 Units
Indianapolis 20 Pittsburgh 23 Winner

Parlay: Indianapolis +11 & Over 38.5 Risk Half Unit (0.5) to win 1.30 Units
Indianapolis 20 Pittsburgh 23 Winner


Monday 09/19: +1.32 Units (Volume 3.00)

Under 44 St. Louis / NY Giants 8:35 ET 2.00 Unis
St. Louis 16 NY Giants 28 PUSH
Parlay: NY Giants (ML) (-320) & Under 45 (-130) (buy 1 point) Risk 1 Unit to win 1.32 Units
St. Louis 16 NY Giants 28 Winner

A note on our ML parlay position:
On the surface it may seem crazy to lay -320 with NY on the money line, but realize a couple of factors. The parlay payout is half that of a traditional 2 teamer which would net +2.64 Units as opposed to +1.32 Units, so we're only leaving behind 1.32 Units of potential profit which is well worth it considering the possibilities for winning that open up this way. It's tough to lay a TD when also needing an under. In this case NY would mathematically have to limit the Rams to no more than 17 points to be able to cash both (25-17) but since this is not a very likely final, (24-17 or 27-17 both would produce a push and a loss which means you'd only cash your ticket as a straight bet) so the number is realistically lower... By taking only half the parlay payout and needing the Giants to merely win the game and  buying the total to 45,  we now have finals of 21-20, 23-20, 23-21 and even 24-21 which will cash our ticket.  -END


Sunday 09/18: +0.14 Units (Volume 9.00)

Kansas City +9 / Detroit 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Kansas City 3 Detroit 48 Lose

Arizona +3.5 / Washington 1:00 ET 2.00 Units
Arizona 21 Washington 22 Winner

Minnesota -2 / Tampa Bay 1:00 ET 1.00 Units
Minnesota 20 Tampa Bay 24 Lose

Under 39.5 Cleveland / Indianapolis 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Cleveland 27 Indianapolis 19 Lose

San Francisco +3 / Dallas 4:05 ET 1.50 Unit
San Francisco 24 Dallas 27 PUSH

Under 48 Houston / Miami 4:15 ET 2.00 Units
Houston 23 Miami 13 Winner


Monday 09/12: -1.25 Units (Volume 1.25 Units)

Miami +7.5 / New England 7:00 ET 1.25 Units
Miami 24 New England 38 Winner


Sunday 09/11: -3.56 Units (Volume 10.25 Units)

Tampa Bay -1 / Detroit 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
Tampa Bay 20 Detroit 27 Lose

Buffalo +4.5 / Kansas City 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
Buffalo 41 Kansas Ciy 7 Winner

St. Louis +4 / Philadelphia 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
St. Louis 13 Philadelphia 31 Lose

Under 37.5 Tennessee / Jacksonville 1:00 ET 1.25 Unit
Tennessee 14 Jacksonville 16 Winner

NY Giants -1.5 / Washington 4:15 ET 1.25 Units
NY Giants 14 Washington 28 Lose

San Francisco -5.5 / Seattle 4:15 ET 1.00 Unit
San Francisco 33 Seattle Winner

NY Jets -6.5 / Dallas 8:25 ET 2.00 Units
NY Jets 27 Dallas 24 Lose

Parlay: NY Jets (ML) -280 & Under 41.5 Risk 0.5 /Unit to win 0.8/Unit
NY Jets 27 Dallas 24 Lose

Main play here is NY laying the -6.5 for 2 Units with just a half unit parlay on NY moneyline (-280) and the Under. We're guaranteed a +1.32 Unit profit with a Jets cover, and with the game also staying under it'll be a nice +2.62 Units... about double.  -END


Thursday 09/08: +1.74 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)

Green Bay -4.5 (-115) / New Orleans 8:30 ET 2.00 Units
Green Bay 42 New Orleans 34 Winner


Thursday 09/01: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.25 Units)

San Francisco +3 / San Diego 10:00 ET 2.00 Units
San Francisco 20 San Diego 17 Winner


Monday 08/29: +1.74 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)

NY Jets -3 (-115) / NY Giants 7:00 ET 2.00 Units
NY Jets 17 N Giantsaa 3 Winner


Sunday 08/27: -2.00 Units (Volume 3.00 Units)

Under 38.5 New Orleans / Oakland 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
New Orleans 40 Oakland 20 Lose


Saturday 08/27: +2.69 Units (Volume 3.00 Units)

Detroit +3.5 (-115) / New England 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Detroit 34 New England 10 Winner

Chicago +3 (-105)  / Tennessee 8:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Chicago 13 Tennessee 14 Winner


Friday 08/26: +1.32 Units (Volume 2.50 Units)

Indianapolis +9.5 / Green Bay 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Indinapolis 21 Green Bay 21 Winner
Parlay: Indianapolis +9.5 & Under 41 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.30 Units
Indinapolis 21 Green Bay 21 Lose


Thursday 08/25: -2.00 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)

Baltimore -3.5 / Washington 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Baltimore 34 Washington 31 Lose


Monday 08/22: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)

NY Giants -4.5 / Chicago 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
NY Giants 41 Chicago 13 Winner


Saturday 08/20: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)

Minnesota +3 / Seattle 10:00 ET 2.00 Units
Minnsota 20 Sattle 7 Winner


Thursday 08/18: +1.00 Units (Volume 3.00 Units)

Pittsburgh -3 (even) / Philadelphia 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Pittsburgh 24 Philadelphia 14 Wnner
Parlay: Pittsburgh (ML) -145 & Under 34.5 Risk 1.00 Unit to win 2.23 Units
Pittsburgh 24 Philadelphia 14 Lose


Monday 08/15: +1.82 Units (Volume 2.00 Units)

Houston -2.5 / NY Jets 8:00 ET 2.00 Units
Houston 20 NY Jets 16 Winner


Saturday 08/13: +0.91 Units (Volume 1.00 Units)

Carolina -2.5 / NY Giants 8:00 ET 1.00 Unit
Carolina 20  NY Giants 10 Winner


Thursday 08/11: +1.37 Units (Volume 1.50 Units)

Philadelphia -3 / Baltimore 7:30 ET 1.50 Units
Philadelphia 13 Baltimore 6 Winner